2 3 5 7 11 13 17 19 23 29 31 37 41 43 47 53 59 61 67 71 73 79 83 89 97 101 103 107 109 113 127 131 137 139 149

 Home, Baby! | RECYCLE BIN 2005 | RECYCLE BIN 2006 | RECYCLE BIN 2007 | RECYCLE BIN 2008

AREA 47

 

SECTION 97: RECYCLE BIN 2008

 

Other websites have ARCHIVES.

But until I get my act together,

All I've got is a Recycle Bin.

This is not "Trash,"

But rather items pulled off the Home Page

Which have not yet been Organized.

 

http://www.copyblogger.com/blog-forum/

The Perfect Pair:
3 Reasons Every Blogger Needs a Forum

When I started blogging on my own several months ago after leaving the magazine world, there were two platforms I knew I needed to get started: A blog and a forum. I learned from my previous blog for the magazine that the two platforms complement one another perfectly.

I think all bloggers should consider the benefits of having a forum linked to their blog. Here are three of the advantages I’ve found:

1. A forum is a breeding ground for ideas. To be an effective blogger, you need to know what people are chatting about to give them great content, answer their questions, and be of service. Tuning in to the chatter on a forum sparks ideas for blog posts.

For example, I knew from reading my forum threads that finding an agent was a huge concern, so I decided to start interviewing agents for my blog. The blog provides a desirable connection for my forum members, and the forum, in turn, gives the blog a built-in audience.

2. A forum fosters group dialogue. Sure, most blogs allow comments. But comments aren’t really a dialogue, they’re a response to a monologue. The blogger controls the flow of information on a blog. A forum is a far better platform for conversations and relationships to develop—and this is where community building really takes off.

3. A forum is a great place to find guest posters. This is the perfect venue to find people with compelling ideas and an engaging writing style to guest post on your blog.

I’ve had guest posts from my forum members almost since the start of my blog. One forum member posted a thread about getting duped by a shady self-publishing company. I knew that was perfect blog fodder and I asked this writer for a guest post, which he seemed happy to write for me.

Also recently, I asked several forum members to do guest posts on participating in NanoWriMo (National Novel Writing Month), an event that’s important to my community, but that I wasn’t participating in. These guest posts were especially well received and commented on. I think first-hand accounts always make for better blog posts than third-person pieces.

If you are interested in starting up your own forum, there are many platforms available including open source software like phpBB. I decided to go with VBulletin, which costs $180 to own outright, because I like the interface and it offers a subscription-based forum service that I’m going to use for classes and workshops.

Now, I’m not going to tell you that a forum is an easy thing to build and manage. In fact, if it seems like too much of a commitment, you may be better off frequenting a well-run forum that caters to your subject matter. A good forum requires almost-daily TLC.

But if you’re a blogger who wants to grow your community—once you do have your own forum, you’ll never want to be without one again.

--

http://www.rhymezone.com/

rhyming dictionary!

12/10/2008 7:13 AM

http://weburbanist.com/

15 of the World’s Most Amazing Houses

http://www.marijuana-uses.com/

Mr. X

By Carl Sagan

This account was written in 1969 for publication in Marihuana Reconsidered (1971). Sagan was in his mid-thirties at that time. He continued to use cannabis for the rest of his life.

It all began about ten years ago. I had reached a considerably more relaxed period in my life - a time when I had come to feel that there was more to living than science, a time of awakening of my social consciousness and amiability, a time when I was open to new experiences. I had become friendly with a group of people who occasionally smoked cannabis, irregularly, but with evident pleasure. Initially I was unwilling to partake, but the apparent euphoria that cannabis produced and the fact that there was no physiological addiction to the plant eventually persuaded me to try. My initial experiences were entirely disappointing; there was no effect at all, and I began to entertain a variety of hypotheses about cannabis being a placebo which worked by expectation and hyperventilation rather than by chemistry. After about five or six unsuccessful attempts, however, it happened. I was lying on my back in a friend's living room idly examining the pattern of shadows on the ceiling cast by a potted plant (not cannabis!). I suddenly realized that I was examining an intricately detailed miniature Volkswagen, distinctly outlined by the shadows. I was very skeptical at this perception, and tried to find inconsistencies between Volkswagens and what I viewed on the ceiling. But it was all there, down to hubcaps, license plate, chrome, and even the small handle used for opening the trunk. When I closed my eyes, I was stunned to find that there was a movie going on the inside of my eyelids. Flash . . . a simple country scene with red farmhouse, a blue sky, white clouds, yellow path meandering over green hills to the horizon. . . Flash . . . same scene, orange house, brown sky, red clouds, yellow path, violet fields . . . Flash . . . Flash . . . Flash. The flashes came about once a heartbeat. Each flash brought the same simple scene into view, but each time with a different set of colors . . . exquisitely deep hues, and astonishingly harmonious in their juxtaposition. Since then I have smoked occasionally and enjoyed it thoroughly. It amplifies torpid sensibilities and produces what to me are even more interesting effects, as I will explain shortly.

I can remember another early visual experience with cannabis, in which I viewed a candle flame and discovered in the heart of the flame, standing with magnificent indifference, the black-hatted and -cloaked Spanish gentleman who appears on the label of the Sandeman sherry bottle. Looking at fires when high, by the way, especially through one of those prism kaleidoscopes which image their surroundings, is an extraordinarily moving and beautiful experience.

I want to explain that at no time did I think these things 'really' were out there. I knew there was no Volkswagen on the ceiling and there was no Sandeman salamander man in the flame. I don't feel any contradiction in these experiences. There's a part of me making, creating the perceptions which in everyday life would be bizarre; there's another part of me which is a kind of observer. About half of the pleasure comes from the observer-part appreciating the work of the creator-part. I smile, or sometimes even laugh out loud at the pictures on the insides of my eyelids. In this sense, I suppose cannabis is psychotomimetic, but I find none of the panic or terror that accompanies some psychoses. Possibly this is because I know it's my own trip, and that I can come down rapidly any time I want to.

While my early perceptions were all visual, and curiously lacking in images of human beings, both of these items have changed over the intervening years. I find that today a single joint is enough to get me high. I test whether I'm high by closing my eyes and looking for the flashes. They come long before there are any alterations in my visual or other perceptions. I would guess this is a signal-to-noise problem, the visual noise level being very low with my eyes closed. Another interesting information-theoretical aspects is the prevalence - at least in my flashed images - of cartoons: just the outlines of figures, caricatures, not photographs. I think this is simply a matter of information compression; it would be impossible to grasp the total content of an image with the information content of an ordinary photograph, say 108 bits, in the fraction of a second which a flash occupies. And the flash experience is designed, if I may use that word, for instant appreciation. The artist and viewer are one. This is not to say that the images are not marvelously detailed and complex. I recently had an image in which two people were talking, and the words they were saying would form and disappear in yellow above their heads, at about a sentence per heartbeat. In this way it was possible to follow the conversation. At the same time an occasional word would appear in red letters among the yellows above their heads, perfectly in context with the conversation; but if one remembered these red words, they would enunciate a quite different set of statements, penetratingly critical of the conversation. The entire image set which I've outlined here, with I would say at least 100 yellow words and something like 10 red words, occurred in something under a minute.

The cannabis experience has greatly improved my appreciation for art, a subject which I had never much appreciated before. The understanding of the intent of the artist which I can achieve when high sometimes carries over to when I'm down. This is one of many human frontiers which cannabis has helped me traverse. There also have been some art-related insights - I don't know whether they are true or false, but they were fun to formulate. For example, I have spent some time high looking at the work of the Belgian surrealist Yves Tanguey. Some years later, I emerged from a long swim in the Caribbean and sank exhausted onto a beach formed from the erosion of a nearby coral reef. In idly examining the arcuate pastel-colored coral fragments which made up the beach, I saw before me a vast Tanguey painting. Perhaps Tanguey visited such a beach in his childhood.

A very similar improvement in my appreciation of music has occurred with cannabis. For the first time I have been able to hear the separate parts of a three-part harmony and the richness of the counterpoint. I have since discovered that professional musicians can quite easily keep many separate parts going simultaneously in their heads, but this was the first time for me. Again, the learning experience when high has at least to some extent carried over when I'm down. The enjoyment of food is amplified; tastes and aromas emerge that for some reason we ordinarily seem to be too busy to notice. I am able to give my full attention to the sensation. A potato will have a texture, a body, and taste like that of other potatoes, but much more so. Cannabis also enhances the enjoyment of sex - on the one hand it gives an exquisite sensitivity, but on the other hand it postpones orgasm: in part by distracting me with the profusion of image passing before my eyes. The actual duration of orgasm seems to lengthen greatly, but this may be the usual experience of time expansion which comes with cannabis smoking.

I do not consider myself a religious person in the usual sense, but there is a religious aspect to some highs. The heightened sensitivity in all areas gives me a feeling of communion with my surroundings, both animate and inanimate. Sometimes a kind of existential perception of the absurd comes over me and I see with awful certainty the hypocrisies and posturing of myself and my fellow men. And at other times, there is a different sense of the absurd, a playful and whimsical awareness. Both of these senses of the absurd can be communicated, and some of the most rewarding highs I've had have been in sharing talk and perceptions and humor. Cannabis brings us an awareness that we spend a lifetime being trained to overlook and forget and put out of our minds. A sense of what the world is really like can be maddening; cannabis has brought me some feelings for what it is like to be crazy, and how we use that word 'crazy' to avoid thinking about things that are too painful for us. In the Soviet Union political dissidents are routinely placed in insane asylums. The same kind of thing, a little more subtle perhaps, occurs here: 'did you hear what Lenny Bruce said yesterday? He must be crazy.' When high on cannabis I discovered that there's somebody inside in those people we call mad.

When I'm high I can penetrate into the past, recall childhood memories, friends, relatives, playthings, streets, smells, sounds, and tastes from a vanished era. I can reconstruct the actual occurrences in childhood events only half understood at the time. Many but not all my cannabis trips have somewhere in them a symbolism significant to me which I won't attempt to describe here, a kind of mandala embossed on the high. Free-associating to this mandala, both visually and as plays on words, has produced a very rich array of insights.

There is a myth about such highs: the user has an illusion of great insight, but it does not survive scrutiny in the morning. I am convinced that this is an error, and that the devastating insights achieved when high are real insights; the main problem is putting these insights in a form acceptable to the quite different self that we are when we're down the next day. Some of the hardest work I've ever done has been to put such insights down on tape or in writing. The problem is that ten even more interesting ideas or images have to be lost in the effort of recording one. It is easy to understand why someone might think it's a waste of effort going to all that trouble to set the thought down, a kind of intrusion of the Protestant Ethic. But since I live almost all my life down I've made the effort - successfully, I think. Incidentally, I find that reasonably good insights can be remembered the next day, but only if some effort has been made to set them down another way. If I write the insight down or tell it to someone, then I can remember it with no assistance the following morning; but if I merely say to myself that I must make an effort to remember, I never do.

I find that most of the insights I achieve when high are into social issues, an area of creative scholarship very different from the one I am generally known for. I can remember one occasion, taking a shower with my wife while high, in which I had an idea on the origins and invalidities of racism in terms of gaussian distribution curves. It was a point obvious in a way, but rarely talked about. I drew the curves in soap on the shower wall, and went to write the idea down. One idea led to another, and at the end of about an hour of extremely hard work I found I had written eleven short essays on a wide range of social, political, philosophical, and human biological topics. Because of problems of space, I can't go into the details of these essays, but from all external signs, such as public reactions and expert commentary, they seem to contain valid insights. I have used them in university commencement addresses, public lectures, and in my books.

But let me try to at least give the flavor of such an insight and its accompaniments. One night, high on cannabis, I was delving into my childhood, a little self-analysis, and making what seemed to me to be very good progress. I then paused and thought how extraordinary it was that Sigmund Freud, with no assistance from drugs, had been able to achieve his own remarkable self-analysis. But then it hit me like a thunderclap that this was wrong, that Freud had spent the decade before his self-analysis as an experimenter with and a proselytizer for cocaine; and it seemed to me very apparent that the genuine psychological insights that Freud brought to the world were at least in part derived from his drug experience. I have no idea whether this is in fact true, or whether the historians of Freud would agree with this interpretation, or even if such an idea has been published in the past, but it is an interesting hypothesis and one which passes first scrutiny in the world of the downs.

I can remember the night that I suddenly realized what it was like to be crazy, or nights when my feelings and perceptions were of a religious nature. I had a very accurate sense that these feelings and perceptions, written down casually, would not stand the usual critical scrutiny that is my stock in trade as a scientist. If I find in the morning a message from myself the night before informing me that there is a world around us which we barely sense, or that we can become one with the universe, or even that certain politicians are desperately frightened men, I may tend to disbelieve; but when I'm high I know about this disbelief. And so I have a tape in which I exhort myself to take such remarks seriously. I say 'Listen closely, you sonofabitch of the morning! This stuff is real!' I try to show that my mind is working clearly; I recall the name of a high school acquaintance I have not thought of in thirty years; I describe the color, typography, and format of a book in another room and these memories do pass critical scrutiny in the morning. I am convinced that there are genuine and valid levels of perception available with cannabis (and probably with other drugs) which are, through the defects of our society and our educational system, unavailable to us without such drugs. Such a remark applies not only to self-awareness and to intellectual pursuits, but also to perceptions of real people, a vastly enhanced sensitivity to facial expression, intonations, and choice of words which sometimes yields a rapport so close it's as if two people are reading each other's minds.

Cannabis enables nonmusicians to know a little about what it is like to be a musician, and nonartists to grasp the joys of art. But I am neither an artist nor a musician. What about my own scientific work? While I find a curious disinclination to think of my professional concerns when high - the attractive intellectual adventures always seem to be in every other area - I have made a conscious effort to think of a few particularly difficult current problems in my field when high. It works, at least to a degree. I find I can bring to bear, for example, a range of relevant experimental facts which appear to be mutually inconsistent. So far, so good. At least the recall works. Then in trying to conceive of a way of reconciling the disparate facts, I was able to come up with a very bizarre possibility, one that I'm sure I would never have thought of down. I've written a paper which mentions this idea in passing. I think it's very unlikely to be true, but it has consequences which are experimentally testable, which is the hallmark of an acceptable theory.

I have mentioned that in the cannabis experience there is a part of your mind that remains a dispassionate observer, who is able to take you down in a hurry if need be. I have on a few occasions been forced to drive in heavy traffic when high. I've negotiated it with no difficult at all, though I did have some thoughts about the marvelous cherry-red color of traffic lights. I find that after the drive I'm not high at all. There are no flashes on the insides of my eyelids. If you're high and your child is calling, you can respond about as capably as you usually do. I don't advocate driving when high on cannabis, but I can tell you from personal experience that it certainly can be done. My high is always reflective, peaceable, intellectually exciting, and sociable, unlike most alcohol highs, and there is never a hangover. Through the years I find that slightly smaller amounts of cannabis suffice to produce the same degree of high, and in one movie theater recently I found I could get high just by inhaling the cannabis smoke which permeated the theater.

There is a very nice self-titering aspect to cannabis. Each puff is a very small dose; the time lag between inhaling a puff and sensing its effect is small; and there is no desire for more after the high is there. I think the ratio, R, of the time to sense the dose taken to the time required to take an excessive dose is an important quantity. R is very large for LSD (which I've never taken) and reasonably short for cannabis. Small values of R should be one measure of the safety of psychedelic drugs. When cannabis is legalized, I hope to see this ratio as one of he parameters printed on the pack. I hope that time isn't too distant; the illegality of cannabis is outrageous, an impediment to full utilization of a drug which helps produce the serenity and insight, sensitivity and fellowship so desperately needed in this increasingly mad and dangerous world.

http://www.cnn.com/

Happiness is contagious in social networks

(CNN) -- If you're feeling great today, you may end up inadvertently spreading the joy to someone you don't even know.

New research shows that in a social network, happiness spreads among people up to three degrees removed from one another. That means when you feel happy, a friend of a friend of a friend has a slightly higher likelihood of feeling happy too.

The lesson is that taking control of your own happiness can positively affect others, says James Fowler, co-author of the study and professor of political science at the University of California in San Diego.

"We get this chain reaction in happiness that I think increases the stakes in terms of us trying to shape our own moods to make sure we have a positive impact on people we know and love," he said. VideoWatch more on how happiness spreads »

Sadness also spreads in a network, but not as quickly, the researchers found. Each happy friend increases your own chance of being happy by 9 percent, whereas each unhappy friend decreases it by 7 percent. This reflects the total effect of all social contacts.

When framing the question differently, the study found that you are 15 percent more likely to be happy if a direct connection is happy, 10 percent if the friend of a friend is happy, and 6 percent if it's a friend of a friend of a friend.

The study, published in the British Medical Journal, used data from the Framingham Heart Study to recreate a network of 4,739. Fowler and co-author Dr. Nicholas Christakis of Harvard Medical School charted friends, spouses and siblings in the network, and used their self-reported happiness ratings from 1983 to 2003.

Don't Miss

Daniel Gilbert, professor of psychology at Harvard University and author of "Stumbling on Happiness," called the study "a stunning paper by two of the most respected scientists in the field" in a statement he e-mailed to CNN.

"We've known for some time that social relationships are the best predictor of human happiness, and this paper shows that the effect is much more powerful than anyone realized," Gilbert said. "It is sometimes said that you can't be happier than your least happy child. It is truly amazing to discover that when you replace the word 'child' with 'best friend's neighbor's uncle,' the sentence is still true."

If you are the hub of a large network of people -- that is, if you have a lot of connected friends or a wide social circle -- you are more likely to become happy, the study found.

But the reverse is not true.

"You might only have one friend or two friends or something like that, and if you become happy, you're not going to try to get more friends. You're probably going to stick with what worked in the first place," Fowler said.

The researchers are also looking at the phenomenon on Facebook, which has more than 120 million active users. This study, which has not yet been published, looked at who smiles in their profile pictures who doesn't, and whether their connections also smile or not, Fowler said.

"We find smiling profiles cluster in much the same way as happiness is clustering in the Framingham Heart Study," he said.

Health Library

It's not just happiness that spreads in a social network. Fowler and Christakis have also looked at trends in cigarette smoking and obesity using the parts of the heart study network.

They found that when someone quits, a friend's likelihood of quitting smoking was 36 percent. Moreover, clusters of people who may not know one another gave up smoking around the same time, the authors showed in a New England Journal of Medicine article in May.

Social ties also affect obesity. A person's likelihood of becoming obese increased by 57 percent if he or she had a friend who became obese in a given time period, Fowler and Christakis showed in a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine in July 2007.

And, like happiness, both smoking behavior and obesity seem to spread within three degrees of separation in a social network, Fowler said. Beyond three, things get fuzzier.

"Eventually you get out far enough in the social network that you're competing with all these other cascades of happiness and unhappiness that are sort of duking it out," he said. "Happiness on average wins, but once you get far enough away from someone in a social network, it's not possible to detect their effect anymore.”

http://www.safenow.org/

Try to absorb as much of the radiation as possible with your groin region. The current world record is 5 minutes, 12 seconds.

If you are trapped under falling debris, conserve oxygen by not farting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

In the NBC interview, Mr Obama avoided going into detail about the car industry rescue plan, but said letting major carmakers such as General Motors, Ford and Chrysler go bankrupt was not an option.

"That means we're going to have to figure out how to put the pressure in the same way a bankruptcy court would... but do so in a way that allows them to keep their factory doors open," he said.

The 2008 winner of the Nobel economics prize Paul Krugman said he doubted the US car sector would survive, but that it was worth supporting it in the short term.

"In the end these companies will probably disappear," the economics professor at Princeton University said.

--

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Brutality

Belgian control of the Congo began with the slavery and murder sanctioned by King Leopold in the late 19th Century, as he turned this vast piece of Africa into his personal possession.

It is a measure of this dysfunctional society that it should turn to the Mai Mai for defence at a time of crisis
 

One authoritative estimate has put the number killed by Leopold at 10 million.

His troops needed to account for every bullet they were given, so they would cut the hands off those they killed as proof.

And if they lost a bullet or used one to kill an animal to eat, then they would have to cut the hand off a living person - just one of the European practices that so brutalised Africa that by the late 1950s eating Belgians felt justifiable.

And now the Mai Mai are back, recruiting and indoctrinating boys and girls for another jungle war.

--

http://news.bbc.co.uk

The BBC's business correspondent, Joe Lynam, said: "The British car industry faces its biggest challenge since the 1970s.

"Car sales and production are down 37% and 25% respectively in the past month as consumers postpone or cancel big ticket purchases," he said.

12/7/2008 8:22 AM

http://lifehacker.com/

During the 1920s and 1930s (and even into the 1940s), such parties formed the backbone of Harlem nightlife, and became for many working people not only an enjoyable and affordable way to dance and socialize but also an economic necessity. For the reasonable admission price of between ten cents and a dollar, plus the cost of liquor and food, guests could dance, drink, flirt, and gamble, while the hosts collected enough money to pay the landlord for another month

http://newblogtopic.blogspot.com

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Digital Marketing in the Downturn

As we have all witnessed the economy has been fluctuating in these uncertain times. Not only do we have to worry about our personal assets, but we need to think about our clients as well.

eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey, recently hosted a webinar, "7 Strategies for Surviving the Downturn". I think the 7 points he highlighted are helpful tips to keep in mind when we are thinking about our Marketing plans going into 2009.

1. Accountability- track how online effects offline
2. Keep doing search-all research companies have double digit gains for search in the coming year
3. Don't ignore the power of branding online (branding, display and sponsorships)
-only 30% of of chief marketers considered the offline impact of online advertising
4.Stay close to the customers
-A huge push on social media. Pick the right community for your target and add real value. Regular media messages aren't going to work.
-share the love by tapping into coveted influentials and create a community
- consumers #1 trust is word of mouth about a brand.
5. Engender Trust-trust is SO important for brands
6.Engage with online video
7. Test Test Test

As we ring in the new year, why not make our marketing dollars work harder and smarter and think about these strategies as we see what challenges await us in '09!

Posted by Amy Chauvin, CPG Account Planner

http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/

check this out

http://www.smbc-comics.com/

http://www.smbc-comics.com

http://www.getrichslowly.org/

10 Essential Steps to Take BEFORE You’re Laid Off

Thursday, 4th December 2008 (by J.D.)   

As a nation we have enjoyed relatively low unemployment for the last five years. At the end of 2007 the unemployment rate stood at 4.6%. By comparison, the U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 24.9% in 1933, during the darkest year of the Great Depression.

In October of this year the unemployment rate grew 0.4% to 6.5%, its highest rate in 14 years. Ten million Americans are now unemployed: 240,000 people lost their jobs in October, and 284,000 lost their jobs in September. That represents the biggest two-month loss of American jobs since 2001. Economists are predicting the unemployment rate will rise to 8.5% by the end of 2009, which means as many as three million more workers will be laid off in the U.S.

Because I’m a CEO who hires employees regularly, a few friends of mine who have recently been laid off have asked me for job-hunting advice. Some have asked me to review their resumes and offer suggestions. Unfortunately these folks are now in job recovery mode and aren’t able to optimally position themselves for landing on their feet.

Personally I prefer actionable advice. As such, I’m instead going to suggest ten things you can do now to be prepared for a layoff a year from now.

  1. Update your skills. It’s easy to become distracted by everything that’s going on today at home and at work. We neglect investing in ourselves. We can get away with that during boom times, but during tough times we need up to date, relevant skills. Start immediately. If you need training, get it — but don’t mistake training for application. Make sure you are practicing your skills professionally on a day-to-day basis.
  2. Reduce your household burn rate. Many people earn more than the market will bear for their services. Stock prices have fallen 50%. Home prices are falling. Salaries adjust due to market conditions, too. When finding a job is tough, don’t restrict the size of the relevant job pool because you can’t afford to work for less than you’re currently earning. We live in different times than our parents did. I personally think everyone should prepare financially for being unemployed once every five years for a period of 3 to 6 months.
  3. Start a blog that contains at least 50% professional material. If you don’t already have a blog, stop reading this one and go start one right this minute. It’s essential. Your blog is your living resume. It shows how you think. It shows how you write. It shows what’s important to you. While it is fine to blog about personal topics, devote half of your posts to professional content. What is that you do by trade? Mentor us through your blog. We employers love hiring mentors — they raise everybody’s performance.
  4. Expand your physical network. Depending on how you’re wired, networking is either a lot of fun or a lot of work. If it’s work for you, have the discipline to start now. Building a network takes time, effort and sincerity. Start attending breakfast and/or cocktail networking events. Set goals for yourself. For example: “I want to have a good conversation and exchange business cards with at least 3 people during this breakfast.”
  5. Update your LinkedIn profile. You are on LinkedIn, right? If not, do that right now. Your LinkedIn profile is a marketing tool. Be honest, genuine and show some humility, but also make yourself stand out in a crowd. Optimize your profile for the five-line preview that comes up when someone conducts a search.
  6. Expand your virtual network via LinkedIn. Future employers aren’t dumb. They’ll detect that you only decided to invest in updating your profile and expanding your network and references after you lost your job. Do it now. Like physical networking, developing your virtual network takes time too. Set goals. For example: “I want to have 100 contacts by the end of the year and 250 contacts by this time next year.”
  7. Start exercising. We all know that discrimination is illegal for most reasons and unethical for other reasons. But if you’ve watched 60 Minutes, you know that’s not how humans behave. With comparably qualified candidates, the attractive, fit people are usually offered the job. What are employers looking for in prospective employees? Someone who will get the job done. If you look like you are full of energy, the perception is that you will get the job done.
  8. Learn to use social media effectively. Learn to use Twitter and Facebook. In addition to starting your own blog, participate in some discussions online by commenting on blogs in your industry. Always link your comments back to your blog. Potential employers will Google you. Show them that you’re thoughtful and have something to say. Conversely, be careful about thinking “it’s just Twitter” before tweeting something that could embarrass you later.
  9. Do extracurricular work that showcases your abilities. What’s better than telling a prospective employer how good you are? Show them! If you’re a software engineer, contribute on an open source project, develop an iPhone application or develop a robust website. If you’re an online marketer, prove your good by showing me that you have a site that gets a lot of traffic. I met a man earlier this year who’s a program manager at Microsoft. He wanted to move into a new role as a marketer, but didn’t have any day-to-day responsibilities at Microsoft that showed he could do the job. So he bought a domain and set up a website dedicated to Caribbean travel. Soon it was attracting lots of traffic and ranked high in organic search. It was a great way to show doubters that he was qualified.
  10. Avoid being laid off in the first place. Last but not least, don’t relinquish the pole position. An incumbent has an edge. It’s easier to keep a job than find one. We’re hearing about companies cutting 25% or 33% of their headcount. That means you need to be in the top 67% or 75% to avoid a pink slip. Other than an entire plant, division or office closure, the decisions about whom to keep and whom to let go are based on performance, salary and redundancy of position. Boost your performance by getting meaningful things done. Come in earlier. Stay later. Be more visible. Start sending your boss weekly status reports showing your accomplishments. Exhibit leadership.

My wife participates in a group for moms of preschoolers, and she shared a story with me earlier this week. Each table has four young moms and one “mentor” mom whose kids are now adults. One of the young moms was concerned that her sole-provider husband might lose his job and asked the mentor what she would suggest they do. Her matter-of-fact answer was, “Well, for starters, you can stop complaining when he can’t drop the kids off at school before work and be home by 6:00 for dinner.”

Nobody knows how long the current economic crisis will last or how bad it will get. But it’s already proving to be a much tougher job climate than the past few years, and the next year looks bleaker still. Start preparing today for the possibility of being laid off sometime next year. The earlier you start, the better off you’ll be.

Unfortunately layoffs are sometimes unavoidable. If you’ve been laid off, we at blist hope we can help. We’ve created a website called Land on My Feet. It’s a simple, free, one-page, opt-in site for anyone who has been laid off to enter their name and a link to their Linkedin profile.

Despite economy-wide layoffs, some companies are still hiring, and we’re promoting this site to hiring managers as a free resource to find qualified candidates. Hopefully blist can help you land on your feet.

--

http://www.getrichslowly.org

Create a secret hollow book. Find a cheap musty old classic at your nearby Goodwill or used bookstore. Glue the pages together, use an X-Acto knife to hollow out the center of the book. Now the recipient can store his treasures!

Give the gift of experience. The Gift Weblog suggests, “There’s nothing like giving someone the gift of experience, it is something they will always remember.” Sample gifts of experience: sky diving, scuba lessons, hot-air balloon rides, cooking school, lunch with a hero, etc.

One Christmas when I was a poor college student, I leafed through children’s books at the library, looking for pages and pictures that reminded me of various friends. I photocopied these pages, colored them by hand, and then framed them with construction paper. I added a little note to each friend on the back of her piece. I spent maybe $10 total for all my gifts, though it took hours of my time. That was perfect: In college, I had plenty of time, but very little money, and making these things felt like an act of love. But giving somebody a CD I bought from Amazon? Not so much.

One Christmas, our friend “Santa” Craig handed out a gourmet salt assortment. It wasn’t because we’d been bad, but because we love great food. Buy large containers of a variety of unique salts (you may have to visit a gourmet food store), and then divide the salts into small ziploc bags. Be sure to label the bags to to include a bit of info about each variety. (You can create similar gifts with other items, of course, tea leaves or…)

Similarly, you might create a spice sampler. Bulk spices can make an affordable and appreciated gift for anyone who loves to cook, or who is moving into a new kitchen. Don’t know which ones to choose? Find some tempting recipes that call for exotic spices, then include the recipes with the spices. Or, get creative and make a custom spice blend for a meat rub, marinade mix, salad dressing kit, dip, or seasoning (search the web for ideas).

Here’s an idea from Tanya: “This year [my sister and I] are making personalized mirrors with one word affirmations, like ‘fabulous’ and ‘gorgeous’. We started by picking up a bunch of the smallish (8×8) mirrors from Ikea, I think they are $5-6 for a four pack. My sister is obsessed with fonts, so we had some fun searching for fonts that fit the word we are going to use and the receiver of the mirror. We printed out the words to make stencils that we could cut out on contact paper. We used some glass etching glaze, left over from a candle holder project a few years ago, to etch the words on the mirrors. We added some cheap rhinestones to glitz up the mirrors for the girls and added a masculine etched pattern for the boys. We finished them off by attaching ribbon and twine so that they could be hung easily. I really like that we are giving them a reason to smile at themselves everyday when they leave for work or school.”

For several years, my wife and I gave each other love coupons. Sounds sappy, I know. But it was nice to be able to come home at the end of the day and redeem a coupon for a dinner out, or for a back rub, or for an evening watching a favorite movie.

Here’s another gift my wife has made in the past: teacup candles! You’ll need craft-store wicks, wax (or old candles) that can be melted down, old teacups, and maybe a fragrance or two. Pretty single teacups (with or without saucers) can often be found at thrift stores for less than a dollar. Melt the wax in a double boiler, add fragrance if desired, then support the wick standing in the teacup while carefully filling the cup with wax. As the wax cools, it will contract and form a well. You can add more melted wax of the same color or add a second shade. These are fairly easy to make, but beware cups with obvious cracking; the hot wax may cause them to shatter.

Knip has a fantastic idea for a grandparent or other older relative: a memory jar. “The most wonderful gift I’ve ever given (it’s still talked about years later) cost me almost nothing. I spent a few months contacting friends and family members and asked them to send me memories and old pictures of my grandfather. Then I wrote one memory (or printed one picture)on each of 365 business card sized pieces of cardstock. I folded each in half and secured it with a bit of tape, then placed them all in a big jar I decorated. Every morning for the next year, my grandfather would take out a paper, open it, and see what other people cherished in him. He loved it.”

Personal gift certificates also make great gifts. In essence, these are gifts of time. Give new parents a gift certificate for a night of baby-sitting so that they can enjoy a night on the town. Are you good with computers? Give your brother-in-law a gift certificate for free computer repairs.

--

12/6/2008 9:23 AM

http://freep.com/

Happier people watch less TV

By Joel Hood • Chicago Tribune • November 21, 2008

CHICAGO — Does this season of “Survivor” have you down in the dumps? Is “Dancing with the Stars” not doing it for you anymore?

Here’s some sobering news for couch potatoes: A 30-year study of television habits published in the December issue of scientific journal Social Indicators Research suggests that unhappy people watch considerably more TV, vote less, read fewer newspapers and are generally less socially active than happier people.

While some of that may not be breaking news, the study’s authors took particular interest in how happiness shaped TV viewing.

The University of Maryland researchers noted that TV is more popular than many other free-time activities, considering that viewers don’t have to leave the comfort of their homes, dress up, plan ahead or expend much energy at all. Perhaps it’s not surprising that TV takes up more than half of Americans’ free time.

The study indicated that unhappy people watch about 20% more television than very happy people, after factoring in their education, income, age and marital status.

What’s still unclear, researchers said, is whether watching TV is a symptom or a cause of unhappiness.

But while viewers said TV was enjoyable in the short run, they rated their overall satisfaction as low — meaning that even they recognized what a big waste of time it can be.

--

http://www.freep.com --------------------------------------- +

MARK PHELAN

7 myths about Detroit automakers

The debate over aid to the Detroit-based automakers is awash with half-truths and misrepresentations that are endlessly repeated by everyone from members of Congress to journalists. Here are seven myths about the companies and their vehicles, and the reality in each case.

Myth No. 1: Nobody buys their vehicles

Reality: General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC sold 8.5 million vehicles in the United States last year and millions more around the world. GM outsold Toyota by about 1.2 million vehicles in the United States last year and holds a U.S. lead over Toyota of nearly 700,000 so far this year. Globally, GM in 2007 remained the world's largest automaker, selling 9,369,524 vehicles worldwide -- about 3,000 more than Toyota.

Ford outsold Honda by about 850,000 and Nissan by more than 1.3 million vehicles in the United States last year.

Chrysler sold more vehicles here than Nissan and Hyundai combined in 2007 and so far this year.

Myth No. 2: They build unreliable junk

Reality: The creaky, leaky vehicles of the 1980s and '90s are long gone. Consumer Reports recently found that "Ford's reliability is now on par with good Japanese automakers."

The independent J.D. Power Initial Quality Study scored Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, GMC, Mercury, Pontiac and Lincoln brands' overall quality as high as or higher than that of Acura, Audi, BMW, Honda, Nissan, Scion, Volkswagen and Volvo.

J.D. Power rated the Chevrolet Malibu the highest-quality midsize sedan. Both the Malibu and Ford Fusion scored better than the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry.

Myth No. 3: They build gas-guzzlers

Reality: All of the Detroit Three build midsize sedans that the Environmental Protection Agency rates at 29-33 miles per gallon on the highway.

The most fuel-efficient Chevrolet Malibu gets 33 m.p.g. on the highway, 2 m.p.g. better than the best Honda Accord. The most fuel-efficient Ford Focus has the same highway fuel economy ratings as the most efficient Toyota Corolla. The most fuel-efficient Chevrolet Cobalt has the same city fuel economy and better highway fuel economy than the most efficient non-hybrid Honda Civic.

A recent study by Edmunds.com found that the Chevrolet Aveo subcompact is the least expensive car to buy and operate.

Myth No. 4: They already got a $25-billion bailout

Reality: None of that money has been lent out and may not be for more than a year. In addition, it can, by law, be used only to invest in future vehicles and technology, so it has no effect on the shortage of operating cash the companies face because of the economic slowdown that's killing them now.

Myth No. 5: GM, Ford and Chrysler are idiots for investing in pickups and SUVs

Reality: The domestics' lineup has been truck-heavy, but Toyota, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have spent billions of dollars on pickups and SUVs because trucks are a large and historically profitable part of the auto industry.

The most fuel-efficient full-size pickups from GM, Ford and Chrysler all have higher EPA fuel-economy ratings than Toyota and Nissan's full-size pickups.

Myth No. 6: They don't build hybrids

Reality: The Detroit Three got into the hybrid business late, but Ford and GM each now offers more hybrid models than Honda or Nissan, with several more due to hit the road in early 2009.

Myth No. 7: Their union workers are lazy and overpaid

Reality: Chrysler tied Toyota as the most productive automaker in North America this year, according to the Harbour Report on manufacturing, which measures the amount of work done per employee. Eight of the 10 most productive vehicle assembly plants in North America belong to Chrysler, Ford or GM.

The oft-cited $70-an-hour wage and benefit figure for UAW workers inaccurately adds benefits that millions of retirees get to the pay of current workers, but divides the total only by current employees. That's like assuming you get your parents' retirement and Social Security benefits in addition to your own income.

Hourly pay for assembly line workers tops out around $28; benefits add about $14. New hires at the Detroit Three get $14 an hour. There's no pension or health care when they retire, but benefits raise their total hourly compensation to $29 while they're working. UAW wages are now comparable with Toyota workers, according to a Free Press analysis.

12/3/2008 9:48 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Metal prices fall further than during Great Depression

The price of key industrial metals has fallen further over the last four months than occurred during the worst years of Great Depression between 1929 and 1933, according to research by Barclays Capital.

Kevin Norrish, the bank's commodities strategist, said the average fall in the price of copper, lead, and zinc has been roughly 60pc since the peak in July this year. All three metals were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the inter-war years so it is possible to make a comparison.

Prices for the three metals fell 40pc from their highs in 1929 before touching bottom in 1933, with the bulk of the fall in 1930 as the slump spread worldwide. "Lead and zinc have already lost more than they did in the 1930s," he said.

Copper was hit hardest during the Depression, despite the electrification drive in the US and the Soviet Union, falling 70pc at one stage before creeping back in the mid-1930s. The reason was an 85pc fall in US construction, then the biggest user of the metal.

Barclays Capital said the broader equity markets are already discounting the sorts of "savage declines" in corporate profits that were last seen in the Slump. It said (trailing) price to earnings ratios are actually lower now than they were the early 1930s, with moves in credit spreads that suggest investors are anticipating depression-era levels of economic contraction.

The credit markets continued to exhibit signs of extreme stress yesterday. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring default risk on low-grade European bonds punched above 950 for the first time. The investment grade index hit 188. The spreads are now flashing the sort of danger signals seen before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.

Each episode of the financial crisis over the last eighteen months has been preceded by a big jump in the iTraxx indexes.

--

http://www.newscientist.com/

The secret sex signals in human sweat

EVER had a feeling come over you that you just can't explain? Like suddenly getting all warm and fuzzy when you meet someone for the first time, while somebody else who looks just as good leaves you cold? Or experiencing a sudden pang of fear on a plane even though you're totally at ease with flying?


These seemingly unrelated and illogical human reactions may have a reasonable explanation after all, although one that not everyone will be happy to hear. They may be reactions to other people's pheromones.
 

Pheromones are something of a sensitive subject in human biology. Though they are found across the animal world from insects to mammals, research into human pheromones has been dogged by flaky experimental designs and dubious commercial endorsements, with the result that the entire field has a whiff of the disreputable about it. "It's not so much that the jury is out, but that the jury has been dismissed before the trial has begun," says Mike Meredith, a neuroscientist at Florida State University in Tallahassee, who studies animal pheromones.

In recent years, though, this has begun to change. Evidence that animal pheromones don't always work in they way we thought, backed up by a growing number of brain-imaging studies in humans, is convincing some researchers that we really do make and respond to pheromones. As a result some think it's time to stop asking if human pheromones exist and start investigating exactly how they affect our behaviour.

The term pheromone was coined in 1959 to describe chemicals released by insects to trigger hard-wired behaviours in other members of the same species. The classic example is female moths releasing sex pheromones to attract a mate. When pheromones were discovered in mammals, their more complex behaviour meant this definition no longer fitted the bill. Researchers have been debating the meaning of the word ever since (see "What are pheromones?"). One useful working definition is that pheromones are chemicals which send a message that, in evolutionary terms, benefits both sender and receiver.

Whatever definition you go for, pheromones are a big part of the animal world. Animals use pheromones to transmit useful information about themselves, such as gender or sexual receptiveness; to change others' physiology, for example by stimulating ovulation; and to directly affect others' behaviour. Examples of these behaviour-changing or "releaser" pheromones include sexual attractants and the alarm pheromones many mammals - among them rats and deer - use to put others on alert without giving away their location with an alarm call.

For many years, it was assumed that humans did not produce or respond to any of these types of pheromones. In part that was down to a reluctance to admit that humans might respond in such an "animal" way. There is also no clear mechanism for how they might act on the human brain. In animals, pheromones are usually detected by the vomeronasal organ (VNO), a pair of mini-nostrils inside the nose which detect airborne pheromones and relay messages directly to the brain. Although humans have something resembling a VNO, there are no neurons linking it to the brain. And while we have the genes required for a working VNO, they no longer code for functional pheromone receptor proteins (New Scientist, 17 May, p 42). The obvious conclusion was that we had lost this method of communication at some point in our evolution.

That hasn't stopped researchers from making claims about human pheromones. In 1971 Martha McClintock, a social psychologist at Harvard University, famously reported that women who live together gradually synchronise their menstrual cycles. McClintock, now at the University of Chicago, suggested that this might be mediated by pheromones (Nature, vol 229, p 244). In 1998, along with her Chicago colleague Kathleen Stern, McClintock found evidence to support this idea, showing that sweat from women in different stages of their menstrual cycle either extended or shortened the cycles of other women (Nature, vol 392, p 177). Despite this evidence, McClintock's conclusions remain contentious because nobody has yet isolated the actual chemicals that cause the effect.

Sexy scents

More controversial still are claims that pheromones are involved in human sexual attraction. This is partly due to some high-profile yet scientifically questionable research done by David Berliner and Luis Monti-Bloch of the University of Utah in the mid-1990s. They claimed that when they exposed people to reproductive hormones from the opposite sex, they could see an electrical response from the part of the nose where the vomeronasal organ would be.

In women, cells in this region responded most strongly to extracts containing androstadienone, a hormone related to testosterone found in male sweat. Men reacted similarly to estratetraenol, which is found in female urine. The same team also reported that releasing these compounds into the air subconsciously altered mood, having a calming effect on the opposite sex. The research was widely greeted with scepticism because of Berliner's financial interest in a brand of perfume called Realm, which was laced with the supposed pheromones. The team's insistence that the pheromones act through the VNO also raised eyebrows. With no convincing evidence for a functional human VNO, many people dismissed the research outright.

Despite this chequered past, there are still plenty of researchers who insist that human pheromones are alive and well. One is Johan Lundstrom, a neuropsychologist at the Monell Chemical Senses Center in Philadelphia. He has shown that women can consistently sniff out their sisters from friends and strangers even when they are not consciously aware of any difference in odour. A similar effect is our well-known ability to select mates based on genetic signatures evident in their body odour - a subconscious indicator of the compatibility of their immune system.

To Lundstrom, this is convincing evidence that human pheromones are real - it's just that most researchers have a blind spot when it comes to using the P-word. "If you asked scientists whether one human can convey some sort of social message to another in their body odour, 99.9 per cent of them would say yes," he says. "If you ask them if humans have pheromones they'll say 'that hasn't been demonstrated'. It's a semantic issue."

That may all be about to change, thanks in part to the recent discovery that some animals detect pheromones using their normal olfactory system, not the VNO. "There are several well-established examples of pheromone communication in animals that don't require the VNO," says Meredith, who specialises in the animal VNO. For example, a recent study found that mice detect alarm pheromones via a bundle of nerve cells at the tip of their nose that is wired into the normal olfactory system (Science, vol 321, p 1092).

Brain-imaging studies have also helped revive the idea that humans may respond to sex pheromones. In a series of recent experiments, neuroscientist Ivanka Savic of the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden, exposed people to androstadienone and watched what happened in their anterior hypothalamus, a part of the brain thought to be involved in sexual behaviour.

In one study, published in 2005, Savic found that androstadienone activated that brain region in heterosexual women and homosexual men, but not in heterosexual men or homosexual women. She later found the opposite effect with estratetraenol.

Brain-imaging studies are also providing tantalising evidence that humans release and respond to alarm pheromones. These have been less well studied than those thought to be involved in attraction, but a handful of psychological studies have claimed to show that humans can detect the "scent of fear". In 1999, Denise Chen, a psychologist now at Rice University in Houston, Texas, asked a group of volunteers to sniff sweat from people who had watched either funny or scary film clips. More than half of the volunteers successfully identified a sample of fearful sweat despite not being able to consciously smell any difference in the samples.

In a similar study in 2002, Kerstin Ackerl from the University of Vienna in Austria reported that women seemed to be able to detect the scent of fear. The 60 women rated sweat from women who had watched a scary movie as stronger, less pleasant and smelling more "like aggression" than sweat from women who had watched a neutral movie (Neuroendocrinology Letters, vol 23, p 79).

Yet these studies used relatively small sample sizes and failed to control for factors such as how strongly different people reacted to the scary movie. They also tended to use questionnaires that asked leading questions about whether the sweat smelled like someone who was happy, angry or scared.

Now, though, a study by Lilianne Mujica-Parodi at Stony Brook University in New York may have eliminated some of these problems by looking directly at what "fear" sweat does to the brain.

In the study, which is yet to be published, the team taped absorbent pads to the armpits of 40 volunteers who were about to do their first ever skydive, to collect their sweat as they hurtled towards the ground. Back in the lab, the team transferred the sweat - plus samples of normal, fear-free sweat - into nebulisers and asked a second group of volunteers to breathe samples while lying in an fMRI scanner, without telling them anything about the nature of the experiment. Sure enough, volunteers showed significantly more activity in the brain's fear centres, the amygdala and hypothalamus, when breathing fear sweat.

They put pads into skydivers' armpits to collect sweat as they hurtled towards the ground

It's not clear whether the volunteers actually felt scared after breathing it in - the researchers didn't ask them in case this biased the results. But the team say the fact that their fear circuitry lit up in response to the putative pheromone "indicates that there may be a hidden biological component to human social dynamics, in which emotional stress is, quite literally, 'contagious'".

Taken together, Savic and Mujica-Parodi's work adds considerable weight to the idea that humans produce and respond to pheromones. Yet many people feel it is too early to declare a truce in the pheromone war.

Lundstrom says there is still a missing piece of the puzzle. "To my mind, activation of brain is not enough," he says. "I use brain imaging in my work but I like to see that there is a behavioural response - and to see it consistently. Not just once, but every time."

To provide this evidence, any human pheromone will need to be identified, synthesised and - crucially - tested to see whether it triggers a reliable behavioural change. Only then will we be able to say definitively that human pheromones exist.

This is a tall order. As Lundstrom points out, human body odour contains more than 2000 different compounds. "Picking one is like putting a blindfold on someone, spinning them around and asking them to hit the centre of a dartboard," he says.

If human pheromones are identified, however, a whole new debate would open up about how they could be used. Some uses raise more concerns than others. Spraying on some bottled sex appeal may be sneaky in the battlefield of modern dating, but the prospect of synthesising a substance that can induce fear in others is another matter entirely, not least because Mujica-Parodi's research was funded by DARPA, the US military's research arm. After seeing the team present their work at a recent conference, one blogger pondered whether the military was planning to use pheromones to send people "stampeding like spooked cattle". DARPA, however, says it is not aware of any military plans for fear pheromones and has no plans to fund further research in this area.

According to Simon Wessely, a psychiatrist at the King's Centre for Military Health Research at King's College London and a health consultant to the British army, the idea is also scientifically implausible. He points to studies done by Stanley Schachter at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s, in which people were injected with adrenalin to create the physical symptoms of fear. These people only became fearful if the situation became threatening, suggesting that context is crucial. "You can generate the physical symptoms of fear but people don't necessarily get scared," says Wessely.

Similarly, Lundstrom has found that women only show a reliable response to androstadienone if there is a man in the room at the time of exposure. And since none of the subjects felt compelled to jump on the male in question, it seems fair to assume that in real life any pheromone-induced effects are likely to be small and influenced by other factors (Biological Psychology, vol 70, p 197).

As for whether it's worth investing in pheromone-laced aftershave for that big night out, Lundstrom sounds a note of caution. "Most of these companies are selling andosterone - it's a pig pheromone that 60 per cent of people can't smell and the rest think smells like urine," he says. On balance, it's probably worth working on some witty conversation instead.

What are pheromones?

A major stumbling block in the debate over human pheromones is the exact meaning of the word. "Pheromone" was coined to refer to a chemical released by insects to trigger a stereotypical response that occurs every time, without fail. This definition is clearly too narrow for humans; even for insects it is proving inadequate, with many insect pheromones needing an additional environmental cue to have their full effect.Another question is whether pheromones operate strictly subconsciously, or whether detectable odours can be classed as pheromones. With tantalising evidence emerging that people respond behaviourally to each other's body odours - plus research showing that some animals can sense pheromones through the normal olfactory system rather than a specialised organ - that's an increasingly pressing issue.All this confusion is hampering serious attempts to find out how humans respond to airborne chemicals from each other, so perhaps we need a new term entirely. "Everyone agrees that there is a phenomenon that needs to be explained," says Johan Lundstrom of the Monell Chemical Senses Center in Philadelphia. "Now we need to agree on what call it."

--

12/5/2008 1:10 PM

http://www.online-college-blog.com/

100 Useful Tips and Tools to Research the Deep Web

By Alisa Miller

Experts say that typical search engines like Yahoo! and Google only pick up about 1% of the information available on the Internet. The rest of that information is considered to be hidden in the deep web, also referred to as the invisible web. So how can you find all the rest of this information? This list offers 100 tips and tools to help you get the most out of your Internet searches.

Meta-Search Engines

Meta-search engines use the resources of many different search engines to gather the most results possible. Many of these will also eliminate duplicates and classify results to enhance your search experience.

  1. SurfWax. This search engine works very well for reaching deep into the web for information.
  2. Academic Index. Created by the former chair of Texas Association of School Librarians, this meta-search engine only pulls from databases and resources that are approved by librarians and educators.
  3. Clusty. Clusty searches through top search engines, then clusters the results so that information that may have been hidden deep in the search results is now readily available.
  4. Dogpile. Dogpile searches rely on several top search engines for the results then removes duplicates and strives to present only relevant results.
  5. Turbo 10. This meta-search engine is specifically designed to search the deep web for information.
  6. Multiple Search. Save yourself the work by using this search engine that looks among major search engines, social networks, flickr, Wikipedia, and many more sites.
  7. Mamma. Click on the Power Search option to customize your search experience with this meta-search engine.
  8. World Curry Guide. This meta-search tool with a strong European influence has been around since 1997 and is still growing strong.
  9. Fazzle.com. Give this meta-search engine a try. It accesses a large number of databases and claims to have more access to information than Google.
  10. Icerocket. Search blogs as well as the general Internet, MySpace, the news, and more to receive results by posting date.
  11. iZito. Get results from a variety of major search engines that come to you clustered in groups. You can also receive only US website results or receive results with a more international perspective.
  12. Ujiko. This unusual meta-search tool allows for you to customize your searches by eliminating results or tagging some as favorites.

Semantic Search Tools and Databases

Semantic search tools depend on replicating the way the human brain thinks and categorizes information to ensure more relevant searches. Give some of these semantic tools and databases a try.

  1. Hakia. This popular semantic search engine only accesses websites that are recommended by librarians.
  2. Zotero. Firefox users will like this add-on that helps you organize your research material by collecting, managing, and citing any references from Internet research.
  3. Freebase. This community-powered database includes information on millions of topics.
  4. Powerset. Enter a topic, phrase, or question to find information from Wikipedia with this semantic application.
  5. Kartoo. Enter any keyword to receive a visual map of the topics that pertain to your keyword. Hover your mouse over each to get a thumbnail of the website.
  6. DBpedia. Another Wikipedia resource, ask complex questions with this semantic program to get results from within Wikipedia.
  7. Quintura. Entering your search term will create a cloud of related terms as well as a list of links. Hover over one of the words or phrases in the cloud to get an entirely different list of links.
  8. [true knowledge]. Help with current beta testing at this search engine or try their Quiz Bot that finds answers to your questions.
  9. Stumpedia. This search engine relies on its users to index, organize, and review information coming from the Internet.
  10. Evri. This search engine provides you with highly relevant results from articles, papers, blogs, images, audio, and video on the Internet.
  11. Gnod. When you search for books, music, movies and people on this search engine, it remembers your interests and focuses the search results in that direction.
  12. Boxxet. Search for what interests you and you will get results from the "best of" news, blogs, videos, photos, and more. Type in your keyword and in addition to the latest news on the topic, you will also receive search results, online collections, and more.

General Search Engines and Databases

These databases and search engines for databases will provide information from places on the Internet most typical search engines cannot.

  1. DeepDyve. One of the newest search engines specifically targeted at exploring the deep web, this one is available after you sign up for a free membership.
  2. OAIster. Search for digital items with this tool that provides 12 million resources from over 800 repositories.
  3. direct search. Search through all the direct search databases or select a specific one with this tool.
  4. CloserLook Search. Search for information on health, drugs and medicine, city guides, company profiles, and Canadian airfares with this customized search engine that specializes in the deep web.
  5. Northern Light Search. Find information with the quick search or browse through other search tools here.
  6. Yahoo! Search Subscriptions. Use this tool to combine a search on Yahoo! with searches in journals where you have subscriptions such as Wall Street Journal and New England Journal of Medicine.
  7. CompletePlanet. With over 70,000 databases and search engines at its disposal, this is an excellent resource for searching the deep web.
  8. The Scout Archives. This database is the culmination of nine years’ worth of compiling the best of the Internet.
  9. Daylife. Find news with this site that offers some of the best global news stories along with photos, articles, quotes, and more.
  10. Silobreaker. This tool shows how news and people in the news impacts the global culture with current news stories, corresponding maps, graphs of trends, networks of related people or topics, fact sheets, and more.
  11. spock. Find anyone on the web who might not normally show up on the surface web through blogs, pictures, social networks, and websites here.
  12. The WWW Virtual Library. One of the oldest databases of information available on the web, this site allows you to search by keyword or category.
  13. pipl. Specifically designed for searching the deep web for people, this search engine claims to be the most powerful for finding someone.

Academic Search Engines and Databases

The world of academia has many databases not accessible by Google and Yahoo!, so give these databases and search engines a try if you need scholarly information.

  1. Google Scholar. Find information among academic journals with this tool.
  2. WorldCat. Use this tool to find items in libraries including books, CDs, DVDs, and articles.
  3. getCITED. This database of academic journal articles and book chapters also includes a discussion forum.
  4. Microsoft Libra. If you are searching for computer science academic research, then Libra will help you find what you need.
  5. BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine. This multi-disciplinary search engine focuses on academic research and is available in German, Polish, and Spanish as well as English.
  6. yovisto. This search engine is an academic video search tool that provides lectures and more.
  7. AJOL - African Journals Online. Search academic research published in AJOL with this search engine.
  8. HighWire Press. From Stanford, use this tool to access thousands of peer-reviewed journals and full-text articles.
  9. MetaPress. This tool claims to be the "world’s largest scholarly content host" and provides results from journals, books, reference material, and more.
  10. OpenJ-Gate. Access over 4500 open journals with this tool that allows you to restrict your search to peer-reviewed journals or professional and industry journals.
  11. Directory of Open Access Journals. This journal search tool provides access to over 3700 top "quality controlled" journals.
  12. Intute. The resources here are all hand-selected and specifically for education and research purposes.
  13. Virtual Learning Resource Center. This tool provides links to thousands of academic research sites to help students at any level find the best information for their Internet research projects.
  14. Gateway to 21st Century Skills. This resource for educators is sponsored by the US Department of Education and provides information from a variety of places on the Internet.
  15. MagBot. This search engine provides journal and magazine articles on topics relevant to students and their teachers.
  16. Michigan eLibrary. Find full-text articles as well as specialized databases available for searching.

Scientific Search Engines and Databases

The scientific community keeps many databases that can provide a huge amount of information but may not show up in searches through an ordinary search engine. Check these out to see if you can find what you need to know.

  1. Science.gov. This search engine offers specific categories including agriculture and food, biology and nature, Earth and ocean sciences, health and medicine, and more.
  2. WorldWideScience.org. Search for science information with this connection to international science databases and portals.
  3. CiteSeer.IST. This search engine and digital library will help you find information within scientific literature.
  4. Scirus. This science search engine moves beyond journal articles and also includes searches among such resources as scientists’ webpages, courseware, patents, and more.
  5. Scopus. Find academic information among science, technology, medicine, and social science categories.
  6. GoPubMed. Search for biomedical texts with this search engine that accesses PubMed articles.
  7. the Gene Ontology. Search the Gene Ontology database for genes, proteins, or Gene Ontology terms.
  8. PubFocus. This search engine searches Medline and PubMed for information on articles, authors, and publishing trends.
  9. Scitopia. This "deep federated search" brings the best information from the fields of science and technology.
  10. Scitation. Find over one million scientific papers from journals, conferences, magazines, and other sources with this tool.

Custom Search Engines

Custom search engines narrow your focus and eliminate quite a bit of the extra information usually contained in search results. Use these resources to find custom search engines or use the specific custom search engines listed below.

  1. CustomSearchEngine.com. This listing includes many of the Google custom search engines created.
  2. CustomSearchGuide.com. Find custom search engines here or create your own.
  3. CSE Links. Use this site to find Google Coop custom search engines.
  4. PGIS PPGIS Custom Search. This search engine is customized for those interested in the "practice and science" of PGIS/PPGIS.
  5. Files Tube. Search for files in file sharing and uploading sites with this search engine.
  6. Trailmonkey’s Custom Search Engine. This outdoor adventure search engine will help find information such as trails, maps, and wildlife around the world.
  7. Rollyo. "Roll your own search engine" at this site where you determine which sites will be included in your searches.
  8. Webhoker.com. Use this custom search engine to find information about Northern Ireland.
  9. Figure Skating Custom Search Engine. Use this search engine to learn about figure skating. The more this search engine is used, the better the results become.
  10. Custom Search Engines. There are three custom search engines here, two of which may be relevant for anyone interested in Utah constitution or juvenile justice.
  11. Go Pets America Custom Search Engine. This search engine will help you find information on pets and animals, their health and wellness, jobs in the field, and more.

Collaborative Information and Databases

One of the oldest forms of information dissemination is word-of-mouth, and the Internet is no different. With the popularity of bookmarking and other collaborative sites, obscure blogs and websites can gain plenty of attention. Follow these sites to see what others are reading.

  1. Del.icio.us. As readers find interesting articles or blog posts, they can tag, save, and share them so that others can enjoy the content as well.
  2. Digg. As people read blogs or websites, they can "digg" the ones they like, thus creating a network of user-selected sites on the Internet.
  3. Technorati. Not only is this site a blog search engine, but it is also a place for members to vote and share, thus increasing the visibility for blogs.
  4. StumbleUpon. As you read information on the Internet, you can Stumble it and give it a thumbs up or down. The more you Stumble, the more closely aligned to your taste will the content become.
  5. Reddit. Working similarly to StumbleUpon, Reddit asks you to vote on articles, then customizes content based on your preferences.
  6. Twine. With Twine you can search for information as well as share with others and get recommendations from Twine.
  7. Kreeo.com. This collaborative site offers shared knowledge from its members through forums, blogs, and shared websites.
  8. Talk Digger. Find information on the Internet based on what others are saying about it. Members discuss web sites, blogs, and specific topics here.

Tips and Strategies

Searching the deep web should be done a bit differently, so use these strategies to help you get started on your deep web searching.

  1. Don’t rely on old ways of searching. Become aware that approximately 99% of content on the Internet doesn’t show up on typical search engines, so think about other ways of searching.
  2. Search for databases. Using any search engine, enter your keyword alongside "database" to find any searchable databases (for example, "running database" or "woodworking database").
  3. Get a library card. Many public libraries offer access to research databases for users with an active library card.
  4. Stay informed. Reading blogs or other updated guides about Internet searches on a regular basis will ensure you are staying updated with the latest information on Internet searches.
  5. Search government databases. There are many government databases available that have plenty of information you may be seeking.
  6. Bookmark your databases. Once you find helpful databases, don’t forget to bookmark them so you can always come back to them again.
  7. Practice. Just like with other types of research, the more you practice searching the deep web, the better you will become at it.
  8. Don’t give up. Researchers agree that most of the information hidden in the deep web is some of the best quality information available.

Helpful Articles and Resources for Deep Searching

Take advice from the experts and read these articles, blogs, and other resources that can help you understand the deep web.

  1. Deep Web - Wikipedia. Get the basics about the deep web as well as links to some helpful resources with this article.
  2. Deep Web - AI3:::Adaptive Information. This assortment of articles from the co-coiner of the phrase "deep web," Michael Bergman offers a look at the current state of deep web perspectives.
  3. The Invisible Web. This article from About.com provides a very simple explanation of the deep web and offers suggestions for tackling it.
  4. ResourceShelf. Librarians and researchers come together to share their findings on fun, helpful, and sometimes unusual ways to gather information from the web.
  5. Docuticker. This blog offers the latest publications from government agencies, NGOs, think tanks, and other similar organizations. Many of these posts are links to databases and research statistics that may not appear so easily on typical web searches.
  6. TechDeepWeb.com. This site offers tips and tools for IT professionals to find the best deep web resources.
  7. Digital Image Resources on the Deep Web. This article includes links to many digital image resources that probably won’t show up on typical search engine results.
  8. Federated Search 101. Learn about federated search tools in this article that will be helpful to businesses thinking about purchasing a federated search product.
  9. Timeline of events related to the Deep Web. This timeline puts the entire history of the deep web into perspective as well as offers up some helpful links.
  10. The Deep Web. Learn terminology, get tips, and think about the future of the deep web with this article.

--

https://adwords.google.com/

Advertise your business on Google

No matter what your budget, you can display your ads on Google and our advertising network. Pay only if people click your ads.

 

12/1/2008 12:34 PM

http://www.news.com.a

Papua New Guinea women kill males babies to end tribal war

• Male children mean more war
• Women sick of the conflict
• Drastic action "will end tribal war"
WOMEN in Papua New Guinea's Highland region are killing their male babies to end a tribal war that has gone on for more than 20 years.
Two women from the Eastern Highlands spoke of the slaughter to PNG's National newspaper during a three-day peace and reconciliation course in the region's capital of Goroka.
 

Rona Luke and Kipiyona Belas, from two warring tribes, said male infanticide reduced the cyclical payback violence infamous in Highlands tribal fights.

If women stopped producing males, their tribe's stock would go down and this would force the men to end their fight, the women said.

"All the womenfolk agreed to have all babies born killed because they have had enough of men engaging in tribal conflicts and bringing misery to them," Ms Luke said.

The women could not give a figure on how many male babies had been killed.

Ms Belas said getting food was hard as husbands kept fighting and mothers and children were left to fend for themselves.

The Salvation Army is working with various tribes to bring peace to the warring groups, one particular fight continues after starting in 1986 over sorcery claims.

The Salvation Army told the Australian Associated Press that women were so fed up with the ongoing violence that they were taking drastic steps.

"This situation shows the extreme frustration the women have with the men in these areas," a spokesman said.

--

http://awesome.goodmagazine.com

cost of iraq war

 

http://tools.dynamicdrive.com/favicon/

Use this online tool to easily create a favicon (favorites icon) for your site. A favicon is a small, 16x16 image that is shown inside the browser's location bar and bookmark menu when your site is called up. It is a good way to brand your site and increase it's prominence in your visitor's bookmark menu.

·                         Supported file formats: gif, jpg, png, and bmp.

·                         Use a gif or png with transparency if you require it.

·                         Maximum file size: 150.00 kB.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Top 10 Bad Things Obama Learned in His Intelligence Briefing

Yesterday, President-Elect Barack Obama received his first deep intelligence briefing, also known as The Bad News. Here is what he learned:

1. Chief source of carbon emission: Printing money for the bail-out.

2. The jobless rate counts looking for work as a full-time job.

3. Loose nukes now available only in blister-packs of six.

4. The Taliban are now twice as fierce, having discovered the awesome power of a good breakfast.

5. World of Warcraft: Totally fact-based.

6. American is unprepared for any biological attack that involves nookie.

7. The fate of the earth depends upon the President taking time every summer to personally fight the invasion of demonic space aliens who look surprisingly like brush.

8. The Constitution was suspended by secret Presidential order in 2002. The country is now governed by a Magic 8-Ball in a secret annex of the National Archive. The good news: Signs point to yes.

9. Sarah Palin accidentally was briefed first. So, yes, Alaska has been engaged in a secret air war with Russia, Africa is now a country...

10. The Iraq War has actually been over since 2005. What's been going on since then is what counts in Iraq as peace.

11. As the result of extensive plastic surgery, Osama Bin Laden has successfully penetrated this country, and, what's especially awkward for you, Mr. President-Elect, is that he's been living in the Chicago suburbs under the name ... wait for it ... "William Ayers."

http://www.calopps.org/default_nojs.cfm

for exciting careers in public employment

11/25/2008 2:17 AM

http://www.copyblogger.com/

Human beings are an intensely social creature. Most of us crave connection with a group of like-minded primates.

Direct marketing guru Dan Kennedy likes to say that most people are wandering around with umbilical cords in their hands, looking for someplace to plug them in.

In rough times more than ever, customers are looking for a magical parent to solve all their problems. Show that you’re strong and wise enough to help. Show that you’re trustworthy and that you care about making their lives better. And then do just that.

Even when times are good, providing a safe harbor will always speak to people’s core needs. And when times are bad, it’s that much more powerful.

We need to feel good

The decision to buy is made in an instant: a split second Yes fueled by desire and emotion. We want the emotional benefits that the product or service will give us.

Without that emotionally-driven Yes, we would only buy logical things like healthy food, modest and adequate shelter, and efficient, inexpensive transportation.

Even in the very worst of times, people will spend money on pleasure, beauty and comfort. No matter how practical your product is, think seriously about how you can communicate the ways it makes your customers feel good.

We also need to rationalize our emotions

On the other hand, even though we make emotional buying decisions, we don’t like to think of ourselves as toddlers with wallets. We’d much rather pretend that we make logical, rational decisions.

That’s why the best emotional promise needs to be backed up with some logical, reasonable facts. Customers need to reassure themselves that there’s a good “reason why” they’ve decided to make this purchase. They’re looking for a plausible because.

Without a logical reason (although “logical” can be a stretch in some cases), customers’ fear of feeling foolish will overcome their desire for the product. Don’t just stoke their emotional desire; satisfy their need for reasonable justification.

Business is not rational

Whether you’re a multibillion-dollar company or a lone freelance copywriter, business is about human feelings. Until our customers are robots or Vulcans, emotions will always be an essential component of business success.

If you need to attract more customers and make more sales (like anyone doesn’t), become a student of core human emotional needs. Speak respectfully to those needs, and keep your words and your actions in line with them. You’ll make more money, you’ll create a stronger bond with your customers, and you’ll enjoy your business more.

--

--

If government bailout is 7.7trillion and there are 300m Americans we are each on the hook for $25,666. At 25b auto bailout is $83 per person.

“ New sign in my office: ‘How do you want your answer? (Choose two) Immediate. Accurate. Brief.’

http://www.kungfugrippe.com/

Elsewhere: MM | 43F | 5 | YLNT | Tweet

http://www.dailyseoblog.com

How to get indexed by Google in 48 hours

--

http://www.noupe.com/

13+ Fantastic Tools For Knowing How They’re Doing It

11/24/2008 5:30 AM

http://www.time.com

YouTube, Politico, Huffington Post, Twitter and Facebook became daily or hourly necessities for millions. In 2004 newspaper websites were still mostly "shovelware"--the paper edition reproduced.

In 2004 there were probably still more people reading blogs than writing them. Not so now, or so it seems. And even if most blogs are skippable, there are one or two or maybe two dozen worth checking out a couple of times--or maybe three or four times--a day just to be sure you're not missing anything. (See the Top 25 blogs.)

But many readers may be reaching the point with blogs and websites that I reached long ago with the Sunday New York Times Magazine--actively hoping there isn't anything interesting in there because then I'll have to take the time to read it.

http://sixrevisions.com/

30 Beautiful Examples of Grunge in Web Design

Grunge is a stylish design trend that gives web designs a less uniform, less structured, and more organic look-and-feel. It’s characterized by textured/gritty backgrounds, uneven/torn edges, worn, faded and aged graphic elements inspired by urban and industrial architecture and scenery. It gives a way for designers to venture away from the glossy, flashy, and rigid design elements that characterize the "Web 2.0"style – a style that still dominates mainstream web design.

In this collection, you’ll find 30 excellent examples of grunge in web design for your inspiration. From portfolios and fashion websites to online stores and church sites – you’ll find a variety of websites that choose to "dirty up" their web design.

Related Content

--

http://www.noupe.com/fonts/

The web is rich with creative and amazing fonts, and the choice is enormous. So today we would like to present 50 incredible FONT which you can use for web or print design. This collection will sure help you improve your typography skills! Let’s take a close look at some of the most beautiful fonts we’ve found on the web. Some amazing fonts are missing? Let us know!

Also:

40+ Extremely Beautiful FONTS Hand-picked from deviantART

http://www.noupe.com/fonts

--

http://www.toxel.com/

Creative and Unusual Lamp Designs

http://www.toxel.com/

·  Toxel.com

·  Design

·  Inspiration

·  Tech

·  Contact Us

·  RSS

--

http://www.techcrunch.com/

Jerry Yang is the $1.8 billion man. The stock market thinks Yahoo is worth that much more without Yang at the helm.

That’s approximately how much the market capitalization of Yahoo’s stock went up this morning, with the first trade after last night’s announcement that Yang would be stepping down as CEO. The shares were up nearly 12 percent in early morning trading.

--

11/18/2008 10:55 AM

http://www.problogger.net/

Advantages to having a blogging buddy.

  1. You can feedback on posts, prior to pressing publish. Writing without a sounding board can be difficult. Writing without a sounding board when we’re about to publish our thought for world consumption can be terrifying. Having someone with whom to send our words for perusal can make all the difference in how we feel about our work. Sometimes, feedback is as simple as a good job! or a quickly corrected comma. Other times a slow down! or a what exactly are you trying to say? might be more in order. Good or bad, a buddy can help lead us in the right direction
  2. You can have someone to vent to, who understands your situation. Blogging is difficult. No one understands this essential truth better than another blogger. Most of us suffer common setbacks. Simply knowing that someone else is feeling, or has felt, something similar, can be all we need to know our feelings are only fleeting.
  3. You can work on projects together. Collaboration is one of the great joys of blogging. Cooperation comes in many forms, and often by surprise, but pooling minds on a joint project offers pleasure like little else. Swapping ideas through email or instant message is immediate and often amusing. Inspiration will surely abound, and take you to wonderful places you were never even planning to go.
  4. You can share link love. It’s well established that links are the currency of the net. They strengthen our rating with analytic aggregators such as Technorati and Alexa, while erecting new roads for readers to reach our words. Having a buddy that we can count on to help generate links is like having a friend post flyers to our show on telephone poles across the city.
  5. You can share each others posts through social media and with other bloggers. Social media plays an enormous role in helping drive blogs toward success, and can sometimes be the difference between breaking out and blowing up. When it comes to outlets such as Twitter and StumbleUpon, every blogger brings a different audience. Even with audience overlap, a post spread by your blogging buddy will extend to a different audience than your own.
  6. You can share communities. Each post develops our community further. Every blog has its own set of readers and subscribers who drop in to say hello. Commitment is a natural byproduct of community. A buddy blogger can ask his audience to give your work a chance. A portion of the audience will be happy to comply, and that chance could make all the difference.
  7. You can help each other stay motivated as you share encouragement. The peaks and valleys of daily blogging lend themselves well to the buddy system. Just as one buddy sees a lull in subscribers, the other may be experiencing a peak. That peak could be a prompt for encouragement. Your buddy is part of your team. Success for one means success for all. All it takes is the proper mindset; choose to celebrate successes, and supersede all difficulty.
  8. You can guest post for each other. Guest posts are an excellent way to build your name brand, while continuing to refine your craft. Landing a guest post, especially in the beginning, can be difficult. With a blogging buddy, it’s as simple as trading baseball cards.
  9. You can share each others talents. People are different, and bring separate skill sets to the table. Some people tend to be more creative, while others might display a stronger technical side. Fate seems to have an odd way of laying opposites together, and often you will find that the talents of your blogging buddy, or buddies, will nicely compliment your own.
  10. You’ll have twice the blogging power at your disposal. Getting started blogging is hard, gaining momentum even more so. Having twice the reach, or at least twice the intent, can be the difference between barely eking by, and soaring through the stratosphere.

The main thing to remember is patience. As in life, true friendship cannot be forced. Be honest about who you are and what you offer, and the right buddy will find you.

11/18/2008 3:31 AM

http://www.thrfeed.com/

November 17, 2008

Study: Unhappy people watch more TV

An extensive new research study has found that unhappy people watch more TV while those consider themselves happy spend more time reading and socializing.

The University of Maryland analyzed 34 years of data collected from more than 45,000 participants and found that watching TV might make you feel good in the short term but is more likely to lead to overall unhappiness. 

"The pattern for daily TV use is particularly dramatic, with 'not happy' people estimating over 30% more TV hours per day than 'very happy' people," the study says. "Television viewing is a pleasurable enough activity with no lasting benefit, and it pushes aside time spent in other activities -- ones that might be less immediately pleasurable, but that would provide long-term benefits in one’s condition. In other words, TV does cause people to be less happy."

The study, published in the December issue of Social Indicators Research, analyzed data from thousands of people who recorded their daily activities in diaries over the course of several decades. Researchers found that activities such as sex, reading and socializing correlated with the highest levels of overall happiness.

Watching TV, on the other hand, was the only activity that had a direct correlation with unhappiness.

"TV is not judgmental nor difficult, so people with few social skills or resources for other activities can engage in it," says the study. "Furthermore, chronic unhappiness can be socially and personally debilitating and can interfere with work and most social and personal activities, but even the unhappiest people can click a remote and be passively entertained by a TV. In other words, the causal order is reversed for people who watch television; unhappiness leads to television viewing."

Unhappily married couples also watch more TV: "(Happily married couples) engage in 30% more sex, and they attend religious services more and read newspapers on more days," reports the study. "While those not happy with their marriages watch more TV."

Yet there may be good news here for broadcasters. Commenting on the study, co-author John P. Robinson said the worsening economy could boost TV viewing.

"Through good and bad economic times, our diary studies, have consistently found that work is the major activity correlate of higher TV viewing hours," Robinson says. "As people have progressively more time on their hands, viewing hours increase."

Concludes the study: "These points have parallels with addiction; since addictive activities produce momentary pleasure but long-term misery and regret. People most vulnerable to addiction tend to be socially or personally disadvantaged, with TV becoming an opiate."

--

http://www.iphoneatlas.com

Google Voice Search Function Finally Debuts — and It Works Really Well

Days after it was expected to debut, a voice search function has been added to the Google application for the iPhone. The feature allows users to speak a search term, which is then transmitted to Google’s servers, recognized, then entered as a search term.

In initial testing, the feature works surprisingly well, easily recognizing simple, single words like “animals” and “cookies,” and even complex phrases like “what is my dog thinking” (don’t ask). In fact, despite our skepticism, this feature might actually be faster than the iPhone’s onscreen keyboard for complex phrases. Add to this well-oiled functionality the fact that search results are displayed in an iPhone-optimized format, and the app’s access to other time-saving features, Google’s iPhone offering may have actually become useful.

--

http://www.wfs.org/

Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet, virtual reality, and the end of the Cold War.

Here are the editors' top 10 forecasts from Outlook 2009:

1. Everything you say and do will be recorded by 2030. By the late 2010s, ubiquitous, unseen nanodevices will provide seamless communication and surveillance among all people everywhere. Humans will have nanoimplants, facilitating interaction in an omnipresent network. Everyone will have a unique Internet Protocol (IP) address. Since nano storage capacity is almost limitless, all conversation and activity will be recorded and recoverable. -Gene Stephens, "Cybercrime in the Year 2025," July-Aug 2008, p. 34

2. Bioviolence will become a greater threat as the technology becomes more accessible. Emerging scientific disciplines (notably genomics, nanotechnology, and other microsciences) could pave the way for a bioattack. Bacteria and viruses could be altered to increase their lethality or to evade antibiotic treatment. Another long-term risk comes from nanopollution fallout from warfare. Nanoparticles could potentially cause new diseases with unusual and difficult-to-treat symptoms, and they will inflict damage far beyond the traditional battlefield, even affecting future generations. -Barry Kellman, "Bioviolence: A Growing Threat," May-June 2008, p. 25 et seq.; Antonietta M. Gatti and Stefano Montanari, "Nanopollution: The Invisible Fog of Future Wars," May-June 2008, p. 32

3. The car’s days as king of the road may soon be over. More powerful wireless communication that reduces demand for travel, flying delivery drones to replace trucks, and policies to restrict the number of vehicles owned in each household are among the developments that could thwart the automobile’s historic dominance on the environment and culture. If current trends were to continue, the world would have to make way for a total of 3 billion vehicles on the road by 2025. -Thomas J. Frey, "Disrupting the Automobile’s Future," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 39 et seq.

4. Careers, and the college majors for preparing for them, are becoming more specialized. An increase in unusual college majors may foretell the growth of unique new career specialties. Instead of simply majoring in business, more students are beginning to explore niche majors such as sustainable business, strategic intelligence, and entrepreneurship. Other unusual majors that are capturing students’ imaginations: neuroscience and nanotechnology, computer and digital forensics, and comic book art. Scoff not: The market for comic books and graphic novels in the United States has grown 12% since 2006. -World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2008, p. 8

5. There may not be world law in the foreseeable future, but the world’s legal systems will be networked. The Global Legal Information Network (GLIN), a database of local and national laws for more than 50 participating countries, will grow to include more than 100 counties by 2010. The database will lay the groundwork for a more universal understanding of the diversity of laws between nations and will create new opportunities for peace and international partnership. -Joseph N. Pelton, "Toward a Global Rule of Law: A Practical Step Toward World Peace," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 25

6. Professional knowledge will become obsolete almost as quickly as it’s acquired. An individual’s professional knowledge is becoming outdated at a much faster rate than ever before. Most professions will require continuous instruction and retraining. Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies will necessitate job education for almost every worker. At any given moment, a substantial portion of the labor force will be in job retraining programs. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World, Part Two," May-June 2008, p 41

7. The race for biomedical and genetic enhancement will-in the twenty-first century-be what the space race was in the previous century. Humanity is ready to pursue biomedical and genetic enhancement, says UCLA professor Gregory Stock, the money is already being invested, but, he says, "We’ll also fret about these things-because we’re human, and it’s what we do." -Gregory Stock quoted in "Thinking Globally, Acting Locally, Living Personally," Nov-Dec 2007, p. 57

8. Urbanization will hit 60% by 2030. As more of the world’s population lives in cities, rapid development to accommodate them will make existing environmental and socioeconomic problems worse. Epidemics will be more common due to crowded dwelling units and poor sanitation. Global warming may accelerate due to higher carbon dioxide output and loss of carbon-absorbing plants. -Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, "Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World, Part One," Mar-Apr 2008, p. 52

9. The Middle East will become more secular while religious influence in China will grow. Popular support for religious government is declining in places like Iraq, according to a University of Michigan study. The researchers report that in 2004 only one-fourth of respondents polled believed that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics were separated. By 2007, that proportion was one-third. Separate reports indicate that religion in China will likely increase as an indirect result of economic activity and globalization. -World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 10

10. Access to electricity will reach 83% of the world by 2030. Electrification has expanded around the world, from 40% connected in 1970 to 73% in 2000, and may reach 83% of the world’s people by 2030. Electricity is fundamental to raising living standards and access to the world’s products and services. Impoverished areas such as sub-Saharan Africa still have low rates of electrification; for instance, Uganda is just 3.7% electrified. -Andy Hines, "Global Trends in Culture, Infrastructure, and Values," Sep-Oct 2008, p. 20


All of these forecasts plus dozens more were included in the report that scanned the best writing and research from THE FUTURIST magazine over the course of the previous year. The Society hopes this report, covering developments in business and economics, demography, energy, the environment, health and medicine, resources, society and values, and technology, will assist its readers in preparing for the challenges and opportunities in 2009 and beyond.

http://www.ginside.com/

Google has been holding a few tricks up their sleeve and have been waiting to pull them out. It’s time.

Google’s Android product is a platform for mobile phones, a competitor would be Windows Mobile.

Google announced that they are rolling out some software which will allow Android-powered phones to search Google Books’ platform for physical books. It does it by utilizing the camera and built-in technology to detect the ISBN (International Serialized Book Number) of a book and, without even clicking the shutter, it will provide you options to search full text of the book.

This is a huge, HUGE, innovation. But it really brings me back to the days of education. Why would an everyday person need to search for a specific quote or line in a book? I certainly don’t have a need for it. Sure, while in school, this would have been an amazing tool to have in hand so I could easily find things in a book. But everyday application today, not so much for me. Within that context, how many students have Android-powered phones?

There are still the same limitations of Google Books Search, that not every single book ever written is indexed [yet]. Additional limitations include potential hiccups in the software. As the first release of the application, it’s bound to have a bug here or there.

But retrospectively looking at this product, did you ever think you would be able to search a book in front of you, with a device that fits in the palm of your hand? I certainly never imagined that.

This is just one product that I can see Google coming out with in the future. Let this be the start of a revolution [again] for mobile applications.

http://w5.cs.uni-sb.de/

Human Computer Interaction in Science Fiction Movies

http://news.bbc.co.uk

Shares in Citigroup dropped 4.4% to $9.10 in early trading. They are down almost 70% this year.

Citigroup, one of the largest US banks, is one of nine financial institutions benefiting from the US government's bail-out programme.

The Treasury announced last month that it would be providing cash injections worth $125bn to be shared between Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Merrill Lynch.

Citigroup has lost more than $20bn (Ł13.6bn) in the past year because of the global financial crisis.

It has reported four straight quarterly losses and some analysts believe the bank will not make a profit again until 2010.

http://www.butterbeehappy.com/

Bee a bit happier

Journal your happy thoughts each day and see what's making your friends and family happy.

Harvard, UC Davis, and Miami University research has shown that jotting down 5 thoughts of gratitude each day can make you a happier person.

Gratitude makes you happier.

People are always looking for the secret to being happier. ButterBeeHappy.com doesn't claim to fix all problems, but our users do claim to feel happier after keeping a journal of gratitude and happy thoughts. ButterBeeHappy.com is based on research by psychologists Ben-Shahar, Emmons, and McCullough. Tal Ben-Shahar wrote the book Happier which directly influenced ButterBeeHappy.com. It just makes sense- most of us don't stop to think about the things that make us happy.

Who's on ButterBeeHappy.com?

Right now ButterBeeHappy.com is a fledgling community, but it is rapidly growing. All sorts of people are journaling their gratitude and happiness on ButterBeeHappy.com. You can explore what other users have posted, which is a very healthy exercise generating gratitude and happiness.

Positive emotions help you thrive.

Positive emotions and psychology help people thrive. In life there are many factors that can get people down, such as the economy. However, psychological research shows that economic factors are a poor predictor of overall happiness. Can you guess what is a good predictor of happiness? That's right, gratitude. When you jott down your 5 happy thoughts each day you are really practicing being grateful, and are thus appreciating your life to its full extent.

"The test of all happiness is gratitude"-G.K. Chesterton 1908

http://www.googletutor.com/

Google Tutor’s Google Search Manual

Running a Google query means entering your search criteria into Google’s search field and requesting the search results. This search field is found either on the main Google page:

In addition, you might find a search field on some web sites. Wherever you find it, you can use the same query for the same results (be aware that some web sites may have “site-flavored” search boxes which limit your search to certain pre-selected categories).

What criteria to use for the Search Query?

Your natural inclination is to enter whatever word you think might match up with the sites you are looking for. This word is called a keyword. After pressing enter, the search results page will display all the sites that contain the keyword you entered. The keyword could be in the text, title URL or hidden META tags. Note: that capitalization is ignored.

Unless this keyword is unique (which is difficult with gazillions of web page indexed), you are going to have a very long list of search results. For example, searching for [supercalifragilisticexpialidocious] resulted in 43,300 pages! Obviously, you need to narrow it down. Imagine if you keyed in a more popular word. Let’s say you are a golf enthusiast and key in [golf]. That will give you 147,000,000 results.

Now if you just wanted the most popular, general sites for golf, you could find some in your results list because the most popular pages rise to the top. Our search brought up golf.com, golfweb.com, golfchannel.com, golddigest.com and more on the first page. If that’s the type of popular site you need to find, that might work for you. But, usually you need to look deeper than that. So how do you do that?

Multiple Keywords

You can start by entering more than one keyword. If you key more than one, all keywords must be found on the page. To get technical, this is called a logical AND. Returning to the subject of golf, let’s say you want to find out about the golf scene in Boise, ID. Perform the search with the query [golf Boise]. This returns 1,100,000 results.

You get the basic idea. You can keep adding more keywords to narrow down the list. You might add words like spa and country club to try to find exactly the type of place you are looking for. Don’t let the huge number of pages that come up scare you; remember, the list is sorted in order of relevance. Google will display the most popular sites first. At the tail end of the results listing you might find pages in which people simply mentioning it in their family blog or something.

Keep in mind that Google gives higher priority to pages with search terms that are found in the same order as you structured them in your query, and if the words on the page are close in proximity.

Compound Words

There are quite a few compound words that are sometimes found combined into one word, sometimes separated into multiple words and sometimes connected together with a hyphen. If you are searching for one of these words, is it important which format you use to search? You bet it is, if you don’t want to miss anything.

First off, let’s make sure we all understand the types of conditions I’m talking about. I don’t know about other languages, but the English language can be very confusing in its seemingly arbitrary spelling of compound words and phrases. A word phrase can be spelled as a solid compound, a hyphenated compound or spaced words. Do you spell it database, data base or data-base, website, web site or web-site, fundraiser, fund raiser or fund-raiser? There are hundreds of words and phrases that are like this.

And then there are the acronyms or made up sets of letters/words that have an irregular use of the hyphen. Take for example the Apple operating system OS X. Or is it OSX or OS-X? There is obviously one preferred usage, developed by Apple, but it doesn’t mean everyone spells it that way.

So, how do you search for these? You don’t want to miss anything, and you certainly don’t want to perform three searches. You also don’t want to have to tale the time to build a query with the OR operator.

If you were to perform the search as spaced words, such as [left handed], you’ll get pages with ‘left handed’ and ‘left-handed’, but no ‘lefthanded’. If you search for [lefthanded] you’ll only get ‘lefthanded’.

But, if you search for [left-handed] you get it all!

ANSWER: Always search for compound words with the hyphen and you’ll pull up pages that may use all three variations..

Automatic Exclusion of Common Words, Punctuation and Special Characters

Google ignores common words and characters such as “the” and “how”, as well as certain single digits and single letters. This is done because they are virtually omnipresent and therefore slow down and expand your search without improving results. If Google considered any of your words to be common words it will note this in a message just below the search field.

If a common word is essential to getting the results you want, you can include it by putting a “+” sign in front of it. (Be sure to include a space before the “+” sign.) Enclosing multiple words in quotes to form a phrase (more on that later) does the same thing.

Other than the special characters you’ll learn about later that have special relevance to Google, most punctuation will be ignored. There is an exception, and that is the apostrophe since it is used in contractions.

Word Variations (Stemming)

Google uses something called stemming technology. When it considers it appropriate, it will search not only for your search terms, but also for words that are similar to some or all of those terms. What it does, essentially, is match other versions of a word by chopping it down to its basic form and matching different endings. Take the word “runs”. Its most basic form is “run”. Stemming will match run, runs, running, runner and runners. These stemmed words are assigned less relevance because they aren’t an exact match. But they are still considered a match.

Google supports powerful operators which can be special characters or words that modify the search query. In this section we’ll look at the basic–not to be confused with weak–operators which include the OR operator and the special character operators:

  • OR word or “|” character
  • Double Quotation Marks (” “)
  • Plus sign (+)
  • Minus sign (-)
  • Tilde (~) character
  • Asterisk (*) character
  • Double Periods (..)
  • Parenthesis (())

As I’m explaining these, I’ll be tempted to use advanced operators (which I’ll describe later) to improve them, but I can’t until we get to that chapter. So, as you are reading, know that there are often better ways to do what I’m showing you and you’ll soon learn how.

The OR Operator

When you build your search with multiple keywords, Google searches for these as logical ANDs. This means that all of the keywords must be satisfied. For example, search query [red blue] means pages with both red and blue will be selected. But what if you wanted to search for either of the words? Do this by placing an OR between the words like this: [red OR blue]. The OR operator must be in caps; a lower case OR will be considered one of the stop words and ignored. Better yet, if you want to save a keystroke and not take the chance of keying it in lowercase, you can use the pipe character “|” instead of the word OR. These are both valid OR queries:

[Uranus OR Neptune]
[Uranus | Neptune]

OR sets the either or condition between the element preceding it and the element following it. It does not perform an OR between multiple words on either side of it (unless they are a phrase or group, which you’ll read about in a moment). So, the following query does not search for either “red couch” or “blue sofa”. What it does instead is search for “red” and “sofa” and either “couch” or “blue.” You’ll end up with pages that have “red”, “couch” and “sofa” or “red”, “blue” and “sofa”–not what you are looking for.

[red couch | blue sofa]

So, how would you request either “red couch” or “blue sofa”? By using phrases, up next…

Double Quotation Marks for Exact Phrase Search

When you enter multiple keywords, Google searches for all of those keywords. It gives precedence to finding the keywords together just as they are keyed, and those in close proximity, but it will also pull up pages having the keywords anywhere in the page.

But, you can search for only the exact set of keywords, in the order you keyed them, by enclosing them in quotation marks. The words within the quotes are called a phrase. In addition, enclosing the search terms in quotation marks will stop word stemming (finding variations of the word, not to be confused with synonyms). For this reason, you could use quotation marks to enclose a single word simply to find that exact word without Google word-stemming it.

Here is an example of using a phrase to better find pages with Crater lake Lodge in them:

[Crater Lake Lodge] 151,000 pages, not all about the Crater Lake Lodge
["Crater Lake Lodge"] 6,550 pages virtually all referencing the Crater Lake Lodge

Getting back to the “red couch” or “blue sofa” query we did earlier, you can now do that with this query that uses phrases:

["red couch" | "blue sofa"]

Using the “+” Sign to Force a Search on a Word

Google ignores certain “common words” (called stop words) because they appear too frequently in pages and would thus pull up too many pages that would not satisfy the search request properly. Using the “+” sign will force Google to treat the word following it (without a space in between) as a valid search term.

Frankly, there are not many situations that using this does any more than enclosing a word or words in quotation marks. For example, Google tells you that if searching for Star Wars Episode I you should use [Star Wars Episode +I]. Well, it would be better as ["Star Wars" "Episode I"]. This way you won’t get someone who wrote “I sure love that episode of Star Wars, the second one.” (I created two phrases in my search in case there was any punctuation between Star and Episode.)

There are valid situations in which you will need the “+” sign, and you’ll know it when you come across it.

Omitting Pages with Certain Keywords by using the “-” Sign

This special character is much more useful than the “+” sign. It tells Google to omit pages that have a particular word or phrase in it. Often words have multiple meanings and you end up with results that include pages that have nothing remotely to do with what you were interested in.

For example, let’s say that you were interested in learning about alternative energy, with the exclusion of solar energy since you already know about that. The following would satisfy that search:

[alternative energy -solar]

Powerful Synonym Search with the “~” Sign

Now this is a great search operator! By placing a “~” sign (called a tilde) right in front of a word (no space in between), you are instructing Google to search not only for the word following the tilde, but also its synonyms. Without doing this in certain types of searches you will miss many valuable sites. Let’s say that you want to find sites that offer a primer on alternative energy. You know that the word “primer” is not the only way to say “an introduction to” or “the basics of” but you don’t want to try to think up all the synonyms and build a massive OR query. So, you use the tilde like this:

["alternative energy" ~primer]

You should execute this query by clicking the link to study the results. Looking at just the first page, you’ll see pages that use the words, “tips,” “basics,” “review” and “introduction.” Although not “primer”, the sites appear to be what we are looking for. Using just one word like “primer” would have missed many sites of interest.

Wildcard Search with the Asterisk

You can use the asterisk “*” as a wildcard in your search query. It’s not the type of wildcard people are used to. It’s really more of a placeholder for a single word. It means that wherever there is an asterisk, the search will accept any word.

This works well if you know a phrase but forgot one of the words. For example, let’s say you know there is a story called Little somethingg Riding Hood, but for the life of you, you cannot remember what that missing word is. You can search for it like this:

["little * riding hood"]

Oh yeah, it was Little Red Riding Hood!

Use multiple asterisks for multiple wildcard words. For example, the following looks for pages that have the words “brown” and “cow” with three words in between them:

["brown *** cow"]

I don’t think this is extremely useful. A traditional wildcard would have been better. But, it’s there if you need it.

Grouping with Parenthesis

Another very powerful operator is the parenthesis characters, used for grouping. It means that the operator (including the always assumed invisible AND operator) is to perform its operation on the group within the parenthesis. This is is primarily used with the OR operator.

Let’s say that you wanted to search for pages that were about silver or gold coins. You could do ["silver coins" | "gold coins"] but using grouping is better if the query becomes more complicated. The following search query looks for pages that deal with silver, gold or platinum dimes or quarters. This would be too unwieldy with just OR’s.

[(silver | gold | platinum) (dimes | quarter)]

Now that is cool!

We’ve been through the basic operators that tell Google what to search for. Now we look at the advanced operators that instruct Google where in the pages or site, or even in which site, it should look to execute the query. These are essential in fine-tuning your search query.

You’ll identify these operators easily because they are a word ending with a colon. Here is a list of the operators:

  • site:
  • inurl:
  • allinurl:
  • intitle:
  • allintitle:
  • intext:
  • allintext:

Do not include a space between the operator and the word following it. Sometimes a space will work, but no space always works.

Note that all the operators that start with “all” cannot be mixed with other operators in a query, and cannot be preceded with a “-” sign.

Specify Site to Include (or exclude) with site:

The site: operator tells Google to search only within a particular site, or within sites with a certain Top Level Domain (domain suffix).

Let’s say you want to see only pages about Gmail help only in the Google site:

[gmail help site:google.com]

Maybe you’d like to see what tips (actually synonyms of tips) that sites besides Google have:

[gmail ~tips -site:google.com]

How about educational sites that discuss political correctness:

["political correctness" site:.edu]

Multiple sites require multiple site:’s–one per operator.

Specify Word in URL to Include (or exclude) with inurl:

With this operator you can restrict the results to pages that contain a word in the URL. The word can be anywhere in the URL, not just in the domain name. The following finds pages that contain “UCLA” in the URL, “prerequisites” anywhere on the page, but are not from UCLA’s own site:

[inurl:ucla prerequisites -site:ucla.edu]

Putting inurl: in front of every word in your query is equivalent to putting allinurl: at the front of your query.

Specify Multiple Words in URL with allinurl:

Allinurl: works similarly to inurl: except that it can be followed by multiple words. The search will be restricted to pages that contain all of the query words in the url. For example, the following query will return pages that have either “UCLA” and “Bruins” or “UCLA” and “Football” in the URL:

[allinurl: ucla bruins | football]

Specify Word in Site Title with intitle:

Web sites insert a title in each of their pages. This is what you see in the title bar of your browser. These titles are chosen carefully so that the search engines will index their site in the way which best represents its contents. So, being able to search only the title is a very, very powerful search. The operator intitle: performs this search.

Let’s say you are looking for pages that have “Anaconda” in the title, do not have “movie” in the title (Anaconda was the name of a movie) and have the word “danger” anywhere in the page:

[danger intitle:anaconda -intitle:movie]

Specify Multiple Words in Site Title to Include with allintitle:

Operator allintitle: is to intitle: as allinurl is to inurl. It will do what intitle: does, but all the words that follow it must be in the title. For example, the following search query will find all pages that have the words “fish”, “taco” and “recipe” in the title. This will give us a better chance at finding pages that actually have the recipes in them, rather than pages that merely mention them.

[allintitle: fish taco recipe]

Specify Word in Site Text with intext:

This operator looks for pages that have the word in just the text only, and not anywhere else in the page (URL, title, META keywords). I don’t really see much use for it; you might as well do a regular search. Here’s the format:

[intext:stupid]

Specify Multiple Words in Site Text with allintext:

I’ll bet you guessed what this does. It does what intext: does, but with multiple keywords. Here’s the format:

[allintext:really stupid]

Google has many interesting ways that it handles numbers. We’ve already discussed how it treats specialized numbers in our article, Specialized Number Search. And, we’ve discussed how you can turn Google into a calculator in the article, The Amazing Google Calculator — Hidden in Plain Sight. Now, we’re going to talk about how you can search Google using a range of numbers.

Essentially, you can tell Google that you want it to search for a range of numbers within the text, or wherever else you want with the advanced operators. It will find numbers equal to, or within the range, and understands numbers it finds on pages that have commas and decimal points in them. To tell Google to do a number range search, place two periods between to numbers, with no spaces, like this:

low_number..high_number

Let’s say you were trying to figure out who was president between 1800 and 1804. You could perform the following search:

[1801..1804 president]

You can search with decimal points in the lower or higher number, but it gets confused with commas. For example:

[15,000..30,000 miles] confuses it.

but [3.1..3.9 liters] does not.

You can also leave off one of the numbers to do a equal or greater than or less than or equal. For example, the following will search for numbers greater than or equal to 50000000 miles.

[50000000.. miles]

You are supposed to be able to search dollar amounts, but it did not work for me, as it also pulled up numbers within the range that were not dollar amounts.

Now we look at the site specific search operators. These don’t serve the same purpose as the other operators but three out of four are useful nonetheless.

  • info:
  • link:
  • related:
  • cache:

Make sure that there is no space after any of these operators.

Retrieve Page Information with info:

The operator info: will present some information that Google has about the web page whose URL you specify in its value. For example, the following query will show information about the Google homepage.

[info:www.google.com]

Boring. Doesn’t show anything of value. Maybe Google has some future plans for this.

This functionality is also accessible by typing the web page URL directly into a Google search box.

Search the Saved Cache Page with cache:

Google stores on its servers a cached copy of each page it has indexed. So, if a site is down, or the page has ceased to exist, you will be able to still view the cached version of the page. This is done with the cache: operator.

Start your query with cache: followed by the page whose cache you wish to view. For example, the following will show the cached page of drudgereport.com:

[cache:drudgereport.com]

You can include words that you want Google to highlight in the cached page by listing them after the web page name. For instance, adding “population” will show the cached content with the word “population” highlighted.

[cache:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California population]

This functionality is also accessible by clicking on the “Cached” link for any page listed on Google’s search results page.

Search for Pages with Links to a Web Page

The link: operator will list web pages that have links to the specified web page. For instance, the following query will list web pages that have links pointing to the brainboost.com homepage.

[link:www.brainboost.com]

Search for Similar Pages

The related: operator will list web pages that are similar to a specified web page. For instance, the following will list web pages that are similar to the e*trade homepage.

[related:www.etrade.com]

This functionality is also accessible by clicking on the “Similar Pages” link on Google’s results page.

WHAT! THERE’S A FORM FOR ALL THIS? NOW HE’S TELLING ME!

Sorry.

It was good to learn how to use them free-form in the search field, but for more complicated queries you can save time by going right to Google’s Advanced Search page. It has the power of most of the query operators built in to a more convenient interface for easier use.

To get to the Advanced Search page follow the link the right of the search box on the Google home page.

It lets you search for pages that:

  • contain ALL the search terms you type in
  • contain the exact phrase you type in
  • contain at least one of the words you type in
  • do NOT contain any of the words you type in
  • are written in a certain language
  • are created in a certain file format
  • have been updated within a certain period of time
  • contain numbers within a certain range
  • are within a certain domain, or website
  • don’t contain “adult” material

Find Results: The blue Find Results area is the heart of your search. You can fill in just one field or up to all four. These field relate to the basic operators we discussed a few chapters back.

Language: Use the Language selection to list only web sites in your language. This has been useful for me because for some reason I’m always coming up with German web pages in my searches.

File Format: The file format selection can include or exclude one file type.

Date: The Date option is extremely useful if you are looking for timely information (and who isn’t?). Let’s say that you are searching for the latest precautions on a medication—do you really want to risk reading a seven year old report on the subject? Set the Date selection to a recent time frame. The most recent time frame page you can specify is three months.

Occurrences: I really like this option that lets you select where the search terms must be located. There are several choices, but if you really need to find pages that are created in line with your search terms, asking to find the words in just the title will find the most relevant. (The title is not necessarily what you see on the header of the web site; it is what the web designer carefully crafted and placed in a “Meta” keyword in the “code” that tells the search engine what the site title is.)

All the choices relate directly to the advanced operators we discussed ina previous lesson. Read that page for details how each choice works. Anywhere on the page runs the query without any of the “where” advanced operators, in the title of the page is equivalent to allintitle, in the text of the page doesn’t have an equivalent, in the URL of the page is equivalent to allinurl, and in links to the page is equivalent to allinanchor.

Domain: The domain selection offers a way to do a search that either searches only within a particular site or avoids a particular site. This is equivalent to the insite: operator.

Safe Search: If you are going to search for anything other than porn, turning on the Safe Search is a good idea. This uses the preferences you set in the Search Preferences page.

Page Specific: The two options here mimic the related: and link: operators. Similar will list pages that Google feels are similar to the page you enter. Link will list pages that link to the page you enter.

Using the Google Directory

You wouldn’t know it by Google has a directory system where you can browse or search by category and subcateogries. You get to it by going to http://directory.google.com/ or searching Google for [google directory] and finding the link to it at the top of the search list. Here’s what you get:

This directory combines Google search technology with the Open Directory pages, developed by the 20,000 volunteer editors from the Open Directory Project, who review websites and classify them by topic. There are currently over 1.5 million URL’s categorized.

What’s the value of using the Google Directory over the regular Google web search?

  • You can search within any category or subcategory that you’ve drilled down to. You’ll get only results that fall within that category.
  • The Google Directory is particularly useful when you’re not sure how to narrow your search, and can help you understand how topics within a specific area are related and may suggest terms that are useful in conducting a search.
  • It can give you an idea of the breath of a given category
  • You might prefer to only see sites that have been evaluated by an editor.

When you select a main category, you will be shown a list of the various subcateories, any of which you can click to drill down further.

You can continue drilling down through subcategories until you reach a list of web sites under the lowest level subcategory. Any search within Google Directory will search only the category you are currently in. This can be very useful. For example, a search of the entire web for ‘Patriots’ might return pages on any number of subjects, But is you search “Patriots” within the category Sports > Football, American > Professional >, you will see only results related to the Detroit Lions football team.

Here’s a little trick: Let’s say you are in Google’s regular web search, looking for something there but would like to switch into a targeted directory category instead. You can do this quickly by searching for the words “google” and directory”, plus a word that might be in the heading of a category you want to zero in on. The first item on the resulting search page will bring you directly to the Google Directory category page

For example, if you are looking for a site on Astronomy, search for [google directory astronomy].

Try it out by clicking it. The first item you’ll see in the search results will be the Astronomy category page. Click that and you’ll go right to the category page.

Phone Book Search

Google provides an excellent directory of residential and business phone numbers in the United States. With Google Phonebook you’ll be able to:

  • search residential listings separately
  • search business listings separately
  • search both business and residential listings together
  • perform a reverse number lookup

Looking Up Phone Numbers

There are three operators that perform the searches for a phone number (we’ll get into the reverse directory lookup later). These are:

rphonebook: Search the residential listings

bphonebook: Search the business listings

phonebook: Search both residential and business listings

The format for these operators is [operator] [name] [location]

A search beginning with any of these operators brings up Google’s Phonebook search results page. A search of both business and residential combined (phonebook:) will list up to five matches for each of the two phone books, with links to display more. The other two operators display a longer initial page of matches.

The name search word, if residential, should be [first last], [initial last], or [last]. You can include the middle initial, but if the listing does not have it, you won’t get the match. I suggest trying “first name last name” first, and if that does not work out, try “first initial last” because if it’s listed that way using the first name won’t find it. Finally, if that does not work, try just the last name. And, if you have a strange first name and a last name I cannot even pronounce let alone spell (like a doctor I know who is named Proton), you can try the first name only

If you are looking for a business, Google Phonebook will simply look for a match of your search term word or phrase (multiple words are considered a phrase–won’t be reordered) in the listing business name.

The location can be a zip code, a city or a state. If you’re looking for a Smith, you better narrow it down to zip code if you can. If you’re looking up Shiblowski, it probably doesn’t matter.

Here is an example of finding a specific individual, zip code known:

rphonebook: Aaron Smith 92101

Here is an example of finding all plumbing companies in Los Angeles; state not required due to uniqueness):

bphonebook: Plumbing Los Angeles

Here is an example of finding a CPA in Belmont; unsure if listed in business or residential

phonebook: Stevens Belmont, CA

Wildcards are not permitted and just using a portion of a word does not act as a wildcard. For example, using “Plumb” will not find “Plumbing.” However, putting in one or more full words of a multi-word listing name will work as a “wild card;” i.e. “Plumbing” shows all listings with the word “Plumbing” in the name.

You can also use a logical OR for the residential or business name, but not for the location. This could be helpful if there are several ways similar business might describe themselves. For example, if you had some clothes you need altered you might need to look up both sewing and alterations. Or, for a residential listing you might not know if a last name is spelled Fleming or Flemming:

bphonebook: (sewing | alterations) los angeles

rphonebook: john (fleming | flemming) ca

Doing a Reverse Lookup

All of the three operators can be used for a reverse number lookup using the format [operator] [phone number]. Area code is required. The following looks up the phone number 805-555-1234 in either directory:

phonebook: 805-555-1234

Asking Google to Remove Your Listing

If you aren’t happy that Google has your name listed, you can go to the Google Phonebook Removal Page to request that they remove it.

Movie and Showtimes Search

With the Google “movie” operator, you can look for movies by titles, actors, directors, genre, famous lines, plot details and more. In addition, you can find movie theaters and showtimes in your area.

The magical operator is “movie:”. If you key it into the search field (try it: [movie:]) you will get a listing of theaters in your area with showtimes. This is assuming you have already told Google Local your local area; if not, you can do so when prompted. You can also ask Google for showtimes in any area like this [movie: 92101] or [movie: new york, ny].

From this display, you can toggle the listing to display by theater or by movie. You can click on the name of a movie and it will show you every theater in the area that is playing it, along with the times. Clicking showtimes that are links will bring you to a website where you can purchase tickets for the show online. Each movie has a link to the Internet Movie Database (IMDB) page for the movie, where you can find every bit of information you ever wanted to know about it.

If you already know the name of the movie that you wish look up, you can key in the movie: operator followed by the name of the movie. This will go directly to the local showtimes for that movie. Alternatively, you can even just key in the movie name alone. This will sometimes bring up a link to go to the showtimes as the first entry in the search results, like this:

Google can also provide lots of other information for a movie. First, I’ll explain all the ways you can find a movie: You can search by whatever information is part of the title, description or reviews. If the keyword–perhaps title, name of director or some other descriptive word–is found it will display a listing for that movie on the page with a short description, date and the number of reviews associated with it. Here are examples of some ways to find a movie:

[movie: Casablanca]
[movie: spielberg]
[movie: kid friendly]

It’s a really useful tool when you remember some details of the film, but you can’t remember the title. For example, let’s say that you cannot remember the name of the movie in which the U.S. Olympic hockey team beat the higher-rated Russian team. A search of [movie: hockey olympics united states Russian] pulls up the move Miracle, just what you were looking for.

From the resulting list of movies that match your search criteria, you select the movie for which want to pull up the Google movie page. This page will provide a list of the reviews (grouped by positive and negative), the average review score in stars, and a list of frequently mentioned terms in the reviews. Clicking on a review brings you directly to the source web page of the review. to try it out, click Click this link to see a movie review page for the movie Elf.

Yes, there are sites dedicated to showing you information on showtimes and the movies themselves. And, yes, they often have more information. But, as with many of Google’s special searches, there are is nothing faster than the Google way.

Stock Quotes and Information Search

You can use Google to get quick stock quotes and more stock information.

The fastest way to get a quote with some basic trading data is to simply key the stock symbol right into the search field. For example, give [goog] a try. You’ll get the following stock quotes one-box right at the top of your search results page.

It gives you a one-day mini-chart, price, volume, market cap and highs and lows for the day. I am very pleased to see that they included the real time price at the bottom, in addition to the 15-minute delayed price.

To get more detailed and complete information, you can then click in the one-box. This will produce the same result as if you wanted to go directly to the detailed stock data by entering into the search field the operator “stock:” followed by one or more stock symbols:

[stocks: goog]

Google doesn’t have it’s own stock information page (yet?) so it will pull up pages from other sites. Entering a Google stock: query, surprisingly, begins with a page from it’s arch rival, Yahoo!. Click the link above to see it in action in a new browser window.

http://www.nytimes.com/

Buying Binge Slams to Halt

Just as one crisis of confidence may be ending, another may be coming.

The panic on Wall Street has eased in the last few weeks, and banks have become somewhat more willing to make loans. But in those same few weeks, American households appear to have fallen into their own defensive crouch.

Suddenly, our consumer society is doing a lot less consuming. The numbers are pretty incredible. Sales of new vehicles have dropped 32 percent in the third quarter. Consumer spending appears likely to fall next year for the first time since 1980 and perhaps by the largest amount since 1942.

With Wall Street edging back from the brink, this crisis of consumer confidence has become the No. 1 short-term issue for the economy. Nobody doubts that families need to start saving more than they saved over the last two decades. But if they change their behavior too quickly, it could be very painful.

Already, Circuit City has filed for bankruptcy, and General Motors has said that it’s in danger of running out of cash. If the consumer slump continues, there is a potential for a dangerous feedback loop, in which spending cuts and layoffs reinforce each other.

“It’s a scary time,” Liz Allen, 29, a nursing student in Atlanta, told one of the Times reporters who fanned out across the country last weekend to ask people about the economy. “Worry can make the economy worse. If people worry too much, they won’t spend as much money. We’re seeing that happen, I think, already.”

It’s not entirely clear what anyone, including Barack Obama and his incoming administration, can do to temper the current worries. Mr. Obama has called for a stimulus package, which will make up for some of the consumer pullback. He and his advisers will also try to shore up confidence by projecting both a calm competence and a willingness to be more aggressive than the Bush administration. All of that should help.

But the stimulus package under discussion would bring no more than $150 billion in new government spending. The difference between a good year for consumer spending and a really bad one is about $400 billion.

So 2009 could turn out to be fairly miserable. The American consumer, long the spender of last resort for the global economy, may finally be spent.

You have heard such warnings before, I realize. For years, journalists and other economic worrywarts have been predicting a serious slump in consumer spending, and it did not happen. “Never underestimate the American consumer,” as a Wall Street cliché puts it.

Like most clichés, this one has some truth to it. Even before its recent housing-fueled boom, consumer spending was a bigger part of the American economy than of, say, the French or German economy. Americans like to buy things, and they also don’t tend to stay pessimistic for long.

Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, noted that his recent polls showed a sharp rise in the number of people planning to cut back on spending — but also a clear increase in the number who expected the economy to be in better shape next year. “What the American economy has going for it is the innate optimism of the public,” he said. “Americans get optimistic at the drop of a hat.”

Perhaps falling gas prices or Mr. Obama’s victory will shake them out of their torpor, Mr. Kohut said. A recent Gallup Poll found that consumer confidence rose slightly after the election. Based on recent history, it’s easy to imagine that the trend will continue and spending will soon bounce back.

Yet if the last year has proven anything, it’s that we should not assume something can’t happen simply because it hasn’t happened recently. Cold economic realities deserve the benefit of the doubt, even when they point to uncomfortable conclusions. And right now, the economic realities are pointing to a serious consumer recession.

Let’s start with the job market. It “already appears to be in worse shape than at any time during the recessions of the early 1990s or early 2000s,” says Lawrence Katz, a Harvard professor and former Labor Department chief economist. Unemployment is higher than the official rate suggests, and it is rising. Incomes, which for most families barely kept pace with inflation over the past decade, are now falling.

In all, the total amount of income taken home by American households will still probably rise next year, because the population will grow and government transfer payments (like jobless benefits) will surely increase. But total real income will rise a lot more slowly than it has been rising recently. One percent is a reasonable estimate.

The next question is how much of that income people will spend. For decades — from the 1950s through the 1980s — Americans spent about 91 percent of their income, on average, and put away the rest. In the last few years, they have spent close to 99 percent and saved only about 1 percent.

This simply cannot continue. For one thing, people need to pay down their debts and replenish their retirement accounts. For another, the psychology of spending and saving may well be changing. After the worst housing bust on record and one of the three worst bear markets of the last century, Americans are probably starting to realize that they can’t always fall back on ever-rising house values or stock values to make ends meet.

In the unlikely event that Mr. Obama decided to mimic President Bush’s post-9/11 plea for spending in the name of patriotism, it probably would not have the same impact. We’re not as flush as we were in 2001.

Economists are now busy trying to forecast how rapidly people will begin saving again, but it’s essentially an exercise in guesswork. There is no good historical analogy. A savings rate of about 3 percent seems plausible — higher, but not radically so — and that’s what some forecasters are projecting.

At that rate, consumer spending would decline about 1 percent next year, which is worse than it sounds. It would be the first annual decline since 1980, as I mentioned above, and the biggest since 1942. Relative to the typical increases from recent years, it would represent $400 billion in lost consumer spending. To find a stimulus package so big, you’d have to go to Beijing.

And get this: Spending in the last few months has actually been falling at an annual rate of 3 percent. So the seemingly pessimistic events I have sketched out here are based on the assumption that things are about to get better.

As Joshua Shapiro of MFR, an economic research firm in New York, puts it, the American consumer has quickly gone from being the world economy’s greatest strength to its Achilles’ heel. “Everything has changed,” he says. “The financial sector is deleveraging. Credit availability is severely constrained. Asset prices are deflating. And household balance sheets are severely stressed.”

It would be silly to insist that a few terrible months meant the end of American consumer culture. But it would be equally silly to assume that culture could never change. It might be changing right now.

--

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/

November 12, 2008, 11:42 am

Overreaction, or Coming Collapse?

Moody’s is out with its monthly default report today, finding that defaults among speculative-grade borrowers are rising, but are still not very high. It expects defaults to soar next year, with the global rate at or above the peak levels seen in the last two recessions.

This statistic caught my eye:

Moody’s speculative-grade corporate distress index — which measures the percentage of rated issuers that have debt trading at distressed levels — rose more than 60% from September’s 29.7% to 48.5% in October, marking the highest level since Moody’s launched the index in 1996. A year ago, the index was much lower at 4.6%.

So nearly five of every 10 risky borrowers have their debt trading as if default were likely. That could indicate panic, dysfunctional markets or impending disaster. Or it could reflect a combination of all three.

Either the economy is going to get much, much worse than anything we have lived through, or there are some bargains to be found in junk bonds and leveraged loans.

Addendum: As some commenters below note, I blew the numbers in the original version of this posting, saying 6 of 10 were in distress. My excuse is that I am home sick. Apologies.

--

(Check this guy out.  The above guy!)

--

11/14/2008 12:34 PM

http://searchengineland.com/

If you’re like me, you’ve noticed that Google has been making a lot of announcements this week. And last week. And the week before. And the week before that. But why? Silicon Alley Insider knows why: Google has finally started to fire slackers. That’s the word from an unnamed employee inside Googleplex who’s watched co-workers get the axe recently. (Look for plenty more announcements from non-slackers.)

Continuing the Google theme, the New York Times looks at what Google employees do after they leave the company — not the “slackers” who are getting canned, but the ones who are taking their GOOG windfall to leave and start their own companies. Some of these Xooglers have started a support group to help each other out in their post-Google lives. Says former Google product manager Avichal Garg, who recently co-founded PrepMe.com: “All of these people are leaving who are relatively young and ended up with fair bit of money. They didn’t walk away with $20 million, but they walked away with $2 million. And now the cost of running a new company is so low that essentially Google financed their start-up.”

--

http://palatnikfactor.com/

80% of Adults Purchase Online

MarketingCharts.com today reports on a Nielsen rating study which shows that nearly 80% of adults make purchases online. 80%! That is a VERY significant number. How can you not be establishing your business with this high percentage?

According to this study, “The #1 online transaction category was travel, with 38% of adult online consumers making at least one travel purchase on the web in the previous six months. Credit-card account management and home banking took the #2 and #3 spots, with 36% and 35% of consumers conducting transactions, respectively.

Clothes, shoes, accessories and books were also popular online purchases.”

**About the research: The online purchase research is based on a quarterly survey of approximately 36,000 US internet users age 18+.**

As travel being the highest purchase of adults online, you can imagine the CPC prices in Google. According to the keyword tool (which is always an estimate), here are some keywords and their estimated CPC:

bargain airline tickets $2.30
cheap one way airline tickets $4.49
cheap airline tickets com $3.42
airline tickets for cheap $1.99
cheap airfare tickets $2.23

So, with those prices (and there are thousands of keywords for this “niche”) and you can build an incredible campaign targetting every city, state, country, etc (I’d probably kill it…I just got an idea) So if you’re thinking about becoming an affiliate and doing any PPC promotion, take that into consideration as you’re probably competing around 23 advertisers in Travel!

--

http://palatnikfactor.com/

add a link to her from Area 47

http://www.nytimes.com/

In Tough Times, Tackle Anxiety First

With the economy in deep trouble, all sorts of people — consultants and authors among them — are offering all sorts of advice. Most of it is solid, if obvious: Find a good law firm, protect your credit, bill early and often, and perhaps the most self-evident, don’t hire unqualified workers.

Jeffrey Hull, a former corporate manager who now blends careers as an executive coach and psychotherapist, suggests a survival strategy that goes to the heart of the matter: Don’t panic.

“What I’m seeing most these days are small-business owners who are not only trying to shift gears in their business in the midst of a downturn,” he said, “but shifting their energy to stay out of fear mode, which is even more fundamental — and tougher to do.”

Mr. Hull said that when he joined Cor Business Inc., a start-up in Harrison, N.Y., as a partner five years ago, most of the clients were Fortune 500 companies like MasterCard, AT&T and Avaya. The main challenge for Cor Business back then was persuading executives to act on its recommendations, not helping them cope with angst.

This year, however, many of those customers tightened their budgets and gave bigger coaching roles to their own human resources departments or big firms like Drake Beam Morin. That, Mr. Hull said, was his first brush with fear. How were he and his partners, Morgan and Julie McKeown, who founded Cor Business in 2001, going to stanch the bleeding?

The answer was obvious, he said, though they did not recognize it at first. “We sat down and felt very negative,” he said. “We did brainstorming.” That was when they realized that almost all their growth this year had been with small businesses.

Early on, blinded by what he now calls an elitist mentality, the partners had been somewhat dismissive of the newcomers. But more and more entrepreneurs were knocking on their door, as the weakening economy prodded them to overcome their aversion to hiring outside experts. This year, firms with revenue of $1 million to $10 million account for close to half of Cor Business’s projected billings of nearly $2 million. Two years ago, firms of that size represented just 20 percent of Cor’s billings.

Better yet, said Mr. Hull, 49, small-business owners tend to be “more creative and more flexible” than sprawling, bureaucratic organizations. “They are great listeners, and act much more quickly,” he said.

Mr. Hull acknowledged that he had his own to-do list — what he calls his six-step program for “shifting yourself out of fear-based operating mode and getting back on track towards success.” The first step, he said, is to confess that you are, in fact, afraid. “Stress, worry and apprehension are all elements of fear,” he said. “It’s scary right now being in business, but that is what entrepreneurship is all about.”

The second step is to respond to that fear with calm deliberation rather than rash acts that may lead businesses into deeper trouble. “I hammer that distinction into clients,” he said.

The third is for businesses to refocus their efforts on undertakings they are good at. The fourth is to “reframe the story” by looking for new opportunities in difficult times.

The fifth is for entrepreneurs to maintain a balance between their work and personal lives. The sixth is to seek out a critic who will give unvarnished feedback about potential blind spots.

He said he used those principles in his coaching. One client, the co-owner of a real estate investment company in New Jersey, was thinking about scratching a plan to buy a warehouse and turn it into a supermarket, fearing that it would fail and he would be stuck with a lot of debt. “I asked him if he was focusing on what might not work or what could work,” Mr. Hull said. “He realized he had done a lot of research. He knew that people had to buy food, even in a recession. He turned his energy focus from negative to positive. I believe he is going to go through with the deal.”

The same client worried about his firm’s sluggish growth, Mr. Hull said. With revenue stuck at about $5 million, the client felt intimidated when he bumped into people like Donald Trump at an industry conference. “It was a classic entrepreneurial conundrum,” Mr. Hull said. “You reach a certain level of success and stop growing because you’re reluctant to change your ways.”

He urged the two owners of the investment company to start acting like a bigger company by holding regular, structured meetings instead of communicating with each other and their staff members by frequent workplace chats. He also suggested that they assume responsibilities that played to their strengths (one was a schmoozer and a visionary, the other an introvert and numbers cruncher), rather than working out every decision together.

“They agreed, he said. “They’re practicing it.”

In another case, the son of the founder of a manufacturing company in Manhattan feared that many of his employees, unhappy with his plan to move his factory to another borough, would desert him.

“I had him refocus on the truth,” Mr. Hull said. “He had asked each of them if they would come with him, and they all had said yes. He had lost sight of his homework.”

Most successful entrepreneurs will often recall their missteps, almost with pride, and tell of how they turned them into opportunities. Reinventing yourself is a mark of the entrepreneurial personality — and it is never too late.

Mr. Hull himself started his first business, a consulting firm, with a partner in 1995 when he was 35, after 15 years as a corporate human resources manager, including six years as the director of the department at Booz Allen Hamilton. Though the company was successful, the partners dissolved it in 2000 “to think about what we really wanted to do with our lives.” The other partner went to medical school, and Mr. Hull earned his doctorate in psychology in 2003, joining Cor Business that year. He opened his private counseling practice, Life-Shifting Inc., in Manhattan in 2004.

Asked whether he and his partners feel that cold stab of apprehension that he warns his clients about as revenue at Cor Business stagnates this year after six years of strong growth, Mr. Hull responded, “How could we not, in the midst of the worst economy in my lifetime?” Then he added: “How do I deal with it? By trying to practice what I preach. You have to stay optimistic.”

--

http://online.wsj.com

Is Now the Time to Buy Stocks?

Here is what the historical evidence suggests.

The markets are chaotic. The stock market (S&P 500) is down 34% for the year, and 17% in October alone. Volatility, which measures how much stocks move unexpectedly in a year, is even more dramatic. It's usually around 15%, but daily volatility in October was 75% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, the financial crisis continues. Is this the prelude to further losses, as in 1929? Or is it the mother of all buying opportunities? Even if we think the market is a bit undervalued, does huge volatility pose an unacceptable risk of catastrophic losses?

No one knows for sure -- but 30 years of research does offer some experience and insights. Consider the top line in the chart nearby, which depicts the dividend/price ratio for NYSE stocks. Dividends are stable over time, so this ratio lets us compare stock prices at different points in time. Read it as an upside-down price chart. When prices rise, as in the boom of the 1990s, you can see the dividend yield decline, and vice versa. The lower line is the following seven-year return; it tells you how much total return, if you invested $1 on a given date, you would have made in seven years.

The correlation is obvious: When prices are low relative to dividends, subsequent seven-year returns are likely to be high. Stocks do not follow a "random walk." More deeply, price declines above and beyond declines in dividends over the following year have entirely rebounded. This finding is confirmed by 30 years of research, ranging from "behaviorists" such as Robert Shiller and Richard Thaler to "efficient marketers" such as Eugene Fama and Ken French, to "economists" such as John Campbell and myself. The same pattern also appears in price/earnings, book/market and other ratios, and in many other markets.

The interpretation is pretty clear too. In a recession, or following losses, many investors become more averse to holding risks. They want to sell. But we can't all sell -- a fact routinely ignored in much financial advice and commentary. Instead, prices must fall and prospective returns rise until some investors are willing to buy. Unsurprisingly, upward spikes in the dividend yield came in bad economic times.

History is not a guarantee -- this time could be different. Rather than a higher return going forward, this price decline could reflect a consensus opinion that a massive depression is coming -- a 34% permanent decline in earnings and dividends and a massive wave of bankruptcies.

But as I read the news, the "risk aversion" story seems more plausible. We are in, or headed for, a recession. Anyone whose job or business will be impacted can't take stock-market risks, and should be selling despite low prices. We are seeing lots of "deleveraging," "disintermediation" and "forced selling." As losses mount, investors or institutions that have borrowed money must sell to avoid bankruptcy. Others, such as some university endowments or defined-benefit pension funds, have backstop commitments that must be honored, and they too must "capitulate" at some point. Still others may just be less willing to take risks after suffering a huge loss, a sensible "once burned, twice shy" mentality.

All of these actors become more averse to holding risks as the market declines, so they sell. This increasing risk aversion amplifies an initial price decline -- coming from bad earnings news or the huge rise in credit spreads -- into a rout.

If this is indeed what's going on, it also means that unleveraged, long-term investors should be buying, since prospective returns are better. They must be able to suffer through further mark-to-market losses, and not have recession-sensitive jobs or businesses. They must still have some money left to invest, so they can exchange some of their valuable Treasurys for assets that the suddenly risk-averse are trying to unload. The more these investors can understand and digest slightly exotic securities being dumped by leveraged intermediaries, the better. Warren Buffett is in the news, and he should be.

But this line of thought still does not justify wild optimism. The dividend yield and S&P 500 P/E are barely back to long-term averages, and dividends and earnings will surely fall next year, justifying some of the recent price decline. (Crazy yields in debt markets are another story.)

And what about volatility? Stocks could easily fall a lot more. The standard portfolio rule says that your stock percentage should rise with the expected return (stocks and bonds) divided by squared return volatility. So, if you were happy with a 50/50 portfolio with an expected return of 7% and 15% volatility (standard numbers), 50% volatility means you should hold only 4.5% of your portfolio in stocks!

Now, I might answer that, knowing this, everyone has tried to sell, pushing down prices and pushing up expected returns. But expected returns would need to rise from 7% per year to 78% per year to justify a 50/50 allocation with 50% volatility. Prices have not fallen anywhere near enough to make this a sensible forecast. Many sophisticated investors and hedge funds who use this standard formula are getting out, waiting for at least a return of lower volatility before getting back in.

The answer to this paradox is that the standard formula is wrong. It assumes that stocks are a random walk, and the chart tells us otherwise. Stocks act a lot like long-term bonds -- when prices decline and dividend yields rise, subsequent returns rise as well.

Good bond investors know this. If you have a 10-year Treasury indexed bond, and a 10-year liability (say, you want to retire in 10 years), and you desire complete safety, you can ignore quarterly statements. If you see interest rates rise, bond prices tank, and bond volatility go through the roof, you would be foolish to call your broker and cry, "We've got to sell! I can't take any more losses." If bond prices go down more, bond yields and long-run returns will rise just enough that you face no long-run risk. (Foolish or not, many bond investors pay far too much attention to short-term returns.) Stocks are much riskier, of course. But the same logic explains why you can ignore "short-run" volatility in stock markets.

The average person must end up holding the stocks and bonds that are out there. Therefore, you should only ever buy, sell or rebalance if you're different than the average person. We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half of us are deluded, so that's a dangerous way to invest.

If you're less leveraged, less affected by recessions, and have a longer horizon than the average, it makes sense to buy. If you're more leveraged, more affected by recession or have a shorter horizon, it might be the time to sell, even though you might be cashing out at the bottom. If you're about the same as everyone else, do nothing and relax. If you're wrong, at least you will have excellent company.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7726439.stm

Triple whammy hits US carmakers

Strategic mistakes have been made at GM's Detroit headquarters
The city of Detroit in the US state of Michigan is famous for two things - the car industry and Motown Records.
Yet the music label which launched the careers of Diana Ross, Marvin Gaye and Stevie Wonder left the motor city long ago.
Now the car industry is facing a thoroughly bleak future unless the Federal government comes to the rescue.
Of the "Big Three" American carmakers, General Motors is looking the most vulnerable.
Until recently the world's number one car manufacturer, it is moving ever closer to bankruptcy.
Last week it unveiled losses of $4.2bn in the third quarter, and admitted that without new investment it could run out of cash early next year.
Endemic problem
Its great rival Ford is also suffering.
It too is losing money rapidly - bleeding away close to a billion dollars every month. And Chrysler's future is shrouded in doubt, after the apparent collapse of merger talks with General Motors.
So why are the Detroit giants in trouble?
Part of the problem undoubtedly lies with the economic slowdown. When times are tough, people tend to rein in their spending, especially on "big ticket", expensive items like cars.
 

Large vehicles such as the Hummer have fallen out of favour

So perhaps it's no surprise that sales have been falling dramatically.
General Motors sold 45% fewer cars in October than they did during the same period last year, while Ford and Chrysler have both seen their sales fall by more than a third.
Traditionally, manufacturers respond by cutting prices, or offering cheap credit to their customers to shift unsold cars. But discounts erode profits, while the credit crunch means funding for car loans is ever harder to come by.
Costly care
But the Michigan malaise is about far more than a mere short-term economic downturn.
The big three have also been undone by a combination of factors: a hangover from their glory days, strategic mistakes and sheer bad luck.
First, the hangover.
All three manufacturers are paying a heavy price for past success. As well as paying the salaries of existing workers, they're also responsible for the pensions and healthcare costs of hundreds of thousands of former employees.
Last year, GM brokered a deal with the United Auto Workers union that will take about $50bn of these legacy costs off its books. But that won't take effect until 2010 - which may be too late.
This is a burden which the American firms' rivals, such as the Japanese carmakers Toyota, Nissan and Honda, don't have.
The burden makes the US manufacturers' cars more expensive and that is one reason why the big three have been losing market share to their Asian rivals.
Strategic mistakes
But the carmakers can also blame themselves for their troubles. Many analysts believe that over the past two decades, the big three have made serious strategic mistakes.

People are turning to greener and more fuel efficient vehicles

During the 1980s and1990s, Asian carmakers began to make serious inroads into the North American market.
They did so by offering products which were generally smaller, more efficient and more sophisticated than the gas-guzzlers traditionally favoured by American consumers.
Critics say the US manufacturers were slow to react and when they did, it was by producing more big, heavy cars, such as pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles.
Initially it was a very profitable approach. These machines were immensely popular in the late 1990s.
Green revolution
But a few years later, as sales of "green" cars such as the Toyota Prius took off, the strategy attracted a great deal of criticism - something acknowledged by GM's chairman Bob Lutz in a 2005 blog.
"It seems that ever since we announced we were bringing out our next generation of full-size trucks and utilities, people seem to think it's unwise", he wrote.
"I'll admit that on the surface it may seem incongruous to introduce vehicles like this, given today's fuel prices. But, I have to tell you, these products still make a lot of sense."
Yet in mid 2008, when fuel prices rocketed and Americans found themselves paying $4 a gallon for gasoline, GM's policy looked anything but sensible. The market for SUVs collapsed, as buyers turned in droves to more fuel-efficient options.
Of course bad luck has played a role as well.
The American carmakers were in the throes of restructuring when the downturn hit; a couple of years later the damage might not have been so great.
The carmakers could also point out that the oil price spike happened with astonishing speed, just when the credit crunch was starting to take its toll.
But it is arguable that much of the blame for the current crisis should be placed squarely on the shoulders of decision makers in Detroit.

11/13/2008 10:08 AM

http://finance.yahoo.com/

With the right mix of merchandise as well as marketing like its "save money, live better" campaign, Wal-Mart has been able to pull ahead of competitors like Target Corp. Wal-Mart shares have risen 21 percent in the past 52 weeks, while Target's have lost 40 percent of their value and J.C. Penney Co.'s have shed almost 60 percent in the same period.

Wal-Mart's shares fell 10 cents to $52.52 in morning trading Thursday.

The pronouncement signals Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott's strategy to emphasize lower prices is working, enabling Wal-Mart to win customers from Target Corp. and Macy's Inc. as shoppers curb spending. Investors have rewarded Wal-Mart with a 9.4 percent increase this year, the only one of 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News believe the U.S. economy will shrink at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and decline at a 1.5 percent pace in the first three months of 2009, resulting the longest slump since 1974-75.

--

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081113/D94E0KJG0.html

Study: Calif dirty air kills more than car crashes

To illustrate its point, the study noted that the California Highway Patrol recorded 2,521 vehicular deaths in the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast Air Basin in 2006, compared to 3,812 deaths attributed to respiratory illness caused by particulate pollution.

Studies have indicated a relationship between ozone and particulate pollution and asthma and other respiratory problems, including chronic bronchitis. They also have connected particulate pollution with an increase in cardiovascular problems.

--

http://www.nytimes.com/

WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department on Wednesday officially abandoned the original strategy behind its $700 billion effort to rescue the financial system, as administration officials acknowledged that banks and financial institutions were as unwilling as ever to lend to consumers.

--

http://ap.google.com

"As the global economy continues to weaken, we're going to see further downward pressure on oil," said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, in Singapore. "I think we'll certainly challenge the $50 threshold. We could challenge the $40 threshold."

http://www.nytimes.com/

White Houses Past

The Underside of the Welcome Mat

Published: November 8, 2008

WASHINGTON — Within days of his inauguration, as Barack Obama and his family begin to feel at home in the White House, Malia and Sasha will perhaps be scampering about the mansion’s staircases, bedrooms and formal public rooms.

As appealing as the prospect of that scene is, it is also a poignant reminder of how long it took for African-Americans to feel they had an equal place in that home.

In a pre-election conference call, Mr. Obama referred to the powerful symbolism of his daughters playing on the South Lawn of the White House, a building built with slave labor. And John McCain, in his concession speech Tuesday night, alluded to a private dinner that Theodore Roosevelt had with Booker T. Washington in 1901 that set off a poisonous controversy.

Responding to that dinner at the time, The Memphis Scimitar called it “the most damnable outrage which has ever been perpetrated by any citizen of the United States.” A former Democratic president, Grover Cleveland, wrote a letter to the House of Representatives, read on the floor in the election year of 1904, declaring that he had never done such a thing as invite a black man to dinner in that house.

John Stauffer, author of “Giants: The Parallel Lives of Frederick Douglass and Abraham Lincoln,” observed, “The racial history of the White House is a wonderful symbol of the racial history of the nation as a whole.”

The house itself was built by crews of black laborers — both slave and free. In 1801, a year after it opened, Thomas Jefferson brought nearly a dozen slaves from Monticello, and slaves would constitute much of the house’s staff until the death in 1850 of Zachary Taylor, the last slaveholder to be president.

Many lived in the servants’ quarters on the first floor, but some slept on the first family’s second floor — an intimacy that was a frequent source of tensions with non-slave servants.

The most prominent black caller to the White House in its first century was Frederick Douglass. He came three times while Lincoln was president, and his last visit was perhaps his most important. The White House had been thrown open to the public to celebrate the president’s second inaugural, but the guards turned Douglass away — apparently on standing orders that blacks were not to be allowed in. Douglass sent in his card, and Lincoln ordered him admitted.

The president asked Douglass how he had liked the speech, adding, “There is no man in the country whose opinion I value more than yours.”

“Mr. Lincoln,” Mr. Douglass answered, “that was a sacred effort.”

In those years, a black dresssmaker and former slave, Elizabeth Keckly, was Mary Todd Lincoln’s confidante. And in the next three decades, black singers, including the Fisk Jubilee Singers, Marie Selika Williams and Sissieretta Jones, entertained at the White House. But none of the singers were invited to stay for meals, a taboo that would last well into the next century.

Lou Hoover, the wife of Herbert Hoover, found that to be a problem in 1929, after Oscar De Priest became the first African-American elected to Congress since Reconstruction. She was admonished not to invite Mr. DePriest’s wife to her traditional tea for Congressional wives, so instead she arranged a separate tea party for Mrs. DePriest. But the event still drew a resolution of criticism from the Texas Legislature.

Eleanor Roosevelt, who was Theodore’s niece as well as Franklin’s wife, famously included African-Americans among her many guests at the White House, and she, too, was criticized — including when she invited Marian Anderson to follow her concert at the Lincoln Memorial in 1939 by singing at the White House before the king and queen of England.

The postwar wave of independence that swept the world changed Washington’s diplomatic scene. Black diplomats became regular guests at state dinners, and African heads of state were invited to sleep overnight. Still, most presidents reserved the White House guest rooms almost exclusively for family and close friends.

But African-Americans were gaining in political power — in Congress, in the cabinet, as aides — and starting in the 1970s became familiar figures in and near the Oval Office.

The first African-American guests invited to sleep in the White House are believed to have been Sammy Davis Jr. and his wife, Altovise, in 1973, by Richard Nixon. Mr. Davis was struck by the history. He later joked that he turned down the chance to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom in favor of the Queen’s room. “I thought to myself, now I don’t want [Lincoln] coming in here talking about, ‘I freed them, but I sure didn’t want them to sleep in my bed.’ ” (The singer Pearl Bailey, a friend of Betty Ford, also stayed overnight, after Nixon’s resignation.)

In the 1990’s, the Clintons, unique among modern first families, widened the circle of guests and political contributors who were invited to stay over, including a range of celebrities and politicians like Quincy Jones, Will Smith and his wife, Jada Pinkett Smith, and Willie Brown.

Still, there remains the enduring poignance of the not-so-distant past that was alluded to on election night — best expressed, perhaps, by an incident during Lyndon Johnson’s administration.

Bess Abell, who was Johnson’s White House social secretary, vividly remembers a state dinner at which Sarah Vaughan sang but, after dinner, disappeared.

“I found her in this office, which had been turned over to her as a dressing room, and she was sobbing,” Mrs. Abell said in an interview. “And I said, ‘Mrs. Vaughan, what’s wrong? What can I do?’ And she said, ‘There’s nothing wrong. This is the most wonderful day of my life. When I first came to Washington, I couldn’t get a hotel room, and tonight, I danced with the president.’ ”

Barclay Walsh contributed reporting.

--

http://howto.wired.com/

Google Smarter

From Wired How-To Wiki

Jump to: navigation, search

(or, Google More Smartly, if you're smart with grammar)

It's only a matter of time before you can upload the entire Internet to your brain. Until that glorious day, these tricks will save you some keystrokes.


Get good sources. Add "site:edu" or "site:gov" to limit your search to school or government domains. To target specific sites, type, say, "neutrino site:Harvard.edu."

Convert currency and units. Easy: "12 parsecs in light years" or "12 dollars in euros," for example.

Check your stocks. Take a deep breath, then enter a ticker symbol to see a real-time quote.

Narrow by file type. To find PowerPoints, Excel spreadsheets, or books scanned into PDFs, add "filetype:ppt" (or any other extension) to your query.

Search ranges. Use two periods between two numbers, like "Wii $200..$300."

Expect flight delays. Type in the airline, then your flight number.

Define yourself. To get the definition for a word, just type the word define: followed by the word. Include the colon and space.


The above was contributed by Damon Tabor for Wired magazine. However, this wiki is editable by anyone. If you want to add your own Google search tool tips, log in and add them below.

Find the Answer to the Secret of Life. Ask Google directly for the answer to the secret of life. The answer might surprise those of you who haven't read The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

Use the Correct Search Type. There are three types of Google search keywords: [exact], "phrase" and broad terms. Exact queries are surrounded by brackets and search for the query in the exact order in which they were entered. Phrase keywords are between quotation marks and look for the terms in any order but used together. Broad terms are the default search type and results are based on any use of the keywords on the page.

Understand a Google Search URL. You can write your own search URL without having to visit Google first. Take this example: 

http://www.google.com/search/q=search+query&hl=en&btnG=Search

Everything after the "/search/" portion is fair game for editing. Take a look:

  • /q=search -- this is the search query. All spaces are converted to plus signs (+) in order to not break the URI.
  • &hl=en -- This is the language. You can use any standard internet language code here. You can find a list of internet language codes online.
  • &btnG=Search -- This does nothing except tell Google you pressed the Google search button instead of pressing Return on your keyboard.
  • &dq=Display+Query -- This little known trick will change the query in the search box of the page to whatever you'd like. The search results will remain the same. For instance, take a look at the search box over the results for "incomparable genius."


Little known search operators. Did you know the asterisk (*) can be used if you don't know exactly how to spell a word. For instance, "contagiou*" will match all articles containing words that start in "contagiou." Give it a try, it's contagious. Other operators include the pipe code (|) which acts as the word "OR." For example, a search for "this|that" will return search results for "this" OR "that."

Don't Forget. Google can search for different media such as websites, images, videos, maps etc. Select the option above the input box. An easy way to refine your search is to select the "advanced search" option next to the input box.

Exact Phrases. By default, Google searches for any of the terms you enter. To find a specific phrase, use double quotes ("). You will get different results for wired google smarter than you will for wired "google smarter".

--

11/11/2008 11:13 AM

http://www.iht.com

MOUNTAIN HOUSE, California: This town, 59 feet above sea level, is the most underwater community in America.

Because of plunging home values, almost 90 percent of homeowners here owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, according to figures released Monday. That is the highest percentage in the country. The average homeowner in Mountain House is "underwater," as it is known, by $122,000.

A visit to the area over the last couple of days shows how the nationwide housing crisis is contributing to a broad slowdown of the American economy, as families who feel burdened by high mortgages are pulling back on their spending.

Jerry Martinez, a general contractor, and his wife, Marcie, an accounts clerk, are among the struggling owners in Mountain House. Burdened with credit card debt and a house losing value by the day, they are learning the necessity of self-denial for themselves and their three children.

No more family bowling night. No more dinners at Chili's or Applebee's. No more going to the movies.

"We make decent money, but it takes a tremendous amount to pay the mortgage," Martinez, 33, said.

First American CoreLogic, a real estate data company, has calculated that 7.6 million properties in the country were underwater as of Sept. 30, while another 2.1 million were in striking distance. That is nearly a quarter of all homes with mortgages. The 20 hardest-hit ZIP codes are all in four states: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

"Most people pay very little attention to what their equity stake is if they can make the mortgage," said First American's chief economist, Mark Fleming. "They think it's a bummer if the value has gone down, but they are rooted in their house."

And yet the magnitude of the current declines has little precedent. "When my house is valued at 50 percent less than it was, does this begin to challenge the way I'm going to behave?" he said.

Mountain House, a planned community set among the fields and pastures of the Central Valley about 60 miles east of San Francisco, provides a discomfiting answer.

The cutbacks by the Martinezes and their neighbors are reflected in a modest strip of about a dozen stores in nearby Tracy. Three are empty while a fourth has only a temporary tenant. Some of those that remain say they are just hanging on.

"Before summer, things were O.K. Not now," said My Phan of Hailey Nails and Spa. "Customers say they cannot afford to do their nails." She estimated her business had fallen by half.

At Cribs, Kids and Teens, Jason Heinemann says his business is also down 50 percent. He opened the store in early 2006; last month was his worst ever. "Grandparents are big buyers of kids' furniture, but when their 401(k)'s are dropping $10,000 and $20,000 a week, they don't come in," he said.

Heinemann laid off his one employee, a contribution to an unemployment rate in San Joaquin County that has surpassed 10 percent. He dropped his advertising in the local newspaper and luxury magazines.

As Heinemann's sales sink, he is tightening his own belt. "I used to be a big spender," he said. "We're setting a budget for Christmas."

In the window of another tenant, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, a placard shows two happy homeowners holding a sign saying, "Someday we'll owe a lot less than we thought."

Someday, maybe, but not now. First American has been refining its figures on underwater mortgages, formally known as negative equity. The data company evaluated 42 million residential properties with mortgages. (Though Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming were excluded because of insufficient data, none of those states have been central to the mortgage crisis.) A computer model was used to calculate current values, using comparable sales. More than 10 million homes do not have mortgages.

The figures rank the 20 ZIP codes that are furthest underwater. The 95391 ZIP code, which includes all of Mountain House and some properties outside it, has the unwelcome distinction of being first in the country.

Out of 1,856 mortgages in the ZIP code, First American calculates that nearly 90 percent are underwater. Only 209 owners owe less on their mortgages than the homes are worth.

The first homes in Mountain House were sold in 2003, just as the real estate boom began to go into overdrive. Its relative proximity to San Francisco drew many who traded a longer commuting trip for a bigger place.

The Martinezes bought their house in early 2005 for $630,000. It is now worth about $420,000. They have an interest-only mortgage, a popular loan during the boom that allows owners to forgo principal payments for a time.

But these loans eventually become unmanageable. In 2015, Martinez said, his monthly payments will be $12,000 a month. He laughed and shook his head at the absurdity of it.

They fear the future, so they stay home. They rent movies. They play board games. (But not Monopoly — with its real estate theme, it reminds them too much of real life.)

"It's a vicious circle," Martinez said. The economy is faltering because he and millions of others are not spending. This killed his career in home remodeling this year, and threatens his current work as a contractor on commercial properties.

For the moment, the family is just trying to hold on. But Martinez acknowledges that it has entered his mind to turn his house back over to the bank. "By next June, if things aren't better, I'm walking," Martinez said.

Many in Mountain House have already taken that option. Banks took over 101 properties in the 95391 ZIP code in the third quarter, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Even relatively recent arrivals are feeling a pinch.

Kenny Rogers, a data security specialist, moved into Mountain House last year, buying a foreclosed property on Prosperity Street for $380,000. But the decline in values has been so fierce that he too is underwater.

He has cut his DVD buying from 50 a month to perhaps one, and is waiting until the Christmas sales to buy a high-definition television. He does not indulge much anymore in his hobbies of scuba diving and flying. "Best to wait for a better price, or do without," Rogers, 52, said.

People deciding to do without are hurting a second mall close to Mountain House. There is a shuttered Linens 'n Things, part of a chain that went bankrupt. Another empty storefront used to be a Fashion Bug. Soccer World could not make it. Shoe Pavilion is festooned with going-out-of-business signs.

Chris and Janet Ackerson can survey this carnage from their own store with a certain equanimity. Their business, a member of the Vino 100 chain of wine outlets, is doing well.

The store opened at the beginning of the year, so long-term trends are not clear. But sales did not plunge in the last few months as they did for so many other retailers. Four more people joined the store's wine club last weekend.

"My house is underwater, so I'm not doing too much impulse shopping or any renovation. But I'm not cutting back on this," said Ray Lopez, a database administrator, as he placed a $24 petite sirah on the counter. "Life's too short."

--

11/12/2008 12:17 PM

http://www.cnbc.com

US May Lose Its 'AAA' Rating

The United States may be on course to lose its 'AAA' rating due to the large amount of debt it has accumulated, according to Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche.

"The U.S. might really have to look at a default on the bankruptcy reorganization of the present financial system" and the bankruptcy of the government is not out of the realm of possibility, Hennecke said.

"In the United States there is already a funding crisis, and they will have to sell a lot more bonds next year to fund the bailout packages that have already been signed off," Hennecke told CNBC.

In order to solve or stem the economic slowdown, Hennecke suggested the US would have to radically reduce spending across all sectors and recall all its troops from around the world.

As for a stimulus package, there is not much of an industry left to stimulate back into life, Hennecke said.

--

http://www.salon.com/

News items: My article "Final Cut: The Selection Process for 'Break, Blow, Burn'" has just been published in the Fall 2008 issue of Arion at Boston University. It is available online at Arion or via that invaluable international site, Arts & Letters Daily. No more Mr. Nice Guy: I've taken the gloves off against John Ashbery, Jorie Graham and the rest of that insufferably pretentious crowd. For real English used in a vital, vigorous contemporary way, see the new book of poems by my colleague Jack DeWitt, "Almost Grown," which deals with cars, gals and brawls -- American culture at its finest!

--

http://education.zdnet.com/

So why is this important here in Ed Tech? Because when we talk about 21st Century Skills, one of the most important things we’re talking about is communication. How can we all stay connected and collaborate in ways that we couldn’t before with mere 20th Century skills? Again, I can’t emphasize the importance of verbal communication skills enough. The digital revolution hasn’t gotten rid of voice; it’s simply allowing us to integrate it into a variety of media: podcasts, microblogging, video conferencing, and even face to face.

11/9/2008 6:40 AM

http://books.google.com/

Members SiteToastmasters.Home 2007 March ...

...

Profile: The Ability to Advocate ... more »Cab driver uses his Toastmasters

training to implement life-saving law.

By Julie Bawden Davis

When former cab driver Arthur McClenaghan began reading self-help, motivational books several years ago, friends and co-workers snickered and told him not to bother. They doubted the effectiveness of inspirational publications and had a hard time visualizing McClenaghan as anything more than an overweight taxi driver.

“I truly was an American slob,” says McClenaghan of his former self. “I was so lazy that I needed a remote control to fetch my remote control. I was overweight, had no plans for the future and very little money. I knew, however, that I wanted something better out of life, so I began reading books by authors such as Brian Tracy, including his book about overcoming procrastination, Eat That Frog.”

The encouragement and advice McClenaghan found in such volumes drastically changed his life. He began exercising and eating well, eventually losing 70 pounds.

“The suggestions in the books taught me to ignore demotivators and concentrate on motivators,” says McClenaghan, who found references to Toastmasters in many of the books.

“Authors like Tracy highly recommended Toastmasters for building confidence and speaking skills,” he says. “At the time I was interested in increasing confidence, but I didn’t think I’d needed speaking skills; after all, I was just a cab driver.”

But he would soon become much more than a cab driver – thanks, in part, to Toastmasters.

“For over 12 years I drove taxi-cabs in downtown Las Vegas,” he says. “While driving cabs is an interesting job, it can also be dangerous. I personally knew a driver who had his throat slit and another who was hit on the head with a blunt object and died.”

Feeling sorry for family members of cab drivers who were hurt or killed in the line of duty, McClenaghan came up with the idea of putting security cameras in taxis and began pushing for legislation that would mandate their use.

“Many drivers said I was wasting my time because there were only nine owners monopolizing the whole cab industry in Las Vegas, and many people thought that they would never allow the cameras,” he says. Bolstered by the motivational books he’d read, however, McClenaghan decided to forge ahead anyway.

“I originally petitioned other drivers, and everyone – including my boss at the time – told me that it would be impossible to get the cameras installed,” he says. He continued to spread the word, however, soon getting local media attention for his cause.

When it became apparent that McClenaghan would need to speak on camera and in front of the Nevada Taxicab Board, which is a state legislative committee appointed by the governor, he became nervous.

“At first I thought, this is scary! I’m just a cabbie; what the heck was I thinking? But then I remembered reading about Toastmasters and found a club and visited right way. At my first meetings, I was very nervous. When I stood up to speak, I was so shaky, I’d hold onto the podium and had a hard time letting go. Everyone was so friendly and professional, though, that I stayed and stuck it out.”

The Toast of Sierra Toastmasters club helped McClenaghan almost immediately with speaking skills and his confidence grew every day. Just six months after joining, he had to make an important speech regarding the campaign, and he was ready.

Fellow club member Bob Dobson notes how quickly McClenaghan advanced in Toastmasters: “In an amazingly short period of time, Arthur went from being so nervous he could barely stand up, to completely self assured in front of news cameras,” says Dobson, who has been a Toast of Sierra Toastmasters member since 1990. “Considering his admirable and brave cause, club members were more than willing to help him improve, and as a result he became an excellent Toastmaster.”

-- 

http://www.guardian.co.uk

Mini nuclear plants to power 20,000 homes

Ł13m shed-size reactors will be delivered by lorry

Nuclear power plants smaller than a garden shed and able to power 20,000 homes will be on sale within five years, say scientists at Los Alamos, the US government laboratory which developed the first atomic bomb.

The miniature reactors will be factory-sealed, contain no weapons-grade material, have no moving parts and will be nearly impossible to steal because they will be encased in concrete and buried underground.

The US government has licensed the technology to Hyperion, a New Mexico-based company which said last week that it has taken its first firm orders and plans to start mass production within five years. 'Our goal is to generate electricity for 10 cents a watt anywhere in the world,' said John Deal, chief executive of Hyperion. 'They will cost approximately $25m [Ł13m] each. For a community with 10,000 households, that is a very affordable $250 per home.'

Deal claims to have more than 100 firm orders, largely from the oil and electricity industries, but says the company is also targeting developing countries and isolated communities. 'It's leapfrog technology,' he said.

The company plans to set up three factories to produce 4,000 plants between 2013 and 2023. 'We already have a pipeline for 100 reactors, and we are taking our time to tool up to mass-produce this reactor.'

The first confirmed order came from TES, a Czech infrastructure company specialising in water plants and power plants. 'They ordered six units and optioned a further 12. We are very sure of their capability to purchase,' said Deal. The first one, he said, would be installed in Romania. 'We now have a six-year waiting list. We are in talks with developers in the Cayman Islands, Panama and the Bahamas.'

The reactors, only a few metres in diameter, will be delivered on the back of a lorry to be buried underground. They must be refuelled every 7 to 10 years. Because the reactor is based on a 50-year-old design that has proved safe for students to use, few countries are expected to object to plants on their territory. An application to build the plants will be submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission next year.

'You could never have a Chernobyl-type event - there are no moving parts,' said Deal. 'You would need nation-state resources in order to enrich our uranium. Temperature-wise it's too hot to handle. It would be like stealing a barbecue with your bare hands.'

Other companies are known to be designing micro-reactors. Toshiba has been testing 200KW reactors measuring roughly six metres by two metres. Designed to fuel smaller numbers of homes for longer, they could power a single building for up to 40 years.

--

http://www.philly.com/

"That one picture of Obama and his wife, African Americans, holding hands with [Joseph R.] Biden [Jr.] and his wife was worth more than all of the hundreds of millions this administration has spent on public diplomacy," said panelist Paulo Sotero, former Washington correspondent for the Brazilian daily O Estado de S. Paulo.

The victory of an African American and the level of citizen involvement in the U.S. election have refurbished the nation's democratic image. It undercuts the efforts of jihadis to bill the United States as the Great Satan.

"Anti-Americanism will not suddenly, magically disappear," French philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy wrote in the Financial Times, a British paper. "But it will have a harder time surviving and it will be forced to revisit its sales pitch."

--

http://www.miamiherald.com

Palin returned to her office Friday amid a brutal crossfire between detractors and defenders in the McCain camp. At the same time, however, a new national poll said 64 percent of Republicans consider her their top choice to run for president in 2012.

--

http://www.mercurynews.com

Black men hope Obama presidency shatters racial stereotypes

Bryan Ford sees a lot of himself in Barack Obama. Like the president-elect, the San Jose State sophomore was raised by a single mother. And, like Obama's long fight to the White House, Ford says being a young black man in America has often meant defying others' low expectations.

"I've been searched by the cops just for being black, for standing on the street with my friends," said the 19-year-old student, who also recalls being tailed by security guards in shopping malls. "It happened all the time."

Black men endure painful stereotypes in American popular culture, which often depicts them "singing, rapping, scoring a touchdown, dunking a basketball, hitting a home run or committing a crime," according to the group YAAMS, Young African Americans Against Media Stereotypes.

But now, and for at least the next four years, the most quoted, photographed and broadcast face and voice will be that of a Harvard University-educated black man. It is the face Americans will turn to during national crises for information and reassurance. At the annual State of the Union address, it is a black man who will outline the goals and successes of the most powerful country on earth.

The historic significance of America electing its first black president is profound. But beyond the poignant symbolism, many African-Americans hope Obama's election may begin to shatter deeply entrenched stereotypes.

"The most famous black man in America isn't dribbling a ball or clutching a microphone," writer Ta-Nehisi Coates noted in a recent essay for Time magazine. "He has no prison record. He has not built a career on four-letter words."

The significance isn't lost on 14-year-old Jordan Brown, who attends Santa Clara's Wilcox High School.

"Obama being elected shows that black people can be smart and have some class," Jordan said. "People expect black people to be athletes. Like we can run fast and play basketball, but we're not smart. Now they see that black people can be smart, and people voted for Obama because he is smart."

Many scholars note that the Obama family — his wife Michelle and daughters Malia and Sasha — is even more powerful than the image of Obama alone.

'Whole package'

"With Obama we get the whole package. He is a dedicated husband and father, and his love for Michelle and their children is front and center," said Patricia Turner, a vice provost and professor of African-American studies at the University of California-Davis who wrote "Ceramic Uncles and Celluloid Mammies: Black Images and Their Influences on Culture."

"Nuclear black families are almost never depicted in popular culture. I hope that now, because of the Obamas, we'll begin to see more black couples and families depicted in film and television," she said.

Turner notes that racial stereotypes often persist for generations, and take years of active advocacy work to overcome. "Stereotypes are extraordinarily tenacious,'' she said. "Once they are out there, it's a virus that lingers."

Some stereotypes are reinforced by real-life challenges. In California, nearly 42 percent of black students drop out of high school. A 2008 study by the Pew Center for the States also found that one in nine black men between the ages of 20 and 34 is behind bars.

Matthew Morgan, a senior at San Jose State University, said Obama's victory gives him a new sense of personal responsibility.

'No more excuses'

"For perceptions of black men to change, it's going to depend on how we carry ourselves,'' he said after an African-American history course this week. "I'm proud to say that I feel like I have a lot of responsibility on me, on us as a people. Obama needs support, and we all have to step up to the plate and get involved in our communities. There are no more excuses.''

Frank Gilliam, dean of the University of California-Los Angeles School of Public Affairs and a leading scholar of racial politics and mass media, said the idea of a "sea change in race relations is probably naive.'' But the fact that a black man is now the boss — of the United States — will have a huge impact on not just African-Americans but whites and other ethnic groups as well. An entire generation will come of age with a black man in charge.

"It's not going to be any easier for me to get a cab in Manhattan," Gilliam said. "But we're all going to experience a black man in the ultimate authority position, and a black family is on the way to the White House. Racial stereotypes will stay with us, but we're chipping away at it."

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/34147009.html

Oregon town elects nation's first transgender mayor

SILVERTON, Ore. (AP) - Plenty of politicians reinvent themselves. But none quite like Mayor-elect Stu Rasmussen.

Rasmussen, 60, has been a fixture in Silverton politics for more than 20 years, and had twice before been the mayor of this small city 45 miles south of Portland. Those terms, however, were before the breast implants and before the once-discreet crossdresser started wearing dresses and 3-inch high heels in public.

In a week when America loudly chose its first African-American president, Silverton quietly made Rasmussen the country's first openly transgender mayor, according to the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, a group that works to help openly lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender people win elected office.

Rasmussen unseated incumbent mayor Ken Hector, with whom he had long clashed — 1,988 votes to 1,512. Because Rasmussen's appearance is no secret, it was policy issues that dominated the campaign.

"I've blackmail-proofed myself," said Rasmussen.

The story of Rasmussen's election was first reported by JustOut, a bimonthly publication for Portland's gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender communities.

"Stu never sought this recognition out," said Stephen Marc Beaudoin, the reporter who broke the story. "He's interested in doing a great job for the community that he loves. The gender identity thing is just a total backseat thing."

That comes across when Rasmussen speaks in his decidedly masculine voice. Though he dresses more like Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Rasmussen describes himself with a word assigned to Todd Palin.

"I am a dude," he said. "I am a heterosexual male who appears to be a female."

His longtime live-in girlfriend, Victoria Sage, told The Oregonian newspaper that she and Rasmussen have been an item for almost 35 years.

"I heard a quote, and I don't know who said it but I think it's fabulous, that Silverton is a place where Mennonites and transvestites can get along," she said.

The quote rang true when two cowboys came across the new mayor on a downtown sidewalk. "Good job, Stu," one of them said to the man wearing a leather skirt and maroon stockings.

"Congratulations, Mr. Mayor," called the other.

http://online.wsj.com/

As Giant Rivals Stall, Porsche Engineers a Financial Windfall

FRANKFURT -- Porsche is proving you can still make lots of money in the car business, especially if you know how to wield derivatives.

The German sports-car maker said Friday that its pretax profit in the fiscal year ended July 31 soared 46% to €8.57 billion euros, or about $10.9 billion. Eighty percent of that came not from making cars but from sophisticated financial instruments connected to a protracted takeover bid Porsche Automobil Holding SE has been pursuing for a company many times its size, Volkswagen AG.

Porsche's profits on those trades totaled more than the current combined market values of beaten-down General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. The outsize gains were scored by a potato-loving chief executive and his Kafka-reading chief financial officer. They teamed up with the offspring of the Beetle creator to engineer an audacious takeover bid -- and outfox hedge funds at their own game.

Porsche is raking in money through a form of options that helped it build up a huge stake in VW since 2005, while keeping other market participants in the dark. The strategy led late last month to a soaring price for VW shares after a Porsche disclosure showed the company, had, in effect, cornered the market on most VW shares.

That put investors who had bet against VW stock in the classic bind called a short squeeze. This one was acute: VW's stock spiked so high that VW briefly was the most valuable public corporation in the world.

Hedge funds that had shorted VW shares -- borrowing them and selling them, hoping to replace them later with cheaper shares -- lost billions over a few frantic hours last week as they wrestled each other to buy the few remaining shares available and unwind their bets. Funds affected, according to people familiar with them, include Greenlight Capital, SAC Capital, Glenview Capital, Marshall Wace, Tiger Asia, Perry Capital and Highside Capital.

Porsche's earnings report provided the latest evidence that the old-economy manufacturer has been taking a page from hedge funds' playbooks, and seemingly beating them at their own game. Thanks to its trading gains, Porsche's net profit for the year rose 51%, to €6.39 billion, at a time when many auto makers are churning out profit warnings, or worse. And those results don't reflect a potentially massive windfall from its trading activity last month.

The final chapter of the drama hasn't been written. German regulators have launched an investigation into whether there was manipulation of VW shares, after some investors accused Porsche of misleading markets. Porsche says that it hasn't done anything wrong and that the fault for the VW share gyrations lies with short sellers. Porsche, meanwhile, faces other obstacles as it tries to clinch control of VW, a company that boasts 15 times as much revenue and builds 60 times as many cars.

Porsche's moves point to the resilience of Deutschland AG, the decades-old network of elaborate cross-holdings that kept companies in domestic hands but had been unraveling. Porsche's VW chase is a kind of corporate German reunification drama: Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piëch, the board chairmen of Porsche and VW, respectively, are grandsons of Ferdinand Porsche, who created the VW Beetle and founded Porsche before World War II.

The affair traces back to 2005, a time of concern in Germany that VW could be a takeover target of non-German investors and broken up. Private-equity firms, many from the U.S. or U.K., had snapped up more than 5,000 German companies since the late 1990s. Adding to the nervousness, the European Union was trying to strike down a decades-old "VW Law" that capped any single shareholder's voting rights at 20%.

'Swarms of Locusts'

In April 2005, Franz Müntefering, the chairman of the then-ruling Social Democratic Party, called non-German financial investors "swarms of locusts" that land on companies and "strip them bare." Wendelin Wiedeking, Porsche's combative CEO, chimed in, telling a newspaper that Germany needed to stick to a "social market" economy that avoided putting shareholders' interests before those of customers, employees, and suppliers.

Mr. Wiedeking had helped steer Porsche out of trouble after taking the wheel in 2003 and pushed profit margins to industry highs. He slashed about a fifth of the work force and imported Japanese-style lean-inventory methods. Once, to drive home the point, he strode across a factory floor and smashed shelves bulging with spare parts.

Mr. Wiedeking cultivates a populist persona, even as Porsche sells pricey cars such as the 911. The 56-year-old executive owns a working-class tavern and a small farm, where he harvests potatoes with the help of an old Porsche tractor, distributing sacks of potatoes to employees.

In September 2005 Porsche surprised investors by announcing it would buy a 20% stake in VW, becoming its biggest shareholder in a "German solution" that would avoid any foreign takeover. VW and its home state of Lower Saxony, which held a bit under 20%, welcomed the move by Porsche -- which, significantly, didn't signal that it was interested in a majority stake.

Behind the scenes, Porsche Chief Financial Officer Holger Härter was crunching numbers. An economist, Mr. Härter had joined the company in the 1990s after Mr. Wiedeking recruited him from a floor-products firm in a town where they both lived.

Mr. Härter is known as a fan of Franz Kafka and Ludwig II, the 19th-century Bavarian king whose fanciful castles inspired Walt Disney. He also is the chairman of Stuttgart's derivatives exchange, and in the 1990s he developed sophisticated models to hedge Porsche's foreign-exchange exposure. Now he is being credited with drafting the financial road map that put Porsche, which makes 100,000 cars a year, in position to take over VW, which makes six million.

'Cash-Settled Options'

The vehicle: "cash-settled options." The buyer of regular stock options gets the right to buy or sell stock at a certain price by a certain date. But in cash-settled options, as the name implies, the buyer gets the right not to stock but the cash difference between the options' "strike price" and the market price of the shares when the options are exercised.

Porsche began buying cash-settled options tied to VW stock in 2005, when VW's share price was below €100. If the price rose, Porsche could exercise the options and receive the difference between the lower strike price and the higher market price. It could then use the money to buy VW shares.

In Germany, an investor needn't disclose ownership of any size holding of options if they are the type settled in cash instead of shares. That allowed Porsche to build a large stake in VW while keeping the rest of the market unaware of its activity.

Such options have one other important twist: Banks that underwrite them typically hedge their exposure by holding actual shares. That takes these shares out of circulation.

By March 2007, Porsche had boosted its stake in VW to 30%. That triggered a German rule requiring it to make a full tender offer for VW shares. The company said it wasn't interested in a takeover of VW. Forced to make a tender offer, Porsche offered the legal minimum price the law let it offer, which was €100.92 for each voting share. Only 0.6% of the remaining VW shares were tendered.

That November, Porsche announced that for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2007, it had booked a pretax profit of €5.86 billion, including €3.59 billion from "the very positive effects" of VW options. Compensation for Porsche's six-person management board more than doubled, to €112.7 million. Mr. Wiedeking pocketed more than half of that.

Green Light

This past March, Porsche's supervisory board gave the green light to take the VW stake above 50%, and this goal was announced. For the six months ended Jan. 31, Porsche disclosed a pretax profit that included €850 million from "hedging transactions in connection with the acquisition of the VW stake." But Porsche denied growing talk that it was gunning for 75% of VW. In a news release, the company said the possibility of that was "very small indeed" and dismissed it as "speculative mind games of analysts and investors."

In mid-September, Porsche disclosed it had raised its VW stake to just above 35%. At the Paris Auto Show in early October, Mr. Wiedeking told reporters a 75% stake was a "purely theoretical option." On Oct. 24, a Friday, VW's share price closed at €210.85 on Frankfurt's stock exchange.

That Sunday, Porsche dropped a bombshell: In a news release, the company disclosed that it owned 42.6% of VW's shares as well as cash-settled options linked to an additional 31.5% of the shares. Porsche also said that it planned to acquire a 75% stake in VW.

Trouble for the 'Shorts'

When financial markets opened Monday Oct. 27, all hell broke loose. Funds that had borrowed VW shares and sold them, expecting no takeover offer and betting the stock would decline, raced to purchase shares to unwind the bets.

There weren't enough to go around. Part of the reason is that underwriters of cash-settled options typically hedge their risk by owning the shares of the company involved. The shares they owned, combined with those Porsche had acquired, added up to 74.1%, and Lower Saxony state owned 20.1%

The result was that while some 12.8% of VW shares were on loan, mostly to short sellers, those that for practical purposes were in circulation amounted to only 6% of VW shares.

As hedge funds fought for the remaining VW shares, they drove the stock's price ever higher -- deepening their losses. At the height of the short squeeze on Oct. 28, VW stock briefly topped €1,000, nearly five times as high as on Oct. 24, making VW the biggest company by stock-market value for a few hours.

VW's share price, more recently, has been returning to earth. It ended at €398.21 in Frankfurt Friday, less than half its record high but still nearly twice as high as on Oct. 24.

Analyst's Speculation

Theories abound about how much money Porsche has made in the process -- and whether its strategy might have gone beyond exercising options when the share price rose. Max Warburton, a senior analyst in London at Bernstein Research, has speculated on a multipart strategy Porsche may have executed, given the company's huge derivatives profits and the way VW's share price has continued to rise in recent months, in contrast to the rest of the auto sector.

Mr. Warburton speculated that Porsche may have lent VW shares it owned to short sellers who were borrowing in order to sell; that when they sold, Porsche may have been the buyer; that when the "shorts" desperately needed to buy shares to close their bets, Porsche may have been a seller at the elevated price; and finally, confident the price wouldn't fall, Porsche may have profited by safely selling put options that convey the right to sell at a set price.

A Porsche spokesman said such theories were "not true" because they suggested Porsche broke laws or manipulated markets, and that it didn't. Porsche addressed some specifics of Mr. Warburton's speculation, but not others; it said that the company didn't lend shares -- that, in fact, it considers doing so to constitute market manipulation.

Porsche's CEO, Mr. Wiedeking, has been quiet of late, but a remark that he made in January suggests he isn't likely to get sentimental about hedge-fund losses. "This world is not a playground where children at play are pampered by friendly nannies," he told the company's annual shareholder meeting.

Earlier this summer, German auto-parts supplier Schaeffler Group did something similar, secretly cornering about a third of the shares of larger rival Continental AG. Some investors complain that Porsche and Schaeffler have crossed the line of fair play, taking advantage of disclosure rules that are too loose and regulators that are too tentative.

"We need a different approach, with efficient supervision,'' says Christian Strenger, a board member at DWS, the asset management arm of Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest financial group.

Bafin's Stance

But Bafin, Germany's securities regulator, the body investigating Porsche's actions, already has given Schaeffler's conduct a clean bill of health. The German finance ministry says it is considering proposing legislation that would force disclosure in the future of cash-settled options. Any such law could take several months to go into effect.

Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück last month reiterated long-standing calls by the German government for increased international regulation of hedge funds. He also has suggested that "detrimental" short-selling be banned. He has shied away from commenting on the VW case.

Some 80% of Germans disapproved of hedge funds in 2005, and that hasn't changed, according to Manfred Güllner, head of Forsa, a polling firm. He also reckons that many Germans like the idea of VW and Porsche, which worked closely together in the 1930s but went their separate ways after WW II, joining forces. "It's history coming together again," he says. "It fits together."

--

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The economy will shrink at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 2 percent pace in the first quarter of 2009, nearly twice prior estimates, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote yesterday in a note. That would be the biggest back-to-back contraction since 1982.

Goldman’s call reflects mounting concern that growing numbers of companies and consumers will lose access to credit as the worst financial crisis in seven decades prompts banks to rein in lending.

--

http://www.timesoftheinternet.com

Analyst: China headed for major slowdown


BEIJING, Nov. 8 (UPI) --

China could be headed for a major economic downturn, an analyst's report indicates.

Eric Fishwick, chief economist at CLSA, an Asia specialist private equity firm, said China's growth in 2009 could dip to 5.5 percent, The Times of London reported Saturday.

The newspaper reported that already China's electricity sector is lagging, with monthly national power output in October falling for the first time in a decade. More than 70 percent of the electricity generated in China is consumed by industry.

Investors need to analyze China as 'just another capitalist country' and question whether government policy will actually work, Fishwick said. China is revealed as extremely cyclical with the volatile expenditure components much larger compared with the stable ones. Our 5.5 percent GDP forecast has already factored in a broad and aggressive government stimulus.

In a separate report, Goldman Sachs said Friday the Chinese economy will likely stabilize in the second half of 2009.

Deng Tishun, Goldman's China strategist, said Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong could rise more than 50 percent next year.
Copyright 2008 by United Press International
All Rights Reserved.

--

11/8/2008 3:50 PM

http://www.foxnews.com

CLEVELAND —  A contractor who found $182,000 in Depression-era currency hidden in a bathroom wall has ended up with only a few thousand dollars, but he feels some vindication.

The windfall discovery amounted to little more than grief for contractor Bob Kitts, who couldn't agree on how to split the money with homeowner Amanda Reece.

It didn't help Reece much, either. She testified in a deposition that she was considering bankruptcy and that a bank recently foreclosed on one of her properties.

And 21 descendants of Patrick Dunne _ the wealthy businessman who stashed the money that was minted in a time of bank collapses and joblessness _ will each get a mere fraction of the find.

"If these two individuals had sat down and resolved their disputes and divided the money, the heirs would have had no knowledge of it," said attorney Gid Marcinkevicius, who represents the Dunne estate. "Because they were not able to sit down and divide it in a rational way, they both lost."

Kitts was tearing the bathroom walls out of an 83-year-old home near Lake Erie in 2006 when he discovered two green metal lockboxes suspended inside a wall below the medicine chest, hanging from a wire. Inside were white envelopes with the return address for "P. Dunne News Agency."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Monsoon link to fall of dynasties

The demise of some of China's ruling dynasties may have been linked to changes in the strength of monsoon rains, a new study suggests.

The findings come from 1,800-year record of the Asian monsoon preserved in a stalagmite from a Chinese cave.

Weak - and therefore dry - monsoon periods coincided with the demise of the Tang, Yuan and Ming imperial dynasties, the scientists said.

A US-Chinese team report their work in the journal Science.

Stalagmites are largely made up of calcium carbonate, which precipitates from groundwater dripping from the ceiling of a cave.

Chemical analysis of a 118mm-long stalagmite from Wangxiang Cave, in Gansu province, north-west China, told the history of strong and weak cycles in the monsoon - the rains that water crops to feed millions of people in Asia.

It also shows that, over the last 50 years, greenhouse gases and aerosols have taken over from natural variability to become the dominant influence on the monsoon.

Death of dynasties

Small variations in the forms, or isotopes, of the stalagmite's oxygen composition reflected variations in rainfall near the cave.

Proportions of the radioactive elements uranium and thorium in the deposit allowed the researchers to date the stalagmite layers to within an average of two-and-a-half years.

By comparing the rain record with Chinese historical records, Pingzhong Zhang of Lanzhou University in China, and colleagues, found three out of five "multi-century" dynasties - the Tang, the Yuan and the Ming - ended after several decades of weaker summer monsoons with drier conditions.

"Summer monsoon winds originate in the Indian Ocean and sweep into China," said Hai Cheng, co-author from the University of Minnesota, US.

"When the summer monsoon is stronger, it pushes farther north-west into China."

These moisture-laden winds bring rain necessary for cultivating rice. But when the monsoon is weak, the rains stall farther south and east, depriving northern and western parts of China of summer rains.

This could have led to poor rice harvests and civil unrest, the researchers speculate.

"Whereas other factors would certainly have affected these chapters of Chinese cultural history, our correlations suggest that climate played a key role," the researchers write in Science.

But a weak monsoon could also be linked to changes further afield. The researchers say a dry period between 850AD and 940AD coincides not only with the decline of the Chinese Tang dynasty but also with the fall of the Mayan civilization in America.

Human influence

Subsequent strengthening of the monsoon may have contributed to the rapid increase in rice cultivation, a dramatic increase in population and general stability at the beginning of China's Northern Song Dynasty.

The monsoon record also matched up nicely with the advance and retreat of Swiss glaciers.

Scientists say the natural archive shows that climate change can have devastating effects on local populations - even when this change is mild when averaged across the globe.

In the cave record, the monsoon followed trends in solar activity over many centuries, suggesting the Sun played an important role in the variability of this weather system.

To a lesser extent, it also followed northern hemisphere temperatures on a millennial and centennial scale. As temperatures went up, the monsoon became stronger and, as they dropped, it weakened.

However, over the last 50 years, this relationship has switched. The researchers attribute this to the influence of greenhouse gas emissions and sulphate aerosols released by human activities.

--

11/8/2008 9:34 AM

http://www.informativepost.com/

The "Bush Connection"

Like it or not, John McCain just could not get away from being associated with President George W. Bush, now blamed for the majority of ills of our nation.  Despite his efforts to distance himself from the unpopular George W.,  the fact that McCain supported 90% of his policies made people reluctant to vote for 4 more years of the same kind of administration.

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7714950.stm

Green spaces 'reduce health gap'

A bit of greenery near our homes can cut the "health gap" between rich and poor, say researchers from two Scottish universities.

Even small parks in the heart of our cities can protect us from strokes and heart disease, perhaps by cutting stress or boosting exercise.

Their study, in The Lancet, matched data about hundreds of thousands of deaths to green spaces in local areas.

Councils should introduce more greenery to improve wellbeing, they said.

This study offers valuable evidence that green space does more than 'pretty up' the neighbourhood
 

Dr Terry Hartig
Uppsala University, Sweden

Across the country, there are "health inequalities" related to income and social deprivation, which generally reflect differences in lifestyle, diet, and, to some extent, access to medical care.

This means that in general, people living in poorer areas are more likely to be unhealthy, and die earlier.

However, the researchers found that living near parks, woodland or other open spaces helped reduce these inequalities, regardless of social class.

When the records of more than 366,000 people who died between 2001 and 2005 were analysed, it revealed that even tiny green spaces in the areas in which they lived made a big difference to their risk of fatal diseases.

Although the effect was greatest for those living surrounded by the most greenery, with the "health gap" roughly halved compared with those with the fewest green spaces around them, there was still a noticeable difference.

Stress buster

The change was particularly clear in areas such as heart disease and stroke, supporting the idea that the presence of green spaces encourages people to be more active.

However, the researchers, Dr Richard Mitchell from Glasgow University, and Dr Frank Popham, from the University of St Andrews, said that other studies had suggested that contact with green spaces also helped reduce blood pressure and stress levels, perhaps even promoting faster healing after surgery.

They wrote: "The implications of this study are clear - environments that promote good health might be crucial in the fight to reduce health inequalities."

They called for planning authorities to consider making more green spaces available to improve the health and wellbeing of their residents.

In an accompanying article in The Lancet, Dr Terry Hartig, from the Institute for Housing and Urban Research at Uppsala University in Sweden, wrote: "This study offers valuable evidence that green space does more than 'pretty up' the neighbourhood - it appears to have real effects on health inequality, of a kind that politicians and health authorities should take seriously."

David Tibbatts, from GreenSpace, a charity which promotes parks in urban areas, said that they were threatened by "decades of decline" in some areas.

"The study confirms what we have been saying for many years - parks are important for health and everyone should have access to high quality, beautiful and vibrant green spaces. "Unfortunately, despite the benefits green spaces bring to communities, our research has shown a decline in park services that has spread across more than 30 years.

"Despite increase recognition of their role in areas such as improved health, far too many parks teams find their revenue budgets are still under continuous threat."

Professor Barbara Maher from the Lancaster Environment Centre said her research had shown that roadside trees improve health by protecting people from pollution.

"Urban and roadside trees may be an under-used resource both in terms of acting as natural 'pollution monitors' and actively screening people, especially, children and the already ill, from the damaging health effects of particle pollution," she said.

http://www.bestwaytoinvest.com

Now the stock market will continously try to anticipate an imminent turnaround but I'm finally starting to hear some sensible reality from some of the Kool Aid bulls in various media outlets. They still are far more bullish than I am; but at least they are not spouting the same level of nonsense they were even 6 months ago. If you are too young to have been aware of it, and choose not to read up on it - go ask your parents how the 70s to very early 80s were and then prepare for it. We're heading there; I believe a new round of panic will ensue as states face reality in their budgets for fiscal summer 09 to summer 10. I believe the federal government will be "bailing out" states - but we're going to see service cutbacks (i.e. jobs) of a very large scale in many states. We've outlined this many times over the past year and a quarter - I am only now seeing this seep into consciousness of some media. This along with the personal bankruptcy wave of 2009 will be next year's twin crisis. Yet another reason I have to look away when the Kool Aid folk scream that the U.S. got into trouble first so will rebound first. That's call first in, first out in accounting land. Unfortunately the U.S. economy is not a balance sheet.

 So based on what I wrote about, one should just close up shop and not be in the market for at least 18 months. But again, the stock market is not the economy and there have to be some ways to make money - always. How? I'm working on that part ;) But first I need all these hedge funds to kill off each other with their computer models and after that great cleansing is over with we might have a playing field that makes a little sense. Until then, we like a hefty portion of cash.

--

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7716207.stm

Surgery beneficial in heartburn

People with persistent heartburn should be considered for early surgery to prevent a lifetime of popping pills, NHS research suggests.

A year after keyhole surgery, only 14% of patients were still taking medication, compared with 90% of those treated with drugs alone.

The Ł1m trial of 800 patients suggests surgery should be done more routinely in patients with chronic acid reflux.

Experts said there was a view among GPs that surgery was "too extreme".

Researchers at the University of Aberdeen co-ordinated the trial of laparoscopic fundoplication at 21 hospitals around the UK.

For some people, it is a serious problem which could potentially mean a lifetime of tablet taking
 

Professor Roger Jones, King's College London

The results so far suggest the procedure, although expensive at Ł2000 per patient, is cost-effective because reflux sufferers no longer have to take medication and their quality of life improves.

But they are following the patients for five years to check the benefits are long-term.

The operation involves wrapping a piece of the stomach around the oesophagus to create a new valve to prevent acid backing up from the stomach.

It used to be done by opening up the chest cavity, but with the advent of keyhole surgery is now a lot safer.

Common problem

Reflux is a very common condition with 20% of the population experiencing it at some point in their lives.

Those at the more severe end of the spectrum end up taking tablets for the rest of their lives - potentially for 20 to 30 years in younger patients - and few currently receive surgery.

Study leader, Professor Adrian Grant, said: "It looks pretty promising.

"I think these results will mean that surgeons will be suggesting the operation in those patients who are not quite so bad."

He added: "Like all surgery, fundoplication has some risks, but the more troublesome the symptoms, the greater the potential benefit from the operation."

Professor Roger Jones, head of general practice at King's College London and chair of the Primary Care Gastroenterology Society said surgery was often regarded as "too extreme" for something which is not a serious problem.

"But for some people, it is a serious problem which could potentially mean a lifetime of tablet taking."

http://www.bestwaytoinvest.com/

The economic news was horrid this week - as always the questions are how much is priced in? I expect the news to get much worse in the half year ahead but the bulls will grasp any positive piece of data as "the turning point!" so expect some 180 degree turns (in pre market of course) as somewhere in the ocean of reports coming will be an outlier that can be used to thrash the short side. The greater trend is obviously still down and within that trend will come some short lived, but strong, rallies - but only the nimble can even attempt to bother. Friday alone the nimble with a crystal ball could of made 2 full round trips in and out. For most it won't be worth trying to tempt fate because if you bite on the cheese for even a day too long you get stuck in a trap. This remains a black hole for investors and longer term oriented traders; the Wild Wild West is left in the hands of the daytraders and HAL9000.

http://www.marketwatch.com/

This whip-saw trading pattern may stem from big investors looking to raise cash by selling stocks, commodities, futures and anything else that's easily unloaded. A rally encourages these investors to sell; when stocks are beaten down enough, other investors step in.

"The hedge funds and highly leveraged funds are unwinding positions. Every rally you get tends to encourage more liquidation," said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at $500 million Confluence Investment Management LLC in St. Louis, Mo.

But there's more to the market than hedge funds, he notes.

"Let's face it, if you're a value manager, you're a kid in a candy store. You have no trouble finding stocks that are at historically cheap values," he said.

--

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081107/bs_nm/us_berkshire

Buffett has committed more than $27 billion of Berkshire's money this year to make acquisitions, finance takeovers and invest in blue-chip companies such as General Electric Co (GE.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N).

The investments give Berkshire new ways to grow as the credit crisis drives asset values down and makes it harder for other companies to borrow.

Despite the investments, Berkshire increased its cash stake to $33.37 billion as of September 30 from $31.16 billion in June, although it was down from $44.33 billion at the end of 2007.

"When you can move money from cash earning 2 percent to distressed assets that can earn 20 percent, it creates a lot of value," said James Armstrong, president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates in Pittsburgh, which owns Berkshire stock. "Buffett isn't doing it with an eyedropper."

--

http://www.bestwaytoinvest.com/stories/the-random-markets-nonsense

One of my larger fears in this market is seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals as "large pools of money" seem to dominate the trading. I call this casino action; and it's been growing over time but really accelerating of late. In the past it was the increasingly silly lemming reaction to earnings reports - if a company misses by 1 cent in a 90 day period (which is nothing in the bigger picture) it's enterprise value shall drop 20-30% overnight. Or vice versa - all driven by a culture of traders who never even bother to open an earnings press release - whatever Briefing.com or Reuters screams at them (miss! beat!) drives a company valuations by hundreds of millions, sometimes multi billions within seconds. Nonsense.

That has now grown over the past year even further - now companies are changing value by 10-15% on a daily basis - multi billion dollar companies. Not some fly by night dot coms or companies with no defensible business model. I see 50, 75 year old companies trading as if they are small caps with $5 million in revenue. It really creates a circus atmosphere and makes the stock market lose a lot of credibility. If its hedge funds, if its the power of ETFs, if its an A.D.D. video game generation of traders now in their 20s, 30s and early 40s who now dominate trading desks - I don't know. But it is what's been created.

The long term result of this is people will completely abandon the markets as there is no advantage to actual thinking. I personally don't like casinos because I have little to no advantage - the idea is in financial markets you can if you put in the grunt work. Now it appears that this is not the case. And it is not just equity markets - I wanted to pass along some conversation on Realmoney.com today, by someone who has been a long time oil trader.... again none of this is healthy and until (if) it stops there is no investing to be had. Just trading. Mostly by computers based on programs written by PhDs. And we're just onlookers.

How ridiculous is this? What will the 'experts' (like me, supposedly) DO to give 'expert insight' into such a market? What can anyone say? Crack spreads for gasoline have been NEGATIVE for the last few weeks -- does anyone perceive what this means? It means that the refining product is WORTH LESS than the raw product that makes it -- it's like buying raw iron and losing money manufacturing it into steel girders, buying coffee beans and getting less for a cup of coffee ....... How many industries can survive under these conditions and for how long? That's what the refiners are laboring under ---

RIDICULOUS.

I have noticed the same thing Daniel, which is probably due to program trading... I think normal supply and demand momentum is dead, its all hedge fund program trading lately based on emotion and hype..

11/7/2008 9:24 AM

http://www.cbsnews.com

The money rolled in quickly -- more quickly than is usual for a new member of Congress. On his 2003 disclosure, he listed $9,678,775 from the firm, enough to force a footnote that specified he had earned the money before his election.

His stock listings on the same form are filled with the all-too-familiar companies from the economic collapse: Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, J.P. Morgan.

--

http://news.cnet.com/

Feature films coming to YouTube

YouTube will begin offering feature films produced by at least one of the biggest Hollywood movie studios possibly as early as next month, according to an executive with a major entertainment company.

For months, Google, YouTube's parent company, has been talking to the major film companies about launching an ad-supported, streaming movie service, two execs with knowledge of the negotiations told CNET News. "It's not imminent," said one of the executives. "But it's going to happen. I would say you can expect to see it, if all goes well, sometime within the next 30 to 90 days."

To be sure, not all the studios are prepared to give YouTube full-length movies. Canadian film company Lionsgate agreed in July to give YouTube access to only short movie clips. At least one other studio is trying to cut a similar deal for short-form content with Google, said a separate high-level industry insider.

There's skepticism in some circles about whether enough ads can be placed into a streaming movie to make it profitable without also overloading viewers with commercials. Another sticking point with some of the film companies is Google's insistence on using a specific ad format for feature films, according to two studio sources. They declined to specify which ad unit Google prefers--whether it's prerolls or postrolls or something else--but said some of the studios want the final say on how to advertise to viewers.

Google declined to discuss specifics, but a company spokeswoman issued this statement: "We are in negotiations with a variety of entertainment companies. Our goal is to offer maximum choice for our users, partners, and advertisers."

What is certain is that YouTube's original hope of building a behemoth business exclusively around short, homemade videos is, to this point at least, a bust. The company captured the world's imagination by showcasing 10-minute long user-generated videos but the strategy hasn't yielded much in the way of profits. Three years later, the company is turning to professionally made content.

YouTube vs. Hulu
By choosing this route, YouTube must go head-to-head against the Web's reigning king of streaming long-form video: Hulu.

A showdown between Hulu and the 3-year-old YouTube was inevitable. Consider that Hulu, the joint video venture formed by NBC Universal and News Corp., attracts only a fraction of the 80 million people who visit YouTube each month, but Hulu still managed to generate nearly the same revenue in its first year in business, according to reports.

Over the past year, Hulu's advantages over YouTube have become clear. Hulu attracts more ad revenue because advertisers are more comfortable with full-length TV shows and films more than they are with user-generated fare. Something else Hulu has going for it is a superior viewing experience. Hulu's player offers some of the clearest images found on the Web.

YouTube's new wide-screen player presents video in a less pixilated 16:9 format than the site's standard player, but it falls short of providing Hulu-esque quality.

But here's what YouTube offers that Hulu can't: 80 million monthly visitors. No other video site comes close to reaching an audience of that size.

"We'd love to have our long-form content in front of that audience," said an executive with a studio close to reaching an agreement with YouTube.

YouTube's move to join the growing number of competitors trying to deliver movies over the Internet isn't entirely unexpected. Last month, CBS, parent company of CNET News, announced it had agreed to post full-length TV shows on YouTube. That same month, Google rolled out a new wide-screen video player built to display long-form content.

In addition, Google has lamented publicly YouTube's inability to generate significant income. Some people, including me, predicted it was only a matter of time before Google began obtaining rights to TV shows and films.

But I didn't believe Google could manage to shore up relations with Hollywood as quickly as it did.

Kinder, gentler relations?
YouTube was supposed to be despised by the entertainment industry. Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman last summer called YouTube a "rogue company." YouTube became the Web's No. 1 video site and amassed an enormous following, partly by becoming a favorite place for people to post pirated clips of TV shows and movies. YouTube got rich on the backs of filmmakers, or so it seemed to many content owners.

It didn't help that Google often took a hard line in negotiations with the studios, according to multiple sources. Things got hostile enough for Viacom, parent company of Paramount Pictures, to file a $1 billion copyright lawsuit against Google last year. That case continues to play out in the courts.

But then Google's approach to Hollywood changed. Google actually began wooing the studios. The search company, which has said often that it doesn't want to be a media company, won over many a bitter studio suit by developing systems that help them either thwart piracy or profit from it. Google representatives also became more flexible about sharing ad revenue, according to insiders.

How far the relationship between Hollywood and Google will go is anybody's guess. It's going to be hard for YouTube to land Universal or 20th Century Fox because each has a parent company that owns a stake in Hulu.

"Will (Google) try to get into the same space as Hulu, of course," said one studio executive. "Lots of people will."

Google also wants to deliver all the ads and this is problematic because some other companies do a better job, according to one of the executives. He singled out Auditude, which enables a content owner to insert ads into clips wherever they might appear on the Web. This means that if someone posts a pirated copy to some blog or message board, Auditude can slip an ad within the player and allow the rightful owner to turn a buck.

The one thing that Google and YouTube should be encouraged about is the growing number of Hollywood executives who believe there is plenty of interest in viewing films on PCs.

"Our movies are consumed frequently and for long periods of time on the net," said the exec whose company is in talks with Google. "We're big believers in long-form feature film content on new media platforms."

11/2/2008 8:20 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/

NO TURNING POINT YET

Despite a stellar weekly performance, world stocks did have their worst month ever in October, falling almost 20 percent.

There is little debate that stocks are cheap. State Street estimates that adjusted for leverage and cyclicality, the U.S. earnings multiple is 26 percent below its 147-year average.

It also reckons the 30-year history of MSCI equity index suggests global equities are 39 percent cheaper than their long-term average.

However, even with cheap valuation, the U.S. financial firm's cross-border institutional investment in developed equity markets remains at a record low in the past month.

"These long-term allocators of capital are already the biggest players in equity markets, though flows suggest they are not yet adding to their holdings," State Street said in a note to clients.

"The point at which institutions start buying may mark the turning point in the current market crisis. There have been false dawns."

--

http://www.marketwatch.com/

But the dollar's recent ascent should not be mistaken for a vote of confidence in U.S. economic fundamentals, he said, but rather as a symptom of how bad it is everywhere.

The appreciation "does not reflect the strength of the U.S. economy, but a flight to safety in an international financial crisis and possible worldwide recession," said Chernick, adding, "so that's not good for anyone.

Dollar is 'everyone's friend'

The U.S. Federal Reserve's latest half-percentage point interest rate cut this week didn't derail the dollar's strength.

The benchmark fed funds rate is now at a 1%, second only to Japan's 0.3% key rate as the lowest among industrialized nations.

Although lower rates usually weigh on a currency, because they erode the return on assets denominated in that currency, the opposite is true in times of risk aversion. When investors perceive risky times, they tend to shed the higher-yielding investments funded in the lower-yielding currencies.

At a time of illiquid interbank markets, the need to fund domestic balance sheets around the world is adding to dollar demand, said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Conn.

"Today, it seems that the dollar is everyone's friend. Its role as the world's reserve currency is once again a factor," he said. "It's easier to acquire dollar funding, which can be swapped into the desired currency of choice rather than source a willing lender of that currency in the first place. Knowing this helps understand why the dollar has been in demand despite the fantastic liquidity push from all central banks under the sun."

The recent flight into dollars belies what some analysts and investors fear will be a longer-term loss of confidence in the U.S. economy.

"The move is caused by global investment deleveraging, in which major financial players are reversing (unwinding) risky trades and piling into what is erroneously perceived as the safest haven they can find," such as U.S. Treasury bonds, wrote Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., in emailed comments.

"The main lesson our creditors will learn from this crisis is not to lend American consumers any more money," he said. "While the rest of the world absorbs their losses and moves on, we will be digging our way out of the rubble for years to come."

--

http://www.marketwatch.com

In August, U.S. consumers reduced their debt load by a record amount, with total seasonally adjusted consumer debt dropping by $7.9 billion, a 3.7% annual rate, to $2.58 trillion. That was the first decline since January 1998.

--

http://news.yahoo.com/

It wasn't long ago that many of these countries – known as "emerging markets" in finance lingo – were thought to be immune to financial problems in the developed world. Their governments had decent balance sheets, had paid back international loans, and even stored up funds in "rainy day" reserves. In fact, they were being talked about as engines that could pull America and other wealthy countries out of recession.

But now they're suffering, too. Demand for their goods and commodities is drying up as the great consumer market of the world – the US – folds its wallet.

Even worse, jumpy foreign investors are pulling out of the emerging-market countries, and that's caused currencies in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, and elsewhere to plummet. With weak currencies as well as foreign capital on the run, banks and companies in such countries – and in some cases, governments themselves – are unable to borrow or pay off loans.

There are multiple dangers here. For starters, America's climb out of recession will be all the more difficult without emerging markets to grab on to. At the same time, banks in Western Europe are neck-deep in shaky loans to these countries. One example: Austrian banks' outstanding loans to Eastern Europe are worth more than half of Austria's economic output, or gross domestic product. Default on these loans would spell financial disaster for East and West Europe.

And don't forget the geopolitical considerations. Several of the former Soviet states that are now democracies are in serious financial trouble. And nuclear-armed Pakistan – a weak democracy that is home to Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists – needs close to $5 billion just for short-term survival.

Thankfully, the world is not standing idly by. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), made up of 185 countries and their donations, is acting with speed, muscle, and flexibility.

Last week, it agreed to loan $2 billion to Iceland and $16.5 billion to Ukraine. This week, it worked with the World Bank and European Union to assemble a hefty $25.1 billion rescue package for Hungary. It is in talks with Pakistan.

One complaint about the IMF is that it sets stringent austerity conditions on its loans, just when countries are hurting. This week, however, it announced $100 billion in short-term credit for countries that are basically sound, but have become victims of capital flight and currency devaluation. No strings attached. That's a wise and welcome move.

The IMF is doing exactly what it was set up to do, but will likely need more help. It has a total of $250 billion that can cover small- and medium-sized countries. But economists predict 15 to 20 emerging markets will need assistance, and if a big one like Brazil comes knocking, the IMF won't have enough.

--

http://www.nytimes.com/

The Reckoning

From Midwest to M.T.A., Pain From Global Gamble

On a snowy day two years ago, the school board in Whitefish Bay, Wis., gathered to discuss a looming problem: how to plug a gaping hole in the teachers’ retirement plan.

It turned to David W. Noack, a trusted local investment banker, who proposed that the district borrow from overseas and use the money for a complex investment that offered big profits.

“Every three months you’re going to get a payment,” he promised, according to a tape of the meeting. But would it be risky? “There would need to be 15 Enrons” for the district to lose money, he said.

The board and four other nearby districts ultimately invested $200 million in the deal, most of it borrowed from an Irish bank. Without realizing it, the schools were imitating hedge funds.

Half a continent away, New York subway officials were also being wooed by bankers. Officials were told that just as home buyers had embraced adjustable-rate loans, New York could save money by borrowing at lower interest rates that changed every day.

For some of the deals, the officials were encouraged to rely on the same Irish bank as the Wisconsin schools.

During the go-go investing years, school districts, transit agencies and other government entities were quick to jump into the global economy, hoping for fast gains to cover growing pension costs and budgets without raising taxes. Deals were arranged by armies of persuasive financiers who received big paydays.

But now, hundreds of cities and government agencies are facing economic turmoil. Far from being isolated examples, the Wisconsin schools and New York’s transportation system are among the many players in a financial fiasco that has ricocheted globally.

The Wisconsin schools are on the brink of losing their money, confronting educators with possible budget cuts. Interest rates for New York’s subways are skyrocketing and contributing to budget woes that have transportation officials considering higher fares and delaying long-planned track repairs.

And the bank at the center of the saga, named Depfa, is now in trouble, threatening the stability of its parent company in Munich and forcing German officials to intervene with a multibillion-dollar bailout to stop a chain reaction that could freeze Germany’s economic system.

“I am really worried,” said Becky Velvikis, a first-grade teacher at Grewenow Elementary in Kenosha, Wis., one of the districts that invested in Mr. Noack’s deal. “If millions of dollars are gone, what happens to my retirement? Or the construction paper and pencils and supplies we need to teach?”

The trail through Wisconsin, New York and Europe illustrates how this financial crisis has moved around the world so fast, why it is so hard to tame, and why cities, schools and many other institutions will probably struggle for years.

“The local papers and radio shows call us idiots, and now when I go home, my kids ask me, ‘Dad, did you do something wrong?’ ” said Shawn Yde, the director of business services in the Whitefish Bay district. “This is something I’ll regret until the day I die.”

Selling Risk

Whitefish Bay’s school district did not intend to become a hedge fund. It and four nearby districts were just trying to finance retirement obligations that were growing as health care costs rose.

Mr. Noack, the local representative of Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, a St. Louis investment bank, had been advising Wisconsin school boards for two decades, helping them borrow for new gymnasiums and classrooms. His father had taught at an area high school for 47 years. All six of his children attended Milwaukee schools.

Mr. Noack told the Whitefish Bay board that investing in the global economy carried few risks, according to the tape.

“What’s the best investment? It’s called a collateralized debt obligation,” or a C.D.O., Mr. Noack said. He described it as a collection of bonds from 105 of the most reputable companies that would pay the school board a small return every quarter.

“We’re being very conservative,” Mr. Noack told the board, composed of lawyers, salesmen and a homemaker who lived in the affluent Milwaukee suburb.

Soon, Whitefish Bay and the four other districts borrowed $165 million from Depfa and contributed $35 million of their own money to purchase three C.D.O.’s sold by the Royal Bank of Canada, which had a relationship with Mr. Noack’s company.

But Mr. Noack’s explanation of a C.D.O. was very wrong. Mr. Noack, who through his lawyer declined to comment, had attended only a two-hour training session on C.D.O.’s, he told a friend.

The schools’ $200 million was actually used as collateral for a complicated form of insurance guaranteeing about $20 billion of corporate bonds. That investment — known as a synthetic C.D.O. — committed the boards to paying off other bondholders if corporations failed to honor their debts.

If just 6 percent of the bonds insured went bad, the Wisconsin educators could lose all their money. If none of the bonds defaulted, the schools would receive about $1.8 million a year after paying off their own debt. By comparison, the C.D.O.’s offered only a modestly better return than a $35 million investment in ultra-safe Treasury bonds, which would have paid about $1.5 million a year, with virtually no risk.

The boards, as part of their deal, received thick packets of documents.

“I’ve never read the prospectus,” said Marc Hujik, a local financial adviser and a member of the Kenosha school board who spent 13 years on Wall Street. “We had all our questions answered satisfactorily by Dave Noack, so I wasn’t worried.”

Wisconsin schools were not the only ones to jump into such complicated financial products. More than $1.2 trillion of C.D.O.’s have been sold to buyers of all kinds since 2005 — including many cities and government agencies — an increase of 270 percent from the four previous years combined, according to Thomson Reuters.

“Selling these products to municipalities was pretty widespread,” said Janet Tavakoli, a finance industry consultant in Chicago. “They tend to be less sophisticated. So bankers sell them products stuffed with junk.”

From the Wisconsin deal, the Royal Bank of Canada received promises of payments totaling about $11.2 million, according to documents. Stifel Nicolaus made about $1.2 million. Mr. Noack’s total salary was about $300,000 a year, according to someone with knowledge of his finances. And Depfa received interest on its loans.

In separate statements, the Royal Bank of Canada and Stifel Nicolaus said board members signed documents indicating they understood the investments’ risks. Both companies said they were not financial advisers to the boards but merely sold them products or services. Stifel Nicolaus said its relationship with the boards ended in 2007. Mr. Noack now works for a rival firm.

“Everyone knew New York guys were making tons of money on these kinds of deals,” said Mr. Hujik, of the school board. “It wasn’t implausible that we could make money, too.”

A Bank Goes Global

By the time Depfa financed the Wisconsin schools’ investment, it had already become an emblem of the new global economy. It was founded 86 years ago as a sleepy German lender, and for most of its history had focused on its home market.

But in 2002 a new chief executive, Gerhard Bruckermann, moved Depfa to the freewheeling financial center of Dublin to take advantage of low corporate taxes. He soon pushed the company into Săo Paulo, Mumbai, Warsaw, Hong Kong, Dallas, New York, Tokyo and elsewhere. Depfa became one of Europe’s most profitable banks and was famous for lavish events and large paychecks. In 2006, top executives took home the equivalent of $33 million at today’s exchange rates.

Mr. Bruckermann was a gregarious leader who joked that he hoped to make all employees into millionaires. He divided his time between a London home and a vast farm in Spain, where he grew exotic medicinal plants. And his success fueled an arrogance, former colleagues say.

Mr. Bruckermann once told a trade publication that Depfa, unlike German banks, understood how to benefit from the global economy. “With our efforts, we are like the one-eyed man who becomes king in the land of the blind,” he was quoted as saying.

Mr. Bruckermann, who left the bank earlier this year, did not respond to requests for an interview.

But as Depfa grew, other European banks began competing with the firm. So executives stretched into riskier deals — the sort that would eventually send shockwaves across Europe and the United States.

Some of Mr. Bruckermann’s employees grew concerned about deals like one struck in 2005 with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority of New York, the agency overseeing the city and suburban subways, buses and trains.

For years, municipal agencies like the M.T.A. had raised money by issuing plain-vanilla bonds with fixed interest rates. But then bankers began telling officials that there was a way to get cheaper financing.

Bankers said that cities, like home buyers, could save money with adjustable-rate loans, where the payments started low and changed over time. What they did not emphasize was that such payments could eventually skyrocket. Such borrowing — known as variable-rate bonds — also carried big fees for Wall Street.

The pitches were very successful. Municipalities issued twice as many variable-rate bonds last year as they did a decade earlier.

But variable-rate bonds had a hitch: many investors would purchase them only if a bank like Depfa was hired as a buyer of last resort, ready to acquire bonds from investors who could find no other buyers. Depfa collected fees for serving that role, but expected it would rarely have to honor such pledges.

Mr. Bruckermann’s salespeople traveled the world encouraging officials to sign up for variable-rate loans. And bureaucrats and politicians, including some in New York, jumped in.

By 2006 Depfa was the largest buyer of last resort in the world, standing behind $2.9 billion of bonds issued that year alone. It backed a $200 million bond issued by the M.T.A.

But as Depfa grew, it became more reliant on enormous short-term loans to finance its operations. Those loans cost less, and thus helped the bank achieve higher profits, but only when times were good. Indeed, some employees were worried about that debt.

But Mr. Bruckermann plowed ahead, and it paid off. In 2007, even as the global economy was softening, Mr. Bruckermann persuaded one of Germany’s biggest lenders, Hypo Real Estate, to purchase Depfa for $7.8 billion. Mr. Bruckermann’s cut was more than $150 million. He left the company to grow oranges on his Spanish estate.

The Risks Turn Bad

Last March the delicate web tying Wisconsin, Dublin and Manhattan became an anchor dragging everyone down.

Mr. Yde, the director of business services for the Whitefish Bay district, began receiving troubling messages indicating the district’s investments were declining. Worried, he started coming into his office at dawn, before the hallways of Whitefish Bay High School filled with students.

As the sun rose, Mr. Yde searched for explanations by the light of his computer screen. He Googled “C.D.O.’s.” He called bankers in London and New York. Each person referred him to someone else.

Then notices arrived saying that the bonds insured by Whitefish Bay’s C.D.O.’s were defaulting. It became increasingly likely that the district’s money would be seized to pay off other bondholders. Most, if not all, of the $200 million would probably be lost.

As other districts received similar notices, panic grew. For some boards, interest payments on borrowed money were now larger than revenue from the investments. Officials began quietly warning that they might have to dip into school funds.

“This is going to have a tremendous financial impact,” said Robert F. Kitchen, a member of the West Allis-West Milwaukee school board. Officials say some districts may have to cut courses like art and drama, curtail gym and classroom maintenance, or forgo replacing teachers who retire.

Problems were emerging elsewhere, as well.

Depfa’s executives were realizing that their loans to the Wisconsin schools were unlikely to be repaid. Additionally, bonds all over the world were declining in value, exposing the company to the possibility they would have to make good on their pledges as a buyer of last resort. And Depfa was still borrowing billions each month to cover its short-term loans. By autumn, the short-term debt of the bank and its parent company, Hypo, totaled $81 billion.

Then, in mid-September, the American investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. Short-term lending markets froze up. Ratings agencies, including Standard & Poor’s, downgraded Depfa, citing the company’s difficulties borrowing at affordable rates.

That set off a crisis in Germany, where officials worried that Depfa’s sudden need for cash would drag down its parent company and set off a chain reaction at other banks. The German government and private banks extended $64 billion in credit to Hypo to stop it from imploding.

“We will not allow the distress of one financial institution to endanger the entire system,” Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said at the time.

That crisis spread almost immediately to the M.T.A.

The transportation authority, guided by Gary Dellaverson, a rumpled, cigarillo-smoking chief financial officer, had $3.75 billion of variable-rate debt outstanding.

About $200 million of that debt was backed by Depfa. When the bank was downgraded, investors dumped those transportation bonds, because of worries they would get stuck with them if Depfa’s problems worsened. Depfa was forced to buy $150 million of them, and bonds worth billions of dollars issued by other municipalities.

Then came the twist: Depfa’s contracts said that if it bought back bonds, the municipalities had to pay a higher-than-average interest rate. The New York transportation authority’s repayment obligation could eventually balloon by about $12 million a year on the Depfa loans alone.

On its own, that cost could be absorbed by the agency. But, as the economy declined, the M.T.A. had lost hundreds of millions because tax receipts — which finance part of its budget — were falling. And its ability to renew its variable-rate bonds at low interest rates was hurt by the trouble at Depfa and other banks. The transportation authority now faces a $900 million shortfall, according to officials. It is “fairly breathtaking,” Mr. Dellaverson told the M.T.A.’s finance committee. “This is not a tolerable long-term position for us to be in.”

In a recent interview, Mr. Dellaverson defended New York’s use of variable bonds.

“Variable-rate debt has helped M.T.A. save millions of dollars, and we’ve been conservative in issuing it,” he said. “But there are risks, which we work hard to mitigate. Usually it works. But what’s happening today is a total lack of marketplace rationality.”

In a statement, the transportation authority said that it was exploring options to reduce the cost of the Depfa-backed bonds, that its variable-rate bonds had delivered savings even during the current turmoil and that the agency had remained within its budget on debt payments this year.

However, the transportation authority has already announced it will raise subway and train fares next year because of various fiscal problems, and may be forced to shrink the work force and reduce some bus routes. Some analysts say fares will probably rise again in 2010.

The Depfa fallout doesn’t end there. Rating agencies have downgraded the bonds of more than 75 municipal agencies backed by Depfa, including in California, Connecticut, Illinois and South Dakota. Officials in Florida, Massachusetts and Montana have cut budgets because of C.D.O.’s or similar risky bets.

And Hypo, the German company that bought Depfa, last week asked the German government for financial help for the third time. Depfa has frozen much of its business, according to Wall Street bankers, and though it continues to honor its commitments, some wonder for how long.

The Wisconsin school districts have filed suit against the Royal Bank of Canada and Stifel Nicolaus alleging misrepresentations. Board members hope they will prevail and schools and retirement plans will emerge unscathed. The companies dispute the lawsuit’s claims. Mr. Noack is not named as a defendant and is cooperating with the school boards.

In Mrs. Velvikis’s classroom at Grewenow Elementary in Kenosha, students have recently completed a lesson in which each first grader contributed a vegetable to a common vat of “stone soup.” The project — based on a children’s book — teaches the benefits of working together. The schools have learned that when everyone works together, they can also all starve.

“Our funding is already so limited,” Mrs. Velvikis said. “We rely on parent donations for some supplies. You hear about all these millions of dollars that have been lost, and you think, that’s got to come out of somewhere.”

--

http://www.nytimes.com

In Mexico Drug War, Sorting Good Guys From Bad

MEXICO CITY — Many of the mug shots of drug traffickers that appear in the Mexican press show surly looking roughnecks glaring menacingly at the camera. An anticorruption investigation unveiled last week in the Mexican capital, however, made it clear that not everybody enmeshed in the narcotics trade looks the part.

There was a gray-haired, grandfatherly type who was pushing 70, as well as an avuncular figure with a neatly coiffed goatee and wire-rimmed spectacles perched upon his nose. Some of the five men who found themselves on the front pages of newspapers on their way to jail wore suits, which made them look more like bureaucrats than bad guys.

Among the greatest challenges in Mexico’s drug war is the fact that the traffickers fit no type. Their ranks include men and women, the young and the old. And they can work anywhere: in remote drug labs, as part of roving assassination squads, even within the upper reaches of the government.

It has long been known that drug gangs have infiltrated local police forces. Now it is becoming ever more clear that the problem does not stop there. The alarming reality is that many public servants in Mexico are serving both the taxpayers and the traffickers.

The men in suits, it turns out, were both bureaucrats and bad guys, officials say, corrupt employees high up in an elite unit of the federal attorney general’s office who were feeding secret information to the feared Beltrán Leyva cartel in exchange for suitcases full of cash.

Their arrest, and the firing of 35 other suspect law enforcement officials, represents the most extensive corruption case that this country, which knows corruption all too well, has ever seen. And it raises a question that is on the lips of many Mexicans: how does one know who is dirty and who is clean?

“I’m convinced that to stop the crime, we first have to get it out of our own house,” President Felipe Calderón, who has made fighting trafficking a crucial part of his presidency, said in a speech on Tuesday, after the arrests were announced.

That house is clearly dirty. There is ample evidence that Mexicans of all walks of life are willing to join the drug gangs in exchange for cash, including farmers who abandon traditional crops and turn to growing marijuana and accountants who hide the narco-traffickers’ profits.

There was sporadic evidence in the past that such corruption extended into high-level government offices. An army general who commanded Mexico’s anti-drug unit was arrested and convicted in 1997 after the discovery that he was working for a drug lord on the side. In 2005, a spy working for a drug cartel was discovered working in the president’s office and accused of feeding traffickers information on the movements of Vicente Fox, then the president.

But the abundance of law enforcement officials now believed to be on the take has made Mr. Calderón’s drug war all the more difficult to execute. Traffickers often know beforehand when raids are going to occur. Sometimes dealers plant their people on the teams that carry out the raids to act as saboteurs.

The traffickers’ networks are not foolproof. Mr. Calderón’s government did manage to capture Alfredo Beltrán Leyva, a cartel leader, in January even though the group was receiving inside information. What appears to have happened, officials say, is that the army carried out the raid without involving the attorney general’s office, inadvertently keeping the corrupt officials out of the loop.

The cartel’s leaders, who operate out of Sinaloa State and have been implicated in the killing of a top police commander in Mexico City, were described in local press accounts as being furious that their government moles had not informed them of the raid.

Still, the reach of the drug networks is so extensive that even winning a court conviction against a kingpin is not always enough to claim victory.

Many prison wardens and guards have shown themselves to be corrupt, allowing prominent detainees not only to operate their crime networks from their cells, but also to use their illicit drug proceeds to be as comfortable as possible behind bars, paying for everything from pizza to prostitutes. The cartel leaders sometimes even use their money to escape. The most notorious case was in 2001, when Joaquín Guzmán Loera, the country’s most wanted drug lord, managed to slip out of a maximum security prison in a laundry cart.

The porous nature of Mexican penitentiaries has prompted Mr. Calderón to increase the number of transfers of drug lords to the United States prison system. The United States has already filed the paperwork to extradite one of the officials accused last week of corruption. The official, Miguel Colorado González, 68, was a top manager in the government organized-crime office known by the Spanish acronym Siedo.

Mr. Calderón is not the first president to try to root out corruption. President Ernesto Zedillo reorganized the nation’s federal police at least twice; each time traffickers quickly infiltrated the force and bought off leading officials. His successor, Mr. Fox, tried and failed to clean up law enforcement as well.

Mr. Calderón’s efforts have been sustained enough that the traffickers have begun a vicious counterattack; so far this year, about 4,000 people — including police officers, soldiers, criminals and civilians — have been killed in an extraordinary wave of violence linked to organized crime.

The latest corruption scandal has prompted President Calderón’s attorney general to order a restructuring and purging of his office, and specifically of Siedo, which was formed from another agency that was shut down after being infiltrated by drug spies.

The government has ordered more lie detector tests for officials in delicate posts, beefed-up background checks and better salaries for underpaid police officers. But the amount of cash that the traffickers throw around — which Jorge Chabat, a security analyst, calls “enough money to buy part of the state” — makes government salaries seem laughable. Clearly, the government cannot compete peso for peso.

In some cases, finding out who has strayed from the straight and narrow should be a simple matter of following the money. Mr. Colorado González is reported to have bought four luxury vehicles in one year. Expensive jewelry was found in his home. His bank account was bulging.

In Tuesday’s speech, a clearly frustrated Mr. Calderón said that the fight to clean up Mexico depended on citizens putting their country first and respecting the law above all else. He suggested that the small bribes so often demanded by the officer on the beat, and accepted by the public as normal, for infractions real and imagined, were not disconnected from the government official receiving millions of dollars in drug profits.

“We need a stronger society, a society that lives the principle of legality with conviction, that encourages, promotes, spreads and educates its children with values,” Mr. Calderón said. In other words, there has to be a line people will not cross, even for a suitcase full of cash.

--

http://www.forbes.com/

You can expect to see more serious consequences for missing a payment. Some lenders are lowering credit limits or hiking up interest rates after just one missed payment. When credit scoring companies, such as Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) see these negative shifts in your credit, your credit score is probably going to go down. Be aware that some credit cards are decreasing credit limits or increasing interest rates even if you're not at fault. Be sure to monitor your credit card statement. Lenders are allowed to increase your interest rate without even telling you.

You will find that your credit score is going to matter more now than it ever did before, and you'll want to protect it. Credit card companies are not the only suddenly more cautious lenders out there. For example, you may find it harder to get a car loan and you may see student loan interest rates going up. "Lenders are going to be cherry-picking customers," says Gerri Detweiler, author of The Ultimate Credit Handbook: How to Cut Your Debt and Have a Lifetime of Great Credit. You're probably going to need a decent credit score to get a good deal on a loan. Expect to need a credit score about 100 points higher than what you may have needed in the past for a particular loan.

You shouldn't stop using credit cards altogether, as we're realizing our credit score is going to be more important as lenders get choosier. In fact, now may be the time to prove yourself to lenders as a trustworthy investment. Keep your debt low and your credit strong, and lenders will be eager to work with you. You may find you'll get benefits with good credit that you haven't been able to get in the past.

--

http://www.forbes.com

Digging into the pharmaceuticals sector, we find several potential candidates that appear primed for bearish trading opportunities. One stock that has performed particularly poorly is Biovail (nyse: BVF - news - people ). As you might suspect, the company develops, manufactures and distributes pharmaceutical products. BVF also provides a wide range of services from research and development, through clinical testing and regulatory filings to full-scale manufacturing.

Technically speaking, the stock has been in a steep decline since July 2007, falling more than 68% from its highs near $26.50 per share. The equity is currently struggling to hold onto support at the 7 level as it battles resistance at its descending 10-week and 20-week moving averages. What's more, short-term resistance is building at the 8.5 level, which has held BVF in check since early October.

Despite this weak performance in the shares, options players are betting on a rebound. The SOIR, which compares put open interest against call open interest among options that expire in less than three months, stands at 0.18. This low reading indicates that call open interest more than quintuples put open interest among near-term options. What's more, this ratio is lower than 96% of all those taken during the past year, indicating that options traders have been more optimistic only 4% of the time in the prior 52 weeks.

Another pharmaceutical company in trouble is Merck (nyse: MRK - news - people ). This member of the Dow Jones industrial average has produced some of the most well-known drugs in the industry, including Propecia, Singulair, Vioxx and Zocor. Despite the company's notoriety, the security has been trapped in a downtrend under its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since January. During this time frame, MRK has plunged more than 48%, tagging a fresh multi-year low in early October. But, while the shares have since rebounded from these lows, MRK continues to be capped by its 10-week moving average. This trend line has taken up residence in the 30-31 region, an area that has provided stiff short-term resistance for the equity since mid-October.

Schering Plough (nyse: SGP - news - people ) is another struggling pharmaceutical stock that could make for a nice bearish play. Since setting a near-term peak of 33.40 in mid-October 2007, SGP has plunged more than 57% while battling overhead resistance from its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. The shares are now trading in the teens and have bounced between support at the 13-level and resistance at the 15-level since mid-October 2008. The equity is currently trading near the upper rail of this trading range and could be poised for another drop to the 13-region or below.

Options players are smitten with the drug czar. The SOIR sits at 0.65 in the 35 percentile of its annual range. Meanwhile, Zacks.com reports that six of the 11 analysts following the shares still rate them a "buy" or better. Should the shares be rejected by resistance at the 15-level, it could prompt an unwinding of this lingering optimistic sentiment, creating a downdraft of selling pressure for SGP shares. To take advantage of a retreat in the security, traders should consider the January 2009 17.50 put.

--

http://investopedia.com/?viewed=1

--

11/3/2008 10:57 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Revenge of the Left across the world

Whatever the exact result of the US elections tomorrow, we must assume that the whole governing machinery of Washington and the state capitols will soon be hostile to laissez-faire thinking.

It is not just that the Democrats will win a crushing victory in both houses of Congress, perhaps reaching the 60-seat Senate threshold that lets them steam-roll legislation. It is also that the incoming class of 2008 is of a new creed. Many no longer believe – or actively reject – the free trade and free market catechisms.

As commentator Markos Moulitsas put it in Newsweek: "The big question is, will Democrats nationwide simply 'win' the night–or will they deliver an electoral drubbing so thorough that it signals the utter rejection of conservative ideology and kills the notion that America is a 'center-right' country?" he said.

No matter that statist policies were responsible for this global crisis in the first place. It was Western governments that set interest rates too low for too long, encouraging us all to abuse credit.

It was Eastern governments that held down their currencies to pursue mercantilist trade advantage, thereby accumulating vast foreign reserves that had to be recycled. Hence the bond bubble. This is the deformed creature known as Bretton Woods II. Protectionist Democrats are right to complain that the game is rigged. Free trade? Laugh on.

But at this point I have given up hoping that we will draw the right conclusions from this crisis. The universal verdict is that capitalism has run amok.

In any case the damage caused as credit retrenchment squeezes real industry is likely to be so great that Barack Obama may have to pursue unthinkable policies, just as Franklin Roosevelt had to ditch campaign orthodoxies and go truly radical after his landslide victory in 1932. Indeed, Mr Obama – if he wins – may have to start by nationalizing the US car industry.

For those who missed it, I recommend Edward Stourton's BBC interview with Eric Hobsbawm, the doyen of Marxist history.

"This is the dramatic equivalent of the collapse of the Soviet Union: we now know that an era has ended," said Mr Hobsbawm, still lucid at 91.

"It is certainly greatest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. As Marx and Schumpeter foresaw, globalization not only destroys heritage, but is incredibly unstable. It operates through a series of crises.

"There'll be a much greater role for the state, one way or another. We've already got the state as lender of last resort, we might well return to idea of the state as employer of last resort, which is what it was under FDR. It'll be something which orients, and even directs the private economy," he said.

Dismiss this as the wishful thinking of an old Marxist if you want, but I suspect his views may be closer to the truth than the complacent assumptions so prevalent in the City.

To those who still think that business can go on as normal now that EU taxpayers have had to rescue the financial system, I can only say: what will happen to London if EU exchange controls are imposed, or if leverage is restricted by draconian laws – as demanded by the German, Dutch, and Nordic Left?

Does the UK still have a blocking minority under EU voting rules to stop a blitz of directives that could shut down half the activities of the City – or the 'Casino' as they say in Brussels? I doubt it.

Who thinks that the three key Commission posts – single market, competition, and trade – will still be held by free marketeers when the new team comes in next year?

In Germany, Oskar Lafontaine's Linke party now has 23pc support in Saarland on a Marxist pledge to nationalize banks and utilities. Needless to say, the Social Democrats (SPD) are shifting hard Left to protect their flank.

"The rule of the radical market ideology that began with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan has ended with a loud bang," said Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister and SPD candidate for chancellor next year.

"We need a comprehensive new start, so we can reestablish our society on fresh foundations. People create value, not locusts," he said.

France has its own Gaullist version on this, seizing on the crisis to launch the most far-reaching strategy of state intervention since the 1970s.

"Laissez-faire, c'est fini," said President Nicolas Sarkozy. "We will intervene massively whenever a strategic enterprise needs our money."

Such language can now be heard daily across Europe. It can only intensify as the fall-out from the EU's €1.8bn trillion (Ł1.4 trillion) bank rescue becomes clearer, and as Europe's elites discover that their own banks are the most leveraged in the world and have played their own Wagnerian part in Gotterdammerung.

European and UK banks are five times more exposed to emerging markets than US banks. They alone hold the collective time-bomb of $1.6 trillion (Ł990bn) in hard currency loans to Eastern Europe – now starting to detonate in Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, and even Russia.

At some point, Europe's political class will face the awful truth that their own credit bubbles are just as bad – and perhaps worse – than the excesses of US sub-prime property. As that occurs, the shock will move by degrees from revulsion to political rage.

Professor Hobsbawm, who spent his youth watching Hitler's rise in Berlin, has a warning for those who think this will help the Left in any recognizable form. "In the 1930s, the net political effect of the Depression was to enormously strengthen the Right," he said.

America was the great exception, as it may prove to be again. I for one will take the enlightened "socialism" of Barack Obama any day over the Hegelian broth nearing the boil in Europe.

-- 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has covered world politics and economics for a quarter century, based in Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels. He is now International Business Editor in London.

--

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

The talk of combined fiscal and monetary stimulus helped lift Tokyo's Nikkei stock index above 9,000, ending its seemingly unstoppable slide. The bourse is still trading at levels first reached in 1983 – a warning to the rest of the world of what can happen to equities once a country succumbs to debt deflation.

Japan held rates at zero for nearly six years in its decade-long struggle against deflation. When that was not enough it resorted to "quantitative easing", a technical term for what amounts to printing money on huge scale.

The Bank of Japan had hoped to nudge the country to normal rates over time but the violence of the global credit crisis has now brought the fragile recovery to a standstill. The economy began to contract in the second quarter. The trade ministry said industrial output is likely to fall 2.3pc in October, and 2.2pc in November.

Leading exporters Toyota, Honda, Sony and Canon have all slashed earnings forecasts, while the electronics companies Hitachi and Toshiba both reported a loss over the last three months. e_SClB"We think that Japanese rates will be cut all the way to zero again, most likely in January," said Mark Williams from Capital Economics. "We expect a return to deflation next year in the wake of the collapse in global commodity prices."

Japan remains the world's top creditor nation by far with a $15 trillion pool of savings and some $3 trillion in net overseas investments. The ups and down in Japanese sentiment can have a powerful effect on world markets.

A mixed army of life insurers, pension funds, and housewives with margin trading accounts, as well as foreign hedge funds, borrowed at near zero rates during the credit bubble to chase higher yields across the world, pushing up asset prices from Australia to South Africa, Brazil and Britain.

This yen carry trade – estimated at $1.4 trillion in all its forms – has now reversed violently as flight from global markets leads to yen repatriation. This has forced up the currency by almost 40pc against the euro and sterling since August, and by almost 50pc against the Australian dollar

Those playing the carry trade with high leverage have been caught in a brutal squeeze as margin calls force investors to liquidate assets. This in turn has pushed the yen even higher, setting off a vicious circle. The yen has fallen back this week as US rate cuts and swap agreements with emerging market economies help restore a degree of global confidence, but few in Japan are yet convinced the coast is clear.

Michael Taylor, from Lombard Street Research, said Japan had enough leeway to "turn on the fiscal tap" after pursuing a tight budgetary policy in recent years, but doubted whether the latest spending package will achieve much over time.

"Japan is clearly in recession so this will help," he said. "But you need continual, increasing doses to keep things going, otherwise its just a one-shot gain."

--

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion Ł2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. Iceland’s demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (Ł47bn). The Germans have lost $22bn.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk. It threatens to become “the second epicentre of the global financial crisis”, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America.

Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.

Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.

Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall.

Broadly speaking, the US and Japan sat out the emerging market credit boom. The lending spree has been a European play – often using dollar balance sheets, adding another ugly twist as global “deleveraging” causes the dollar to rocket. Nowhere has this been more extreme than in the ex-Soviet bloc.

The region has borrowed $1.6 trillion in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs. A few dare-devil homeowners in Hungary and Latvia took out mortgages in Japanese yen. They have just suffered a 40pc rise in their debt since July. Nobody warned them what happens when the Japanese carry trade goes into brutal reverse, as it does when the cycle turns.

The IMF’s experts drafted a report two years ago – Asia 1996 and Eastern Europe 2006 – Déjŕ vu all over again? – warning that the region exhibited the most dangerous excesses in the world.

Inexplicably, the text was never published, though underground copies circulated. Little was done to cool credit growth, or to halt the fatal reliance on foreign capital. Last week, the silent authors had their moment of vindication as Eastern Europe went haywire.

Hungary stunned the markets by raising rates 3pc to 11.5pc in a last-ditch attempt to defend the forint’s currency peg in the ERM.

It is just blood in the water for hedge funds sharks, eyeing a long line of currency kills. “The economy is not strong enough to take it, so you know it is unsustainable,” said Simon Derrick, currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon.

Romania raised its overnight lending to 900pc to stem capital flight, recalling the near-crazed gestures by Scandinavia’s central banks in the final days of the 1992 ERM crisis – political moves that turned the Nordic banking crisis into a disaster.

Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth – or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Iceland’s debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.

The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the country’s foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months.

Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.

The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugal’s biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the state’s emergency credit guarantees.

Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says there is an imminent danger that East Europe’s currency pegs will be smashed unless the EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.

“The system is paralysed, and it is starting to look like Black Wednesday in 1992. I’m afraid this is going to have a very deflationary effect on the economy of Western Europe. It is almost guaranteed that euroland money supply is about to implode,” he said.

A grain of comfort for British readers: UK banks have almost no exposure to the ex-Communist bloc, except in Poland – one of the less vulnerable states.

The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined. Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates. Didn’t they tell you?

--

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Dollar roars back as global debts are called in

For six years the world has been borrowing dollars to bet on property, oil, metals, emerging markets, and every bubble in every corner of the globe.

This has been the dollar "carry trade", conducted on a huge scale with high leverage. Now the process has reversed abruptly as debt deflation - or "deleveraging" - engulfs world markets. The dollars must be repaid.

Hence a wild scramble for Greenbacks which has shaken the global currency system and shattered assumptions about the way the world works. The unwinding drama reached a crescendo yesterday as the euro fell to $1.28, down from $1.61 in July. The slide in the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Korean won, among others, has been stunning.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said US mutual funds, pension funds, and life insurers invested a big chunk of their $22 trillion (Ł13.5 trillion) of assets overseas to earn a higher yield during the boom. They are now in hot retreat as the emerging market story unravels. "There is a complete rethink going on. People are bringing their money back home," he said.

Hedge funds are 75pc dollar-based, regardless of where they come from. Many are now having to repatriate their dollars as margin calls, client withdrawls, and the need to slash risk forces them to cut leverage. The hedge fund industry had assets of $1.9 trillion at the peak of the bubble.

Data collected by the Bank for International Settlements shows that European and UK banks have five times as much exposure to emerging markets as US and Japans banks, with surprisingly big bets in Latin America and emerging Asia - where they rely on dollar funding rather than euros.

The fear is that deflating booms in these frontier economies will have an 'asymettric' effect on the currency markets, setting off another round of frantic dollar buying. "It is not impossible that the euro could collapse completely against the dollar, going back to 2001 levels," said Mr Jen.

He said the "composite" dollar-zone including China, the Gulf oil states, and other countries locked into the US currency system, will together have a current account surplus next year. The de-facto euro bloc of the core euro-zone and Eastern Europe is moving into substantial deficit. This creates a subtle bias in support of the dollar.

Of course, much of the currency shift this year is a natural swing as the crisis rotates from the US to Europe and beyond. The dollar was pummelled in the early phase of the crunch when economists still thought Europe, Japan, China and the rest of the world would decouple, powering ahead under their own steam. The Federal Reserve's dramatic rate cuts were seen then as a reason to dump the dollar.

The decoupling myth has now died. The euro-zone and Japan appear to have fallen into recession before the US itself, led by a precipitous fall in German manufacturing.

The ultra-hawkish stance of the European Central Bank - which raised rates in July - is now viewed as a weakness. Foreign exchange markets are no longer chasing the highest interest yield: they are instead punishing those where the authorities are slowest to respond to the downturn.

A hard-hitting report by Citigroup this week said the ECB had unwisely ignored screaming signals from the bond markets earlier this year for a rate cut. "The ECB did not listen. Not only did they no reduce rates as they should have but they increased them in one of the biggest policy mistakes of 2008," it said.

The spectacular dollar rebound has geostrategic implications. Heady talk earlier this year that dollar hegemeny was coming to an end - or indeed that the US was losing its status as a financial superpower - now seems very wide of the mark.

--

http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Do our rulers know enough to avoid a 1930s replay?

Events are moving with lightning speed as the global credit freeze evolves into something awfully like a classic trade-depression.

The commodity and emerging market booms are breaking in unison, leaving no more bubbles left to burst. Almost every corner of the world is now being drawn into the vortex of debt deflation.

The freight rates for Capesize vessels used to ship grains, coal, and iron ore have fallen 95pc to $11,600 since May, hence the bankruptcy of Odessa’s Industrial Carriers last week with a fleet of 52 vessels. Cargo deliveries dropped 15.2pc at the US Port of Long Beach last month, but that is a lagging indicator.

From what I have been able to find out, shipping is slowing as fast as it did in the grim months of late 1931. “The crisis is now in full swing across the entire world,” said Giulio Tremonti, Italy’s finance minister. “It is hitting the real economy, the productive forces of industry. It’s global, it’s total, and it’s everywhere,” he said.

Italy’s industrial output has fallen 11pc in the last year. Foreign orders have dropped 13pc. But we are all in much the same boat. Europe’s car sales fell 9pc in September (32pc in Spain). US housing starts fell to a 45-year low in September.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund had to rescue Hungary and Ukraine as contagion swept Eastern Europe. It would not surprise me if Russia itself were to tip into a downward spiral towards bankruptcy (again) and fascism (again).

Russia’s foreign reserves have fallen by $67bn since August. Ural crude prices fell to $65 a barrel last week, below the budget solvency threshold of the now extravagant Russian state.

The new capitalists have to repay $47bn in foreign loans over the next two months. In Russia, oligarch fiefdoms built on leverage - Mikhail Fridman (Alfa), Oleg Deripaska (Basic Element), and Vladimir Lisin (Novolipetsk) - are lining up for state bail-outs from a $50bn rescue fund.

Brazil is free-fall as well. Sao Paolo’s Bovespa index is down a third in dollar terms in a month. Hopes that the BRIC quartet (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) would take over as the engine of world growth have proved yet another bubble delusion.

China says 53pc of the country’s 3,600 toy factories have gone bust this year. Economist Andy Xie says China is at imminent risk of its own crisis after allowing over-investment to run rampant, like Japan in the 1980s. “The end is near. They’ve been keeping this house of cards going for a long time with bank support,” he said.

Lord (Adair) Turner, the head of Britain’s Financial Services Authority, offers soothing words. “There is no chance of a 1929-33 depression. We know how to stop it happening again,” he said.

I hope Lord Turner is right, but his Olympian certainty bothers me. It assumes that the economic elites a) understand what happened in the 1930s – on that score I suspect that few, other than the Fed’s Ben Bernanke, have delved into the scholarship (sorry, Galbraith’s pot-boiler The Great Crash does not count);

b) that central banks will now jettison the dogma of inflation-targeting that got us into this mess by lulling them into a false sense of security as credit growth and housing booms went mad. Will they now commit the reverse error as credit collapses?

c) understand that non-US banks – especially Europeans – have used the shadow banking system to leverage a $12 trillion (Ł7 trillion) spree around the world, and that this must be unwound as core bank capital shrivels away;

Yes, the Fed made frightening errors in the early 1930s by raising rates into the crisis, but they were constrained by the norms of the age: the fixed exchange system (Gold Standard), and fear of the bond markets. Are today’s central banks are doing much better? The Europeans fell into the trap of equating this year’s oil and food spike with the events of the early 1970s.

As readers know, I view European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates to 4.25pc in July – when Spain’s property market was already crashing, and Germany and Italy were already in recession – as replay of 1930s ideological madness.

You could say the ECB also acted under the constraints of the age: its rigid inflation mandate. But I suspect that Bundesbank chief Axel Weber and German finance minister Peer Steinbruck were quite simply too arrogant to listen to anybody.

Mr Steinbruck insisted that “German banks are far less vulnerable than US banks” just days before the collapse of Hypo Real with €400bn (Ł311bn) of liabilities. Had he not read the IMF reports showing that German and European lenders have an even thinner Tier 1 capital base than American banks?

One can only guess what French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been saying to ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet, but he must have warned in blunt terms that Europe’s leaders would exercise their Maastricht powers to bring the bank to heel unless it slashed rates. Democracies cannot subcontract monetary policy (with all its foreign policy implications) to committees of economists in a fast-moving crisis. Those accountable to their electorates have to take charge.

Whatever occurred behind closed doors, the ECB is now tamed. It has cut rates to 3.75pc, and will cut again soon, perhaps drastically. The risk is that rates have come too late in Europe and Britain to stop a nasty denouement, given the 18-month lag on monetary policy.

We should be thankful that President Sarkozy and Gordon Brown took action in the nick of time to save our banking systems. Their statesmanship should at least spare us mass bankruptcy and unemployment.

But it will not spare us a decade-long toil of pitiful growth – or none at all – as we purge debt. The world stole prosperity from the future for year after year, with the full collusion of governments, regulators, and central banks. Now the future has arrived.

10/30/2008 7:33 PM

http://ask.metafilter.com/

My insomnia is driving me nuts...


I don't have a problem falling asleep, and frequently manage to sleep for 6 or 7 hours. But sometimes, like this morning, I wake up after three or four hours and simply can't get back. I feel awake, but exhausted, when this happens, and I pretty much have to write the remainder of the day off mentally. Taking various tinctures (lemon balm, catnip, passion flower, etc.) right after waking up used to work, but not any more. It's rarely an issue of being woken up by external influences; I wear earplugs at night which block out most sounds.

Any tips on how to get back to sleep?

Have you drunk alcohol in the evening? It has an effect of making it easier to fall asleep but causing you to wake up when the effect wears off after a few hours. If you frequently sleep normal nights, is there anything that distinguishes the ones where you don't? Eating, drinking, napping during the day, whatever. There will be a reason why you wake up on some nights but usually sleep well. Anything racing through your mind when you wake up and can't go back to sleep?

Regular exercise seconded. It was my own miracle cure.

I've been fighting insomnia for years, and with the same problem..waking up around 3 or 4 am. As keijo said, I had that "mind race" thing, along with a panicky "ok, if I fall asleep right now I'll get X hours before work." Between those two things and then random worrying about the future/debt/whatever, I was up for the rest of the day.

I basically just started trying to accept it, and staying up. I'd crack open a book (preferably something not too absorbing) and start reading. Invariably, instead of lying there obsessing about not sleeping, I'd read for 10-45 minutes and pass out. You may have to do this on the couch if you have a spouse, which may ruin its efficacy.

Some other things that I think contributed: no caffeine/alcohol, going to bed the same time every night, not watching tv in bed, an occasional antihistimine. I've also heard exercise does wonders, but I'm a lazy bastard.

What I eventually noticed was that I was obsessing about not getting sleep, and got into this pattern of being terrified every night, thus guaranteeing it. Once I accepted that I was definitely not going to sleep the whole night through, I actually started sleeping.

That, and my creation of a whole other personality through which I began a revolutionary fighting gang bent on destroying the credit industry, and I was cured. But I can't talk about that.

On preview: try the reading thing. Try meditating. I've also just gotten up at that time, and spent the day wiped out. The next night, I was so tired I slept fine.

I don't recommend taking a sleeping pill or anything unless you have 6-8 hours to really sleep it off. Otherwise, you'll be groggy all day.

I too suffer. I have an iPod and a subscription to audible.com. My iPod is by my bed, and when I can't sleep, I listen to audio books. The stories keep my mind from racing and they eventually help me get back to sleep. Actually reading doesn't work, because I have to do it with the light on.

There are prescription sleeping pills with short half lives that you may be able to take in the middle of the night without feeling hungover in the morning. A half an Ambien in the middle of the night (say, 3 or 4 AM) has quickly put me back to sleep without making me wake up groggy. Ambien's half life is about 3-4 hours, I think, but there are sleeping pills that have even shorter half-lives, maybe even as little as an hour. On the flip side, though, taking one of these pills before you go to bed may not take you through the night. Ask your doctor.

Taking an antihistamine before you go to bed may also help keep you asleep, and antihistamine is the active ingredient in most over the counter sleep meds, even though they often charge more for it in sleep meds.

Forcing yourself to fall asleep only makes things worse. Lying there frustrated is the worst thing you can do. If you're awake for more than a half hour get up and do something relaxing or boring for a half hour. Read, play solitaire (with a real deck of cards), organize your sock drawer, etc. No bright lights, no TV, no computer. Lights will only make your brain think it's time to wake up. Then go back to bed and try again.

I've got this problem too. Waking up in the middle of the night is such a frustrating thing. Anyway, quick fix wise, I count. It relaxess me and eventually I space out and fall back to sleep.

Also, it may sound obvious, but re-evaluate your caffeine intake if appropriate - I've noticed, as I get older, the effects of caffeine on my sleep patterns have changed, sometimes just a little can wreak havoc, where I used to down it by the gallon and have little to no effects.

Melatonin. Natural sleeping aid. They sell it just about any pharmacy store.

alcohol and caffeine are the common culprits,

I love listening to mellow music which is very familiar to me. Anything too upbeat or unfamiliar just makes me pay a lot of attention.

I got used to listening to music while falling asleep, and found that once I began to associate certain albums with sleep, I could really relax to that music and fall asleep halfway through it without realising it was happening.

Increase your intake of vitamin B (specifically B6) and calcium.

---

10/31/2008 6:46 PM

http://www.forbes.com/

In Pictures: Rise of the Cyborg

--

11/1/2008 11:27 AM

http://www.forbes.com/home_usa

--

http://www.marketwatch.com/

Moreover, market recoveries typically start strong. The average return for stocks in the 12 months following the end of a bear market is 45%, but if you sat out the first six months of the rally in cash, that 12-month return becomes just 12%, according to a Charles Schwab & Co. study.

"A lot of the recovery tends to occur in the first few months," said Mark Riepe, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "If you wait until the all-clear sign to get back in, you'll have missed out on a lot of the gain."

--

King Henry Paulson says: 'Buy banks!'

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "Considering how hard I work to make what I have, I don't understand why I'm so dumb with money" said Andy Rooney on "60 Minutes." His admission came after a segment about the mysterious $55 trillion of credit default swaps that are traded in a shadow banking system.

"The single dumbest thing I do is invest in the stock market," Andy says. "It's OK if you know what you're doing, but I have no idea what I'm doing and I suspect I'm typical of a lot of Americans too. We know how to make money but we don't know what to do once we get it."

 

Has he got an alternative? You bet: "There's probably a good case to be made for someone like me keeping his money under the mattress. We turn the mattress every couple of months, so at least I'd get to look at it once in a while."

The mattress? Yes, and "Mad Money's" Jim Cramer agrees! Poor guy's in panic mode: On a recent "Today" show he did a flip-flop, telling a shocked Ann Curry: "Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market. Right now. This week. I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock markets." You heard him, stay out of the stock market for five years.

Yikes! Is Mad Jimmy using Cool Andy's "cash under the mattress" strategy? Sounds like it. Like Greenspan's congressional mea culpa last week, Mad Jimmy's admitting he's been misleading you for years. But can you trust them now? Maybe he and the rest of his Wall Street buddies are setting you up. That's right, still misleading you so you don't go bottom-fishing for value deals before them when we finally do hit bottom.

Guess what: Cool Andy's "cash under the mattress" really was a great idea for the past 10 years, what the Wall Street Journal is now calling "the lost decade." Here's how USA Today's long-time mutual fund columnist John Waggoner framed the strategy recently:

"For retirement investors, the bear market has wiped out most gains for the decade." Get it? Not just all the losses since last year's subprime-housing meltdown. Not just the losses since last month's collapse. But all the stock market gains you thought you made the past decade: Yes, all of them, kaput, nada, up in smoke, vanished forever.

Meanwhile, even as the market was tanking in late 2007 Wall Street bankers were splitting the $36 billion in bonuses they siphoned off your hard-earned investments. Here's how Genius John says the "cash under the mattress" strategy works:

"An investor who put $100 a month into the American Funds Growth Fund of America for a decade, for example, would have had $14,562 in his account at the end of September. By Thursday [10 days ago], that would have shrunk to $11,671, not including the fund's upfront sales charge. An investor who had put $100 a month into his mattress for a decade would have $12,000."

Bottom line: You've been scammed: This is total incompetence, bordering on unethical and criminal. If you put your hard-earned $12,000 under the mattress for the last decade, it would have been worth more than the $11,671 accumulated in a mutual fund.

But actually it's far, far worse! Now if you also deduct the fund's 5.75% load and inflation of more than 30% the past decade, you see the stock market's a real loser. In short, after 10 years of blindly trusting the Wall Street's advice about stocks, it turns out that investing in the stock market is not a money-making machine, but a big fat greedy black hole that gobbles up your money.

New ratings champ

The good news? Mad Jimmy has been replaced as the leading TV "talk show host" by a much bigger con artist. The new show is called "The Great American Bailout Giveaway" and plays daily on the U.S. Treasury TV Network. Mad Jimmy's worth maybe a few hundred million. Uncle Warren Buffett, maybe $50 billion. But King Henry Paulson dominates the TV screen lately, because he throwing around over $2 trillion with his straight man, Helicopter Ben Bernanke.

So what's King Henry recommending? That's easy: Banks! Yep, bets on banks! You should too, right? Why not, he's investing $125 billion in them? He must have a lot of confidence in banks to plunk down that much of our cash. Long term, banks "must" be a fab-u-lous investment. But which ones? Well, King Henry's actions speak louder than Mad Jimmy's "take your money out of the stock market for five years" contradictions.

The truth is, Henry's now the biggest power-player in the world. If he pulls this hat trick off, history will put him on par with J. Pierpont Morgan, who rescued the U.S. government twice, from the 1895 depression and the 1907 financial crisis. No wonder he's now the de facto president as well as CEO and "Chief Securities Analyst" for the "New America Corporation."

Many in the global press are calling him "King Henry." I'll bet old buddies at Goldman are calling him "Savior" and will give him a nice "signing bonus" of at least $100 million if he rejoins Goldman, paralleling the 1% investment banking fees we used to get when I was with Morgan Stanley.

Imagine the confidence supporting his recommendations: He tops Uncle Warren's $5 billion investment in Goldman by upping the ante to $125 billion in new capital for nine banks including $10 billion each to his old buddies at Goldman Sachs (GS:

Good bet? Worried? You should be: These jokers drove America into a recession, brought down the global banking system and lost $10 trillion in shareholder value in the meltdown. And yet, while some banks have been off their highs as much as 80%, maybe it is time to think about bottom fishing. After all, they are the bedrock of our economy.

Seriously, when they come back, they'll have a hell of a lot of upside in a recovery. And if they don't, if they sink further, then we'll all suffer because that means King Henry made a bad call and "New America Corporation" will have to file for bankruptcy, which some pundits say has already happened.

But there's a bigger question: Can you trust a man with so many conflicts of interest? Not only is King Henry the chief salesman for Reaganomics and the archconservative Bush administration, he's worth $800 million, he's a long-time investment banker who made $38 million in 2006, the last year he was CEO of Goldman, and he's clearly "feathering his nest," as my grandmother used to call it, so that when he returns to Wall Street Jan. 20 he'll be set up to make hundreds of millions, if not billions for himself personally with his new brand as "Master of the Financial Universe."

Reaganomics is dead ... long live Reaganomics!

And that gets me around to the last "guest" on my show today. You've now heard lots of real and imagined advice from Cool Andy, Mad Jimmy, Genius John and King Henry. So let's consider what they say through the sharp lens of Naomi Klein, author of "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism," an indictment of Reaganomics, free market ideologies, deregulation, privatized government and trickle-down economics.

In a recent online column, "Free Market Ideology is Far from Finished," Nervy Naomi warned us that Reaganomics is not really "dead" just because King Henry and Helicopter Ben are nationalizing America's major financial institutions. The truth is: Reaganomics ideologues are merely faking their death. They're feeding that illusion, while dumping all their toxic debt problems onto clueless taxpayers.

In fact, the meltdown is actually part of Reaganomics "Grand Strategy." Here's Nervy Naomi's analysis:

"Nobody should believe the overblown claims that the market crisis signals the death of 'free market' ideology. Free market ideology has always been a servant to the interests of capital, and its presence ebbs and flows depending on its usefulness to those interests. During boom times, it's profitable to preach laissez faire, because an absentee government allows speculative bubbles to inflate."

Then she delivers a very disturbing warning: "When those bubbles burst, the ideology becomes a hindrance, and it goes dormant while big government rides to the rescue. But rest assured: the ideology will come roaring back when the bailouts are done. The massive debts the public is accumulating to bail out the speculators will then become part of a global budget crisis that will be the rationalization for deep cuts to social programs, and for a renewed push to privatize what is left of the public sector."

Now, put all the advice from today's "guests" in Nervy Naomi's context, and you'll see why we predict Wall Street banks will lead a recovery in the next few years. But then, by 2011, they will once again breach the "moral hazard" barrier as Reaganomics greed resurfaces in a new disguise, creating a new bubble and a bigger meltdown, triggering the "Greatest Ever Global Depression."

10/28/2008 11:12 AM

http://howto.wired.com/

Spruce Up Your Business Card

Unless your business is inherently creative (think: graphic design, cake decorator) the classic route is probably better.

Armed with a sketch and some general preferences, you should be ready to connect the dots. The truly intrepid can tackle the design and printing from home, but the process is typically time consuming and lacks polish.

However, the rest of us are probably better off employing a professional printer. In addition to handling tedious tasks like cutting the cards, a skilled printer can also provide a wealth of overlooked options like raised lettering and glossy finishes. Also, if you're leaning towards the novelty or alternative material cards, you'll save yourself a headache by consulting a pro.

To save money and look like a million, consider using a "bulk printer." There are many (often based in California) who charge less than $25 for 500 full-color, glossy coated cards on heavy cards stock. They'll patch your card onto a large sheet and print it with many others to save you big bucks. You can even print full color on both sides, offering twice the space for your creativity. Search "full color business cards" online.

Still another option that beats all in the quick/cheap category are pre-formatted cards at retail outlets such as Office Max. Stop at the kiosk in the printing area to review the hundreds of design options (they're actually quite decent). Then just type in your name and contact information and review a proof. You can walk out with cards in just hours.

Above all else, remember this: it takes time to dial in an engaging, tonally-appropriate business card. There's nothing wrong with numerous revisions if the end result is perfection.

--

10/28/2008 5:13 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/

The woman in red drives the men crazy, study finds

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – If a woman wants to drive the men wild, she might want to dress in red.

Men rated a woman shown in photographs as more sexually attractive if she was wearing red clothing or if she was shown in an image framed by a red border rather than some other color, U.S. researchers said Tuesday.

The study led by psychology professor Andrew Elliot of the University of Rochester in Rochester, New York, seemed to confirm red as the color of romance -- as so many Valentine's Day card makers and lipstick sellers have believed for years.

Although this "red alert" may be a product of human society associating red with love for eons, it also may arise from more primitive biological roots, Elliot said.

Noting the genetic similarity of humans to higher primates, he said scientists have shown that certain male primates are especially attracted to females of their species displaying red. For example, female baboons and chimpanzees show red coloring when nearing ovulation, sending a sexual signal that the males apparently find irresistible.

"It could be this very deep, biologically based automatic tendency to respond to red as an attraction cue given our evolutionary heritage," Elliot, whose findings appear in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, said in a telephone interview.

The study involved more than 100 men, mostly college undergraduates, who were shown pictures of women and asked to rate how pretty they were, how much the men would like to kiss them and how much the men would like to have sex with them.

Men were shown a woman, with some of the pictures bordered in red and some bordered in white, gray or green. Even though it was the same picture of the same woman, when she was framed in red the men rated her as more attractive than when she was bordered by another color.

Men were then shown photographs of a woman that were identical except that the researchers digitally made her shirt red in some versions or blue in others. And once again, the men strongly favored the woman in red.

The men also were asked, "Imagine that you are going on a date with this person and have $100 in your wallet. How much money would you be willing to spend on your date?" When she was clad in red, the men said they would spend more money on her.

The researchers noted that the color red did not alter how men rated the women in the photographs in terms of likeability, intelligence or kindness -- only attractiveness.

The researchers then had a group of young women rate whether the pictured woman was pretty. Red had no impact on whether women rated other women as pretty, they found.

Gay men and color blind men were excluded from the study.

(Editing by Maggie Fox)

--

10/29/2008 11:42 AM

http://images.businessweek.com/

The Best Cities for Riding Out a Recession

Slide show has great pics of cities

--

http://images.businessweek.com/

Towns That Will Be Hit Hardest by Financial Crisis

Slide show has great city pics

10/26/2008 1:23 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/

A hot cuppa helps melt hearts?

CHICAGO (Reuters) – It may seem unlikely, but simply clutching a warm cup of coffee can bring on a flood of warm feelings, U.S. researchers said on Thursday in a finding that suggests a strong link between physical and emotional warmth.

"Physical warmth can make us see others as warmer people, but also cause us to be warmer -- more generous and trusting -- as well," said John Bargh, a professor of psychology at Yale University in Connecticut, whose research appears in the journal Science.

Bargh and Lawrence Williams of University of Colorado at Boulder ran a series of experiments to test the ties between physical temperature and emotional warmth.

They asked people to briefly hold a hot or iced coffee. Then they were given a packet of information about another person and asked to assess his or her personality traits.

Those who had held the warm cup of coffee were far more likely to assign "warmth" as a personality trait than those who held the icy beverage.

In the second study, volunteers held ice packs or therapeutic heating pads as part of a product evaluation study. Then they were told they could receive a gift certificate for a friend or a gift for themselves.

Those who had held the hot pad were more likely to ask for the gift certificate, while those who held the frozen pack tended to keep the gift.

"These very subtle and relatively simple cues are capable of having a meaningful impact on people's behavior," Williams said in a telephone interview.

He said imaging studies suggest temperature information -- both physical and interpersonal -- are processed in a region of the brain known as the insular cortex.

And he said these associations are likely formed in early childhood, noting that when an infant learns about love and physical closeness it typically happens while snuggling up to a parent's warm body.

"Taking a warm bath. Drinking a cup of tea or coffee. Chicken soup. It's not haphazard that we have a preference for these types of experiences," he said.

Williams said it is no accident that people in Western cultures looking to build new relationships often do it over coffee. "It's better than going out for ice cream," he said.

10/25/2008 10:06 AM

http://news.bbc.co.uk

Daring $1m mid-day heist in Milan

Gino Pederzani opened his shop in Milan's Via Montenapoleone in 1947

Police in Milan are investigating an unusual $1m (Ł628,420) robbery in the heart of the Italian fashion capital.

It was, said the victim, "a masterpiece of its kind". It was certainly daring - in broad daylight and on one of Milan's swankiest shopping streets.

Staff at Pederzani's, one of the city's exclusive jewellers, thought nothing amiss when a window cleaner went to work on the plate glass display.

Dressed in regulation overalls, he propped his ladder against the window.

But then, instead using the bucket and squeegee to clean it, he calmly unscrewed it before scooping an estimated $1m-worth of jewels into his bucket and walking off into the Friday shopping crowd.

This is not the first audacious crime to hit Milan's fashion district this year.

In February robbers tunnelled their way into another top jeweller's - escaping with almost $24m-worth of gems while its owners were away entertaining Hollywood stars at the Oscars.

--

http://www.reuters.com/

Venezuela's Chavez wants to jail rival

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened on Saturday to imprison his main political rival, intensifying a campaign against a man he calls a crime boss just a month before he faces tough regional elections.

Opposition leader Manuel Rosales, who lost to Chavez in the 2006 presidential vote, is governor of the oil producing state of Zulia and is running for mayor of its capital Maracaibo.

"I am determined to put Manuel Rosales behind bars. A swine like that has to be in prison," Chavez said.

Chavez railed against Rosales at a gathering of businessmen in Zulia, urging the audience to vote against his rival for allegedly plotting to assassinate him, running crime gangs and illegally acquiring cattle ranches.

Chavez provided no specific evidence for the charges against the main leader of a fragmented opposition who has solid support in the oil-producing west of the OPEC nation.

Human rights groups say Chavez has increasingly exerted control over branches of power such as the judiciary and become intolerant of critics in almost a decade in power.

The former soldier typically takes to the offensive to stem a rise in support for potential rivals.

Chavez has been campaigning vigorously for his candidates in gubernatorial and mayoral races in the November 23 election but may lose some key posts as Venezuelans worry about crime, inflation and poor public services, pollsters say.

Chavez often makes dramatic threats in speeches without immediately carrying them out. Still, he does follow through on enough of them over time for his threats to concern the people he targets.

--

http://www.newsday.com/

Biggest movies of all-time

The biggest grossing movies at the domestic box office through Oct. 23, 2008. (Source: boxofficemojo.com)

Movies I should check out:

No. 2 - The Dark Knight

Box office gross: $527,441,809

Release year: 2008

No. 4 - Shrek 2

Box office gross: $441,226,247

Release year: 2004

No. 7 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Box office gross: $423,315,812

Release year: 2006

No. 12 - Passion of the Christ

Box office gross: $370,782,930

Release year: 2004 (re-cut in 2005)

No. 15: Finding Nemo

Box office gross: $339,714,978

Release year: 2003

No. 16 - Spider-Man 3

Box office gross: $336,530,303

Release year: 2007

No. 18: The Lion King

Box office gross: $328,541,776

Release year: 1994 (re-released in 2002)

No. 19 - Shrek the Third

Box office gross: $322,719,944

Release year: 2007

No. 20 - Transformers

Box office gross: $319,246,193

Release year: 2007

No. 21 - Iron Man

Box office gross: $318,313,199

Release year: 2008

No. 23 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Box office gross: $317,023,851

Release year: 2008

Pirates of the Caribbean

The trilogy

All the Harry Potter movies

No. 32 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

Box office gross: $291,710,957

Release year: 2005

No. 38 - Shrek

Box office gross: $267,665,011

Release year: 2001

No. 40 - The Incredibles

Box office gross: $261,441,092

Release year: 2004

No. 41 - How the Grinch Stole Christmas

Box office gross: $260,044,825

Release year: 2000

No. 43 - I Am Legend

Box office gross: $256,393,010

Release year: 2007

No. 44 - Monsters, Inc.

Box office gross: $255,873,250

Release year: 2001

No. 46 - NIght At the Museum

Box office gross: $250,863,268

Release year: 2006

Toy Story 1& 2

No. 50 - Cars

Box office gross: $244,082,982

Release year: 2006

No. 51 - Bruce Almighty

Box office gross: $242,829,261

Release year: 2003

No. 62 - Signs

Box office gross: $227,966,634

Release year: 2002

No. 65 - Hancock

Box office gross: $225,102,000

Release year: 2008

No. 66 - WALL-E

Box office gross: $222,104,566

Release year: 2008

No. 67 - National Treasure: Book of Secrets

Box office gross: $219,964,115

Release year: 2007

No. 72 - Aladdin

Box office gross: $217,350,219

Release year: 1992

No. 73 - Alvin and the Chipmunks

Box office gross: $217,326,974

Release year: 2007

No. 75 - Kung Fu Panda

Box office gross: $215,434,591

Release year: 2008

No. 79 - 300

Box office gross: $210,614,939

Release year: 2007

No. 81 - Wedding Crashers

Box office gross: $209,255,921

Release year: 2005

No. 82 - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Box office gross: $206,459,076

Release year: 2005

No. 83 - Ratatouille

Box office gross: $206,445,654

Release year: 2007

No. 92 - Happy Feet

Box office gross: $198,000,317

Release year: 2006

No. 94 - Ice Age: The Meltdown

Box office gross: $195,330,621

Release year: 2006

The Indiana Jones movies

No. 95 - Madagascar

Box office gross: $193,595,521

Release year: 2005

http://ap.google.com/

2 greenhouse gases on the rise worry scientists

By SETH BORENSTEIN – 8 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Carbon dioxide isn't the only greenhouse gas that worries climate scientists. Airborne levels of two other potent gases — one from ancient plants, the other from flat-panel screen technology — are on the rise, too. And that's got scientists concerned about accelerated global warming.

The gases are methane and nitrogen trifluoride. Both pale in comparison to the global warming effects of carbon dioxide, produced by the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels. In the past couple of years, however, these other two gases have been on the rise, according to two new studies. The increase is not accounted for in predictions for future global warming and comes as a nasty surprise to climate watchers.

Methane is by far the bigger worry. It is considered the No. 2 greenhouse gas based on the amount of warming it causes and the amount in the atmosphere. The total effect of methane on global warming is about one-third that of man-made carbon dioxide.

Methane comes from landfills, natural gas, coal mining, animal waste, and decaying plants. But it's the decaying plants that worry scientists most. That's because thousands of years ago billions of tons of methane were created by decaying Arctic plants. It lies frozen in permafrost wetlands and trapped in the ocean floor. As the Arctic warms, the concern is this methane will be freed and worsen warming. Scientists have been trying to figure out how they would know if this process is starting.

It's still early and the data are far from conclusive, but scientists say they are concerned that what they are seeing could be the start of the release of the Arctic methane.

After almost eight years of stability, atmospheric methane levels — measured every 40 minutes by monitors near remote coastal cliffs — suddenly started rising in 2006. The amount of methane in the air has jumped by nearly 28 million tons from June 2006 to October 2007. There is now more than 5.6 billion tons of methane in the air.

"If it's sustained, it's bad news," said MIT atmospheric scientist Ron Prinn, lead author of the methane study, which will be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters Oct. 31. "This is a heads up. We're seeing smoke. It remains to be seen whether this is the fire we're really worried about.

"Whenever methane increases, you are accelerating climate change," he said.

By contrast, nitrogen trifluoride has been considered such a small problem that it's generally been ignored. The gas is used as a cleaning agent during the manufacture of liquid crystal display television and computer monitors and for thin-film solar panels.

Earlier efforts to determine how much nitrogen trifluoride is in the air dramatically underestimated the amounts, said Ray Weiss, a geochemistry professor with Scripps Institution of Oceanography and lead author on a nitrogen trifluoride paper. It is set to be published in Geophysical Letters in November.

Nitrogen trifluoride levels in the air — measured in parts per trillion — have quadrupled in the last decade and increased 30-fold since 1978, according to Weiss, who is also a co-author of the methane paper.

It contributes only 0.04 percent of the total global warming effect that man-made carbon dioxide does from the burning of fossil fuels.

But nitrogen trifluoride is one of the more potent gases, thousands of times stronger at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Methane is more than 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide on a per molecule basis. Carbon dioxide remains the most important gas because of its huge levels and rapid growth.

Still, methane and the potential of future increases is a worry, Weiss and others say.

Its recent increase coincides with anecdotal evidence of more methane being released in the shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean. A scientific survey in late summer found methane levels in the east Siberian Sea up to 10,000 times higher than normal, said Orjan Gustafsson, an environmental scientist at Stockholm University who has just returned from the six-week survey.

Prinn's data are consistent with the early results of "whole fields of methane bubbles" that Gustafsson said he found last month.

The highest methane level increases were seen in monitoring stations in Alert, Canada, which with recent anecdotal evidence points to plants in permafrost thawing and decaying.

Stanford University environmental scientist Stephen Schneider cautioned that the recent increase is new and that "it is pretty hard to be very confident of any trend or big story yet on methane."

Methane levels have kept scientists guessing for the past decade. They were on the rise until about 1997, then soared in 1998 and then leveled off until jumping again in 2006.

 

 

10/23/2008 11:29 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/

U.S. financial turmoil grips South America

WASHINGTON — While the United States wrestled with financial meltdown this fall, Latin American leaders often boasted that their economies were models of stability in an otherwise tumultuous global landscape.

Such confidence gave way, however, to panic this week, as the effects of the U.S. credit crunch and an international downturn wreck havoc on Latin America's formerly booming economies.

On Wednesday, Brazilian officials stoked investor fears by allowing the country's two biggest state banks,Banco do Brasil and Caixa Economica Federal, to buy stakes in private financial firms. Many of the country's largest banks have seen their stock prices plummet, while smaller banks have been strangled by the global credit freeze.

Just a day earlier, Argentina's government shocked the financial world by announcing it planned to nationalize the country's private pension system, which holds about $30 billion in assets, a move that conjured memories of the country's 2001 economic collapse.

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said the nationalization was designed to protect people's pensions from market fluctuations. Most economists, however, read the action as a desperate bid to stave off government loan default in the face of diminishing tax revenues.

The governments of Chile , Peru and other countries in the region are also launching emergency initiatives designed to prop up banks and businesses. On top of that, financial uncertainty has stalled everything from planned deep-water oil drilling off the coast of southeastern Brazil to new iron ore mining projects in Peru .

The White House is trying to halt the slide by scheduling a Nov.15 summit of the so-called Group of 20 countries in the Washington area. The invited countries include Argentina , Brazil , China , Mexico and theEuropean Union .

Yet many economists fear the global picture will get worse before it gets better and said Latin American economies face a grim 2009. Such fears grew on Wednesday as the Dow Jones industrials fell by another 514 points.

"There's no question Latin America is facing a recession," said Peter Hakim , president of the Washington -based think tank the Inter-American Dialogue. "These countries will just have to weather a sharp slowdown and recession with some countries such as Argentina and Venezuela facing something even more serious."

Like other developing regions, Latin America has been hit not just by the credit freeze but also by falling commodity prices driven by falling global consumption. Latin American economies depend heavily on commodities such as soybeans, wheat, petroleum and other exports to generate tax revenue and jobs.

U.S. companies will feel the pain too if Latin American economies slow because many U.S. firms rely on their Latin American operations to offset domestic losses. The booming Brazilian auto market, for example, has been one of the few bright spots for otherwise ailing U.S. auto manufacturers.

What's upset many Latin American leaders is that the economic troubles spoil what has been an unprecedented spell of stability.

With record commodity prices driving up export revenue and inflation falling to all-time lows, Latin American countries were building thriving credit and housing markets for the first time, and many economists had predicted that the region was finally leaving behind its tumultuous past.

The International Monetary Fund , for one, remains optimistic, saying Wednesday that Latin American countries were in a good position to withstand the global shocks. While warning of future deterioration, the report said, the region had not yet reached an economic downward spiral. The IMF predicted 3 percent regional growth next year compared to 4.6 percent this year.

"The region's resilience reflects the progress many countries in the region have made in improving their macroeconomic fundamentals over the past decade," said David Robinson , deputy director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department , according to a news release.

The situation in Brazil , however, could get dramatically worse because some Brazilian banks had engaged in the same kinds of risky practices that sank their U.S. counterparts, said Reinaldo Goncalves , professor ofinternational economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro .

Some banks, for example, did not conduct strict credit checks before approving loans and had overly exposed themselves to swinging international financial markets, Goncalves said.

Brazil's main Bovespa stock exchange fell by 10 percent Wednesday to its lowest level in two years, while the country's currency plummeted. Argentina's Merval stock exchange has fallen by 23 percent just this week.

"Today's action to rescue the banks showed the depth of the crisis," Goncalves said. "It was a positive move because it calmed the clients of these financial institutions. But the institutions were very fragile to begin with and are really being tested now."

Tyler Bridges contributed from Caracas, Venezuela , to this report.

--

10/23/2008 7:16 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/

The session was typical of the recent volatility gripping Wall Street, with stocks swinging in a 7 percent range and the day's final direction only becoming clear in the last minutes of trading.

In an otherwise dismal earnings season, drug makers Amgen Inc, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Eli Lilly and Co offered some relief with stronger-than-expected results and relatively positive outlooks. The three helped lead the S&P health-care index up 1.6 percent.

A rebound in oil prices from their lowest since June 2007 fed a big rally in energy stocks, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron contributing the most to the Dow's 172-point gain.

The day's sharp swings were exacerbated by hedge funds' and mutual funds' so-called forced selling of stocks to raise cash to meet their investors' large-scale redemptions, which also dragged on the market, traders said.

"There's been material turnarounds in the last 15-30 minutes of trading over a couple of trading sessions and there has been no fundamental reason," said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer of Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati.

"There's something unexplainable going on ... the wild swings are leading to speculation that something is going on and perhaps investigations into these erratic moves may take place, if they have not already."

--

http://news.bbc.co.uk

He says that we are seeing a massive flight of capital out of economies perceived to have been living beyond their means - either because they have a substantial reliance on foreign borrowings or because they are net importers of good and services, or both.

--

10/25/2008 12:14 AM

http://www.ft.com

The Washington insider who made Obama rich

McCain made his first million the old-fashioned way: he married the daughter of a wealthy businessman. But Barack Obama, the son of an absent African father and a mother who relied on government-issued food stamps to feed her children, became a millionaire in a more modern manner – on the back of a book deal.

Read this sometime

--

http://www.ft.com/home/us

try this as a link to financial news

--

http://www.timesonline.co.uk

North Korea is clamping down on mobile phones and long distance telephone calls to prevent the spread of news about a worsening food crisis, according to the United Nations investigator on human rights for the isolated communist country.

In a report to the UN General Assembly, Vitit Muntarbhorn, a Thai law professor who has never been allowed to visit North Korea, said that its government is using public executions as a means of intimidating the population, and using spies to infiltrate and expose religious communities.

His report came two days after the World Food Programme said that two thirds of North Koreans do not have enough to eat, in the country’s worst crisis since as many as three million people died of famine a decade ago.

“Sadly, even though the harvest was getting better, we have had devastating floods in 2006 and 2007,” Mr Muntarbhorn said in New York. “Over the past year we have had very worrying information of a very chronic food shortage.”

http://niniane.blogspot.com

Churchill was depressed over losing the 1945 General Election by a landslide, after working himself to the bone to win World War II for the UK. He went on holiday and did painting for a few months. Then he came back to become Prime Minister again in 1951.

He served in Parliament until he died at age 90. By that time, he was hugely popular. He received 300,000 birthday cards for his 90th.

Morals from this:
A. Sometimes people are ungrateful bastards.
B. Eventually they come around.

10/17/2008 10:57 PM

http://www.marketwatch.com/

--

http://www.nytimes.com/

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

--

http://www.businessweek.com/

The Stunning Collapse of Iceland

Forces Sale of Assets

While British retail depositors will be protected, others aren't so lucky. British entrepreneur Robert Tchenguiz lost $1.7 billion in just 24 hours when his property empire collapsed along with Iceland's banking system. Kaupthing had bankrolled Tchenguiz's stakes in British retailer J Sainsbury (SBRY.L) and Mitchells & Butlers (MAB.L) and held the stakes as collateral. When the bank was forced to sell assets in a scramble to deleverage, it called back its loan to Tchenguiz, who had to liquidate his positions to raise the cash.

In 2006, after a currency crisis that hammered the krona, some analysts raised concerns about the high level of leverage in the Icelandic banking system. But many eminent economists and commentators were quick to rush to the country's defense. They noted that Iceland had strong financial regulators, a sound economic environment with low unemployment, and a fully funded pension system. While the country had a large current account deficit, they said, comparing it to emerging economies such as Thailand or Turkey was misguided.

But as Frederic S. Mishkin, a professor at Columbia University and a former economist with the Federal Reserve, noted in a 2006 report titled Financial Stability in Iceland, "If a significant fraction of traders in international financial markets think that Iceland will be undergoing financial meltdown—even if fundamentals don't warrant it—they could create a self-fulfilling prophecy by massively pulling out of Icelandic assets." Mishkin's prophecy just came true.

--

http://www.businessweek.com

Glimpsing the Future

Still, investors will eventually have to picture what the new economic order will look like.

Arguably, a credit crunch or recession makes all of us losers. But even in a severe recession, some businesses survive and prosper—even if only on a relative basis, and even if they take years to muddle through.

"There's always going to be a winner out there," says Ryan Crane, chief investment officer at Stephens Investment Management Group.

Here are five trends that may emerge whenever the crisis finally ends:

1. The strong eat the weak.

In the financial sector, failing banks and brokerage houses have already been gobbled up by safer (if not exactly strong) rivals. Bank of America (BAC) bought up mortgage giant Countrywide Financial and Merrill Lynch (MER). JPMorgan Chase (JPM) absorbed Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) battled over buying Wachovia (WB).

If the economic downturn is bad enough, expect the same trend to hit other industries, as strong players either buy or take market share from companies in financial trouble.

2. Fast-growing companies might not get the funding they need.

The credit crunch is cutting off the financing that helps businesses grow and create new jobs, says Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, a unit of Morningstar (MORN). Companies can't float issues on the stock market or sell bonds—investors won't buy them. And they can't borrow from banks, which are too panicked to lend.

If those conditions persist, it means trouble for new growth companies. "Who is going to make the next Google (GOOG) if there is no money to borrow to build the next Google campus?" Gambera asks.

3. Cash is king.

In a credit-starved economy, the advantage goes to companies with strong cash flow. Gambera cites cigarette maker Altria Group (MO) as a company famous for its strong cash generation.

A healthy balance sheet—without much debt—will also be crucial. "Given the fact that credit markets have totally deteriorated, it's a question of survival," says Gary Wolfer, chief economist at Univest Wealth Management (UVSP).

He believes survivors could include consumer staples and health-care companies that sell products their customers need and that generate lots of cash in the process. He cites Procter & Gamble (PG) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

4. Don't bet on the U.S. consumer.

Wolfer predicts "an awful Christmas" for retailers. But for consumer-oriented companies, the problems aren't just short term.

For a generation, the U.S. has created a "quadruple deficit," Gambera says: a government deficit and a trade deficit, along with heavy borrowing by the financial sector and, finally, by U.S. households. Few expect Americans' reliance on credit cards and cheap home mortgages to continue (BusinessWeek, 10/9/08).

In fact, many commentators see a fundamental shift in the U.S. economy, away from a reliance on both debt and the overstretched American consumer. "The era of the consumer-based U.S. economy is coming to an end," Wolfer says. "Our whole economy is going to be much more export-driven."

5. Don't bet on the global infrastructure boom, either.

Wolfer and others may be pinning their long-term hopes for the U.S. on exports. But there are lots of worries about one force driving global demand for U.S. goods: the building boom in many emerging economies around the world.

In a global slowdown, many are betting that demand for capital equipment, commodities, and energy are going to fall off.

Emerging economies, such as China and India, may not slip into recession, but their rapid growth will probably slow, says Chad Deakins, portfolio manager of the RidgeWorth International Equity Fund. "There are going to be different problems each country is going to have to address, [problems that will] distract them from plans to build infrastructure," he says.

Five years from now, however, Deakins expect emerging countries to start building again. "There are a lot of people in the world who want a higher standard of living and are willing to work for it," he says. "That's capitalism."

--

http://bx.businessweek.com/recession-spending-and-investing/

Recession Spending and Investing

How are the spending habits of citizens affected by the simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity, such as employment, investment, and corporate profits combined with rising prices for almost every commodity? Will the so-called recession be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation? Could the continuing trend lead to a severe or long recession, creating an economic depression.

Recession Spending and Investing is part of Business Exchange, suggested by Robert Stoltz. This topic contains 57 news and 101 blog items. Read updated news, blogs, and resources about Recession Spending and Investing. Find user-submitted articles and comments on Recession Spending and Investing from like-minded professionals.

Go look at the other links here!!!

--

http://www.businessweek.com/

The penny-pinching is already showing up in the numbers; this quarter could mark the first fall in personal consumption in 17 years. And with credit tight and Americans loaded down with $2.6 trillion in personal debt, consumer borrowing dropped in August, the first such contraction since 1991. Menzie D. Chinn, who teaches economics at the University of Wisconsin, figures consumers won't be in a position to spend freely for five years.

Which brings us to what John Maynard Keynes called the paradox of thrift. What's good for the individual, argued the famous economist, can ignite or deepen a recession. But that won't deter the newly thrifty. "I can't help the economy," says Kim Schultz, a resident of hard-hit Avoca, Mich., who with her husband, Jon, owes $40,000 in credit-card debt. "I've got to help myself." On the other hand, this newfound austerity could—emphasis on could—rewire Americans as savers rather than spenders. And that would help put the economy on a sounder footing over the long haul.

Thrift has gone in and out of style since the founding of the republic. In the McGuffey Reader of the 19th century, Benjamin Franklin was held up as a paragon of virtue for his frugal ways. Later, people who lived through the Great Depression were in some cases marked for life by the experience. Typical of them is Bernard Handel, an 82-year-old resident of Poughkeepsie, N.Y., who grew up poor in the Bronx. In the early 1930s, his father's grocery store failed and his dad couldn't find another job for several years. To this day, even though Handel became very wealthy, he shops for food with coupons, drives a Honda, and takes the subway rather than taxis. "I just don't believe in throwing money away," he says.

--

http://www.marketwatch.com/

So what should investors do? Back in June 2005 when first predicted a coming "Global Mega-Meltdown," Aronson anticipated the current meltdown and offered this strategy: "If you have a well-diversified portfolio, cashing out may be costly in the long run: For good reasons and bad, I'd hold tight. The good include my faith in capitalism and its ability to weather a storm, even one of biblical proportions. The bad reason is, I have no faith in my ability to time this sort of thing. Even if I got out in time, I probably wouldn't be able to correctly time getting back in!"

Then, in a lighthearted moment, from a guy who knows that eventually even this market will come back stronger because they always do, he added, "And to paraphrase a colleague, if the world really is coming to an end, then hoard ammo and put aluminum foil on your head! Because it's either the end of the world as we know it or the investment opportunity of the century (with the only competition being the lows of 1932). I chose the latter."

--

http://www.marketwatch.com

2. Buy 'quality' and never sell

Warren Buffett was once asked about his favorite holding period. "Forever," said the Sage of Omaha; the best time to sell is "never!" Index funds are the perfect long-term hold. If you buy quality companies and index funds with proven long-term track records, you won't be tempted to sell when the market dips and talking heads on cable news freak out.

Trust yourself; just do it. Remember, your most important decision is the upfront buy decision: So pick funds and stocks on the assumption you will never sell! One of our Lazy Portfolios was built by a guy who bought the first index fund in 1976 and still has it. If you had invested $10,000 in that fund back then it'd be worth over $200,000 today.

3. No market timing, no active trading

Markets are random and unpredictable says Wharton economist Jeremy Siegel in his classic, "Stocks for The Long-Run." Siegel researched the stock market's 120 biggest up and biggest down days between 1801 and 2001. He concluded that only 25% had any rational explanation.

In an earlier study of 66,400 investors, behavioral finance professors Terry Odean and Brad Barber concluded: "The more you trade the less you earn."

Buy-and-hold investors beat traders by substantial margins. The most active traders turned over their entire portfolios 258% annually, but their after-tax returns were only 11.4%. The reason: Active traders lose large sums paying higher expenses, transaction costs and taxes. In contrast, buy-and-hold investors turned their portfolios over a mere 2% annually, generating 18.5% returns. That's 50% higher.

4. Trust the explosive power of compounding

Albert Einstein put it very simply: "There is no greater power known to man than compounding interest." Compounding is more powerful than nuclear energy.

A 25-year-old can put roughly $3,000 in an IRA every year and with 10% average returns retire a millionaire at 65. A 45-year-old can do it by maxing out a 401(k) with $1,250 a month.

Notice the explosive power: At 65 most of your million-dollar retirement portfolio will be in the growth of your savings. For example, the 25-year-old will have invested only $120,000 over 40 years, the rest is compounded interest and appreciation!

--

http://bx.businessweek.com/

check these links out

--

10/16/2008 10:14 AM

http://www.time.com

Analysts also await Google's third quarter earnings announcement on Thursday as an indicator of how the technology company will be able to grapple with the tough economic climate. Ross Sandler, senior internet analyst at RBC Capital Markets, expects Google's revenue to be up 33.5% over the same time last year with a 3% growth rate from second to third quarter, even though its stock price recently sank to the lowest it has been in two years. "Google is down 25% in the last month or so, but ... there is nothing wrong with Google structurally," says Sandler. "Every company exposed to advertising is having problems because budgets in general are contracting and no one is immune." Still, the Mountain View, Calif., search giant is on everyone's mind. "If I am wrong and Google misses, it will magnify a weakening market," says Jason Avilio, analyst at Kaufman Brothers. "If it does better it will help the market, but I would expect the status quo."

--

http://www.time.com/

Hedge funds typically charge investors 1% of their money each year, as well as a performance fee of 20% of the fund's annual gains. That can be a lot of money. For example, the average hedge fund rose nearly 12% last year. That means someone who invested $1 million — often the minimum — in an average hedge fund last year would have made $120,000 but would have paid back $34,000 in management fees.

Troubles for hedge funds started earlier this year when the stock market began to fall on fears of losses in mortgage-related bonds.

HedgeFund.net estimates that the funds lost $93 billion in the first three months of the year alone. But Gradante says things really unraveled in the past month or so, as investment banks, feeling a capital pinch, started to require that hedge funds pay back their loans. The funds typically borrow money to buy stocks or bet against them in order to increase their returns. Hedge funds were then forced to sell their positions, often at a loss, in order to pay back what was owed. What's more, many investors began getting nervous and pulling their money out of the funds. Those redemptions have forced managers to sell as well.

In order to deal with nervous investors and the unpredictable markets, many hedge funds have recently gotten a lot more conservative. David Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, estimates that hedge funds have moved as much as $400 billion of their assets into cash. Cohen's SAC Capital, which is down 9% this year, has reportedly put half its fund, or $7 billion, in cash. The move to cash makes sense, says Gradante, for the current market. But it may hurt funds over the long haul. "If stocks rebound rapidly, like they did on Monday," says Gradante, "these funds will continue to disappoint investors."

--

http://www.time.com/

In the face of the current economic meltdown, some people have more reason than others to worry — people, for example, who need to spend their savings very soon. For them, fear serves a purpose: it encourages action, which may prevent further losses. But for most of us, what will happen in the stock market in three or 10 or 20 years, when we will most need our savings, is unknowable. We can't predict the financial future, so we shouldn't try. But anxiety doesn't work according to those rules.

Most of all, the amygdala loathes unpredictability of the kind we are currently enduring. Lab experiments with rats and humans show that both species prefer predictable electric shocks over unpredictable shocks. That's because, on a normal day, the brain works by following shortcuts. We recognize patterns in order to make split-second judgments about what we are seeing. Shortcuts are ruthlessly efficient, which is important for an organ that only uses about 40 watts of power per operation. But the more uncertainty we face, the more shortcuts our brains use. And the shortcuts lead to a slew of predictable errors.

Shortcuts, for example, make us more prone to do whatever everyone else is doing — or whatever Jim Cramer tells us to do. "The brain cannot afford to re-evaluate on a millisecond by millisecond basis. So it will use other people's opinion as a proxy for its own," says Emory University neuroeconomist Gregory Berns, author of the new book Iconoclast: A Neuroscientist Reveals How to Think Differently.

To test this herd behavior, Berns and his colleagues hooked 32 people up to brain-imaging equipment and watched them reckon with a group opinion (about whether two shapes were the same or different) that was clearly false. They found that the brain worked to integrate the false opinion into its perception of the world. In other words, if other people start selling a stock you thought was valuable, you may want to do the same — at first.

In a state of high uncertainty, the brain wants most of all to do something — anything. "The natural urge, when we hurt, is to pull away," says John Forsyth, an associate psychology professor in the Anxiety Disorders Research Program at the University at Albany, SUNY. Unfortunately, doing something — like selling stock or drinking heavily at the office — can make things dramatically worse.

It may also help to consider what you will do if you do lose everything. Literally, what will you do first, second and third? Contemplating action can shrink the threat to life size and introduce new possibilities. "We become very attached to our mentally constructed future," says Forsyth. "The harder you hold on to your story about your future, the harder this will be."

--

10/17/2008 9:57 AM

http://www.breitbart.com/

Future planes, cars may be made of `buckypaper'

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) - It's called "buckypaper" and looks a lot like ordinary carbon paper, but don't be fooled by the cute name or flimsy appearance. It could revolutionize the way everything from airplanes to TVs are made.

Buckypaper is 10 times lighter but potentially 500 times stronger than steel when sheets of it are stacked and pressed together to form a composite. Unlike conventional composite materials, though, it conducts electricity like copper or silicon and disperses heat like steel or brass.

"All those things are what a lot of people in nanotechnology have been working toward as sort of Holy Grails," said Wade Adams, a scientist at Rice University.

That idea—that there is great future promise for buckypaper and other derivatives of the ultra-tiny cylinders known as carbon nanotubes—has been floated for years now. However, researchers at Florida State University say they have made important progress that may soon turn hype into reality.

Buckypaper is made from tube-shaped carbon molecules 50,000 times thinner than a human hair. Due to its unique properties, it is envisioned as a wondrous new material for light, energy-efficient aircraft and automobiles, more powerful computers, improved TV screens and many other products.

So far, buckypaper can be made at only a fraction of its potential strength, in small quantities and at a high price. The Florida State researchers are developing manufacturing techniques that soon may make it competitive with the best composite materials now available.

"If this thing goes into production, this very well could be a very, very game-changing or revolutionary technology to the aerospace business," said Les Kramer, chief technologist for Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, which is helping fund the Florida State research.

The scientific discovery that led to buckypaper virtually came from outer space.

In 1985, British scientist Harry Kroto joined researchers at Rice for an experiment to create the same conditions that exist in a star. They wanted to find out how stars, the source of all carbon in the universe, make the element that is a main building block of life.

Everything went as planned with one exception.

"There was an extra character that turned up totally unexpected," recalled Kroto, now at Florida State heading a program that encourages the study of math, science and technology in public schools. "It was a discovery out of left field."

The surprise guest was a molecule with 60 carbon atoms shaped like a soccer ball. To Kroto, it also looked like the geodesic domes promoted by Buckminster Fuller, an architect, inventor and futurist. That inspired Kroto to name the new molecule buckminsterfullerene, or "buckyballs" for short.

For their discovery of the buckyball—the third form of pure carbon to be discovered after graphite and diamonds—Kroto and his Rice colleagues, Robert Curl Jr. and Richard E. Smalley, were awarded the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 1996.

Separately, Japanese physicist Sumio Iijima developed a tube-shaped variation while doing research at Arizona State University.

Researchers at Smalley's laboratory then inadvertently found that the tubes would stick together when disbursed in a liquid suspension and filtered through a fine mesh, producing a thin film—buckypaper.

The secret of its strength is the huge surface area of each nanotube, said Ben Wang, director of Florida State's High-Performance Materials Institute.

"If you take a gram of nanotubes, just one gram, and if you unfold every tube into a graphite sheet, you can cover about two-thirds of a football field," Wang said.

Carbon nanotubes are already beginning to be used to strengthen tennis rackets and bicycles, but in small amounts. The epoxy resins used in those applications are 1 to 5 percent carbon nanotubes, which are added in the form of a fine powder. Buckypaper, which is a thin film rather than a powder, has a much higher nanotube content—about 50 percent.

One challenge is that the tubes clump together at odd angles, limiting their strength in buckypaper. Wang and his fellow researchers found a solution: Exposing the tubes to high magnetism causes most of them to line up in the same direction, increasing their collective strength.

Another problem is the tubes are so perfectly smooth it's hard to hold them together with epoxy. Researchers are looking for ways to create some surface defects—but not too many—to improve bonding.

So far, the Florida State institute has been able to produce buckypaper with half the strength of the best existing composite material, known as IM7. Wang expects to close the gap quickly.

"By the end of next year we should have a buckypaper composite as strong as IM7, and it's 35 percent lighter," Wang said.

Buckypaper now is being made only in the laboratory, but Florida State is in the early stages of spinning out a company to make commercial buckypaper.

"These guys have actually demonstrated materials that are capable of being used on flying systems," said Adams, director of Rice's Richard E. Smalley Institute for Nanoscale Science and Technology. "Having something that you can hold in your hand is an accomplishment in nanotechnology."

It takes upward of five years to get a new structural material certified for aviation use, so Wang said he expects buckypaper's first uses will be for electromagnetic interference shielding and lightning-strike protection on aircraft.

Electrical circuits and even natural causes such as the sun or Northern Lights can interfere with radios and other electronic gear. Buckypaper provides up to four times the shielding specified in a recent Air Force contract proposal, Wang said.

Typically, conventional composite materials have a copper mesh added for lightning protection. Replacing copper with buckypaper would save weight and fuel.

Wang demonstrated this with a composite model plane and a stun gun. Zapping an unprotected part of the model caused sparks to fly. The electric jolt, though, passed harmlessly across another section shielded by a strip of buckypaper.

Other near-term uses would be as electrodes for fuel cells, super capacitors and batteries, Wang said. Next in line, buckypaper could be a more efficient and lighter replacement for graphite sheets used in laptop computers to dissipate heat, which is harmful to electronics.

The long-range goal is to build planes, automobiles and other things with buckypaper composites. The military also is looking at it for use in armor plating and stealth technology.

"Our plan is perhaps in the next 12 months we'll begin maybe to have some commercial products," Wang said. "Nanotubes obviously are no longer just lab wonders. They have real world potential. It's real."

--

http://news.briefing.com/

Buffett Says He Is Buying U.S. Stocks

Buffett's reason for buying stocks is due to his long-standing philosophy: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."  Buffett believes fear is currently widespread, and if stock prices keep looking attractive, he will eventual commit all of his non-Berkshire net worth to U.S. stocks.

Buffett does not try to pretend he knows where the market is going in the near term, but he believes most major companies "will be setting new profit records, 5, 10 and 20 years from now."  He goes on to explain how the market has rebounded from crises in the past, and the time to buy was before sentiment and the economy improve.

Investors should not be comfortable in cash, Buffett said, claiming that it is a terrible investment that pays virtually nothing.

There is good reason to listen to Buffett; just look at his great track record.  Shares of Berkshire have returned an annual rate of 19.5% since the end of 1987 at last week's closing level.  The S&P 500, however, has returned 10.5% during that time, with dividends reinvested.  In other words, $100 invested in Berkshire at the end of 1987 would be worth $4,112.73, compared to $751.50 in the S&P 500.

Buffett's Berkshire has been making large purchases lately in an effort capitalize on fear -- scooping up Constellation Energy (CEG 24.66, +0.33) on the cheap, and getting great deals to buy a $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs (GS 112.40, 0.00) and a $10 billion stake in General Electric (GE 19.68, -0.21).

--

http://www.businessweek.com

Polemeni's interest rate jumped to 30% after a missed payment John Chiasson

THE BIG BOYS' BURDEN

Making matters worse, the subprime threat is also greater in credit-card land. Risky borrowers with low credit scores account for roughly 30% of outstanding credit-card debt, compared with 11% of mortgage debt. More than 45% of Washington Mutual's credit-card portfolio is subprime, according to Innovest. That could become a headache for JPMorgan Chase, which agreed on Sept. 25 to buy the troubled thrift's credit-card business and other assets for $1.9 billion. Says a JPMorgan spokeswoman: "

Credit-card losses are already taking a bite out of lenders' balance sheets. Bank of America, the nation's second-largest issuer behind JPMorgan, revealed on Oct. 6 that roughly $3 billion of its $184 billion credit-card portfolio has soured, a 50% increase from a year ago. At the same time the bank, which is also dealing with the broader financial tumult, said it would have to cut its dividend by 50% and raise $10 billion in fresh capital. The stock stumbled more than 25% the next day when investors largely scoffed at the new shares BofA was offering. "The good news for us is that we have the strength to get through this, but the bad news is that the earnings recovery does take a while," says BofA spokesman Bob Stickler. "We are prudently adjusting our underwriting standards to adapt to changing economic conditions."

To get ahead of rules that would hamper their ability to reprice accounts, for example, many firms are jacking up interest rates. A survey of major issuers by consumer advocacy group Consumer Action found that 37% of firms have raised rates across the board, even for borrowers with relatively pristine credit records. "In anticipation of a federal crackdown, card companies are scouring their portfolios and tightening credit," says Tower Group's Moroney.

Even consumers like Michael Polemeni, who miss only a single payment, can find themselves in the crosshairs of credit-card companies. The independent computer specialist relied heavily on his credit cards for child support payments and business expenses. Polemeni generally made more than the minimum payment each month, carrying a $2,000-or-so balance. But in July he missed a payment, and Providian, owned by Washington Mutual, jacked up his rate from 9% to 30%. "I was shocked because I am a very good customer," say Polemeni, who paid off the full balance immediately. WaMu didn't return calls for comment.

Not everyone will be able to pay down their debts like Polemeni. And that could make for a vicious cycle: As credit-card companies raise rates, more consumers fall behind on their payments, which then hurts the issuers. Says Innovest's Larkin: "We are going to see the banks massively hit."

http://online.wsj.com/

During last week's stock selloff, the market tumbled during the last hour of trading nearly every day. But on Monday, stocks soared at the end of the day. Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of stock trading at Themis Trading, says some investors watched the market rise all day, hoping for a decline so they could buy in more cheaply. But when that never happened, they feared missing out on the big rally and rushed to buy stocks.

The big winners on Monday were stocks tied to economic growth, which suggests that investors believe any recession will be relatively short. Energy companies were up 16%, basic-materials stocks such as mining companies were up 14%, and technology stocks were up nearly 12%. Industrial commodities, which had been suffering amid recession worries, staged a comeback. Copper futures jumped 8% in New York, the biggest percentage gain since 2006. Copper futures remained 43% below their July record, however.

Crude-oil futures jumped 4.5% to $81.19 a barrel, as gasoline, heating oil and natural gas futures also rose. Oil futures remained down 44% from their July record.

Gold futures, a place of refuge lately, fell, but not heavily, reflecting uncertainty about how long the rebound would last. They were down 1.9% to $838.90 an ounce.

"When all the fixed-income people come back and play, we'll see if we can maintain the rally," says Jason Weisberg, a trader with Seaport Securities.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/

``This is a good day to buy,'' said Louis Navellier, who oversees $4.3 billion as chief executive officer of Navellier & Associates in West Palm Beach, Florida. ``I'm very, very comfortable we're at or near the bottom here.''

The MSCI World Index is poised for its worst annual performance ever after plunging 39 percent this year on concern frozen credit markets will trigger a recession. The decline in equities from Hong Kong to Lima erased about $28 trillion in value from the world's stock markets. Financial firms have reported $635 billion in losses and writedowns from mortgage- related investments since the beginning of last year.

``We were on the brink of an implosion,'' said Jacques- Antoine Bretteil, who manages about $312 million at International Capital Gestion in Paris. ``We've avoided the worst, but that doesn't mean all of the problems are over.''

Exxon Mobil Corp. increased 6.9 percent to $66.64. The world's largest oil company was raised to ``buy'' from ``neutral'' at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil producer, gained 7.7 percent to 25.84 reais for the steepest gain in three weeks.

Apple Inc. rose 8.7 percent to $105.46. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Toni Sacconaghi upgraded the maker of Macintosh computers and the iPhone to ``outperform'' from ``market perform,'' saying the shares are ``overly discounted'' after plunging 46 percent in two months.

--

http://biz.yahoo.com/

Dow jumps 936 as governments pledge bank aid
Monday October 13, 4:22 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Dow soars 936 after major governments pledge to support the global banking system

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street stormed back from last week's devastating losses Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrials soaring a nearly inconceivable 936 points after major governments' plans to support the global banking system reassured distraught investors. All the major indexes rose more than 11 percent.

The market was likely to rebound after eight days of precipitous losses that took the Dow down nearly 2,400 points, but no one expected this kind of advance, which saw the Dow by far outstrip its previous record for a one-day point gain, 499.19, set during the waning days of the dot-com boom.

Still, while the magnitude of Monday's gains stunned investors and analysts, no one was ready to say Wall Street had reached a bottom. The market is likely to have back-and-forth trading in the coming days and weeks -- and may well see a pullback when trading resumes Tuesday -- as investors work through their concerns about the banking sector, the stagnant credit markets and the overall economy.

Jim King, chief investment officer at National Penn Investors Trust Co., said the fear that took hold of the markets last week was overwrought and could signal that a bottom is near. When selling turns so frenetic that it hits a broad swath of stocks indiscriminately, as it did last week, many market watchers say a market low is at hand. That creates opporunity, King noted.

"We have exceptional companies at fire sale prices," he said.

Still, King cautioned that any market rebound likely will be choppy.

"Even if this is the beginning of a recovery we're not just going to have up markets from here on in," he said. "We're not through the woods. We think there is collateral damage from this debacle." King pointed to an increase in unemployment and nervousness among consumers that could, for example, hurt retailers and in turn, take stocks lower.

--

http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Venezuela's oil output slumps under Hugo Chavez

Venezuela's daily oil production has fallen by a quarter since President Hugo Chavez won power, depriving his "Bolivarian Revolution" of much of the benefit of the global boom in oil prices.

To win allies and forge an anti-American front, Mr Chavez sells oil to friendly countries at low prices. Ironically, the only big customer buying Venezuelan oil at the full market price is the United States, which the president routinely denounces as the "Empire".

"As production falls, the sales to the US become more important," said Pietro Donatello, an oil analyst from Latin Petroleum in the capital, Caracas. "Only the US is paying the full amount for Venezuelan oil and in cash, the rest are in some kind of barter agreements."

The state oil company, PDVSA, produced 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998, the year before Mr Chavez won the presidency. After a decade of rising corruption and inefficiency, daily output has now fallen to 2.4 million barrels, according to OPEC figures. About half of this oil is now delivered at a discount to Mr Chavez's friends around Latin America. The 18 nations in his "Petrocaribe" club, founded in 2005, pay Venezuela only 30 per cent of the market price within 90 days, with rest in instalments spread over 25 years.

The other half - 1.2 million barrels per day - goes to America, Venezuela's only genuinely paying customer.

Meanwhile, Mr Chavez has given PDVSA countless new tasks. "The new PDVSA is central to the social battle for the advance of our country," said Rafael Ramirez, the company's president and the minister for petroleum. "We have worked to convert PDVSA into a key element for the social battle."

The company now grows food after Mr Chavez's price controls emptied supermarket shelves of products like milk and eggs. Another branch produces furniture and domestic appliances in an effort to stem the flow of imports. What PDVSA seems unable to do is produce more oil.

Venezuela has proven reserves of 80 billion barrels, but estimates suggest that it may possess 142 billion barrels - more than anywhere else except Saudi Arabia. But the crude is of low quality and must be upgraded before it can be shipped. There are only three upgrade units currently operating, processing only 600,000 barrels per day.

"There is a bottleneck in the Venezuelan production system," said Mazhar al-Sheridah, 68, an oil expert at the Central University of Venezuela. "It will cost at least $32 billion to build another three upgrading units and take some five years, meaning that Venezuelan production is stuck at current levels for a while yet."

All this means that Venezuela has missed much of the benefit from the oil boom and, now that prices are falling, Mr Chavez faces huge financial problems. Nobody is sure at what point his government would be unable to pay its bills, but most sources consulted believe this would probably happen if oil falls to $80 a barrel. Yesterday, oil was trading at $79.80.

--

http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Even the incorrigible optimists’ party, of which I count myself a gold cardholder, has had to adjust the upswing of its expectation curve a long way to the right on the graph – by which I mean that any return to economic normality is now likely to be not 18 months but several harsh years away, well into the first term of a Cameron government.

Whether you choose to look at economic growth, employment patterns, bankruptcies, repossessions, mortgage lending, car sales, retail activity or consumer confidence, then I suggest that for 2010 you read 2012 at the earliest, and several years after that for a recovery in house prices.

As an easily recognised marker, let me predict that the time and place where national morale finally perks up will be the opening ceremony of the London Olympics – 1,383 days away.

It seems an awfully long time away – but am I being too optimistic? Let me suggest not.

My timetable would correspond roughly to what happened in the last recession and property crash. Back in 1990, the moment the economy went haywire – at the end of an unsustainable property boom and a bout of City excess – can be pinpointed with hindsight to October 8, the day Britain joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

The first hints of incipient recovery came as soon as we left the ERM in September 1992, and by August 1994 I was able to write an essay in The Spectator entitled ''We really haven’t ever had it so good’’, pointing out all sorts of favourable post-recession economic and social changes that were passing un-noticed in the general mood of dissatisfaction with the Conservative government; rather less presciently, I was also writing about how the flattened property market might never boom again – but of course it did so, in spades.

Aha, the gloom merchants will mutter, there he goes again, making the same fundamental error that so many people in the financial world have made in recent years, which is to assume that the future will be like the past.

The only investors who have ridden out this crisis are, after all, those like George Soros who believe uncertainty is the key, not those who believe in the mathematics of probability.

Perhaps so, but our entire understanding of the “dismal science” of economics is based on the concept of cycles, large and small. We are thundering towards the bottom of a very large cycle – but we are not going to stick there forever, in some bankrupt, barter-driven economic ghost-town. The wheel must turn again, however slowly.

There are those who will argue, though, that the new long-term cycle will be very different. It will be an era of much heavier regulation, combined with the kind of ''every nation for itself’’ protectionist instincts we have seen in relation to depositors’ money in the past few days.

That means the future will not resemble the immediate past of our own working lifetimes – the age of increasing free-market dominance – but rather the 1930s to the beginning of the 1980s, with slower growth, much tighter state control and more limited global trade.

For a start, if our high street banks survive the crash only by taking in new equity capital from the state – even if that doesn’t quite count as nationalisation – they will be subject to ferocious new scrutiny.

Expect mortgages to be limited to modest multiples of borrowers’ salaries, which will have to be independently certified, and to sensible percentages of property values. Expect credit card limits to become much tighter. Fancy off-balance sheet accounting structures will be all but outlawed.

International rules on capital adequacy will be rewritten to discourage banks from accumulating the most dangerous categories of assets and leveraging themselves to perdition. A particularly heavy regulatory hand will fall on those that combine retail deposit-taking with high-risk investment banking and trading activities – though it is hard to see how they can be completely separated again, as they were in America by the New Deal-era Glass Steagall Act.

Whether the City’s grotesque bonus culture can be crushed remains to be seen, but remuneration levels will fall and whenever a big bonus is paid, politicians and tabloids will howl their outrage.

The experience of visiting a bank manager to ask for a loan for your small business or house extension will be more like it was in the mid-1960s than the mid-1980s or 2000s. The Financial Services Authority and, we must hope, a reinvigorated Bank of England will be great powers, by comparison with diminished faith in markets and diminished authority of politicians. Recovery from recession will necessarily be slower and more painful as a result.

The new era may last a decade or several. But for better or worse, risk and innovation are not going to be killed off. They are in the genes of today’s younger generation, much more so than in those of the post-second world war generation.

A positive side effect of job losses and pay squeezes in the financial sector will be to drive bright people into the wider economy – even perhaps to work in technology and bioscience businesses, and contribute to a rebuilding of what’s left of British manufacturing.

It may be hard to see today’s mayhem as what Joseph Schumpeter called the ''creative destruction’’ of capitalism – all we can see is destruction – but creativity will come through again as small, new businesses replace old ones that have failed to survive the storms.

There will be fascinating opportunities in venture capital, and the kind of management buy-outs that don’t depend too heavily on debt. Even the swathe of abandoned city-centre buy-to-let development sites will eventually be taken up, in a newly affordable housing market.

After Friday’s stock market crash, we can only wait with trepidation to see whether co-ordinated government responses around the world can begin to restore calm. Even optimists like me are finding it hard to hang on to hope. But hang on we must: start counting the days to recovery.

--

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/

The Bombay Sensex has almost halved in value from a peak of 21,206 on 10th January 2008 to 10,239 last Friday, as many of those hot-money Foreign Investors pull out of a risky market - more than USD 10bn left India in the first nine months of this year, putting a serious squeeze on capital markets.

Again, personal experience of Indian consumer credit policies - bailing out my staff members who'd been allowed to rack up ridiculous debts on credit cards etc. with interest-free consolidation loans - had always made me nervous about how durable India's consumer services boom really was.

In other sectors, the numbers are scary. Provisional figures for six core infrastructure Industries - crude, petroleum refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished (carbon) steel - show growth halving to 3.4 per cent in April-August from 7.1 per cent in the same period last year.

India, according to one senior government economic adviser, M. Govind Rao, is now in an industrial recession.

I know several economically literate people who were always skeptical that the Indian growth story would really be resilient to the kind external shocks we have seen over the last month, but there were plenty of others who were blinded by the kind of razzle-dazzle account of corporate India that filled the pages of the Economic Times.

Regular readers of this blog will know that, while always bowing to superior economic knowledge, your correspondent always had trouble marrying the rhetoric with the reality all around.

Could the story really be as glossy as advertised when Mumbai, India's commercial capital, didn't have the political will to generate enough electricity to keep the neon lights of its hoardings on during the summer months?

What does it say about the Indian property market relative to international values, when a flat in Delhi's satellite town, Gurgaon was selling at more than a million dollars, when the city could barely provide roads, power and water?

Could India really be creating a modern workforce economy when teacher absenteeism was at the same level as Uganda's? On and on the list of nagging worries went.

--

http://money.cnn.com/

50 years of market swings

Needs IE

--

http://www.washingtonpost.com/

Google Employees Watch In Horror As 60 Percent Of Their Stock Options Drown

The entire stock market is taking another drubbing today, and Google is no exception. Its shares tried to rally in the morning, but are now trading below the $329 they closed at yesterday. That's a key price level Google employees are watching because a huge chunk of their options (1.7 million across the company) were granted with a weighted average exercise price of $329.78. The options are worthless under that price. In addition to that, there are another 5.7 million options that were granted at weighted average exercise prices of $450 and above. (see table below). All told, 61 percent of Google's stock options granted to employees are currently under water.

The rest of Google's stock options become worthless at the average exercise prices of $275, $177, and $21 (for pre-IPO employees, who don't have much to worry about). All of these numbers com from Google's second quarter 10-Q and don't reflect any options that may have been granted in the third quarter. (Google's third-quarter earnings announcement is next week).

Only eight days ago Google's shares were trading at $411 and three months ago they were above $450. In that time, a lot of paper wealth has disappeared and along with it incentive for many recent hires to stay. Of course, the stock could rally and everything will be honky dory again, but if Google's market cap is being fundamentally reset along with the rest of the stock market, it could face some serious retention issues in the coming months. The free food and transportation are great perks and all, but let's get real here. Without the financial upside those stock options represent, Google employees will start looking elsewhere.

It is a danger if the stock does not recover. On the other hand, if the economy truly is spiraling into a recession and capital is drying up for new startups, frustrated Google employees might not have anywhere else to go.

Update: How many Google employees are completely underwater with their options? As I understand it, Google grants stock options to employees during the week they are hired. The last time the stock was this low was almost exactly three years ago. So anyone hired since October, 2005 is pretty much under water. That is 75 percent of all current employees (Google had 5,000 employees three years ago, and now has about 20,000).

Update 2: Google shares rallied a bit at the end of the trading day, closing at $332, just above the watermark for some of those options. Next week is earnings. Will it bring another plunge or a rebound?

--

10/13/2008 10:54 PM

http://www.businessweek.com/

The idea of scenario forecasts using group intelligence was created by Robin Hanson of George Mason University, who has noted public policy often fails because it is created by an "insider's club of pundits and academics." The trouble with humans, it seems, is that even when we're smart, we have access to imperfect information and follow the groupthink of our peers. Because we often disagree with other groups, we band together and end up agreeing too much with our own teams. No single leader can overcome such biases and data gaps to predict with certainty whether an action will succeed or fail. But Hanson suggests markets can do just that.

--

http://www.marketwatch.com

There are a number of reasons for Monday's surge starting with the proverbial "dead cat bounce." Stocks had plunged so much in such a short period of time that some bounce upward was inevitable.

Another reason had to do with capitulation. Time and again, when everyone throws in the towel after a prolonged decline, there is a selling climax, which invariably turns out to be the bottom for stocks in that cycle.

And guess who sold at this low point? That's right, the small investor who turns paper losses into actual losses. And the saddest part of this is that many folks sold stocks that were in their 401k plans, meaning that they just lost a big chunk of the money that they were planning to retire on.

On a more positive note, the levels to which stock prices were driven encouraged bargain hunters to emerge from their foxholes. Many well-known stocks with long track records of paying dividends were selling at multi-decade lows by close of business Friday.

Indeed, while the stock market has provided all of the fireworks of late, it is really a sideshow to the frozen credit markets, which clearly is the main event.

But sometimes it pays to look before you leap. The Dow is still nearly 4,800 points below its all-time high set just over a year ago. And the U.S. economy is in a recession.

10/13/2008 1:22 PM

http://www.nanson.ch/features/2005/gale.html

Gale GS401A Part 1
Gale GS401A Part 2

Since I was 15 years old I loved these speakers, it wasn't just that they were (by a gulf) the best looking speakers you could buy, but there was virtually nothing that sounded so good too. I remember them costing around Ł600 a pair in the late 1970's - so what's that - ~Ł5,000 today? There was also a more 'aesthetically sedate' version with the normal vertical orientation and, if I remember correctly, walnut veneer cabinets, the GS401C.

I can affirm these are the sweetest loudspeakers you will ever hear.  I used to have a pair.  The only problem I have with them is that they make everything sound TOO GOOD.  They are no good for monitoring and mastering original music, because they make everything sound better than it really is.  hg47

http://money.cnn.com

9 tips to tough out the times

http://money.cnn.com/

The Dow swung over 1000 points

between its low and high Friday - the first

time ever in its 112-year history.

Wall Street was last in a bear market between 2000 and 2002 amid the end of the tech bubble, a recession and the terrorist attacks on 9/11. But stocks bottomed in October 2002 and then again in March 2003, leading to a more than four-year bull market.

On Friday, the three major stock gauges fell to within shouting distance of that March 2003 bottom. Some market pros are wondering if that 2003 level could turn out to be the bottom for the 2008 bear market also. (Full story)

However, bottoms are often "retested," meaning stocks fall to a low, bounce for a few days or even months, then fall back to right around that low, before making a bigger, more sustained advance off the low.

That's what happened in the last bear market. Stocks bottomed in early October 2002, bounced a little bit in the lead up to the start of the Iraq war and then retested those lows in March of 2003 before moving higher.

Either way, the analysts spoken with agree that when the market does finally put a bottom in place, it will lead to an extensive rally.

http://www.nypost.com/

DON'T LOOK DOW(N)

MAY DROP 50% FROM TOP

Market experts say stocks could continue falling until they've lost half the value from their peak in last year's bubble heyday - meaning the bottom might be a Dow Jones industrial average at 7,000.

A new economic report yesterday supported such a steep downward spiral by showing a sudden slowdown could hit by Thanksgiving, based on an unexpected doubling of wholesale stockpiles of everything from petroleum and clothing to electronics and cars.

A Commerce Department report said wholesalers had so much excess inventory on hand in August that they likely wouldn't need to order goods for more than a month.

In turn, that would trigger factory cutbacks, layoffs and slower consumer spending as the economy faces a harsh round of deflation in a prolonged bear market of shrinking growth.

While bear markets are officially triggered by a 20 percent drop, at their worst, they can have a sell-off of 45 percent to 50 percent.

Since the Dow's record close above 14,000 a year ago yesterday, the Dow has tumbled 5,585.34 points - or almost 40 percent.

Surveys of economists say the economy's slowdown will be nearly three times worse by the end of the year.

The economy's pace will shrink at a 0.2 percent rate in the third quarter, but sharply accelerate to 0.8 percent by Christmas.

Stocks took the brunt of the slowdown fear due to weaker corporate profits ahead and frozen credit markets.

It was the seventh straight session of losses as investors bailed from the market in droves, despite new efforts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to goose the stalled economy with hundreds of billions in cash.

"We're way beyond fundamentals. This is just pure panic, that's all it is," said Chris Orndorff, head of equity strategy at Payden & Rygel.

The Dow dropped 678.91, or 7.33 percent, to 8,579.19, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 75.02 , or 7.62 percent, to 909.92. The Nasdaq tumbled 95.21, or 5.47 percent, to 1,645.12.

Some value investors noted that that the market is so oversold that incredible values may pave the way for a turnaround. However, the fear that hedge funds are being forced to sell to meet redemptions continued to fan fears that more selling could be around the corner.

Meanwhile, the four-week average of new unemployment claims rose to 482,500, the highest since October 2001. The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 3.66 million, above analysts' estimates of 3.6 million. That's the highest total in more than five years.

--

10/10/2008 8:31 PM

http://biz.yahoo.com/

The Dow lost 128 points, giving the blue chips an eight-day loss of just under 2,400, or 22.1 percent. The average had its worst week on record in both point and percentage terms. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the indicator most watched by market professionals, posted its worst weekly run since 1933.

The latest loss also means the Dow is down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high close of 14,164.53 a year ago, on Oct. 9, 2007. The S&P 500, which reached its high of 1,565.15 the same day, is down 42.5 percent.

Investors suffered a paper loss for the day of about $100 billion, as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index. For the week, investors lost $2.4 trillion, and over the past year, the losses have piled up to $8.4 trillion.

But there were signs Friday that some investors believe the market is near a bottom. On Thursday, selling accelerated in the last hour of trading. The Dow was down 221 points at 3 p.m. but closed down 679 points an hour later. On Friday, the Dow was down 468 points at 3 but rocketed 790 points and was up 322 points just after 3:30. It then sold off but closed down only 128.

And the Russell 2000 index, which tracks the movements of smaller company stocks, had a 4.66 percent gain Friday; small-cap stocks are often first on investors' shopping lists when they think a market turnaround is at hand.

"Nobody wants to miss the bottom," said Anton Schutz, president of Mendon Capital Advisors, who said of the Dow's performance, "I view it as a victory that we only finished down 100."

The major indexes' sharp swings Friday were likely exacerbated by the computer-driven "buy" and "sell" orders that kicked in when prices fell far enough.

-- 

10/11/2008 2:51 PM

http://news.yahoo.com

How safe is your city? Put it to the bicycle test

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - How long will an unchained bicycle last on a city street before someone steals it?

Using hidden cameras and cheap bicycles as bait, an Argentine publicist set out to gauge crime in different neighborhoods of Buenos Aires. The longer it takes for the bike to be stolen the safer the area, is his hypothesis.

"It's not a statistic but in a way it shows that the places where the bicycle gets robbed really quickly perhaps the quality of life is poorer," said Mariano Pasik, 37.

Pasik speeds up the videos, sets them to music and puts them on a website (http://www.lapruebadelabicleta.com). He hopes other videographers will join his nonprofit "Bicycle Test" project and create a worldwide insecurity index.

It could become an informal crime gauge akin to the "Big Mac Index," which compares the cost of the same McDonald's sandwich in different countries to give an idea of buying power of people in different places, Pasik said.

Pasik, who runs his own publicity firm Liebre Amotinada Ideas (Mutinous Hare Ideas), said the project is part art, part reality show, part journalism and part fun.

But it is definitely not vigilantism. Pasik blurs the thieves' faces and was shocked at comments on his website where people have called for the death penalty for thieves.

"What you see on the videos is that they aren't professional thieves, they aren't people who went out to rob. They are people who ran into temptation and decided to commit a crime, they become thieves at the moment they take the bike," he said.

He said he is also trying to show that the media fascination with crime, in places like Buenos Aires where armed robberies are rampant, is part of the problem.

"The popular fantasy is that the bike will be stolen in seconds, and it isn't quite like that," Pasik said.

In the latest video posted, a bike lasted an hour without being stolen in the unsavory Constitucion neighborhood. But on the upscale shopping street of Santa Fe, a bike lasted a few short minutes before it was stolen.

A neighborhood "passes" the bicycle test when an hour passes or when the filmer gets tired or runs out of batteries.

Fans of the site have offered Pasik free bicycles and sent in their own tests from Uruguay and Spain.

On the videos, the thieves often seem more like opportunists than hardened criminals.

"You see the person thinking and thinking and thinking, coming and going. Sometimes they talk by phone. They go away. They come back. It's more about an internal dilemma between good and bad, than about the bicycle itself," Pasik said.

Or maybe they are just in shock to see a bicycle alone without a heavy lock, an unusual sight in Buenos Aires, a dense metropolis of more than 13 million people.

So far in the Bicycle Test, no woman has stolen a bike.

--

http://news.yahoo.com

Angry about economy? Smash some plates and move on

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) - All over sunny San Diego, tough economic times have forced people to cut back on their $4 lattes and sushi dinners.

But one new business is booming -- and ka-booming -- precisely because of frustration from the worst financial crisis to hit the United States in decades.

Welcome to Sarah's Smash Shack, where pent-up patrons can relieve stress by hurling dinnerware and bric-a-brac against a wall, as hard as they can, day and night, seven days a week.

San Diego entrepreneur Sarah Lavely charges her clients $10 and up to pulverize plates and glasses during 15-minute intervals. Music blares, clients dress in protective gear and a neon sign urges them to "Break More Stuff."

Lavely refuses to discuss her clients' problems in detail, but says that maybe they're "under financial strain, maybe they're stuck in a job they can't leave."

Insurance broker Adam DeWitt came with his wife for his birthday and took out their anger about not being able to buy a first home because the banks have frozen lending.

"It was the best $50 we've spent in the last two years, better than filling up your tank with gas, better than paying interest on your credit card," said DeWitt, 29.

San Diego may boast surf and sunshine year round, but it also has its share of black economic clouds. Its real estate market has been hit hard by the high rate of foreclosures in California, the second highest in the nation, and its unemployment rate has risen to 6.4 percent from 4.8 percent in a year.

'NO REMORSE'

The Shack won't let patrons drown in their sorrows -- neither drinks nor food are served. On the "menu" there are delectable glass and ceramic breakables, neatly arranged on shelves, ready to be obliterated in one of several "break rooms" outfitted with checkerboard tiles and slabs of dented steel bolted to a far wall.

One of the most popular items, "The Smash Shack House Special," mimics a rowdy Greek supper club, where diners smash plates when they enjoy the entertainment. The Smash Shack version features 15 plates for 15 minutes for $45.

The advantage to the plates, Lavely said, is that clients can write nasty little epithets on each one in a thick black marker before hurling. Guests also favor highly breakable frames (3 for $10) into which they slip photos of enemies.

The DeWitts plugged in some music by Guns n Roses, scribbled the names of banks and politicians they don't like on plates and smashed away.

"Oh boy, we smashed some plates, a couple of TV trays, some cups and mugs. My wife smashed some glass flowers," said DeWitt.

"You get mad and do something to your own stuff at home and you think to yourself, 'God, that was stupid.' But there you get a pure rush of picking up something and watching it smash and you have no remorse afterward."

--

10/12/2008 9:01 PM

http://ap.google.com/

The Dow had its worst week in both point and percentage terms and is down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high close of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007. In the last eight trading days alone, the blue chip index has lost a staggering 22.1 percent of its value.

Added up, the value of U.S. stocks has tumbled a breathtaking $8.4 trillion in the past year, as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index.

"These are all indicators of a bottoming process," said David Kotok, said chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors. "When you see this array of signs at these levels, three to six months later there was a rally under way. I am becoming very bullish strategically because I don't think we're going to have an inflationary Great Depression repeat."

But other experts are less optimistic and say history isn't a very good guide for the current crisis. In the crash of 1987, for instance, the markets absorbed the devastating losses over two days and then began to stabilize. This crisis, however, has played out over several weeks, with each record drop in the Dow seemingly trumping the last.

Steven Goldman, chief market strategist for Weeden & Co., said the gauges he uses to determine a bottom simply can't be applied these days. Watching indicators such as the financial sector's performance, employment numbers, earnings reports or inflation data simply doesn't work amid the chaos coursing through the markets.

"I have hundreds of indicators that I follow, and we're in an environment where standard indicators tested throughout history should not be applied," he said. "We've never seen this kind of volatility, these kinds of declines, and its a market not to be a hero in."

--

10/10/2008 4:15 AM

http://www.marketwatch.com/

The benchmark took home a weekly loss of 24%, while more than $650 billion of wealth was wiped off during this period in Tokyo - Asia's largest stock market by capitalization - according to FactSet Research data.

At their lowest levels during the session, the Nikkei tumbled as much as 11.4% in Tokyo, the Hang Seng Index lost 9.7% in Hong Kong, the Kospi index shed 9% in Seoul and India's Sensex slumped 9.6%, although they ended modestly above than the day's lows.

"We have a complete market disarray, where valuations aren't even appropriate to mention," said Benjamin Collett, head of hedge-fund sales trading at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

"We've had a cascading series of events which have served to force equity holders to offload shares under a massive amount of distress," he said. "That means that they are selling at 15 to 30 cents on the dollar and there is no risk appetite or funding to allow someone to catch this drop."

"I think people are trying to liquidate positions, but there just aren't any buyers there. It's the nature of the markets that there are very few people willing to buy stocks," said Andrew Sullivan, a sales trader at Main First Securities. "A lot of people sitting on cash are happy to be sitting on cash at the moment."

10/8/2008 9:47 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/

REYKJAVIK, Iceland -- This volcanic island near the Arctic Circle is on the brink of becoming the first "national bankruptcy" of the global financial meltdown.

Home to just 320,000 people on a territory the size of Kentucky, Iceland has formidable international reach because of an outsized banking sector that set out with Viking confidence to conquer swaths of the British economy _ from fashion retailers to top soccer teams.

The strategy gave Icelanders one of the world's highest per capita incomes. But now they are watching helplessly as their economy implodes _ their currency losing almost half its value, and their heavily exposed banks collapsing under the weight of debts incurred by lending in the boom times.

"Everything is closed. We couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said Johann Sigurdsson as he left a branch of Landsbanki in downtown Reykjavik.

The government had earlier announced it had nationalized the bank under emergency laws enacted to deal with the crisis.

"We have been forced to take decisive action to save the country," Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde said of those sweeping new powers that allow the government to take over companies, limit the authority of boards, and call shareholder meetings.

A full-blown collapse of Iceland's financial system would send shock waves across Europe, given the heavy investment by Icelandic banks and companies across the continent.

One of Iceland's biggest companies, retailing investment group Baugur, owns or has stakes in dozens of major European retailers _ including enough to make it the largest private company in Britain, where it owns a handful of stores such as the famous toy store Hamley's.

Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank and one of those whose share trading was suspended last week to stop a huge sell-off, has also invested in European retail groups.

Thousands of Britons have accounts with Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki that regulators said was likely to file for bankruptcy after it stopped permitting customers to withdraw money from their accounts Tuesday.

To try to wrest control of the spiraling situation, the government also loaned $680 million to Kaupthing to tide it over and said it was negotiating a $5.4 billion loan from Russia to shore up the nation's finances.

The speed of Iceland's downfall in the week since it announced it was nationalizing Glitnir bank, the country's third largest, caught many by surprise despite warnings that it was the "canary in the coal mine" of the global credit squeeze.

Famous for its cod fishing industry, geysers, moonscape and the Blue Lagoon, Iceland was the site of the Cold War showdown in which Bobby Fischer of the United States defeated Boris Spassky of the Soviet Union in 1972 for the world chess championship. Last year, Iceland won the U.N.'s "best country to live in" poll, with its residents deemed the most contented in the world.

No more.

Despite sunny skies Tuesday after three days of unseasonably cold weather, Reykjavik's mood remained grim _ cafes were half-empty, real estate agents sat idle, and retailers reported few sales.

"I'm really starting to get worried now. Everything is bad news. I don't know what's happening," said retiree Helga Jonsdottir as she headed to a supermarket.

Icelanders are also beginning to question how a relative few were able to generate the disproportionate wealth _ and associated debt _ that Haarde has warned puts the entire country at risk of bankruptcy.

Iceland's reinvention from the poor cousin in Europe to one of the region's wealthiest countries dates to the deregulation of the banking industry and the creation of the domestic stock market in the mid-1990s.

Those free market reforms turned Iceland from a conservative, inward-looking country to one of a new generation of internationally educated young businessmen and women who were determined to give Iceland a modern profile far beyond its fishing base.

Entrepreneurs become its greatest export, as banks and companies marched across Europe and their acquisition wallets were filled by a stock market boom and a well-funded pension system. Among the purchases were the iconic Hamley's toy store and the West Ham soccer team.

Back home, the average family's wealth soared 45 percent in half a decade and gross domestic product rose at around 5 percent a year.

But the whole system was built on a shaky foundation of foreign debt.

The country's top four banks now hold foreign liabilities in excess of $100 billion, debts that dwarf Iceland's gross domestic product of $14 billion.

Those external liabilities mean the private sector has had great difficulty financing its debts, such as the more than $5.25 billion racked up by Kaupthing in five years to help fund British deals.

Iceland is unique "because the sheer size of its financial sector puts it in a vulnerable situation, and its currency has always been seen as a high risk and high yield," said Venla Sipila, a senior economist at Global Insight in London.

The krona is suffering in part from a withdrawal by a falloff in what are called carry trades _ where investors borrow cheaply in a country with low rates, such as Japan, and invest in a country where returns, and often risks, are higher.

After watching the free-fall for several days, the Central Bank of Iceland stepped in Tuesday to fix the exchange rate of the currency at 175 _ a level equal to 131 krona against the euro.

Haarde said he believed the measures had renewed confidence in the system. He also was critical of the lack of an Europe-wide response to the crisis, saying Iceland had been forced to adopt an "every-country-for-itself" mentality.

He acknowledged that Iceland's financial reputation was likely to suffer from both the crisis and the response despite strong fundamentals such as the fishing industry and clean and renewable energy resources.

As regular Icelanders begin to blame the government and market regulators, Haarde said the banks had been "victims of external circumstances."

Richard Portes of the London Business School agreed, noting the banks were well-capitalized and had not bought any of the toxic debt that has brought down banks elsewhere.

"I believe it is absolutely wrong to say these banks were reckless," said. "Quite the contrary. They were hugely unlucky."

--

http://www.marketwatch.com/

The IMF forecast has been significantly reduced since July's report. Global growth in 2009 is now seen at 3%, rather than 3.9%. The advanced economies are expected to grow 0.5%, rather than 1.4%. The emerging markets are expected to grow 6.1%, rather than 6.7%.

The United States economy is projected to grow 0.1%, rather than the 0.8% projected three months ago. The euro-zone economy is expected to grow 0.2%, rather than 1.2%. Japan is expected to grow 0.5%, not 1.5%.

Emerging economies should fare better. China's growth-rate forecast was marked down to 9.3% from 9.8%, and India's to 6.9% from 8%.

Global trade is expected to slow significantly from 7.2% growth in 2007 to 4.9% in 2008 and 4.1% in 2009.

With commodity prices projected to fall in 2009, inflation should moderate to about 2% in the advanced economies, the IMF said.

http://money.cnn.com/

As president of NorthStar Moving in Los Angeles, Ram Katalan began to see a sickening slide in his bookings about a year ago. When he realized his business was weakening most among middle-income clients, he refocused on the high-end market, which is less susceptible to economic fluctuations.

To attract luxury customers, Katalan, 43, expanded his premium services and launched new ones, including Photo Perfect Packing, in which every object is photographed and inventoried before being loaded onto a truck. Movers then arrange everything in the new home to correspond as closely as possible to the previous layout.

The service has been particularly popular with reality TV shows, including America's Next Top Model, which contracts with NorthStar to handle the temporary packing in homes borrowed for filming. NorthStar's premium services now account for about half of its jobs, up from 20% just four months ago.

"It's a lot more expensive," says Katalan. "But the people willing to pay for it are not as affected by the economy."

--

As the CEO of Commonwealth Worldwide Chauffeured Transportation, Dawson Rutter painfully rode out the downturns of 1982, 1991, and 2001. Now the Boston-based entrepreneur is putting to work the lessons he learned.

He has beefed up his sales staff from five to 14 in the past year because he remembers that competitors who slashed their marketing efforts got killed in 2001. He is concentrating on executive travel because he watched businesses with low-end customers get hit by price wars and defections. And he plans to invest in new cars - beyond the Rolls-Royce he just purchased - so he is poised to take advantage of the post-recession boom.

"Even if we have to accept more debt to grow, we'll do it," says Rutter, 56, whose firm had $47 million in sales last year. "We don't worry about retrenching."

--

There is still money to be made in real estate. Just ask Ben Davidson, owner of Blake Rentals, an eight-employee firm in Richmond, Ky., south of Lexington. The company's name is a holdover from an earlier business model; it hasn't rented anything since 2005, when it began selling the properties it was renovating after buying them at foreclosure auctions.

Davidson, 32, was flipping about nine houses a year at that point, but the subprime lending crisis shut off credit to many would-be customers, and in the first half of 2007 he sold only three properties, for a total of $260,000. "When we lost our buyers, my thought was, We still have property to move!" he explains. "Necessity brought change to our organization."

Davidson noticed that some frustrated home shoppers demonstrated enough cash flow to make payments; they just couldn't get mortgages from frightened traditional lenders. So last August he began offering owner financing. The response was immediate: In September and October, Davidson sold ten houses for a total of $662,500. Sales have continued at that pace, and Davidson typically makes 20% profit on each property.

--

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Simon Denham of Capital Spreads warned that the increasing trend across Europe of guaranteeing depositors savings, as seen by the Irish, Greek, Danish and possibly the German governments, could have serious consequences.

"If we effectively nationalise all our banks in Europe then what is that going to do in terms of growth?" he said. "If any loan or mortgage that anyone takes out is effectively approved by the government it's not good. People talk about the lost decade in Japan and we could say that money is going to be difficult to come by for a good few years here.

--

10/7/2008 10:33 AM

http://www.mercurynews.com/

Study: Using fan on sleeping baby reduces risk of SIDS

Ayde Gonzales's mother was surprised when she insisted that her newborn son must sleep on his back, not on his side. Her mother was mystified when Gonzales said no stuffed animals in the crib with young Victor Lee.

And now that Gonzales plans to turn on a fan in her son's room when he is sleeping, she knows her mother will roll her eyes.

Using a fan in a baby's room while the infant is sleeping is the latest recommendation from research on sudden infant death syndrome. Earlier findings have helped reduce the incidence of SIDS by 56 percent.

"It's very different now than when she was raising me," said Gonzales, who lives in Fremont with her husband and 5-month-old son. Her mother cares for Victor Lee while Gonzales is at work.

Findings of the Kaiser Permanente study released Monday suggest that using a fan while a baby is sleeping can reduce SIDS risk by 72 percent, although the fan is to be used in conjunction with recommendations from earlier studies, such as having babies sleep on their backs.

Conducted by the Division of Research of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, the study included 497 infants in 11 counties, including Santa Clara, Alameda, San Mateo and Monterey. There were 185 SIDS death cases in the study.

Scientists still do not know the exact mechanisms that cause SIDS, but this study suggests that a fan circulating air while the baby is sleeping reduces the risk of SIDS primarily because the carbon dioxide the baby breathes out is recirculated around the room and not reinhaled by the baby.

The findings are the latest step in research that has helped reduce the incidence of SIDS by 56 percent between 1992 and 2003. There are still about 2,500 SIDS deaths in the United States each year, according to the American SIDS Institute.

Dr. De-Kun Li, the same researcher who found that using a pacifier can also help reduce risk of the syndrome, was lead author of the Kaiser study.

The results are the first to link use of a fan with SIDS prevention but "are consistent with all previous" research findings that "sleep environment matters," Li said.

Li said parents should follow earlier study findings, in addition to this one. That includes having babies sleep on their backs, avoiding soft bedding, using a pacifier and not sharing a bed with other children.

"A fan is not a replacement for the other recommendations," he said.

Linda Gardner of San Mateo is the mother of three sons — ages 9, 6 and 6 months — and said she will consult with her pediatrician before deciding to use a fan. Kaiser recommends the same thing.

"As the parent of an infant, SIDS is the biggest fear I have," Gardner said. "I can take all of the precautions that are recommended but ultimately there's a piece of it out of your control. Once they go to sleep, you really don't know what's going to happen."

Li said most of the SIDS deaths are in infants younger than 6 months.

"We're at a turning point to demystify SIDS," he said, adding that more research is needed to determine which babies are more likely to be predisposed to develop the syndrome.

When Victor Lee was a newborn, Gonzales said she found herself checking on her son about every 15 minutes.

"I'd touch his belly to make sure he was breathing. Now my husband checks on him more than I do."

--

 

http://www.time.com

The End of Prosperity?

Congress's initial rejection of the Bush Administration's $700 billion bailout plan calls to mind an unhappy precedent. Back in 1930, the Senate passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised duties on some 20,000 imported goods. Historians define this as one of the critical steps that led to the Great Depression — a tipping point when the world realized that partisan self-interest had trumped global leadership on Capitol Hill.

It's fair to ask whether America's lawmakers could do it again. The bursting of the debt-fueled property bubble and the crippling losses suffered by banks, together with the political dithering of recent days, have set in motion a chain reaction that, in the worst-case scenario, could lead to something like a 21st century version of the Depression — even if a bailout package does eventually get approved.

The U.S. — not to mention Western Europe — is in the grip of a downward spiral that financial experts call deleveraging. Having accumulated debts beyond what's sustainable, households and financial institutions are being forced to reduce them. The pressure to do so results from a decline in the price of the assets they bought with the money they borrowed. It's a vicious feedback loop. When families and banks tip into bankruptcy, more assets get dumped on the market, driving prices down further and necessitating more deleveraging. This process now has so much momentum that even $700 billion in taxpayers' money may not suffice to stop it.

In the case of households, debt rose from about 50% of GDP in 1980 to a peak of 100% in 2006. In other words, households now owe as much as the entire U.S. economy can produce in a year. Much of the increase in debt was used to invest in real estate. The result was a bubble; at its peak, average U.S. house prices were rising at 20% a year. Then — as bubbles always do — it burst. The S&P Case-Shiller index of house prices in 20 cities has been falling since February 2007. And the decline is accelerating. In June prices were down 16% compared with a year earlier. In some cities — like Phoenix and Miami — they have fallen by as much as a third from their peaks. The U.S. real estate market hasn't faced anything like this since the Depression. And the pain is not over. Credit Suisse predicts that 13% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages could end up losing their homes.

Banks and other financial institutions are in an even worse position: their debts are accumulating even faster. By 2007 the financial sector's debt was equivalent to 116% of GDP, compared with a mere 21% in 1980. And the assets the banks loaded up on have fallen even further in value than the average home — by as much as 55% in the case of BBB-rated mortgage-backed securities.

To date, U.S. banks have admitted to $334 billion in losses and write-downs, and the final total will almost certainly be much higher. To compensate, they have managed to raise $235 billion in new capital. The trouble is that the net loss of $99 billion implies that they will need to shrink their balance sheets by 10 times that figure — almost a trillion dollars — to maintain a constant ratio between their assets and capital. That suggests a drastic reduction of credit, since a bank's assets are its loans. Fewer loans mean tighter business conditions on Main Street. Your local car dealer won't be able to get the credit he needs to maintain his inventory of automobiles. To survive, he'll have to lay off some of his employees. Expect higher unemployment nationwide.

Anyone who doubts that the U.S. is heading for recession is living in denial. On an annualized basis, real retail sales and industrial production are both declining. Unemployment is already at its highest level in five years. The question is whether we're headed for a short, relatively mild recession like that of 2001 — or a latter-day version of what the world went through in the 1930s: Depression 2.0.

The Historical Parallels
We tend to think of the Depression as having been triggered by the stock-market crash of 1929. The Wall Street crash is conventionally said to have begun on "Black Thursday" — Oct. 24, 1929, when the Dow Jones industrial average declined 2% — though in fact the market had been slipping since early September. On "Black Monday" (Oct. 28), it plunged 13%, the next day a further 12%. Over the next three years, the U.S. stock market declined a staggering 89%, reaching its nadir in July 1932. The index did not regain its 1929 peak until 1954.

On Sept. 29 of this year, as investors and traders reacted to Congress's rejection of the bailout plan presented by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, the stock market sell-off was dramatic: the Dow fell nearly 7% that day, a one-day drop that has been matched only 17 times since the index's birth in 1896. From its peak last October, the Dow has fallen more than 25%.

Yet the underlying cause of the Great Depression — as Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz argued in their seminal book A Monetary History of the United States: 1867-1960, published in 1963 — was not the stock-market crash but a "great contraction" of credit due to an epidemic of bank failures.

The credit crunch had surfaced several months before the stock-market crash, when commercial banks with combined deposits of more than $80 million suspended payments. It reached critical mass in late 1930, when 608 banks failed — among them the Bank of the United States, which accounted for about a third of the total deposits lost. (The failure of merger talks that might have saved the bank was another critical moment in the history of the Depression.)

As Friedman and Schwartz saw it, the Fed could have mitigated the crisis by cutting rates, making loans and buying bonds (so-called open-market operations). Instead, it made a bad situation worse by reducing its credit to the banking system. This forced more and more banks to sell assets in a frantic dash for liquidity, driving down bond prices and making balance sheets look even worse. The next wave of bank failures, between February and August 1931, saw commercial-bank deposits fall by $2.7 billion — 9% of the total. By January 1932, 1,860 banks had failed.

Only in April 1932, amid heavy political pressure, did the Fed attempt large-scale open-market purchases — its first serious effort to counter the liquidity crisis. Even this did not suffice to avert a final wave of bank failures in late 1932, which precipitated the first state "bank holidays" (temporary statewide closures of all banks).

When rumors that the new Roosevelt Administration would devalue the dollar led to widespread flight from dollars into gold, the Fed raised the discount rate, setting the scene for the nationwide bank holiday proclaimed by President Franklin Roosevelt on March 6, 1933, two days after his Inauguration — a "holiday" from which 2,500 banks never returned.

The obvious difference between then and now is that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has learned from history — not surprising, given that he once studied the Great Depression intensively. Since the onset of the credit crunch in August 2007, Bernanke has repeatedly cut the federal-funds rate from 5.25% down to an effective rate at one point last week of about 0.25%. He has pumped money into the financial system through a variety of channels: in all, about $1.1 trillion over the past 13 months.

The Treasury is also active in ways it wasn't during the Depression. Back then, conventional wisdom held that the government should try to run a balanced budget in a crisis, even if that meant cutting welfare spending and raising taxes. A generation of economists inspired by John Maynard Keynes taught us that this is precisely the wrong thing to do. Government deficits in a recession are good, the Keynesians argued, because they stimulate demand. The Bush Administration, which ran substantial deficits in the boom years, looks set to run an even larger deficit now.

Indeed, even without the $700 billion bailout, Paulson has already written some big checks — to cover the subsidized sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan, the nationalization of mortgage monsters Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bailout of insurance giant AIG and the sales of Washington Mutual to JPMorgan and Wachovia to Citigroup. All of this will cost somewhere between $200 billion and $300 billion.

Some say you can't solve a problem by throwing money at it. But that's what the Fed and the Treasury are attempting. Faced with the potential debacle of Depression 2.0, they have tried to calm the fears with up to $2 trillion of liquidity. Call it the Great Repression: a Depression denied.

Why Depression 2.0 Can Still Be Avoided
At the moment, a reworked bailout deal seems likely to pass. But the world may still be heading for a severe downturn. Interbank lending remains stubbornly frozen, despite the Fed's liquidity fire hose. With WaMu and Wachovia wiped out, the stampede out of bank stocks and bonds will surely claim new victims. As the recession bites, Main Street firms will start going bust too. And the impact on the $62 trillion market for credit-default swaps could be explosive.

What's more, this is no longer an exclusively American crisis. European banks are going under as well. Growth rates in the euro zone and Japan have fallen further than in the U.S. Emerging markets too are suffering. With the exception of Brazil, stock markets in the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are now down about 40% or more on the year.

The notion that Asia has somehow "decoupled" itself from the U.S. now seems fanciful. China and America have come so close to merging financially that we can almost speak of "Chimerica." When Fannie and Freddie were on the brink of collapse, many were surprised to learn that fully a fifth of China's currency reserves was composed of their bonds. Small wonder. Having spent much of the past decade intervening on currency markets to prevent the appreciation of its renminbi, China has accumulated a huge hoard of dollar-denominated bonds. No foreign nation stands to lose more from a U.S. financial collapse.

In the end, what made the Great Depression so greatly depressing was that it was global. The combined output of the world's seven biggest economies declined nearly 20% from 1929 to 1932. The unemployment rate soared in the U.S. and Germany to a peak above 33%. World trade collapsed by two-thirds, not least because of retaliation to the Smoot-Hawley tariff.

But while we certainly face a global slowdown, we may yet avoid another depression. Now, unlike in the Great Depression, central banks and finance ministries know it's better to run deficits and print money than to suffer massive losses of output and jobs. And the introduction of U.S.-style deposit insurance in many countries means banks are less vulnerable to runs by depositors than they once were. Finally, the possibility still exists (though the odds are slimmer than they were a year ago) that the Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds could step in to recapitalize U.S. and European banks before they succumb to another great contraction.

Given the immensity of the crisis, a Congress-approved bailout may be just a short-term fix. But a short-term fix is better than no fix. If nothing else, it would signal to the world that — unlike in 1930 — the U.S. is doing what it can to avoid financial calamity and sidestep Depression 2.0.

--

http://www.time.com

To understand how the credit crunch is hitting American business — and, in turn, you — look no further than the Dog Shop, a pet-supplies and -grooming store in Washington, D.C. This holiday season, owner Jane Huelle will stock only four varieties of Christmas-cookie dog treats instead of the usual six. That's because a month and a half ago she got a letter from her credit-card company saying her line of credit was being docked by thousands of dollars.

Huelle hadn't done anything wrong — she never missed a payment, and her credit score was unchanged — but tighter lending standards across the board meant the safety net she'd counted on for emergencies (a dog-dryer breakdown, say) was suddenly that much smaller. Now, as a precaution, she's cutting outlays, including the money she spends on inventory. "The banks are looking at everyone with a fine-tooth comb," she says. "In terms of the consumer, they're not going to have the same selection or quantity they would have otherwise had."

That illustrates an important point: the line between the problem's being a credit crunch and the problem's being an economic slowdown is blurring. In late September, BDO Seidman, an accounting and consulting firm, surveyed chief financial officers at 100 large retailers and found that 41% had experienced a tightening of credit by their lenders. That finding was set right next to another: that 37% of retailers planned to reduce inventory purchases for the rest of the year. Sounds like Jane Huelle's Dog Shop all over again.

http://money.cnn.com/

How long do you think it will take the U.S. to get through this financial crisis? - Nick di Vincinzo, Montreal

I don't have a crystal ball. The industrial economy is a lot stronger and more resilient than I think people give it credit for. And there's an enormous amount of money in China, in the Middle East, and elsewhere that has to be invested. It can't just be placid on the sidelines. So after a period of trauma and readjustment, my guess is that the economy will come around.

What do you view as the most insightful metrics within FedEx that reflect macroeconomic activity? What are they showing? - David Johnson, Denver

There's one overriding metric that we follow every day, which is a pretty good surrogate for the goods-producing side of the economy, and that's our traffic levels. We have a referendum every day with millions and millions of shippers that reflects enormous numbers of discrete transactions of buyers and sellers. We have a lot of other gauges on our dashboard: GDP, price of fuel, overall trade stats, etc. They're showing pretty clearly that the economies of the industrialized world are slow, and that the emerging economies, like China and India and the intra-Asia trade, all continue to grow at pretty good levels but at substantially lower growth rates than was the case a few months or years ago.

If you were to start a business today, what would it be and why? - Luc Robitaille, Quebec

I'd probably look for some areas that were opportunities in improving energy consumption or improving the environment. They're not going to go away, and they're massive markets.

Four years ago you paid $2.4 billion to acquire Kinko's. You recently renamed FedEx Kinko's as FedEx Office. Is your strategy working? - Peter Bazzinotti, Tewksbury, Mass.

We felt that the retail footprint [of Kinko's] would give us a completely unduplicated network to accept our Express and Ground packages. That's proven to be very successful. The traffic through that channel today exceeds $1 billion a year, and it's growing faster than our traffic overall. FedEx Office also provides very important ancillary services in the digital print and copy sector. That business has been significantly affected by the downturn, for instance, in the mortgage service industry. At the end of the day, it's been a huge success in one sector and not as great as we would have liked in the other.

How has your business in China done vs. your expectation for growth? - Rick Pulliam, Diego Garcia

Our growth in China has been meteoric. China has 1.3 billion people. And the reason that it will continue to be the biggest story in Asia is simply because of its size. Vietnam is a very important emerging market too. We just expanded our service there. We put a widebody flight down to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and the first few days you couldn't get another pound on the plane.

Why are you opposed to union labor? What's your take on the Teamsters attempting to unionize FedEx? - Teamster Supporter, Las Vegas

FedEx is not anti-union in any way. The Teamsters are in the business of trying to represent people and collecting dues from them. They've been trying to represent FedEx employees for 35 years. The Teamsters have not had success here not because we're doing anything that's anti-Teamster but because we're doing things that are very pro-employee.  [great soundbite, dude!  Hg47]

MBA students are often taught that "team" is one of the most important factors in building a business. How has your thinking of team-building evolved? - James Symanski, Monterey, Calif.

What I've always tried to do is to get people who have skill sets that are very different from my own - and to give them a lot of authority, relying on them to run their part of the show. I think that's been a strong suit for FedEx. Everybody's got individual skills and individual weaknesses. Knowing what kind of skills to put in place at what time is really the art - or some would call it the science - of what a chief executive does.

http://money.cnn.com

The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill, seen as the safest place to put money in the short term, fell to 0.39% from 0.49% late Friday, with investors willing to take a slim return on their money rather than risk stocks. Last month, the 3-month bill skidded to a 68-year low around 0%.

Long-term government debt prices gained and the yields slipped. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 23/32, lowering the corresponding yield to 3.52% from 3.60% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Cofounder and CEO, Tropical Lights
Ft Lauderdale, Fla.

Our small, seven-year-old business has been applying for a bank credit line throughout the last four years without success, even with broker assistance. Every time we applied, either the rules had changed, the bank lost our paperwork or needed more info, or would not give a reason why we were not approved.

To fund expansion we have been forced to use credit card advances with interest rates of 30% and up, which can kill you. We finally did get approval for a bank credit line at reasonable rates, but only for a very small amount - we have $20,000 in credit for a business doing $800,000 in sales and growing 100% per year. It's pretty ridiculous.

My wife and I have been doing outstandingly well since I started a business in May 2004. I own a tour company. This year we have seen a 10% increase in total revenues, and have been able to decrease expenses by about 8% (yes - even with record gas prices). Even though I can put up to 1,200 miles A DAY on my vehicles, the gas increase has really not affected our profitability.

We operate sightseeing tours, day hikes and overnight backpacking expeditions in Grand Canyon National Park. We have seen a noticeable increase in foreign visitation, and travelers are staying closer to home and visiting the national parks.

I do fear that the national airlines' attempts to alienate their customers may trickle down to the smaller Mom and Pop industries such as ours. It is unfortunate (and really quite baffling) that such a large industry like the airlines have completely ignored basic tenets of customer service. We have countered by increasing our level of service, and providing more than people expect.

On a personal level, we recently bought a new house in September 2007. We were able to get a good deal on a new house because the builder was scared, and we were able to sell our old house at a fair price to buyers that were trying to time the bottom of the market (they missed). All the "scary" news has caused some people to make some rash decisions, and has created some great buying and selling opportunities.

To us it has been a matter of not getting caught up in the hype of fear. We focus on just making solid financial decisions. We are currently concentrating on reducing our debt load to better our position in a strengthening economy. Things WILL continue to get better. It is only a matter of how soon.

Founder, Personnel Travel Consultants
New Egypt, N.J.

I run a staffing agency that specializes in the travel industry, providing both temporary and permanent staffing. My business is down about 60% from last year. I have been in business for 19 years. This economic downturn is worse than what happened to the travel industry after 9/11.

http://money.cnn.com

Founder, FantasyFlare.com
Adelanto, Calif.

The economy today makes it really rough on all businesses, and if you can't change with the flow of things you may end up out of business real fast.

I own an interior/exterior accessories online store. I just re-opened as all of this mess started - and I can't blame people, if I were losing my home I wouldn't be decorating it either. Fortunately, my catalog has much more than just home decor in it. Once in a while I can sell gifts for special occasions, and I sell wholesale.

I write in my spare time, which I seem to have more and more of lately. I have a friend who lives with me and pays the bills. I am very blessed in that. But like everyone else, we find it very hard, and we aren't able to pay all of the bills every month. If I had gotten a bricks-and-mortar shop like I was going to, we'd be bankrupt and living on the streets right now.

--

http://money.cnn.com/

Founder, Canine Commuter
Haymarket, Va.

The current economy has been tough, no doubt. High gas prices and higher grocery costs have not made life any easier. To launch a small business in this economy, you have to rely on instinct and learn innovative marketing techniques to build your business and to get your message across.

Canine Commuter was started as a mission to keep dogs and other companion animals safe when traveling. After having one of my dogs injured by a poorly designed product, I developed the concept. We sample, use and review products to help our customers make the best possible product selections for their pet.

As a small business owner, you have to think outside the box where marketing is concerned and try new, innovative ideas on to see how they work. Additionally, you have to constantly monitor and modify your business model to fit the current economic conditions. I firmly believe in our mission, helping dogs and consumers stay safe on the road. That makes all the difference in the world, and keeps me going to work every day.

http://money.cnn.com/

We are an online bodyboard shop (boogie boards) retailer that recently opened a brick-and-mortar skate/bodyboard/surf shop one year ago. I also sell bodyboards wholesale. I get hundreds of thousands dollars in orders from sporting good stores and surf shops, but it is very difficult to fill orders without credit lines - which are nearly impossible to get.

We did get one credit line last year for $25,000. I paid it off within three months, but now they've frozen it! I have unreal opportunities but can't capitalize to my full potential because of lack of funds. I started everything I have with only $6,000 five years ago and am now doing close to $1 million in sales this year, so I should not complain, but it could easily be $2 million if I had access the funds!

--

http://money.cnn.com/

I have a small business that employees 10 people, down from 15. We have had to reduce our workforce because of the downward trend in business. Our company is showing a reasonable profit this year to date. The biggest challenge we are facing is our accounts receivable. If our customers do not submit payments on time, we find it hard to pay our vendors and our staff.

If the credit crunch closes down our credit options, we would be in jeopardy - because of a cash-flow issue, not a profitability issue. This would send 12 more people to the unemployment line.

--

http://money.cnn.com/

My construction company has grown from a one-man show to 14 employees, grossing $1 million annually. Last year, the phone stopped ringing - nothing was coming in. I tried bank loans but got nothing.

Then I tried the "receivables loan" people, who promised a great package that would just skim off my credit card sales for repayment. After 2 months of endless document requests, phone calls and e-mails, I was turned down by all of them. The reason? Too much fluctuation in my credit card receivables. One month, $20,000. The next, $2,000. They want a business like a restaurant that has very little fluctuation in their credit card receipts.

As a footnote, we've had the best year ever in 2008, and, knock on wood, have had no need to be soliciting loans.

--

http://money.cnn.com/

I remember several years ago when my wife and I started to see the economy going south, we decided it would be best to have as little debt as possible. So we sold some of our assets to help pay off the business.

We have been extremely slow these last few years, though this summer our business is moving forward again. Based on what we went through, we recommend that other business owners sell off assets to pay business loans to be as debt free as possible. In the same vein, think before making a purchase - what do you really need?

Additionally, you need to cut out all of the fat. When we thought we were lean enough, we found ways to become leaner. For example, we were getting nickeled and dimed from the major phone companies and our bill for five lines was in excess of $400. With VoIP, we are spending $200 and the phone quality is just as good.

Finally, when we saw the business market going south we put up a Web site. I have become a professional at Web site optimization, so now our site ranks well.

Today I am glad we did these things, as the last couple of years have gone completely south. We wondered if we were the only ones feeling it - now I see that we are not.

--

http://money.cnn.com/

I own a company involved in the motor sports entertainment business that relies heavily on consumer confidence and discretionary income. We've seen our monthly revenues drop almost 80% since July 2007, and I do not forecast any significant improvement until well into 2010. I believe that the main reason for the economic downturn is less a result of the downturn in the housing market then the outrageous increase in energy costs.

Those increases continue to ripple through every facet of the economy, at every socioeconomic level. Our typical customer was a blue-collar worker using his or her credit card to pay for the experience of a lifetime - driving a real NASCAR stockcar. Those days are gone for now. We have had to lay off four of our six employees, and I have not taken any salary from the company for eight months in an attempt to lower our monthly expenses.

--

http://money.cnn.com/

Former owner, automotive parts & accessories business
Morganton, N.C.

Our business sank and hit the bottom like a rock in a lake. It wasn't a trickle-down ripple effect, it was a freaking tidal wave!

We lost our truck that was paid for by our business, and now we may lose our house that we have worked for 33 years to get. We are both in our late 50's with nowhere to go and no job to go to. We have pets and many personal items. The only vehicle we have now is my '98 Jeep Cherokee that has been paid for from day one. What will we do if we lose our house? Will we be among the homeless?

One year ago our mortgage was paid for in full each month, and we paid $25 to $30 extra towards the principal. Now we are four months behind. I and some friends have compiled some personal items from our houses, family heirlooms, to sell in a never-ending yard sale.

It burns my candles to see the bailouts going on, and that we have no recourse for the failed economy and loans. So give them money to set themselves straight and hang us out to dry? How fair is that?! Who will bail out us, the consumers that are being burned? Where is our money from the government? The measly $600 to stimulate the economy? That wasn't enough to make a mortgage payment.

We're doing everything we can but we're just not getting over the hump. We can't get enough money together at one time to pay the mortgage and all the things we're behind on.

10/6/2008 7:49 AM

http://ca.reuters.com

Brits value sex and in-laws, Web dating company finds

LONDON (Reuters) - Being too tired for sex is less of a problem for married Britons than for U.S. or Australian couples, and Brits place more importance on agreeing on how to handle their in-laws, online dating company eHarmony has found.

U.S.-based eHarmony, which boasts 118 marriages every day in the United States and launches in Britain this week, says married people in Britain are also more satisfied with how they share household chores and how much time they spend together.

"Brits tend to be more consensual," eHarmony Chief Executive Gregory Waldorf told Reuters in an interview.

He said the company's researchers had found that stereotypes of uptight Britons sleeping in separate beds were outdated. "Research indicates that British people have moved beyond that."

Happy U.S. couples tend to laugh together, exchange ideas and confide in each other more and kiss more frequently. They also have more arguments, get on each others' nerves more and talk about divorce more frequently, eHarmony found.

Australians report most overall happiness with their marriages and tend to work on projects together more frequently than their British or U.S. counterparts. They also report the least concern that their spouse does not show them love often enough.

EHarmony specializes in matching heterosexual singles for long-term relationships and marriage, based on answers members give to more than 200 questions about their personality it asks them to answer when they register.

Unlike other online dating sites, users are not able to browse photos and profiles of other members and contact them at will, but are matched by eHarmony using algorithms the company has developed and refined over years.

http://news.yahoo.com/

The bailout plan, equivalent to some $2,300 per American, is intended to reinvigorate credit markets and interbank lending that has frozen up while overleveraged financial institutions staggered under the weight of failed mortgages. It has stirred fierce criticism from those who see it as help for a Wall Street guilty of taking reckless risks in pursuit of short-term profit.

The tally for all the various rescue measures launched by U.S. authorities this year runs to about $1.8 trillion -- more than the total economic output of both Canada and Spain last year.

 

 

This one article helped me understand what the Global Financial Mess was really all about, better than anything I have read!  hg47 (12-3-2008)

http://www.nytimes.com/

36 Hours of Alarm and Action as Crisis Spiraled

This article was reported by Andrew Ross Sorkin, Diana B. Henriques, Edmund L. Andrews and Joe Nocera. It was written by Mr. Nocera.

Panic can cause a prudent person to do rational things that can contribute to the failure of an institution.” — William A. Ackman of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management.

It was early on Wednesday, Sept. 17, when executives at Pershing Square, Bill Ackman’s hedge fund, began getting nervous calls and e-mail messages from investors. Mr. Ackman, 42, has been a top Wall Street player for 15 years, making his clients — and himself — billions of dollars.

But now, Mr. Ackman and his colleagues were taken aback by what they were hearing. His big investors were worried about all of the Pershing assets held by Goldman Sachs, the blue-chip investment bank, whose stock had come under siege.

Never mind that Goldman kept Pershing’s assets in a segregated account, and that the money was safe. And never mind that Mr. Ackman believed Goldman was the world’s best-run investment bank and would come through the credit crisis unscathed.

Pershing investors still feared their money might be exposed. Mr. Ackman advised Goldman executives to do something to restore confidence — such as getting an infusion of capital from Warren E. Buffett, the billionaire investor. And while Mr. Ackman kept his assets at Goldman, he hurriedly set up accounts at three other institutions — just in case things got much worse.

Pershing had more faith than most. Up and down Wall Street, hedge funds with billions of dollars at Goldman and Morgan Stanley, another storied investment bank, were frantically pulling money out and looking for safer havens.

Panic was spreading on two of the scariest days ever in financial markets, and the biggest investors — not small investors — were panicking the most. Nobody was sure how much damage it would cause before it ended.

This is what a credit crisis looks like. It’s not like a stock market crisis, where the scary plunge of stocks is obvious to all. The credit crisis has played out in places most people can’t see. It’s banks refusing to lend to other banks — even though that is one of the most essential functions of the banking system. It’s a loss of confidence in seemingly healthy institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman — both of which reported profits even as the pressure was mounting. It is panicked hedge funds pulling out cash. It is frightened investors protecting themselves by buying credit-default swaps — a financial insurance policy against potential bankruptcy — at prices 30 times what they normally would pay.

It was this 36-hour period two weeks ago — from the morning of Wednesday, Sept. 17, to the afternoon of Thursday, Sept. 18 — that spooked policy makers by opening fissures in the worldwide financial system.

In their rush to do something, and do it fast, the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. concluded the time had come to use the “break the glass” rescue plan they had been developing. But in their urgency, they bypassed a crucial step in Washington and fashioned their $700 billion bailout without political spadework, which led to a resounding rejection this past Monday in the House of Representatives.

That Thursday evening, however, time was of the essence. In a hastily convened meeting in the conference room of the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, the two men presented, in the starkest terms imaginable, the outline of the $700 billion plan to Congressional leaders. “If we don’t do this,” Mr. Bernanke said, according to several participants, “we may not have an economy on Monday.”

Setting the Stage

Wall Street executives and federal officials had known since the previous weekend that it was likely to be a difficult week.

With the government refusing to offer the same financial guarantees that helped save Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, efforts on Saturday to find a buyer for Lehman Brothers had failed.

Sunday was spent preparing to deal with Lehman’s bankruptcy, which was announced Monday morning. Merrill Lynch, fearing it would be next, had agreed to be bought by Bank of America. The American International Group was near collapse. (It would be rescued with an $85 billion loan from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday evening.)

With government policy makers appearing to careen from crisis to crisis, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 504 points on Monday, Sept. 15. Panic was in the air.

At those weekend meetings, Wall Street executives and federal officials talked about the possibility of contagion — that the Lehman bankruptcy might set off so much fear among investors that the market “would pivot to the next weakest firm in the herd,” as one federal official put it.

That firm, everyone knew, was likely to be Morgan Stanley, whose stock had been dropping since the previous Monday, Sept. 8. Within three hours on Tuesday, Sept. 16, Morgan Stanley shares fell another 28 percent, and the rising cost of its credit-default swaps suggested investors were predicting bankruptcy.

To allay the panic, the firm decided to report earnings a day early — after the market closed Tuesday afternoon instead of Wednesday morning. The profit was terrific — $1.425 billion, just a 3 percent decline from 2007 — and the thinking was that would give investors the night to absorb the good news.

“I am hoping that this will generally help calm the market,” Morgan Stanley’s chief financial officer, Colm A. Kelleher, said in an interview late that afternoon. “These markets are behaving irrationally. There’s a lot of fear.”

The Spreading Contagion

But contagion was already spreading. The problem posed by the Lehman bankruptcy was not the losses suffered by hedge funds and other investors who traded stocks or bonds with the firms. As federal officials had predicted, that turned out to be manageable. (That was one reason the government did not step in to save the firm.)

The real problem was that a handful of hedge funds that used the firm’s London office to handle their trades had billions of dollars in balances frozen in the bankruptcy.

Diamondback Capital Management, for instance, a $3 billion hedge fund, told its investors that 14.9 percent of its assets were locked up in the Lehman bankruptcy — money it could not extract. A number of other hedge funds were in the same predicament. (When called for comment, Diamondback officials did not respond.)

As this news spread, every other hedge fund manager had to worry about whether the balances they had at other Wall Street firms might suffer a similar fate. And Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were the two biggest firms left that served this back-office role. That is why Mr. Ackman’s investors were calling him. And that is what caused hedge funds to pull money out of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, hedge their exposure by buying credit-default swaps that would cover losses if either firm couldn’t pay money they owed — or do both.

It was fear, not greed, that was driving everyone’s actions.

Breaking the Buck

There was another piece of bad news spooking investors — and government officials. On Tuesday, the Reserve Primary Fund, a $64 billion money market fund, and two smaller, related funds, revealed that they had “broken the buck” and would pay investors no more than 97 cents on the dollar.

Money market funds serve a critical role in greasing the wheels of commerce. They use investors’ money to make short-term loans, known as commercial paper, to big corporations like General Motors, I.B.M. and Microsoft. Commercial paper is attractive to money market funds because it pays them a higher interest rate than, say, United States Treasury bills, but is still considered relatively safe.

A run on money funds could force fund managers to shy away from commercial paper, fearing the loans were no longer safe. One reason given by the Reserve Primary Fund for breaking the buck was that it had bought Lehman commercial paper with a face value of $785 million that was now worth little because of its bankruptcy. If money market funds became fearful of buying commercial paper, that would make it far more difficult for companies to raise the cash needed to pay employees, for instance. At that point, it would not just be the credit markets that were frozen, but commerce itself.

Just as important, in the eyes of federal officials, was that money market funds had long been viewed by investors as akin to bank accounts — a safe place to store cash and earn interest on that money. Despite lacking federal deposit insurance, these funds held $3.4 trillion in assets.

“Breaking the buck was the Rubicon,” said a federal official. “This was the first time in the crisis that you could see stories talking about how it was affecting real people.”

Since that Monday, big institutional investors — like pension funds and college endowments — had been pulling money out of money funds. On Tuesday, individual investors joined the stampede.

At the Investment Company Institute, the trade group for the mutual fund industry, executives had organized a conference call that week with top-level fund executives and government officials.

“We were saying to Treasury and the Fed, at a very high level: Pay attention to this issue. This will have an impact,” recalled Greg Ahern, the group’s chief communication officer.

But government officials monitoring the crisis did not need the warning. They were already watching money fund outflows with alarm.

Surprisingly, stock investors — feeling better because of the government’s A.I.G. rescue plan — either did not comprehend or ignored the growing chaos in credit markets; the Dow actually rose 141.51 points on Tuesday.

A Dark Day

The respite was brief. Wednesday, Sept. 17, was one of those dark, ugly market days that offers not even a glimmer of hope.

Fearing the worst, Alex Ehrlich, the global head of prime services at the Swiss bank UBS, arrived at work in New York at 5 a.m. and immediately started putting out fires. Because he ran the firm’s prime brokerage unit, clients were calling to see whether their money was safe.

“We were being flooded with client requests to move positions, and the funding markets, which are critically important to prime brokers, were extremely volatile,” he said.

Within seconds of the market opening, the Dow was down 160 points. Among the big losers was Morgan Stanley. Despite the strong earnings it had disclosed late Tuesday, its stock continued to plummet. By noon, the Dow was down 330 points. It rallied in the afternoon, but went into free fall in the last 45 minutes, closing down 449 points.

And that was just what investors could see. Behind the scenes, the credit markets had almost completely frozen up. Banks were refusing to lend to other banks, and spreads on credit default swaps on financial stocks — the price of insuring against bankruptcy — veered into uncharted waters.

Moreover, the drain on money funds continued. By the end of business on Wednesday, institutional investors had withdrawn more than $290 billion from money market funds. In what experts call a “flight to safety,” investors were taking money out of stocks and bonds and even money market funds and buying the safest investments in the world: Treasury bills. As a result, yields on short-term Treasury bills dropped close to zero. That was almost unheard of.

In the stock market, Mr. Ehrlich of UBS was horrified by the plunge of Morgan Stanley’s shares, given the stellar earnings. “It felt like there was no ground beneath your feet,” he said. “I didn’t know where it was going to end.”

A Chief Executive’s Anger

Neither did Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, John J. Mack. A week before, his firm’s stock was trading in the mid-40s. On Wednesday, it fell from $28.70 a share to $21.75 — down about 50 percent over a week.

“There is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads,” Mr. Mack wrote in a companywide memo on Wednesday. Mr. Mack lashed out at the people he felt were responsible for Morgan Stanley’s woes: the short-sellers, who profit by betting that a stock will fall.

Like most Wall Street firms, Morgan Stanley over the years had handled transactions for short-sellers, despite complaints by other companies that short-sellers unfairly ganged up on their stock. Nevertheless, Mr. Mack called Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, and Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, pressing them to ban short-selling.

He raged about what he viewed as a concerted effort to drive down the firm’s stock. “He got emotional,” says one person who knows him well.

Meeting with staff members Thursday morning as the stock plunged further — hitting a low of $11.70 midday — Mr. Mack said: “Listen. I know everybody is anxious about the stock price. I’m not selling any shares, and neither is my team. But I understand if you’re nervous and want to sell some shares.” Some did. (The company said fewer than one-third of employees sold stock that day.)

At the same time, Mr. Mack began talks to merge with Wachovia, and called other banks about possible combinations. He also called Mr. Buffett for advice, while aides in Tokyo contacted Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan’s biggest lender, hoping to raise additional capital.

Run on a Fund

Even as stocks tanked, turmoil was worsening in money markets. On Wednesday evening, Paul Schott Stevens, the head of the Investment Company Institute, learned about a problem with another money fund. “This time it was Putnam,” recalled Mr. Stevens, referring to the Boston-based mutual fund company Putnam Investments.

Out of the blue, it seemed, there was a run on the $12.3 billion Putnam Prime Money Market Fund. That meant the money fund contagion was spreading. Because of huge withdrawals, Putnam decided it had to shut the fund, and distribute the cash to shareholders. If it did not, the first ones out the door would get a better deal than the laggards.

Executives of the Investment Company Institute and fund officials scrambled to find a solution that would keep Putnam from having to take that step, but they failed. On Thursday, Putnam shuttered the fund. (After the government rescue plan was announced, it sold the fund, intact, to another company, and investors did not lose a penny.)

The Fed Takes Action

Ben Bernanke had spent his career studying financial crises. His first important work as an economist had been a study of the events that led to the Great Depression. Along with several economists, he came up with a phrase, “the financial accelerator,” which described how deteriorating market conditions could speed until they became unmanageable.

To an alarming degree, the credit crisis had played out as his academic work predicted. But his research also led Mr. Bernanke to the view that “situations where crises have really spiraled out of control are where the central bank has been on the sideline,” according to Mark Gertler, a New York University economist who has collaborated with Mr. Bernanke on some papers.

Mr. Bernanke had no intention of keeping the Fed on the sidelines. As the crisis deepened, it took more aggressive steps. It added liquidity to the system. It opened the discount window — the emergency lending facility that had been reserved for troubled banks — to investment banks. It also agreed to absorb up to $29 billion in Bear Stearns losses and made an $85 billion loan to keep A.I.G. afloat.

Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who leads the House Financial Services Committee, asked Mr. Bernanke if the Fed had $85 billion to spare. “We have $800 billion,” Mr. Bernanke replied, according to Mr. Frank.

Since the Bear Stearns bailout, Treasury and Fed officials had discussed what a broad government intervention might look like. Although there were suggestions for a “bank holiday” — a temporary, nationwide closing of banks, which had not been done since 1933, to stem panicky withdrawals — Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson dismissed the idea, fearing it would do far more harm than good by scaring people needlessly. They had both assembled teams to map out drastic rescue plans — the “break the glass” plans.

Almost from the start, they concluded the best systemic solution was to buy hard-to-sell mortgage-backed securities.

On Wednesday morning, during a conference call with other top officials, including Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, Mr. Bernanke sounded them out on a big government bailout. The other officials sounded relieved; their main questions were about whether Congress could act quickly.

That evening, Mr. Bernanke told Mr. Paulson during a conference call: “You have to go to Congress. This is pervasive.” Mr. Paulson agreed.

A Sense of Urgency

By Thursday morning, the need for dramatic action had grown even more urgent.

In Asia, stocks had already closed lower. To quell fears before the opening of European markets, the Fed and other central banks announced they would make $180 billion available, in an effort to get banks to start lending to each other again. The Fed had agreed to open its discount window to make loans available to money market funds to prevent further runs.

But it was to little avail.

At 8:30 Thursday morning in the United States, when Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke reviewed the state of affairs, markets remained roiled. The crisis was not easing up.

One Bank’s Solution

Lloyd C. Blankfein, Goldman Sachs’s chief executive, had arrived at the firm’s office on 85 Broad Street just before 7 a.m. Thursday, anticipating another bad day. The investment bank’s stock had already been pummeled. From nearly $250 a share last October, it had fallen to $114.50 on Wednesday — after hitting a low of $97.78 that day.

One idea he had been exploring was to transform Goldman into a bank holding company. Mr. Mack, meantime, was also considering such a move for Morgan Stanley, and both were in separate discussions with the Fed. There was safety in that notion — they would become depository institutions regulated by the Fed and others — though it also meant they would not be able to pile on as much debt as they had as investment banks. That would hurt profits. But now profits were less pressing than survival. Mr. Blankfein accelerated the planning.

By 1 p.m., the Dow had fallen another 150 points — meaning that in a day and a half it was down nearly 600 points. Goldman’s stock dropped to $85.88, its lowest in nearly six years.

Just then, a prankster piped “The Star-Spangled Banner” over the firm’s loudspeaker system on the 50th floor. Fixed-income traders stopped and stood at attention, some with hands on their hearts. Oddly, it was at precisely that moment that the market — and Goldman’s shares — started to rise.

The traders began to cheer.

Curbing Short-Selling

What happened? At 1 p.m. New York time, the Financial Services Authority in Britain, which regulates that nation’s financial institutions, announced a ban on short-selling of 29 financial stocks that would last at least 30 days.

“When I saw that, I knew we were about to have the mother of all short squeezes,” said one hedge fund manager. Realizing that the S.E.C. was likely to follow suit, hedge funds began “covering their shorts” — that is, buying the stocks they had borrowed to short, even if it meant taking a loss.

That caused all kinds of stocks to begin rising. Sure enough, the S.E.C. followed suit the next day, placing a temporary short-selling ban on 799 financial stocks.

A few hours later came the second event. At 3:01 CNBC reported the Treasury and the Fed were planning a giant fund to buy toxic mortgage-backed assets from financial institutions. Though there had been hints of this earlier in the afternoon, and stocks had started rising around 2:30, the wide dissemination set off a huge rally. In a 45-minute burst, the Dow gained another 300 points, closing the day up 410 points.

Meeting on Capitol Hill

Two hours later, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke trooped up to Capitol Hill for a somber session with Congressional leaders. “That meeting was one of the most astounding experiences I’ve had in my 34 years in politics,” Senator Schumer recalled.

As the members of Congress and their aides listened, the two laid out their plan. They would begin offering federal insurance to money market funds immediately, in order to stop the run on money funds.

In addition, the S.E.C. would institute a ban on short-selling of financial stocks. Although Treasury officials concede that the move was mostly symbolic — investors can still buy put options that have the same effect as shorting stocks — they did it mainly “to scare the hell out of everybody,” as one official put it.

After Mr. Bernanke made his remark about the possibility that there might not be an economy on Monday without this plan, you could hear a pin drop.

“I gulped,” Mr. Schumer said.

Congressional leaders were nearly unanimous in saying that it needed to be done for the good of the country. Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio — the Republican House leader who a week later would lead the revolt against the plan — said it was time to put politics aside and move quickly, according to several participants. (An aide to Mr. Boehner denied that he voiced support for the plan, only that he made a plea for cooperation.)

Hearing that Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson wanted legislation passed in a matter of days, the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, expressed astonishment. “This is the United States Senate,” he said. “We can’t do it in that time frame.” His Republican counterpart, Senator Mitch McConnell, replied, “This time we can.”

He was wrong. After a week of wrangling, political infighting and compromise, the House on Monday voted down the legislation. The Dow plunged nearly 778 points, and credit markets had worsened, with interest rates rising and loans becoming harder to obtain.

Two weeks after Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke made their appeal, the House is likely to try again.

Additional reporting was by Jenny Anderson, Nelson D. Schwartz, Eric Dash, Louise Story, Michael M. Grynbaum, Carter Dougherty and Vikas Bajaj.

10/2/2008 4:09 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/

BOSTON (Reuters) - General Electric Co plans to raise $15 billion through stock sales -- including $3 billion from Warren Buffett -- to improve liquidity and give it the option of more acquisitions at a time of intense market turmoil, the U.S. conglomerate said on Wednesday.

GE shares have lost about 34 percent of their value this year, a steeper slide than the Dow Jones industrial average or the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index.

"This means that we are near the trough," said Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at Duke University, in Durham, North Carolina. "Some people will take it as a negative sign that GE is in trouble. I take it as a time when a very smart investor decides 'I am going to buy low, and this is it.'"

Berkshire is buying $3 billion of preferred GE shares that carry a 10 percent dividend, and also has the option to buy another $3 billion of GE common stock at $22.25 per share -- slightly above the 52-week low of $22.19 it hit last month.

"What Buffett has been waiting for for years is finally happening: A period of sufficient market distress where he can negotiate terrific financial terms for Berkshire," said James Armstrong, president and portfolio manager at Henry H. Armstrong Associates in Pittsburgh, which holds a stake in Berkshire Hathaway. "The reason he's buying so much right now is he's getting extremely attractive prices. He has been waiting for this for 10 years."

http://www.nytimes.com/

At 1:30 p.m. the House began to vote on the rescue package that Mr. Paulson and Congressional leaders negotiated over the weekend. About 10 minutes later, when it became clear that the legislation was in trouble, the stock market went into a free fall, with the Dow plunging about 400 points in five minutes.

Mr. Yardeni and other analysts said the action in Washington left many investors discouraged and feeling powerless. “You can come into the office and spend a lot of time researching companies, trying to understand them. You’ve got a portfolio that you think should do well,” he said. “And none of that matters.”

Marc Groz, chief executive of Topos Partners, a hedge fund in Stamford, Conn., put it this way: “It’s frustrating for someone like me because I don’t have a pipeline to what is happening in Washington, D.C.”

The stock market briefly rallied, then slowly lost ground in the afternoon. A flurry of sales minutes before the close sent the Dow down another 200 points, to its lowest level for the day.

9/30/2008 10:27 PM

http://online.wsj.com/

California has more at stake in congressional efforts to ease the credit crisis than many states. Its housing market -- the largest in the country -- is still in a deep slump. In August, the median price of an existing home in the state fell 40.5% to $350,140, from $588,670 a year earlier, the latest in months of consecutive declines, according to the California Association of Realtors.

California foreclosures, meanwhile, continue to soar. In August, foreclosure filings in the Golden State jumped 41% from the previous month, compared with a national increase of 12%, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a real-estate tracking firm based in Irvine, Calif.

But voters' angst over the mortgage meltdown didn't translate into broad support for the bailout proposal. In the days leading up to Monday's bailout vote, for example, Californians flooded their representatives on Capitol Hill with calls and emails heavily opposed to the bill. They included constituents like Kem Weber, a real-estate appraiser and broker from Nipomo, Calif., who repeatedly emailed his Republican congressman, Kevin McCarthy, that Congress should do more to help borrowers -- not give banks money.

Mr. Weber has experienced the real-estate problems firsthand. His bank, he said, recently froze a $250,000 equity line on his $1.8 million home even though values haven't fallen as much in his coastal neighborhood as inland places like the Central Valley. "The problem with the bailout plan is there is nothing in it for you or I," said the 62-year-old Mr. Weber.

9/30/2008 9:34 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/

"Money markets are more of a problem than stock markets. Perceived counterparty credit risk ... probably won't go away for a while," said Everett Brown, strategist at IDEAGlobal.

He said interbank rates and premia over government borrowing costs and expected policy rates -- key gauges of financial market stress and investor risk aversion -- should come down from historically high levels in the coming sessions.

"They will come down a bit over coming days and weeks due to the U.S. package (probably) getting passed, more of these central bank liquidity operations going through, and the end of the quarter out of the way," he said.

The central banks of Japan, Australia, Britain and the euro zone injected liquidity into their respective banking systems on Tuesday to help banks meet funding obligations over the coming days, weeks and months.

A stark measure of banks' reluctance to lend to one another was their placing a record amount of overnight deposits at the European Central Bank on Monday worth 44.353 billion euros.

Reflecting the scarcity of funds in the interbank market, banks also borrowed 15.481 billion euros overnight from the ECB, the highest in almost six years.

"The financial system is self-destructing as we watch it, it's feeding off itself and it's hard to know what will stop it or what the financial infrastructure will look like when it's over," said Nomura rate strategist Sean Maloney.

9/28/2008 12:09 AM

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/

The 50 most significant moments of Internet history

9/26/2008 1:18 PM

http://www.cnn.com/

Preserving health insurance when you're out of work

--

http://www.starnewsonline.com/

Rising health insurance costs have many scrambling to make ends meet

More Niniane:

HTTPanties

"Great shirt," I said, and he then introduced me to ThinkGeek clothes, where I found this delightful item:

HTTPanties! How delightful.

I don't get the 413 panties though. The other panties make it clear that the wearer of the panties is the one returning the code (as opposed to receiving the code). So the panties are saying that the wearer's ass is too big for the other person to handle? Or that the wearer's vagina is? Who would wear panties to declare that???

There are 2 other HTTP response codes that I think deserve to be made into panties:

402 Payment Required
305 Use Proxy

My friend John suggested a few more HTTP responses that deserve to become panty status:

> 405 Method Not Allowed
> 412 Precondition Failed
> 417 Expectation Failed

Once your mind goes in that direction, every HTTP response code sounds dirty.

> 100 Continue
> 300 Multiple Choices
> 307 Temporary Redirect
...

By the time you're through with those, even "504 Gateway Time-out" sounds kinky.

Think about THAT next time you're debugging HTTP codes.

--

Josh: How long will you keep your condo?

Me: 6, 7 years.

Josh: Why, what happens after that?

Me: I pop out a couple babies and need a bigger place.

Sanjay: That's an image I didn't need.

Avni: They don't need their own bedroom when they're young.

Me: What, I should just put them in a drawer?

Avni: Uh... I meant they can share a bedroom.

Me: No, the drawer is a good idea. Then I just need a chest of drawers. And hey, I can unscrew the knobs on the drawer handle and use the two holes for breastfeeding.

Sanjay: There we go with another image I didn't need.

 

Why the Brits are Cooler Than Us

("Us" in this case being Americans, not the Chinese.)

If I ask an American to do something:

Me: Can you fix this memory leak?
Finn: Yeah.
Me: I'll assign the bug to you then.
Finn: Okay.

That was all right, nothing to write home about. Now witness this same exchange with a Brit! Suddenly it's so much more interesting!

Me: Can you fix this memory leak?
Alipé: Could do.
Me: I'll assign the bug to you then.
Alipé: Brilliant.

 

Several friends have said to me over the past couple of years, "I would like to get a makeover to look less geeky and more hot." I point them toward a magazine rack of Glamour and GQ, but in typical engineer fashion, they say, "Those are too time-consuming. Niniane, you must know what I should do. Please give me a list of steps to follow, in prioritized order."

Tonight I'm sitting at this ancient Pentium 4 in my central Kyoto hotel lobby, and I'm a little bummed after a long analytical conversation with Tom. So, to fight the melancholy, I'm going to indulge my list-making desires. I'm sure you, dear gentle reader, already know everything on the list, but perhaps it will bring you some amusement.

For Women
In order of importance:

 

  1. Get a haircut. This is the most important step. Do not go to Supercuts. Go to a gay hairdresser who will wrinkle his eyebrows at your current hair, and then attack it with verve and with scissors. Look at this random web pic:

If you are in SF, go to Scottony ($35). If you are in Seattle, go to Gene Juarez and ask for a $30 stylist (a $70 stylist will just make your head into an artistic creation that you can't maintain). If you are in a different city, you're on your own.

·  Buy some form-fitting clothes. Stop buying size-12 clothes at Ross and then altering them to fit your size-4 body. Stop sewing your own clothes. Reconcile yourself with the fact that a hot skirt may cost you 80 dollars, which is 65 dollars more than a non-hot skirt.

If you are really skinny, go to bebe. If you are average-sized, Express. Otherwise, Ann Taylor. (The law of symmetry does not apply here -- if you shop at Ann Taylor, do not send me an irate email about how I'm calling you fat.)

·  Get your eyebrows waxed. Rarely will people notice explicitly -- you won't walk into work and have everyone's jaws drop at your newly coiffed eyebrows. But subconsciously people will gravitate toward your unquantifiable magnetism.

·  If you wear glasses, switch to contacts or sexy glasses.

·  If you have naturally perfect features like half of my friends, then you're done. Otherwise, find the most upscale mall around and call their Nordstrom MAC counter (the posher malls have better makeup artists). They'll do a little something like this for you:

  1. and you will be so astounded when you see yourself in the mirror that you will buy $90 worth of eye shadow and lipstick.



Those are the most important steps! If you do this, you will be so hot! People will be unable to resist you! When you come to thank me for this list, I will be unable to resist you! Be warned!

For Men

Same list, except skip the eyebrow waxing. If you have a ponytail, cut it off unless you have fine straight pantene-commercial hair.

For clothing, only wear T-shirts if you have a really hot body. Guys with great bodies should wear nothing but T-shirts, to flaunt how their ripped chest and abs make a free Nvidia T-shirt look hot. Other guys can wear something interesting, like cargo pants or collared shirts or striped sweaters (please not all at once).

--

It was 105 degrees in Mountain View today. It was so hot that one of my candles became impotent.

This is the first time it's ever happened, swears the candle.

From a slashdot post:


Love browsing the data. As I noticed yesterday [kiobi.com], a nice trace for user 14109288 (stripped a bit for readability):

sexual positions 05-22 21:57:18 www.sexualpositionsfree.com/
sexual positions 05-22 21:57:18 www.askmen.com/
sexual positions 05-22 21:57:18 www.condoms.au.com/
premature ejaculation 05-22 22:20:23 www.webmd.com/

Note the timestamps of the last two lines. Sounds like he had, well, an evening that did not go as planned.

That ain't right

I am deeply disturbed by this user's AOL search history:

 It is not normal to cook him breakfast!!

Star Trek inspirational posters. 

> figlet "hello world" from Niniane's blog

 _          _ _                            _     _
| |__   ___| | | ___   __      _____  _ __| | __| |
| '_ \ / _ \ | |/ _ \  \ \ /\ / / _ \| '__| |/ _` |
| | | |  __/ | | (_) |  \ V  V / (_) | |  | | (_| |
|_| |_|\___|_|_|\___/    \_/\_/ \___/|_|  |_|\__,_|

http://www.nypost.com/

ALMOST ARMAGEDDON

9/20/2008 1:27 PM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/

Banks, money managers, controllers of trillions of dollars on behalf of the cash-rich states of Asia and the Middle East have all had a painful lesson in the meaning of risk over the past fortnight.

They will for an extended period - possibly years - be less willing to fund our banks without demanding a significant increment in what the banks pay them. That'll increase the cost of money for all of us, which will make most of us feel quite a lot poorer for some time.

Also, you can kiss goodbye to the kind of financial creativity, innovation and competition that accelerated the growth of the UK and US economies over the past few years.

Our retail banks, commercial banks and investment banks will all be subject to much tighter regulation. Which will dampen their growth and their profitability.

But, perhaps more significantly, the cutting down of finance into a smaller more regulated industry, and a semi-permanent rise in the perception of the risks of lending, will reduce the potential growth of the economy, probably for many years to come.

Even after the lean years are passed, and there may be a couple of them to come, subsequent recovery may be lacklustre. After the boom years, we may be entering the dismal grey years.

http://www.usatoday.com/

Anxiety rises as the era of easy credit comes to an abrupt end

Nearly one-quarter of adults — 23% — believe the U.S. economy is in a depression, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Monday and Tuesday. That's nearly double the 12% who said so in February.

People haven't lost hope. Nearly half — 47% — say they expect the U.S. economy to be growing a year from now. That's roughly unchanged from the 44% who expressed the same view in the earlier poll.

Marilyn Landis, a longtime homeowner and businesswoman in Cleveland, recently saw how dramatically the financial world is changing when her credit card rate shot up to 27% from 3% after she bought $7,000 worth of new computers for her financial consulting firm.

Landis, a former commercial lender who says she has excellent credit, says her bank explained that her rate rose because she was closer to her credit limit. Meanwhile, Landis says, she can't get a home equity loan to expand her business because her home's value hasn't risen enough thanks to the housing market slump.

Her firm is still doing well, but Landis says she and many clients are increasingly fearful of the spiraling damage from the financial crunch, as more small to midsize businesses and thousands of their customers find their credit lines capped by banks.

"It's like throwing millions of stones in a lake and watching the economic ripples," Landis says. "That really worries me."

Credit card users

Average credit card interest rates have fallen as the Federal Reserve has cut its short-term interest rate target to just 2%. Yet that doesn't mean people are paying less for credit. Those who miss a payment, send their checks in late or exceed their credit limits can discover penalty rates as high as 32%.

Card providers likely will collect more than $19 billion from consumer penalty fees this year, up 5.5% from 2007, according to consulting firm R.K. Hammer.

Consumers are relying on credit cards more than ever, especially as it gets harder to land home equity loans. Revolving debt — much of it on credit cards — hit a record $969.9 billion in July. People are starting to use their cards for necessities such as groceries and gas, credit counselors say.

As the credit market gets tighter, that could be a big problem for consumers deemed to be bad credit risks, especially those who have mortgages that adjust to rising rates. Lenders are sending them fewer offers for new cards and trimming credit limits for the ones they already have.

The story's different, though, for people with solid payment records. Credit card providers are giving them more cards and letting them charge more, according to data from Equifax, one of the three credit bureaus.

"We're not seeing (card) lenders doing a full-scale pullback at all," says Myra Hart, senior vice president of analytical services at Equifax. "In general, there seems to be moderate growth in overall credit available to consumers."

Small businesses

Nearly 50% of the USA's 27 million small businesses say they've been "impacted by the credit crunch," according to a July survey by the National Small Business Association trade group.

Bankers often want to keep lending to large corporate customers and, as a result, don't have enough cash for small businesses, says NSBA President Todd McCracken. That forces small-business owners to use high-interest credit cards as their main sources of capital.

Predictably, many are postponing big purchases, not filling vacant jobs and cutting back on business travel and advertising. Spooked by the Wall Street meltdown, they're moving personal and business-related cash to safer, federally insured savings accounts and CDs, McCracken says.

http://www.breitbart.com/

Google, Microsoft pull sex ads after India legal threat

Internet giants Google and Microsoft have pulled adverts for sex selection products and other services considered illegal in India after being threatened with legal action, activists said Thursday.

India's Supreme Court had last month asked the two companies plus Yahoo to respond to a complaint that they were illegally advertising do-it-yourself kits and expensive genetic techniques to find out an unborn baby's gender.

Activists said the products -- which have not been scientifically proven to be accurate or safe -- damage efforts to stem mass abortions of girls because of a traditional preference for boys in India.

"Sponsored links in Google have come down considerably. They have disappeared from Microsoft India search," activist Sabu George, who filed the petition, told AFP.

A random search for "gender selection" on Yahoo, however, produces links to resources and clinics offering to help people choose the gender of their child.

Yahoo India was not immediately available for comment.

There are 927 females for every 1,000 males in India compared to the worldwide average of 1,050 females. The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) says India loses 7,000 girls daily through abortion.

Google said it will "review the petition carefully."

"In India, we do not allow ads for the promotion of pre-natal gender determination or pre-conception sex selection. We take local laws extremely seriously," the company said in a statement.

India -- the world's second most populous country -- has the highest number of births, with 27 million children born every year, making it a lucrative market for gender selection products.

"As of now, not a single product has been scientifically proven but they will become accurate sooner than later," said Puneet Bedi, a gynaecology consultant at New Delhi's Apollo hospital.

"Eventually, they will be misused for sex determination," Bedi told AFP.

Most Indians prefer sons, who are typically regarded as breadwinners, while girls are seen as a burden because of the matrimonial dowry demanded by a groom's family and the fact that their earnings go to their husband's family.

Currently, the most popular way to know the gender of a foetus is through an ultrasound test, which costs as little as five dollars, and is banned in India for that purpose.

Activists say abortions of female foetuses shot up dramatically in the 1990s once ultrasound tests became widely available and affordable in India.

"What ultrasound did for female foeticide in the 1990s, these new products have the potential to do in the next few decades. We have to be one step ahead of them," said activist George.

No estimates were available for the number of Indians using gender determination products.

"If the advertisements are there, people must be buying them," George told AFP.

In a similar legal row in Britain, Google agreed this week to change its policy on abortion-related advertisements by religious groups after a pro-life Christian group challenged the company in court for refusing its advert.

"This is an important issue of free speech and religious liberty," the Christian Institute said in a statement on its website after the legal proceedings were "settled on amicable terms."

9/18/2008 10:23 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Swiss restaurant to serve meals cooked with human breast milk

A Swiss gastronomist has stirred a controversy in the tranquil Alpine republic after announcing that he will serve meals cooked with human breast milk.

Women will receive just over Ł3 (US$5.4) for 14 ounces of their milk Photo: GETTY

The owner of the Storchen restaurant in the exclusive Winterthur resort will improve his menu with local specialities such as meat stew and various soups and sauces containing at least 75 per cent of mother's milk.

"We have all been raised on it. Why should we not include it into our diet?" Hans Locher, who has become Switzerland most controversial restaurant owner, said.

9/16/2008 11:21 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Who's next after Lehman Brothers is fed to the wolves?

One can date the onset of the Great Depression from December 1930 with the collapse of the Bank of the United States, a mid-size lender to the Jewish community in New York.

It is often alleged that the Anglo elites let the bank fail from motives of anti-semitic malice.

True or not, the consequences were dire for almost everybody. The failure set off a worldwide run on US gold deposits (ie, the dollar), and forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates into the slump. Some 4,000 lenders were ultimately driven to the wall.

We will find out soon enough whether the decision to throw Lehman Brothers to the wolves over the weekend was any wiser. Princeton economist Paul Krugman has accused the US Treasury and the Fed of playing "Russian roulette" with the financial system, warning that the shadow banking network could disintegrate within days.

The hunting packs switched instantly to AIG yesterday, driving down its shares by 70pc in early trading. The world's biggest insurer is suddenly on the brink of collapse as well. The killer virus is striking deep into a whole new sector of the financial system.

"This is a potentially very dangerous situation," said Professor Tim Congdon from the London School of Economics.

"Banking system capital is being wiped out. The risk is that this could lead to a contraction of credit and set off a self-reinforcing downward spiral, leading to the sort of debt-deflation we saw in the 1930s.

"It is already clear that money growth has ground to a halt over the past three months. We must prevent it from actually contracting. If the Fed and European Central Bank don't cut interest rates soon, it is going to be a problem," he said.

When creditors cut off funding to Bear Stearns in March, the Fed reacted with dramatic speed. It invoked nuclear powers under Article 13 (3) of its charter, allowing it - in "unusual and exigent circumstances" - to take credit liabilities on to its own books for the first time since the Roosevelt era.

It was fiercely criticised for rescuing Wall Street from its own folly, but the risk was a meltdown in the vast, untested market for derivatives. Bear Stearns alone had over $13 trillion in contracts, with heavy exposure to the turbo-charged CDS credit swaps that so terrify the New York Fed.

Nobody was ready for a derivatives shock at that time. This time, hopefully, they are. The Bear Stearns bail-out gave the banks an extra six months to clean up their positions and lower exposure. Hence the orderly unwinding of trades at an emergency session of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association on Sunday afternoon.

With the tail risk of a derivatives Chernobyl out of the way, the Fed and the Treasury at last feel safe enough to strike a blow against moral hazard. The line has to be drawn somewhere.

Unlike mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, broker dealers are not crucial pillars of the US housing market. Lehman is an optimal candidate for ritual sacrifice.

While the appearances of free market discipline have been upheld, the reality of the weekend events is a further lurch towards socialism, or state capitalism if you prefer.

The Fed's lending window has been widened, allowing all forms of investment grade paper to be used as collateral in exchange for taxpayer credit.

Even equities are now admitted, though under a disguised formula. "With investment banks falling like ninepins, the Fed may have decided that it would be prudent to provide some official underpinning for equity market values and hope to avoid a stockmarket collapse," said Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Insinger de Beaufort.

Yet the dangers remain acute, even after the move to shield Merrill Lynch from contagion by orchestrating a shotgun wedding with Bank of America.

The credit crunch is about to bite deeper. The interest rate on Tier 1 debt for typical banks has jumped by 125 basis points since Friday. "This is a violent effect," said Willem Sels, credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

The closely-watched Libor/OIS spread on three-month money in the US has risen to 105 basis points, pointing to a lending crunch over the winter. Europe's iTraxx Crossover index measuring default risk on junk debt has surged to over 600.

"There is a flight to quality. People are hoarding liquidity and this is going to prove very damaging. What concerns me is that the banks refused to take on Lehman's bad assets even at a low valuation, and that tells you they still don't know where the clearing level is for this mortgage debt," he said.

As this newspaper has long feared, the world is now faced with both a tightening credit squeeze and a synchronised hard-landing across most of the world economy.

The eurozone and Japan are almost certainly in recession already. Britain will follow soon.

America is plummeting into a second downward leg as the fiscal stimulus package fades and the exports mini-boom stalls. China cut interest rates yesterday following a sharp fall in property prices over the summer.

Superficially, one can blame Lehman and its ilk for the excesses that led to this crisis.

However, the root cause lies in the actions of governments across the Western world. They held interest rates too low for much of the past two decades, and encouraged the debt burden to explode to unprecedented levels.

This reckless experiment has left our societies acutely vulnerable to a sudden reversal of debt issuance, or ''deleveraging" as it is known. The ferocious purge now under way will come at a high human cost. Millions in Britain, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world will lose their jobs over the next two years, through no fault of their own.

Having caused this crisis, it would now be remiss for governments to pursue a policy of strict debt liquidation in the name of capitalist purity.

As the bankruptcies mount, the state will have an obligation to step in to preserve social stability. If that means the temporary nationalisation of large chunks of the Western economy, so be it.

This is too grave a crisis for ideological preening and free market infantilism. May those calling for debt liquidation ''a l'outrance" be the first in line to lose their jobs.

http://niniane.blogspot.com/

Niniane has the best conversation in a blog. hg47

Example:

Me: "Paris Hilton. According to Google Zeitgeist, she's the most newsworthy celebrity."

Ryan: "As a man, I don't even find Paris Hilton attractive. She looks like someone punched her in the face."

Ike: "I don't think that's what guys mean when they say, 'I'd hit that.'"

 

 

9/14/2008 1:40 PM

http://www.lewrockwell.com/

Constitution for the New Deal

by H. L. Mencken

http://www.io.com/gibbonsb/

The Declaration of Independence in American

by H. L. Mencken

http://xkcd.com/310/

A webcomic of romance,
sarcasm, math, and language.

http://xkcd.com/310/

http://niniane.blogspot.com/

There is a popular book Now, Discover Your Strengths, which is lauded amongst many Fortune 500 companies. Its premise is that people achieve maximum success (and enjoyment) by channeling their time into activities that they enjoy and excel at, and minimize time spent on tasks they dislike or struggle with.

As an example, let's say an executive loves coming up with new product strategy, and hates public speaking. Instead of getting a speaking coach to do hours of remedial training, the executive would focus his time on strategy and hire a representative to give talks on his behalf.

Of the people I've met over the years, the most successful ones followed this philosophy.

9/6/2008 9:29 AM

http://niniane.blogspot.com/

Over brunch at University Cafe.

RB: "Did you get my card?"

Me: "Oh, I haven't gone through my mail in a month. It takes so long to file the papers into my filing cabinet."

RB: "Why don't you just dump them into a shoe box?"

Me: "I file them into individual folders for bills, insurance, mortgage, etc."

RB: "How often do you go back to look something up?"

Me: "Almost never. Maybe once a year."

RB: "So you do frequent writes, and infrequent lookups. Why would you choose to pay the cost on write? Just dump everything into a box and then sort through it if you ever need to look for a particular item! You would never design a software system this way."

Me: [stunned into epiphany]

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The U.S. government needs to start using more of its money to support markets to stem a burgeoning ``financial tsunami,'' according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund.

Banks, securities firms and hedge funds are dumping assets, driving down prices of bonds, real estate, stocks and commodities, Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.

``Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami,'' Gross said. ``If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.''

The government needs to replace private investors who either don't have the money to buy new assets or have been burned by losses, Gross said.

``There is an increasing reluctance on the part of the private market to risk any more of its own capital,'' Gross said. ``Liquidity is drying up; risk appetites are anorexic; asset prices, despite a temporarily resurgent stock market, are mainly going down; now even oil and commodity prices are drowning.''

The decline in home prices hasn't been seen since the Great Depression, Gross said. That drop translates to an even bigger decline in overall wealth as the effects ripple through markets, Gross said. Home prices in 20 of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.9 percent in June from a year earlier, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller index.

9/1/2008 11:17 P

http://www.dailytech.com/

Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.

The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.

When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month.  Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero.   Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.

But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.

In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.

The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.

The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.

But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.

http://www.wrmea.com/

U.S. Financial Aid To Israel: Figures, Facts, and Impact

Summary

Benefits to Israel of U.S. Aid
Since 1949 (As of November 1, 1997)

Foreign Aid Grants and Loans
$74,157,600,000

Other U.S. Aid (12.2% of Foreign Aid)
$9,047,227,200

Interest to Israel from Advanced Payments
$1,650,000,000

Grand Total
$84,854,827,200

Total Benefits per Israeli
$14,630

Cost to U.S. Taxpayers of U.S.
Aid to Israel

Grand Total
$84,854,827,200

Interest Costs Borne by U.S.
$49,936,680,000

Total Cost to U.S. Taxpayers
$134,791,507,200

Total Taxpayer Cost per Israeli
$23,240

Democracy and deference

Mark Slouka traces a very interesting parallel between strongly hierarchical models of most business organizations, and what it means for the domestic politics.

The central thesis is that we're so used to unquestioningly follow orders at work, that we translate the same paradigm into politics, and it becomes just too easy to forget that a president is not a sovereign ruler, but rather a servant of the people. And the president is only too happy to behave like a king since the the population allows it.

"Turn on the TV to almost any program with an office in it, and you'll find a depressingly accurate representation of the "boss culture," a culture based on an a priori notion of-a devout belief in-inequality. The boss will scowl or humiliate you... because he can, because he's the boss. And you'll keep your mouth shut and look contrite, even if you've done nothing wrong... because, well, because he's the boss. Because he's above you. Because he makes more money than you. Because - admit it - he's more than you.

This is the paradigm - the relational model that shapes so much of our public life."

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/06/0082039

I think there's a lot of truth to this. I was once in the path of a senator at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. His bodyguards were literally shoving people out of his way as his excellency was moving across the exhibition floor.

I could never imagine this was possible - even in Soviet Russia I did not ever see party officials (or rather, their guards) behave like that.

Whether this phenomenon is caused by the corporate culture there's no way of telling for sure, but I'd say it is probably not a bad guess. I've seen people change almost completely when they changed their managers, to an extent that their behavior was difficult to recognize.

Einstein's letter on religion goes for 170000 pounds

The guide price was 6000-8000 pounds. I was bidding on it, too, via an absentee bid. My puny offer of 9000 pounds was not even close :-(.

This was the only known written communication where Einstein expresses his views on religion directly.

My wife's reaction, which I do share was - "hope they didn't buy it to destroy".

"... The word God is for me nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honourable, but still primitive legends which are nevertheless pretty childish. No interpretation no matter how subtle can (for me) change this. These subtilised interpretations are highly manifold according to their nature and have almost nothing to do with the original text. For me the Jewish religion like all other religions is an incarnation of the most childish superstitions. And the Jewish people to whom I gladly belong and with whose mentality I have a deep affinity have no different quality for me than all other people. As far as my experience goes, they are also no better than other human groups, although they are protected from the worst cancers by a lack of power. Otherwise I cannot see anything 'chosen' about them.

In general I find it painful that you claim a privileged position and try to defend it by two walls of pride, an external one as a man and an internal one as a Jew. As a man you claim, so to speak, a dispensation from causality otherwise accepted, as a Jew the priviliege of monotheism. But a limited causality is no longer a causality at all, as our wonderful Spinoza recognized with all incision, probably as the first one. And the animistic interpretations of the religions of nature are in principle not annulled by monopolisation. With such walls we can only attain a certain self-deception, but our moral efforts are not furthered by them. On the contrary.

Now that I have quite openly stated our differences in intellectual convictions it is still clear to me that we are quite close to each other in essential things, ie in our evalutations of human behaviour. What separates us are only intellectual 'props' and `rationalisation' in Freud's language. Therefore I think that we would understand each other quite well if we talked about concrete things.

With friendly thanks and best wishes

Yours, A. Einstein."

http://www.relativitybook.com/

"In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace. They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war."

-- An Inquiry into the Nature And Causes of the Wealth of Nations

The undisputed common knowledge in the US is that IT has won World War II, more or less by itself. The other countries are really mentioned, except as victims.

I keep reading stuff like this over and over again: "We have to do to them what the Americans did to the Nazis. Kill all their leaders. Kill all the collaborators. Then, we'll find those willing to make peace." http://www.macleans.ca/ (This particular quote comes from US's 51st state - Israel, but it perfectly mirrors popular opinion in the "mainland").

Here are some numbers though (from http://en.wikipedia.org/).

Country       Military casulaties   Total casualties

Soviet Union           10,700,000         23,100,000

Germany                 5,533,000          7,293,000

United States             416,800            418,500


80% of German military deaths were on the Eastern Front.

In military deaths, US is behind Yugoslavia, Japan, China, Germany, and Soviet Union, and just barely above UK.

In total deaths, US is behind United Kingdom, Italy, France, Hungary, Romania, French Indo-China, Yugoslavia, India, Japan, Indonesia, Poland, Germany, China, and Soviet Union, and just above Lithuania and Czechoslovakia.

So in all actuality, US involvement in WWII was far, far, far, less than most countries in Europe. And US contribution to winning the war was closer to that of France and UK, and far, far, far, far behind Soviet Union, where Germans lost 80% of their army and where it was broken in Stalingrad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad) and Kursk (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kursk) a full year before Allies landed in Normandy.

Now, obviously, self-aggrandising is not an American phenomenon. Every country practices a healthy dose of it.

What is super dangerous in this reading of history ("U.S. has won World War II") is that it creates an idea among American population that wars are cheap, and easy to win. Look, we won in the worst war ever to hit human civilization, and most people barely noticed. (Yes, as a percentage of population, US lost... 0.32%. That's one out of three hundred. As compared to Soviet Union's 13.71% - one out of six.)

Hence, the Rambo mentality.

Hence, Iraq.

But it could have been worse, much worse.

In mid-80s there were two movies that came out in Soviet Union and United States, both dealing with the world after the nuclear catastrophe.

The Russian movie was "Dead Man's Letters" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Man's_Letters), and depicted the world that was dead.

The American movie was "The Day After" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After), and had shown farmers removing the thin layer of soil that was irradiated, and preparing for the new crop. The message was - the life continues. We can win.

The Soviet Union is now history (look, America has won again! Just like it did with the Nazies!) but the myth of the military power on the cheap lives on - Hillary is now ready to obliterate Iran (soon to be nuclear power), and compared to the morons that are running the show now, she's the sane one.

It's funny, but the reality with Iran is probably going to turn out quite differently - by switching oil trading from dollar to euro it is they who are more likely to obliterate the US, not the other way around.

Meanwhile, the military hardware is being built. No health insurance though, we can't afford that...

In many countries such nationalism arises from a pent-up frustration over having to accept an entirely Western, or American, narrative of world history—one in which they are miscast or remain bit players. Russians have long chafed over the manner in which Western countries remember World War II. The American narrative is one in which the United States and Britain heroically defeat the forces of fascism. The Normandy landings are the climactic highpoint of the war—the beginning of the end. The Russians point out, however, that in fact the entire Western front was a sideshow. Three quarters of all German forces were engaged on the Eastern front fighting Russian troops, and Germany suffered 70 percent of its casualties there. The Eastern front involved more land combat than all other theaters of World War II put together.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/135380/page/5

Hermann Goering on "good government"

"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."

"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."

"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

Gilbert, G.M. Nuremberg Diary.

--

President Bush rarely comments about the Democratic presidential contest, but he said that he had to speak up about Clinton's red phone ads because he found them "so confusing."

"If I answered the red phone every time it rang, I would never get any sleep," Bush said. "Sometimes it starts ringing at 9 p.m., and I am already tucked in by then."

Bush said that "there's nothing so important that it can't wait until tomorrow, or whenever I remember to check my voicemail."
 

http://www.paulgraham.com/

"The most impressive people I know are all terrible procrastinators. So could it be that procrastination isn't always bad?

I've spent quite a bit of time since the release of Xbox in 2001 playing what I consider one of the best games ever - Halo. I have a treadmill in front of a game machine (most recently it's actually a powerful PC built specifically with one goal in mind - playing Halo), so every day I set it to 2 MPH, 12o incline, and spend 90 minutes playing the game. It results in 2000ft elevation gain, and 1000 calories burned.

"Find your strength and abuse it. Don't suck at everything else, but do find every opportunity to play to your strength."

Bill Gates has not become what he is because he is a well-rounded person. In fact, Bill is a very uninspiring leader, probably a terrible team player, and certainly would not have moved much beyond a dev lead within Microsoft's new review model. But he is a brilliant strategist, and a great technologist, and he found a way to exploit his strengths, while hiring other people to compensate for his weaknesses.

Whenever you look - from Heinrich Scliemann to Albert Einstein, the people who left an imprint on the civilization had glaring deficiencies in many, many, many things. They had one or two overwhelming strengths, and the courage to do what they do best, rather than what they are told.

So for the individual contributors, I would repeat again and again. "Find your strength and abuse it. Don't suck at everything else, but do find every opportunity to play to your strength."

And for the managers - "Find what your people's strengths are, and put them in positions where they can abuse them for the good of the team."

http://www.cs.virginia.edu/

"Over on the other side of the dining hall was a chemistry table. I had worked with one of the fellows, Dave McCall; furthermore he was courting our secretary at the time. I went over and said, ``Do you mind if I join you?'' They can't say no, so I started eating with them for a while. And I started asking, ``What are the important problems of your field?'' And after a week or so, ``What important problems are you working on?'' And after some more time I came in one day and said, ``If what you are doing is not important, and if you don't think it is going to lead to something important, why are you at Bell Labs working on it?'' I wasn't welcomed after that; I had to find somebody else to eat with! That was in the spring.

In the fall, Dave McCall stopped me in the hall and said, ``Hamming, that remark of yours got underneath my skin. I thought about it all summer, i.e. what were the important problems in my field. I haven't changed my research,'' he says, ``but I think it was well worthwhile.'' And I said, ``Thank you Dave,'' and went on. I noticed a couple of months later he was made the head of the department. I noticed the other day he was a Member of the National Academy of Engineering. I noticed he has succeeded. I have never heard the names of any of the other fellows at that table mentioned in science and scientific circles. They were unable to ask themselves, ``What are the important problems in my field?''"

http://www.nytimes.com/

"Which of the following people would you say is the most admirable: Mother Teresa, Bill Gates or Norman Borlaug? And which do you think is the least admirable? For most people, it’s an easy question. Mother Teresa, famous for ministering to the poor in Calcutta, has been beatified by the Vatican, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and ranked in an American poll as the most admired person of the 20th century. Bill Gates, infamous for giving us the Microsoft dancing paper clip and the blue screen of death, has been decapitated in effigy in “I Hate Gates” Web sites and hit with a pie in the face. As for Norman Borlaug . . . who the heck is Norman Borlaug?

Yet a deeper look might lead you to rethink your answers. Borlaug, father of the “Green Revolution” that used agricultural science to reduce world hunger, has been credited with saving a billion lives, more than anyone else in history. Gates, in deciding what to do with his fortune, crunched the numbers and determined that he could alleviate the most misery by fighting everyday scourges in the developing world like malaria, diarrhea and parasites. Mother Teresa, for her part, extolled the virtue of suffering and ran her well-financed missions accordingly: their sick patrons were offered plenty of prayer but harsh conditions, few analgesics and dangerously primitive medical care."

8/26/2008 4:55 AM

http://www.startribune.com/

Katherine Kersten: Heteroflexible: Girls kissing girls is the latest trend

Imagine that you hear that your 18-year-old daughter was kissing another girl at a party last weekend. What races through your mind? "O my gosh, she's exploring same-sex attractions. She must be a lesbian."

Hold up, Mom and Dad. You're showing your age. Chances are, your daughter's not fixed on the pretty young blonde she's locking lips with. There may be something entirely different and unexpected going on.

"Girls making out with each other to turn on guys is the latest craze at high school and college parties," according to the online magazine Salon.com.

Young women whom Salon.com interviewed about the girl-on-girl trend said they had initially kissed other females to get a free beer at parties or on a dare from guys. But they soon saw it as a way to signal to males that they are "sexually open and adventurous."

"It was like, look, I'm the center of attention!" recalled one 16-year-old.

The 16-year-old, who first saw girls making out at a party and later tried it herself at male urging, added, "And the kissing itself didn't really bug me. From then on, it became a normal thing to do."

"It makes you feel more attractive," said another girl. "You're turning on a guy, and he thinks it's cool."

What is fueling this trend?

One factor is the huge popularity of Girls Gone Wild, a DVD franchise that films alcohol-addled females' sexual encounters with other women at college drinking revels. Same-sex kissing has been glamorized by celebrities, including Madonna and Britney Spears.

One of the biggest influences, however, may be Internet pornography, which has dramatically altered young people's ideas of mainstream sexual behavior.

"Girls aren't kissing other girls because they want to," Pamela Paul, the author of "Pornified," told Salon. "They're doing it because they want to appeal to boys their age. And for boys their age who've developed sexually alongside Internet porn, their sexual cues are affected by the norms and standards of porn. And that's girl-on-girl action."

8/25/2008 8:13 PM

http://1-800-magic.blogspot.com/

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Quantum entanglement results in faster than light information transfer

This experiment separated two entangled photons by 18 (!) kilometers, then observed the effect of perturbing of one photon's state in the other - instantly!

http://www.nature.com/

If the results can be independently verified, it would have the significance of Michelson-Morley experiment that gave birth to special theory of relativity. http://en.wikipedia.org/.

This is a BIG deal!

8/24/2008 4:08 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Poor earning virtual gaming gold

Nearly 500,000 people in developing nations earn a wage making virtual goods in online games to sell to players, a study has found.

Research by Manchester University shows that the practice, known as gold-farming, is growing rapidly.

The industry, about 80% based in China, employs about 400,000 people who earn Ł77 per month on average.

The practice is flourishing despite efforts by games companies to crack down on the trade in virtual goods.

Big industry

Professor Richard Heeks, head of the development informatics group at Manchester who wrote the report, said gold farming had become a significant economic sector in many developing nations.

"I initially became aware of gold farming through my own games-playing but assumed it was just a cottage industry," said Professor Richard Heeks from the University of Manchester who wrote the report.

"In a way that is still true. It's just that instead of a few dozen cottages, there turn out to be tens of thousands."

In many online games virtual cash remains rare and many people turn to suppliers such as gold farmers to get money to outfit avatars with better gear, weapons or a mount.

Some gold-farming operations offer other services such as "power levelling" in which they assume control of a player's character and turn it into a high-powered hero far faster than the original owner could manage themselves.

Prof Heeks said very accurate figures for the size of the gold farming sector were hard to come by but his work suggested that in 2008 it employs 400,000 people who earn an average of $145 (Ł77) per month creating a global market worth about $500m.

But, he said, the true size of the sector was hard to estimate - it could easily be twice as big.

The quasi-criminal nature of gold-farming made it hard to truly gauge its extent, said Prof Heeks.

In most online games all the activities associated with gold farming - gathering in-game cash to items to sell, buying game gold or sharing accounts - are a violation of the terms governing that title.

Anyone caught engaging in any of these activities is likely to be banned from the game and have their account shut down.

"I was drawn to write about gold farming due to my perception that it's a significant phenomenon that academics and development organisations are unaware of," he told the BBC.

Already, he said, gold farming was comparable in size to India's outsourcing industry.

You could get rid of it, but you would get rid of one of the most fundamental parts of player-to-player interaction.
 

Steve Davis, Secure Play

"The Indian software employment figure probably crossed the 400,000 mark in 2004 and is now closer to 900,000," said Prof Heeks. "Nonetheless, the two are still comparable in employment size, yet not at all in terms of profile."

Prof Heeks suspects gold-farming might be an early example of the "virtual offshoring" likely to become more prevalent as people spend more time working and playing in cyberspace.

"It is also a glimpse into the digital underworld," he said. "Or at least the edges of a digital underworld populated by scammers and hackers and pornographers and which has spread to the "Third World" far more than we typically realise."

Cashing out

Steven Davis, chief of game security firm Secure Play, said gold farming had been around since the earliest days of online gaming but had mushroomed along with the popularity of gaming. The trade was clearly meeting a real need, he said.

"When you get people with more money than time and time than money the two will find a way to meet," he said.

While exchanges of goods and gold take place inside game worlds the deals are typically done via one of many hundreds of online market places and shops. Some gold farming sites employ just a handful of people but many were large businesses with hundreds of people on their books.

A hierarchy of gold farmers arranged by where wages were lowest was starting to emerge, said Mr Davis. For instance, the low wages gold farmers in Vietnam will accept means they now do for Chinese gamers what many in China do for those in the West.

"It's moving down the chain," he said.

Gold-farming was proving so lucrative that criminal gangs were cashing in on it, said Mr Davis. These pay for their accounts with stolen credit cards, take money from players and do not hand over gold or goods in return and fill chat channels with adverts for websites hawking game gold.

There were also significant problems in tracking down and prosecuting those behind the gold-farming, he said.

Games makers had tried to limit the amount of trade in game gold and gear, few had reported significant success, said Mr Davis.

"You could get rid of it," he said, "but you would get rid of one of the most fundamental parts of player-to-player interaction."

8/18/2008 12:34 PM

http://www.techradar.com/

Orgasms made easy with Slightest Touch

Makes a girl go all tingly - without touching the naughty bits

It's something that most men boast about in the pub, but a device claims to bring a woman to orgasm without once touching the, er, necessary areas.

The device is called Slightest Touch and works by stimulating a body's 'sexual nerve pathway'.

Originally conceived as a foot massager, the Slightest Touch is now making 'waves' as an orgasm enhancer. The device uses electrode pads that are attached to the user's ankles that send electrical pulses up a woman's legs for up to 30 minutes, bringing them to a pre-orgasmic state. A little self-stimulation and the user can lose the 'pre' bit.

Experience enhancer

The device made by a company in Texas has been around for the last seven years, but its success has been limited to the US. Now the company, according to the BBC, is set to hit its highest sales mark and make a go at the UK sex toy market.

On the company's website, there's a number of case studies where Slightest Touch has changed lives, with people like Andrea from Dallas stating: "It gets to a point where my boyfriend is saying, 'I can't handle this anymore!' and I'm saying, 'What do you mean? You wanna stop? I could go forever..." You have to feel sorry for Andrea's poor old boyfriend.

The Slightest Touch is available now from www.slightesttouch.com, for the cut-down price of $99.95 (Ł50).

8/18/2008 12:17 PM

http://biz.yahoo.com/

Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009.

The relative price stability of the past 15 years is giving way to worsening inflation, despite the recent softening of oil prices. The Consumer Price Index for all items shows the inflation rate averaged 2.6% a year from 1992 through 2007 but has doubled since January, reaching an annual rate of 5.6% in July (BusinessWeek.com, 8/14/08). By next year, the monthly figure could hit double digits, and the inflation rate for 2009 overall could triple 2007's 2.85%.

I say this not only because I have looked at a broad range of statistics that point in this direction. I also run a private equity investment firm that owns companies in a number of industries -- including restaurants, the manufacture of gardening tools, oil and gas exploration services, and distribution of entertainment products such as books and videos -- that are already being forced to pass price increases on to the consumer.

The skyrocketing price of oil is obviously a central element in the accelerating price spiral. But a sea change in China's role (BusinessWeek, 6/19/08) is beginning to have a huge impact as well.

Increasing Commodities Pricing

Oil almost doubled in price, from $78.21 in July 2007 for a barrel of benchmark crude, to $145, where it peaked before dipping below $120. But from a longer perspective, oil sold for about $30 a barrel during 2003 and much of 2004. Thus it has actually quadrupled in five years. Coal, traditionally volatile, sold for about $30 a ton during 2003, peaked briefly at $63 in 2004, and went for $45.25 at the end of July 2007. A year later it hit $139.50 before slipping back a bit. It has tripled in 12 months.

Copper, another basic commodity, went from 82% a pound in July 2003 to $1.14 a year later, and to $3.72 by the end of last month. That's an increase of 350% over five years. The price of steel has climbed from under $240 a ton for hot-rolled steel coil throughout most of 2003 to $1,125 a ton last month, quadrupling in five years.

Grains have also soared in price (BusinessWeek.com, 7/18/08). U.S. corn prices jumped from $3.01 a bushel in July 2007 to $5.37 one year later. Wheat doubled from $3.05 a bushel in July 2006 to $6.02 last month. A Midwestern bakery owned by one of our portfolio companies turns out 13 million pies a year. The cost of ingredients of a standard pie jumped 100%, from $1.20 a year ago to $2.40 today.

In every sector, cost increases are so large and pervasive that producers who might once have tried to absorb or work around them are passing them on to customers as fast as they can. Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW - News) recently announced successive price increases of 20% and 25%, plus freight surcharges, saying energy and feedstock costs had risen fourfold in five years.

China's Role

With commodity costs rising for so long, why are we feeling the impact so suddenly?

The answer is that China can no longer bail us out with low-cost manufacturing. For years, American manufacturers and retailers offset rising costs by sourcing more products from China, where they could be made cheaply. That kept prices down for American consumers and also restrained pressures on wages, abetting price stability. But now costs are rising quickly in China, too (BusinessWeek.com, 8/12/08).

The Chinese government, under pressure from the U.S., let its currency float upward by 21% against the dollar since depegging it in July 2005. It also increased its value-added tax by 11%, and removed rebates of the tax for most exporters. New labor laws, coupled with a tightening market for skilled workers, have pushed up labor costs by about 50% over the last three years. Meanwhile, Chinese producer prices rose by 10% in July, the fastest rate of increase since 1996. As a result, Chinese producers are demanding -- and getting -- price increases of 20% to 25% on goods they make and sell to U.S. customers.

Without the Chinese life preserver, prices at the big-box American retailers are likely to be soaring in the near future, and Chinese manufactured parts and components that go into U.S. cars and appliances are likely to experience similar gains.

Admitting We Have a Problem

Most Americans will have to tighten their belts and accept lower living standards unless this inflationary spiral can be stopped. There will be pain -- higher prices and a weaker economy, resulting in fewer jobs. Meanwhile, millions of Americans who are already feeling poorer because of falling home values and a soft economy will be further pinched by higher prices for heating oil, groceries, clothing, autos and appliances. Labor is unlikely to remain so quiescent, particularly as the expectation of inflation becomes clear.

The federal government and the Federal Reserve will be under pressure to take tough and politically painful steps to curb this inflation, including strengthening the dollar, raising interest rates, and tightening credit. But the Fed's ability to raise rates is constrained -- it needs to keep rates low to manage the mortgage-backed bond mess.

The first step in solving the problem is to recognize that we have one -- and it is serious. No American housewife has any doubts about that. Our policymakers shouldn't, either.

http://www3.uakron.edu/

Children and Television

Questions to Ponder:
1.  What do you like to watch on TV?
2.  How many hours a week do you think preschool kids watch TV?  School age kids?  Adolescents?
        (Answers, 30 hours, 26 hours, 27 hours)
3.  What are some ways that television influences children?  Positive?  Negative?

The Statistics
1.  The average child is likely to have watched 8,000 TV murders and more than 100,000 acts
    of violence on TV by the end of sixth grade.

2.  The most violent period of daily TV programming is 6:00 to 9:00 a.m.
    Next most violent time is 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.

3.  Cartoons contain about 25 acts of violence per hour.

4.  The average TV viewing child sees 30,000 commercials each year.

5.  Up to 80% of prime time shows have violent episodes.

6.  At the end of your life you will have spent about 10 years watching television.

Note - Television exists primarily to sell us products.
The first television ad was shown at the end of the 1940s and cost $9.00.
Last year’s Superbowl ads cost $1.5 million for 30 seconds.

Negative Influence of Television on Children

    Decades of research from sources such as the Surgeon General, National Commission on the Causes and Prevention of Violence, National Institute of Mental Health, American Medical Association, U. S. Centers for Disease Control, American
Psychological Association, among others, have found links between screen violence and violent behavior.

    We have to keep in mind that children are taking in information all the time.  The child who is exposed to violence is more likely to behave in an aggressive way.  While television alone cannot be said to be the cause of violent behavior, but children who may be exposed to violence in the home, live in an area where violence occurs, watches violence on television and in the movies is a child who is at much greater risk for behaving violently than children who do not experience these things.

    We also have to keep in mind that because children spend so much time watching TV, it is a big influence on their attitudes and beliefs.  Children who watch violent programs have been found to behave and play more aggressively with siblings, friends, classmates.  Children see on television that it is all right to use violence if you are a police officer or super hero or power ranger.  And that it is all right to break moral codes if you are fighting against evildoers.  On television children see that it takes only 30 or 60 minutes to sort through a problem and solve it.

    Advertising that encourages heavily sugared foods has an adverse effect on children’s nutritional beliefs and diets.  Young children do not understand that sugary foods are detrimental to health; they also do not understand disclaimers in ads (i.e., that you should eat this food as part of a balanced breakfast - they don’t know what “balanced breakfast” means).  Young children can’t tell the difference between the program and the commercial.

     Children who watch a lot of television don’t read as much as other children and don’t spend as much time on homework.  Television is partially blamed for lower scores on national achievement tests and the fact that kids don’t do as well in math or reading as they did in years past.  Children who sit in front of the television usually eat while they do this; generally snacks that are high in sugar and are empty calories.  While watching television the child is passive, not getting any exercise of burning off energy.

Note - Before people in the Fiji Islands got TV (fairly recently), the girls had rounded bodies and were happy with their bodies; since TV, Fiji Islanders are seeing many incidences of eating disorders, dissatisfaction with their bodies among its younger women and girls.

Note - There was a documentary on TV in the 1970s about the last town in North America to get television.  Before TV, people spent time out on their porches at night, talking and interacting with the neighbors, lots of community interaction, kids did well in school.  After TV introduced, people stayed in their homes at night, much less interaction with neighbors, more isolation, children’s grades started falling.

The portrayal of families, minorities, and women on TV is sometimes very unrealistic.  There is less dignity shown to minorities; women in music videos are frequently shown as sexual objects or as victims or with the threat of violence menacing them.  We have to realize that children are developing beliefs partly from what they see on TV.

Positive Influence of Television on Children

     Most successful educational program for children is Sesame Street.  Began in 1969, its goal was to promote the intellectual growth of preschoolers, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.  Sesame Street is viewed regularly by about 60% of children between 2 and 3 years of age.  Regular viewing of SS increases children’s learning of numbers, letters and cognitive skills such as sorting and classification.  These effects are seen across all ethnic, gender and racial lines.

    Research has also shown that viewing SS between 3 and 5 years of age leads to improved vocabulary.  Children learn the most from segments that give them time to respond, clap, or sing along; from segments that are repeated in a show and throughout the season; and from those skits that the find entertaining.

    Watching programs such as SS, Barney, Mr. Rogers Neighborhood has been shown to increase impulse control and concentration among preschoolers. When children view prosocial behaviors on television, they are likely to repeat those behaviors among their friends, classmates, siblings.

The Role of Parents in Helping Children Use Television Wisely

1.  Set limits
2.  Eliminate some television viewing
3.  Plan
4.  Participate
5.  Choose programming wisely
6.  Analyze commercials
7.  Express your views

Coping with Violence on TV

1.  Watch at least one episode of the program the child watches to know how violent it is.
 2.  When viewing TV together, discuss the violence with the child.
    Talk about why the violence happened and how painful it is.  Ask the child how conflict can be resolved without violence.
3.  Explain to the child how violence on TV shows is faked.
4.  Encourage children to watch programs with characters who cooperate, help and care for each other.
    These programs have been shown to influence children in a positive way.

Applying TV to Real Life

1.  Ask children to compare what they see on the screen with people, places and events they know firsthand,
    have read about or have studied in school.
2.  Encourage children to read newspapers, listen to the radio, talk to adults about their work, or meet people form
    different ethnic or social backgrounds.
3.  Tell children what is real and what is make believe on TV.  Explain how TV uses stunt people, camera zooms,
        dream sequences and animation to create fantasy.
4.  Explain to the child your family’s values with regard to sex, alcohol and drugs.

-Susan D. Witt, Ph.D.

http://www3.uakron.edu/witt/flm/arguing.htm

Arguing Effectively: How to stop fighting and learn positive conflict resolution techniques.
        -* or *-
Conflict Management for Dummies
after Michael Crichton

If you want to stop arguing altogether, and never have another fight with your sweetie pie - here's what you do:
Leave your sweetheart and never - ever go back.

On the other hand, if you want to preserve your marriage, make it work better, and be happy more than you are sad, then here's some tips on how to fight hard, fight fair, and win!!!!

That is:
 1. if you are right, and
 2. if both you and your opponent are truthful with each other and yourselves.

Verbal fighting is like physical combat.  It requires skill.  It requires knowledge of human nature, the ability to strategize, and a sense of fair play. Think of it as a survival skill. Not very many people are good at arguing, although most people think they are great at it.

One can become very good at it, although almost nobody is, because almost 
NOBODY THINKS IT IS NECESSARY TO LEARN ...THE FUNDAMENTALS.
Most people just jump into a domestic fight, adopting the fighting style of their parents.
If this approach is working for you, then you don't need information.

But if you find that you are coming off badly in your fights
     - if you are uncomfortable fighting,
     - if you avoid fights or dread them,
     - if you are afraid of seriously hurting your opponent
 THEN LISTEN UP!

There are some BIG DIFFERENCES in the way men and women approach life and understand themselves.

Big Difference #1 - When in a relationship, Women believe that as long as a couple is talking about their problems, then the relationship is working just fine, while Men believe that whenever a couple is talking about their problems, then the relationship is tetering on the brink of destruction.

This Difference is highly correlated to:

Big Difference #2 - When it comes to perception, Women tend to see the world as a series of ongoing processes that change shape and function over time, while Men tend to see the world as a series of events, each one  finite and having definite beginnings, middles, and ends.

Finally - Big Difference #3 - Men and Women are almost completely ignorant of these  basic differences between them.

Keeping these differences in mind throughout the reminder of my talk will help in your understanding of how fighting can actually make a relationship a better one.

On to Fighting in several steps:

The first rule of domestic fighting is:

1. RESPOND TO THE CHALLENGE - Most people make fatal errors in the first 30 seconds because they opt for the time-honored strategy of not taking their partner seriously:

 --"Here he comes SPOILING for a fight" you say to yourself.
 -- Exasperated, you turn to him and say with a sigh, "What is it now? "Do we have to talk about this right now?"

 The fight is over - you just lost. Do yourself a favor when you see a fight coming: deal with it right then and there.
 Stop whatever you are doing at the time and deal with this angry person.  Take YOUR PARTNER SERIOUSLY!

2. PAY ATTENTION! - In a domestic quarrel, battle lines constantly, from moment to moment, and they take every ounce of energy and intelligence you have, so don't be glancing through the newspaper or watching television.  Put it down, turn it off and stay on your toes.  Pay attention as if you were driving 200 mph into the urn at the Indianapolis 500.

3. Find out what kind of fight are you having?
 

DISAGREEMENTS<---->A COMBINATION<----->DISAGREEMENTS
ABOUT ACTION <---->  OF THE TWO <----->ABOUT FEELINGS

 At one end of the spectrum there's a disagreement about action.   "You want to go out for the evening - she wants to stay home."  or "you want kids - She doesn't"
At the other end there's disagreements about feelings.  She feels neglected, you feel overworked.  You feel slighted, she feels pressure.  You want closeness, she wants elbow room.

Most fights are a blend of the two extremes.

Disputes about action are best resolved by acknowledging the injured feelings.
You say, "I'm sorry you feel that way",
and the fight is over - You won.
There isn't anything to do, and sometimes we make the mistake of trying to do something anyway.
This only irritates the injured one, so don't try to do much.

Disputes about action eventually require concrete action solutions.  If she want's to move to a new apartment, your being sorry she feels that way doesn't solve anything.   Now you do something.

4. Decide whether or not you want to fight now, postpone it, or avoid fighting altogether.
Postponing
    - 97% of late night fights never make it to the following morning (feelings fights).
        So if the fight starts late at night -> make arrangements to come to work late the next morning and fight then.
    - Make a rule that no fighting can take place if any drugs or alcohol has been consumed by either person.
    - Negotiated rules are great for keeping down violence and making things follow a sort of logic.

If he responds to your plea for postponement with, "Like hell, I'm mad now!"  Then we fight - > but You have one advantage  because he's insisting on fighting and is brushing off one of your couple rules about fighting.
He's irrational and out of control and can't win.

Avoiding the fight - because you are tired, busy or just don't want to fight:
    - Don't match emotions - just because she's mad mean you are too.  For example:

    She walks into the room and says furiously, "Why didn't you call today like  you said you would?"
    Your understanding of the situation is that you said you'd TRY to call, but you got busy and COULDN'T call.
    Besides I sent her flowers last week and I say I love you in front of other people -> What is this b.s. now?

Here are some options to guarantee a fight:
  -"I can do without this now"            -fight
  -"I didn't say I'd call"                -fight
  -"I only said I'd try to call"          -fight
  -"What is the big deal                  -fight
  -"I do a lot for you - miss one call?"  -fight

Avoid the fight by FORGETTING WHO IS RIGHT You may know in your heart you are right.  You clearly remember that you EXPLICITLY did not promise to call.  In FACT -> you told her you had a busy, unpredictable day ahead and you'd try to call.  So she's off base about your not calling and her anger is unwarranted.  She's accused you unjustly and you'd like to set her straight.

Go ahead -> But it will result in a fight, because explaining how dumb she is will just make her feelings worse.
Now she'll feel Angry and Stupid.  She'll have no place to put these feelings EXCEPT ON YOU.

5. KISS THE HURT -> 80% of what an angry, wounded person wants is acknowledgment and sympathy. Some variation of, "I see you're angry and I am sorry you are upset."  Some variation of kissing the hurt and making it all better.

See the situation from the other persons point of view. Whatever you actually said this morning, she went away thinking that you were going to call her -> looking forward to your call -> and when it never came, she felt slighted and angry.

Kiss the hurt and make it better. It will sound weak and unmanly at first, and will sound like you are accepting blame but just do it!

6. SYMPATHIZE WITHOUT ACCEPTING BLAME
"Honey, I'm sorry you felt disappointed.  I'd never want you to feel that way.  I guess we misunderstood each other this morning.  I thought I only said I'd try to call, but I know how bad it feels to wait all day for something that happens.  It feels lousy.  I'm sorry it happened.

Notice you are being sympathetic to her position without ever accepting blame for it. Good Deal.  This approach has stunning power.

7. USE REPETITION TO WEAR DOWN THE OPPONENT.

He: "I'm sorry you feel so bad, honey."
 She: "Don't call me honey!"
He: "I'm sorry you feel so bad, Jennifer."
 She: "No, you're not!"
He: "Yes, I am.  It must have felt terrible"
 She: "Yes it did"
He: "Jen. I'd never want you to feel that way.  I'm really sorry it happened."
 She: "Well, I was waiting and waiting ... putting my life on hold."

If you keep expressing your sympathy in a genuine, honest way, it's unlikely that she can press onward to a fight ...
Unless you also want to have a fight:

HAVING THE FIGHT:
Let's suppose it is time for a fight, a fight about something tangible.   Anything that gets the fighters to deal with the real point of the relationship is a good thing.

Here's the rules:

  •  1. No drugs or alcohol. None - not one beer, not one hit. Fighting is serious business, and the rules should be the same for driving a car or operating dangerous machinery.
  •  2. No physical violence - no threat of physical violence. On either side, no throwing things, no sweeping stuff off the desk, no slamming doors, no hitting, slapping, kicking, or biting.  First of all, it is flat wrong to hit another person.  Second, if she hits you, people will say you must have deserved it, If the male hits the female -> he's a brute.  and Third -> In an atmosphere where violence is a possibility, people may feel intimidated, or worry that their words or gestures are unfairly intimidating, thus you will use restraint your verbal fighting.   If someone retreats in fear (real or pretend) that you are going to hit them, it will change the context of the fight that instant. Before it was just an argument, now it's whether or not she is justified in worrying that you'd hit her.
  • 3. Respect Your Opponent. Never laugh at her (no matter how idiotic you find what she is saying.  Not a laugh, snicker, not a smile.
    •   Don't imitate her speech patterns or body movements.
    •   Don't trivialize her verbal positions.
    •   Don't characterize her -> As in: "Let me tell you what your problem really is!"
    •   Don't tell her what kind of person she is.

   1. You wouldn't like it of she did this to you.
   2. In a fight, your opinion of her is:

    a. She always pulls this shit
    b. She's really stupid
    c. She has no self-control
    d. All her friends who agree with her are stupid too.
    e. She has no respect for you or your problems.
    f. She never listens to you
    g. She doesn't appreciate what you do for her
    h. You wish you'd never met her.

You won't feel this way in a few hours, so don't express the feelings now. Expressing these views will inflame your opponent and, therefore, obscure the  fight.

 4. Don't Get Mad.  FIND A WAY NOT TO BE ANGRY. Detach a little.

 5. Admit to minor accusations.  You will be inclined to deny everything in the attempt to survive the slightest blow:

Wrong
 She: You are so fussy about your clothes.
  He:  I am not
 She: Yes you are, you think you are Gods gift to the fashion business.
  He: NO I don't - FIGHT

 Right
 She: You are so fussy about your clothes.
  He: Yes, I am. So what? I like to feel well dressed. It's true, I enjoy feeling well dressed.

Also, minor accusations are just the precursor of what the impending fight is really about.  Make it hard for your opponent to get angry too.  Get down to it and the fight will not last as long.

Admissions also help when your opponent is characterizing you:
He: "You are so stupid and you have no self control, and You don't appreciate anything I do for you."
She: "That's right, I don't.  Right now, I don't appreciate anything about you. 
    Because we are having this fight.  Can we get on with it?"

6. Don't Threaten. -> Threats are evasions of the true issue.
Threats are like time outs - in the course of a fight, one says, If you don't stop I'm leaving - How dare you threaten to leave me after all we've been through!!!   They argue about the threat for a while -> then return to the original fight.
Threats are a waste of time and effort. Don't make them and DON'T RESPOND TO THEM.

7. Don't leave the fight without permission. NOT IN THOUGHT -> WORD -> OR DEED.
 Stay in there!  and if you have to leave -> make it clear when you'll be back to finish.

8. Pay attention to subtext -> The important truth about fighting is that we don't always know what we are angry about.  Sometimes we use the fight to find out.

9. Restate positions during the fight.
 It is common to feel that the other isn't listening, so you keep repeating the same point until your opponent get angrier –

"I heard you, darn it! I'm not a child!"
 Okay -> if you heard me, tell me what I just said. Say it back to me.
Without sarcasm or mocking tone of voice.
When he does, correct any errors (if he wasn't listening) and ask him to say it again.
If he was listening -> say your are sorry, but this stuff is really important to me.

You can volunteer to restate her position , "Let me get this straight ..."  as honestly and sincerely as possible.
Chances are, if you play back her accusations without inflammatory remarks or inflection - she might see any real weaknesses in her own logic and she'll make some adjustments.

10. Ask for outcomes: "What can we do about this problem now."
 Keep alert for your tendency to give in too quick, or to give up too much for the sake of ending the fight.
 If you can get her to tell you what she wants, and then get a hug and a kiss -> you are really done with the fight.

11. Fight clean – Set your intention in a fight and know your limits.  Keep on track.  Talk about yourself (how it makes you feel to fight)  Tell her how you feel at the moment.

And Tell the Truth (as far as it is relevant to this fight).

 "Yes, I do look at other women sometimes." - Her problem now
 "I promised to call but I just forgot" - her problem
 "I don't want to move, I like it here" - her problem

 Don't expect to win -> Expect to get things out in the open.

http://niniane.org/

Differences Between Men and Women

(found long ago on Internet, original author unknown, applauded by Niniane Wang)

Relationships

First of all, a man does not call a relationship a relationship -- He refers to it as "the time when me and Suzie was doing it on a semi-regular basis." When a relationship ends, a woman will cry and pour her heart out to her girlfriends and she will write a poem titled "All Men Are Idiots." Then she will get on with her life.

A man has a little more trouble letting go. Six months after the break-up, at 3:30 a.m. on a Saturday night, he will call and say, "I just wanted to let you know you ruined my life and I'll never forgive you and I hate you and you're a total whore. But I want you to know there's always a chance for us." This is known as the "I Hate You/I Love You - Drunken Phone Call." 99% of all men have placed at least one such call. There are community colleges that offer courses to help men get over this need. Alas, these classes rarely prove effective.

Sex

Women prefer 30 - 45 minutes of foreplay. Men prefer 30 - 45 seconds of foreplay. Men consider driving back to her place as part of the foreplay.

Maturity

Women mature much faster then men. Most 17-year-old females can function as adults. Most 17-year-old males are still trading baseball cards and giving each other wedgies after gym class. This is why high school romances rarely work.

Hats

Women look good in hats; men look like dinks.

Comedy

Let's say a small group of men and women are in a room, watching television, and an episode of "The Three Stooges" comes on. Immediately, the men will get very excited; they will laugh uproariously, and even try to imitate the actions of Curly, man's favorite stooge. The women will roll their eyes and groan and wait it out.

Handwriting

To their credit, men do not decorate their penmanship. They just chicken-scratch. Women use scented, colored stationary and they dot their "i's" with circles and hearts. Women use ridiculously large loops in their "p's" and "g's". It is a royal pain to read a note from a woman. Even when she's dumping you, she'll put a smiley face at the end of the note.

Bathrooms

A man has at most 6 items in his bathroom -- a toothbrush, toothpaste, shaving cream, razor, a bar of Dial soap, and a towel from the Holiday Inn. The average number of items in a typical woman's bathroom is 437. A man would not be able to identify most of these items.

Magazines

Men's magazines often feature pictures of naked ladies. Women's magazines also feature pictures of naked ladies. This is because the female body is a beautiful work of art, while the male body is hairy and lumpy and should not be seen by the light of day.

Groceries

A woman makes a list of things she needs and then goes to the store and buys these things. A man waits until the only items left in his fridge are half a lemon and something turning green. Then he goes grocery shopping. He buys everything that looks good. By the time a man reaches the checkout counter, his cart is packed tighter than the Clampett's car on the Beverly Hillbillies. Of course, this will not stop him from going to the 10-items-or-less lane.

Cats

Women love cats. Men say they love cats, but when women aren't looking, men kick cats.

Jewelry
Women look nice when they wear jewelry. A man can get away with wearing one ring, and that's it. Any more than that and he will look like a lounge singer named Vic.

Menopause

When a woman reaches menopause, she goes through a variety of complicated emotional and psychological, and biological changes. The nature and degree of these changes varies with the individual. Menopause in men provokes a uniform reaction -- he buys aviator glasses, a snazzy French cap and leather driving gloves and goes shopping for a Porsche.

The Telephone

Men see the telephone as a communications tool. They use the telephone to send short messages to other people. A woman can visit her girlfriend for two weeks, and upon returning home, she will call the same friend and they will talk for three hours.

Low Blows

Let's say a man and woman are watching a boxing match on television. One of the fighters is felled by a low blow. The woman says, "Oh, gee. That must hurt." The man doubles over and actually feels pain.

Admitting Mistakes

Women will sometimes admit making a mistake. The last man who admitted he was wrong was General George Custer.

Richard Gere (see also -- Patrick Swayze)

Women like Richard Gere because he is sexy in a dangerous way. Men hate Richard Gere because he reminds them of that slick guy who works at the health club and dates only married women.

Offspring

A woman knows all about her children. She knows about dentist appointments and soccer games and romances and best friends and favorite foods and secret dreams. A man is vaguely aware of some short people living in the house.

Dressing up

A woman will dress up to go shopping, water the plants, empty the garbage, answer the phone, read a book, or get the mail. A man will dress up for the following: weddings, funerals.

Nudity in Movies

Every actress in the history of movies has had to do a nude scene. This is because every movie in the history of movies has been produced by a 'man'. The only actor who has appeared nude in the movies is Richard Gere. This is another reason why men hate him.

David Letterman

Men think David Letterman is the funniest man on Earth. Women think he is a mean, semi-dorky guy who always has a bad haircut.

Politics

Men love to talk politics, but often forget to do political things such as voting. Women are very happy that another generation of Kennedys is growing up and getting into politics because they will be able to campaign for them and cry on election night.

Locker Rooms

In the locker room, men talk about three things: money, football, and women. They exaggerate about money, they don't know football nearly as well as they think they do, and they fabricate stories about women. Women talk about one thing in the locker room -- sex. And not in abstract terms, either. They are extremely graphic and technical.

Laundry

Women do laundry every couple of days. A man will wear every article of clothing he owns, including his surgical pants that were hip about eight years ago, before he will do the laundry. When he is finally out of clothes, he will wear a dirty sweatshirt inside-out, rent a U-Haul and take his mountain of clothes to the laundromat. Men always expect to meet beautiful women at the laundromat. This is a myth.

Toys

Little girls love to play with toys. Then, when they reach the age of 11 or 12, they lose interest. Men never grow out of their obsession with toys. As they get older, their toys simply become more expensive and impractical. Examples of men's toys: little miniature TV's, car phones, complicated juicers and blenders, graphic equalizers, small robots that serve cocktails on command, video games, anything that blinks, beeps, and requires at least six "D" batteries to operate.

Plants

A woman asks a man to water the plants while she is on vacation. The man waters the plants. The woman comes home five days later to an apartment full of dead plants. No one knows why this happens.

Nicknames

With the exception of female bodybuilders who call each other names like "Ultimate Pecs" and "Big Turk," women eschew the use of nicknames. If Gloria, Suzanne, Deborah, and Michelle get together for lunch, they will call each other Gloria, Suzanne, Deborah, and Michelle. But if Mike, Dave, Rob, and Jack go out for a brewsky, they will affectionately refer to each other as Bullet-Head, Godzilla, Peanut Brain, and Useless.

Mustaches

Some men look good with mustaches. Those men are Tom Selleck and Burt Reynolds. There are no women who look good with mustaches.

http://niniane.org/

Niniane's interpretation of the song "Hotel California" by the Eagles

I listened to and loved this song for many years without understanding the lyrics. While driving down to California on 9/2003, I suddenly had an epiphany where it all made sense. My interpretation follows.

This song is about the temptation and danger of materialism. We are bombarded by societal messages to accumulate material goods, be it fancy cars, or expensive jewelry. We feel drawn to these status symbols, but they also can cause us great unhappiness. 

> On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair
> Warm smell of colitas, rising up through the air

The singer is free and liberated at the start of the song. Highway, isolated desert, wind blowing through his hair: all symbols of freedom. Colitas is marijuana, which of course also symbolizes a liberated mental state. 

> Up ahead in the distance, I saw a shimmering light
> My head grew heavy and my sight grew dim
> I had to stop for the night

The shimmering light is the materialism. It shimmers and glows like gold. The singer feels intoxicated by it. It casts a spell on him. 

> There she stood in the doorway;
> I heard the mission bell
> And I was thinking to myself,
> 'This could be Heaven or this could be Hell'

The doorway is the transition into this new life, of materialism and greed and away from freedom. "She" is his way into this life, whether it be newfound wealth or sudden status. He sees that the world of materialism and flashy possessions could be glamorous (heaven), or it could be torturous. 

> Then she lit up a candle and she showed me the way
> There were voices down the corridor,
> I thought I heard them say... 
> 
> Welcome to the Hotel California
> Such a lovely place
> Such a lovely face
> Plenty of room at the Hotel California
> Any time of year, you can find it here

California represents materialism in many ways. It is the place of the gold rush (lovely place). It has Hollywood (lovely face). People come out to California to try to strike it rich. 

> Her mind is Tiffany-twisted, she got the Mercedes bends

Tiffany's for expensive jewelry, Mercedes for expensive car. Both status symbols. People's perspectives get distorted by these things, which explains the words "twisted" and "bends". I like the wordplay here. 

> She got a lot of pretty, pretty boys, that she calls friends

Arm candy is another status symbol. 

> How they dance in the courtyard, sweet summer sweat.
> Some dance to remember, some dance to forget

All these people are bought into the materialism, the "dance" of pursuing possessions. Some do it to remember back to their childhood or earlier in their life when they had more money. Some go after money to forget about something else more painful in their life. 

> So I called up the Captain,
> 'Please bring me my wine'
> He said, 'We haven't had that spirit here since nineteen sixty nine'

I don't know what this verse means. Various strangers have e-mailed me with their hypotheses. If you have a suggestion, mail me. If you would like to vote for one of the following, you can also mail me.

A. (from Deeparnab C.) 1969 is Woodstock. The spirit means "free spirit", i.e. creativity and freedom, unshackled by money.

B. (from Nathan S.) Christian interpretation. Wine is Jesus's blood. He is in an old Christian church that turned Satanic in 1969. [My note: this makes no sense to me. But at least you could say "spirit" means Holy Spirit in this case.] 

> And still those voices are calling from far away,
> Wake you up in the middle of the night
> Just to hear them say... 
> 
> [chorus]
> 
> Mirrors on the ceiling,
> The pink champagne on ice
> And she said 'We are all just prisoners here, of our own device'

Pink champagne is another symbol of luxury. The last line is saying that we are trapped in the pursuit of wealth, but we did it to ourselves by buying into the idea. 

> And in the master's chambers,
> They gathered for the feast
> They stab it with their steely knives,
> But they just can't kill the beast

The beast is the primal desire within us to go back to freedom, away from the trappings of society. These people who have been suckered in want to kill that part of themselves which still longs for the liberated days, but they can't defeat it. 

> Last thing I remember, I was
> Running for the door
> I had to find the passage back
> To the place I was before

The singer wants to get back to his former, free lifestyle. 

> 'Relax,' said the night man,
> We are programmed to receive.
> You can checkout any time you like,
> but you can never leave!

We are brought up and conditioned by society to be receptive to its messages about status and wealth. We can mentally "check out" and decide to resist those messages, but we can never really get away from them or their strong pull.

So there you have it. Money, status, societal messages, California, getting trapped, hell. How ironic that I figured all this out while driving my U-Haul on my way to move to California.

http://blogoscoped.com/

A “Googler,” as you may know, is what Google employees call themselves (they have other nicknames for specific roles; a noogler is a new Google employee, a gaygler is a gay one, a xoogler is an ex-one, and so on).

http://blogoscoped.com/

3. Tell others about your content

There once was a time when people could add lots of keywords to their page to optimize it for search engines. Today’s search engines – luckily for searchers – aren’t that easily fooled. Instead of looking at your site, Google and others mostly look at other sites to determine your site’s trust... specifically by checking the other site’s links to you. And the more trusted your site is, the higher it ranks for a variety of search queries. So how do you get others to link to you? Well, you already got great content (point 1 above), and you made it very accessible so it’s easy to link to (point 2 above). Now what’s left is to get the word out so others may feel inspired to link to you; not out of pity, not because you promise a link in return, and not because you paid them, but because they consider a page of yours just right for their visitors. So...

  • Get involved offline! Go to conferences, trade shows, and every other place where people might be interested to get to know about your website.
  • Get involved online! Sign-up for mailing list of your site’s topic, participate in newsgroups and web forums of your topic, look for online directories (like the Open Directory) dealing with sites like yours, contact webmasters and bloggers who maintain sites in your topic area. But don’t just get involved to promote your site, as such selfishness is deemed “spam”. Instead, take time to help others... for example, you may want to offer another site to write an article for them. Just pasting your URL everywhere you go is littering the online world – and you may end up being permanently kicked out of the places in which you littered.
  • Get involved everywhere else! Maybe there’s a TV show which discusses websites? Well, it won’t hurt if you drop them an email, introducing them to your site. Be creative in finding people that might be happy to hear about your site, be it a newspaper, radio show, magazine, and what-not. To get a mention in any of these places, it always helps if you do something wacky (run across the football field naked, your site’s name printed on your back) or otherwise noteworthy (write a book, dressed or naked, whichever you prefer). To stick with the topic of dog supplies, you might want to train your dog to bark the name of your web site, and then upload the whole thing to a video sharing site like YouTube.
  • If you got some money to spare, buy ads on search engines, like Google AdWords. While they’re never as effective as ranking well in the real search result, they can help get the word out while your site is still in its infancy.

http://blogoscoped.com/

The Google Robot FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Last update: November 1st, 2030

What are Google Robots?

Google Robots are our human-like machines that walk the earth to record information. They do no harm, and they do not invade your privacy.

What are Google Robots good for?

Our Google Life search website is powered by the Google Robot crawler program. On the Google Life website at life.google.com, you can:

  • Find out what menus the local restaurant offers at what prices
  • See a perfect 3D shape of all houses in your city
  • Know how crowded the bar is you want to go to tonight
  • Know what items to find at your local mall
  • Find out if your library has a certain book available (Also see: What's a book?)
  • Know what you said and who you met 3 weeks ago (this feature is available only to My Public Life™ subscribers)
  • Locate your friends (this feature is only available if your friends subscribed to My Public Life™)
  • And much more!

I saw a Google Robot entering a library and reading books in it. Is that legal?

Our Google Robots do not record private information. As the books in a library are considered to be public, our Google Robots reserve the right to scan them. However, we do respect the copyright of individual works, and will only show a "fair use" portion on our website.

What happened to other robotic devices, such as the Google Keyhole satellite program, or the Google Print project?

We still use specific robotic devices to record specific information. For example, our Google Robots do not surf the web, yet; this part of the equation is still left to the so-called Googlebot. Also, we still take satellite snapshots of the earth. However, it already shows that Google Robots give a far more detailed 3-dimensional picture of the earth they're walking.

How much do I need to pay to access information the Google Robot recorded?

As you may know, the Google Life Subscription service enables you to access all of Google's information for a yearly subscription fee. If you are not subscribed, you can still use about 80% of our services – our revenue from those comes from the related ads attached to this information.

How many Google Robots walk the earth?

The last number we officially confirmed was 10 million. However, we expanded since then.

Can Google Robots fly?

At this moment, no, but we're constantly working to improve the Google Robot feature range.

Does the Google Robot respect my privacy?

Yes! In fact, privacy (and copyright) was our main focus when originally developing the Google Robot. The Google Robot will not record information such as:

  • Private chatter (even when taking place on a public place, such as a mall)
  • Diaries, letters or other records as found in the trash (even though the copyright law of some countries permits this, it is our philosophy to not make copies of such data)
  • Telephone calls
  • Private messages you send through the Google Mail, Google Talk, or Google Adult VirtualConnect service, unless you subscribed to the My Public Life™ program
  • Information that can be seen by looking through a window, into a house's garden, etc.
  • Any other information law deems private

So what about the My Public Life™ program?

The My Public Life™ program is still in Beta. It enables subscribers to earn money through our AdSense for Life program. If you agree to make your personal talks with friends, your diary entries, your living room and such public, you can in return earn a percentage of the money we make by putting ads onto this information on our public websites. Google Robots at all time know who is a subsriber to the My Public Life™ program, and who isn't. Consequently, they will only follow those humans who are.

A Google Robot was unwilling to help me find my lost car keys. Why?

As trying to locate your keys may involve a violation of your privacy, only subscribers of the My Public Life™ program may use this feature.

Can I opt-out of the My Public Life™ program?

You can opt-out of the program at any time, upon which we will stop recording new information from you and your life. However, please note that the past information, as recorded with your agreement, will still be available on our site for people to search through.

I'm a subscriber of the My Public Life™ program, and a Google Robot recorded what I said yesterday. Who owns the copyright to my speech?

You will retain full copyright to what you say, unless you said it in a public speech.

I heard stories of Google Robots attacking innocent people. Is that true?

No. A Google Robot, by definition of its internal software program, can never harm a human person unless out of self-defense. Under the International Robots Rights Act of 2022, robotic self-defense is a basic right of all robots. Google Robots have specific routines to ensure they are not harmed by malicious users.

I've seen a Google Robot in a DVD shop staring at the backside of a DVD for half a minute, then putting it back in the shelf. Why?

Our Google Robots try to record as much information as possible, and this includes movies. As you may know, Google Robots have a micro laser to read from storage devices such as DVDs, CD-ROMs, or even exotic devices from the 1980s (people at that time used so-called "floppy discs," "music tapes," or "gramophone records"). Additionally, a Google Robot may visit the cinema, watch TV, go to a concert, or attend a public reading.

How many languages do Google Robots speak?

At the moment, Google Robots – thanks to our machine translation efforts – speak 95 different languages fluently, including English, French, Spanish, German, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, and many more. We are updating our Google Robots with new "street lingo" every 1-2 weeks.

I can't find any of Daniel H. Wilson's books in your Google Life search program. For example, the book "How To Survive a Robot Uprising" is missing. Why?

We reserve the right to exclude such information from the Google Life program which may in turn be used for malicious use of our Google Robots. Please understand that a Google Robot is a complex device which can have low-level emotions, fears, hopes and such. Destroy a Google Robot, and you destroyed an (albeit lower) life form.

Is the Google Robot hardware ever checked and updated?

Google Robots return to a Google Warehouse every third night to undergo a routine check. We have plans for the future to let Google Robots take care of each other and check for hardware failures of their colleagues.

I want to talk to a Google Robot and tell him of my problems and more. May I?

Yes! We appreciate it if you share information with a Google Robot. Please note that anything you directly tell to a Google Robot will be automatically indexed in our Google Life search program and be made publicly available.

I heard stories of a Google Robot not helping a woman who was attacked by a robber, even though the robot was in short distance of the crime scene. Why don't Google Robots help?

We are constantly trying to improve the Google Robots program. As you may know, Google Robots receive constant software updates based on our observations of their acts. A Google Robot at no time will attack another human unless out of self-defense. This includes incidences in which the Google Robot has reason to believe another human is acting against the law. We appreciate your feedback on this issue and in some countries, already work together with the local police to find ways of optimizing this behavior.

A Google Robot stepped on my toe! Who can I complain to?

We are sorry for incidences of a Google Robot bumping into you, stepping on your toe, speaking up without being asked, or similar mishaps. We are constantly working to improve the audio-visual and haptic input-output mechanisms of our robots' positronic digibrains. In other words, we're teaching 'em manners!

Is a Google Robot stronger than a human?

Technically, no. E.g., a Google Robot cannot lift very heavy objects at this time. However, if a Google Robot is ever forced to fight a human – which only happens when the Google Robot's self-defense program is activated by malicious use – the Google Robot would easily win by activating its self-defense devices. Please understand that for security reasons, we do not list these self-defense devices in detail here.

How do I auction my stuff to a Google Robot?

As part of our Google Auction program, you can give anything (your books, your electronic devices, your car) to a Google Robot you meet. Should the Google Robot be able to sell it, you will be billed a commission to your Google Wallet account. In the meantime, your items will be safely stored in a Google Warehouse.

How much does a Google Robot weigh?

Google Robots don't like to talk about their weight! But seriously, all of our Series 1 models weigh approximately 60 kg. Our series 2 models weigh approximately 50 kg, even though they are able to run faster, read books quicker, climb better, and jump higher.

I have a feeling of being watched by a Google Robot. What about my privacy?

Again, we take great measures to ensure no privacy is ever invaded. Even if there is a Google Robot next to you, it doesn't mean he records everything you say. You can think of him as a quiet neighbor doing gardening work. Do you suspect your neighbor to spy on your life... just because he's within a short distance of you?

Do Google Robots record everything?

Google Robots, at this time, record sound, imagery, and object shapes (touch), but do not yet record DNA, chemical substances, or fragrances. We are working on bringing a unified fragrance encoding standard to the web, and our prototype computer mouse already emits 2 million different fragrances including variations of honey, tobacco, and wood. We are also working on food testing robots. Please go to the Google Robots homepage at robots.google.com for the latest news and updates.

I still feel like a Google Robot invaded my privacy or breached a copyright. Where do I go to?

You can send privacy or copyright complaints to the following address:

Google, Inc.
Attn: Google Legal Support, DMCA Complaints
220 Far Earth District
Moonlake, Moon 105

Please include the Google Robot serial number (a Google Robot will always tell you his 16-digit serial number upon being asked), and if possible, the time when this happened. It is not necessary to give us further details about the location or setting, as naturally our Google Robot already recorded this information.

I have found a seemingly dead Google Robot. What should I do?

Please inform the Google authorities by sending an email to dead-robot@google.com. We try our best to remove the malfunctioning Google Robot as quick as possible. Normally, Google records malfunctioning Google Robot programs and automatically removes such machinery from the streets via the help of another Google Robot.

There's an urban legend of a Google Robot serial killer. What do you make of that?

We heard this story too, and as all other urban legends, there's not a bit of truth in it.

Why don't Google Robots look just like humans?

It was not a technical decision to make Google Robots look unlike humans, even though they are all to some extent human-like. We did this on purpose to easily allow you to separate a Google Robot from a human. We are running experimental programs in some cities in the US, as well as on Mars, with specialized Google Robot series which may not look like the robots you know.

I never saw a Google Robot with a digital camera. Why not?

A Google Robot's eyes are, in fact, digital cameras. We can record video as well as still imagery. Additionally, a Google Robot can record 3-dimensional imagery.

Under the Patriot Act IV, are you forced to share information crawled by Google Robots with agencies such as the CIA or NSA?

We are sorry, but at this moment we cannot comment on government relationships. We hope you understand. Note that as part of our company motto, "Don't be too evil," we take your privacy concerns very seriously.

8/17/2008 8:57 AM

Hi, Harv. Here is a story you might enjoy.  –Eugene Borg

The FBI had an opening for an assassin. After all the background checks, interviews and testing were done, there were 3 finalists; two men and a woman.

For the final test, the FBI agents took one of the men to a large metal door and handed him a gun. "We must know that you will follow your instructions no matter what the circumstances."

Inside the room you will find your wife sitting in a chair . . . Kill her!!'

The first man said, "You can't be serious. I could never shoot my wife."

The agent said, "Then you're not the right man for this job. Take your wife and go home."

The second man was given the same instructions. He took the gun and went into the room. All was quiet for about 5 minutes. The man came out with tears in his eyes, "I tried, but I can't kill my wife."

The agent said, "You don't have what it takes. Take your wife home."

Finally, it was the woman's turn.. She was given the same instructions, to kill her husband. She took the gun and went into the room. Shots were heard, one after another. They heard screaming, crashing, banging on the walls.

After a few minutes, all was quiet. The door opened slowly and there stood the woman, wiping the sweat from her brow. "This gun is loaded with blanks", she said. "I had to beat him to death with the chair."

MORAL: Women are crazy!

Don't mess with them.

http://www.ft.com/

Twenty-one years ago, I reviewed on these pages the first biography of Simone de Beauvoir, by Claude Francis and Fernande Gontier, published just after her death in 1986. Focusing, inevitably, on her relationship with Jean-Paul Sartre, it was a work of romantic hagiography: “The two writers hid themselves more deeply in the chestnut groves. The most singular love story of the 20th century had begun.”

But soon after it appeared, a stash of de Beauvoir’s letters to Sartre, which she had claimed lost, revealed the celebrated partnership as a web of lies and manipulation, sustained by de Beauvoir’s role as pimp and procurer, supplying the icy Sartre with young girls to deflower – the only aspect of sex he really enjoyed – and engaging in erotic triangles that led third parties to breakdown or suicide.

In a 21st century caught between biological determinism and yummy mummies, de Beauvoir’s assertion that “one is not born a woman, one becomes one,” no longer resonates. De Beauvoir’s entire life, as Carole Seymour-Jones shows vividly in A Dangerous Liaison, was an appalled response to the hypocrisies of bourgeois marriage which she witnessed as an intelligent daughter, born in 1908, in stiff, belle époque Paris. Her pact with Sartre in 1929, committing to an “essential” relationship within which each was free to have “contingent” liaisons, was a bold experiment in rewriting the marriage contract for the 20th century.

The relationship was regarded in the 1960s and 1970s as a template. But even aside from the jealousy, loneliness and misery it brought de Beauvoir as she tried to balance loyalty to Sartre with ruthless use of other lovers, it was never going to be representative because de Beauvoir had a blind spot: she viewed maternity and children so bleakly that they never entered her scale of values. Seymour-Jones is eloquent on the fall-out from this . In old age both de Beauvoir and Sartre adopted rival grown-up daughters, Sylvie le Bon de Beauvoir and Arlette Elkaďm Sartre, to nurse them, and their reputations, through life and posterity.

Arlette describes Sartre as “a little man” on the sidelines, a puny coward who morphs into an increasingly malevolent spectre. Almost a Vichy collaborator (he used to sit among occupying Nazi officers extolling his debt to German culture), Sartre reinvented himself in 1945 as a post-Resistance intellectual.

In fact, he and de Beauvoir had a cushy war. Among their conquests was a Jewish schoolgirl, Bianca Bienenfeld, whom they abandoned in 1940. De Beauvoir befriended her, then Sartre led her to the Hotel Mistral (“the chambermaid will be really surprised, because I already took a girl’s virginity yesterday”) where “it was as if he wanted to brutalise something in me. He wanted to brutalise the ugliness in himself”.

Solzhenitsyn refused to shake Sartre’s hand; Bernard-Henri Lévy called him “the incarnation of dishonour”.

Virginia Woolf’s plaint that “There is a girl behind the counter – I would as soon have her true history as the hundred and fiftieth life of Napoleon or seventieth study of Keats”.

http://www.ft.com/

The week that risk became reality

Trouble has been in prospect ever since the credit squeeze began last summer, but this was the week when both shoes dropped at once, everywhere from the UK to Japan and most points between. For decades, a concerted world slowdown would have only one cause: a US recession. That is no longer entirely true. To paraphrase Tolstoy, each unhappy economy is unhappy in its own way.

Japan has begun to contract, and plummeting exports are not the sole culprit: domestic demand is weak and consumer confidence has never been lower.

Spain’s economic woes have persuaded the prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, to interrupt his summer holiday; the key problem there was a housing boom, an unsustainable overhang of new property, and the subsequent collapse of a construction sector that provided every eighth job. The UK’s housing boom has ended for a different reason: the banks no longer care to play the game.

Meanwhile, Germany’s resurgent export sector seems to have been smothered by a strong euro, and perhaps the hangover from an unexpectedly good first three months: the economy shrank by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter.

Yet in spite of this wide range of predicaments there is a common thread: the soaring price of commodities, coupled with the return of inflation, is hurting consumers and tying the hands of central bankers.

http://www.ft.com/

Against sterling, the US currency notched up its 11th consecutive day of gains – its longest uninterrupted rise in more than 35 years – as markets became increasingly convinced that the US was best-placed to weather the global downturn.

The eurozone economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since the launch of the euro in 1999, while Japan’s economy contracted 0.6 per cent, its worst performance for seven years. The US staged at least a modest recovery in the same period.

The latest commodity price falls are unlikely to prompt any early reaction from central banks, market observers said. The European Central Bank remains concerned that high inflation rates will become entrenched and US inflation data this week showed consumer prices rising at the fastest rate since January 1991.

http://howardlindzon.com/

Global indices have been crashing, money managers are looking at NO Bonus pay so far in 2008 and inflation is at 17 year highs.

The stock market is never right in the short-term, but over the very long-term, it gets everything right.

To be fair/clear, common shareholders need to respect their money A LOT more and stop thinking of the stock market as their gambling money. You get what you pay for.

Investing is difficult.

http://www.wired.com/

Back to the Future: Google Fares Better Than Apple

Apple is worth more than Google. Huh? This doesn't make sense to me.

Let's start with the obvious: Google makes more money than Apple does. It had earnings of $10 billion over the past 12 months, compared to $8 billion for Apple. And while both companies' earnings are growing fast, Google's are growing faster.

But here's the clincher: Google's earnings were on less than $20 billion of revenue -- that's what I call a profit margin. Apple, by contrast, needed more than $30 billion of revenue to get its $8 billion of gross profit.

Of course, when it comes to stock valuations, the present doesn't matter nearly as much as the future. So what does the future hold for these two franchises?

They're both strong technology giants with very large "moats." But Google is stronger, and its moat is bigger. It owns search, certainly in Europe and the Americas, and it's making strong inroads into display advertising as well. Sam Gustin might be kvetching about "the toll being inflicted on Web advertising by the slowing economy," but the growth rates are still pretty torrid for what is now a reasonably mature industry:

Karsten Weide, an analyst at IDC, told Bloomberg that online ad spending grew 18.9 percent in the second quarter, a growth rate 7 percentage points lower than a year ago. Were it not for the slumping economy, web ad spending would have grown by more than 20 percent, she said.

19% market growth? I think Apple would be very happy with that. And remember that Google is increasing, not decreasing, its share of total online ad spending. Over at Apple, by contrast, the iPod/iTunes duopoly can't help but see its market share eroded going forwards, as DRM-free online music stores start competing on price, the record labels try to cut Apple down to size, and the marginal utility from buying your fourth or fifth iPod starts to decline.

Apple's phone business looks great right now, but the industry is notoriously cutthroat, Apple doesn't have the degree of control it's used to elsewhere, and in any case handset margins are never going to be as big as margins on iPods or MacBooks. Yes, the iPhone app store is a very promising business model -- but it's going to be quite some time, if ever, before it makes a significant contribution to Apple's bottom line.

And then there's the computer business. Macs are selling well, at very high margins. But Google's muscling in on the computing business too: over the long term, it makes sense to do all your computing in an ever-improving cloud than it does on specific, individually-owned pieces of hardware which always, eventually, break. The more important the cloud, the less important the computer, and the less important the computer's operating system, too.

Howard Lindzon, by contrast, thinks the stock market is right, and that Apple should be worth more than Google. Two of his arguments are weak: that "social search" will make Google obsolete (I'll believe it when I see it), and that "MacBooks are getting cheaper" (no they're not: Apple's entry-level laptop has been priced between $1,000 and $1,100 for years, and it's going to stay there).

Howards best argument is that a falling Google share price could become self-fulfilling: "if the stock lingers between $500 or worse yet, drifts lower, you will see a brain drain of epic proportions," he says. Google's competitive advantage has long been that it was smarter and richer and one or two steps ahead of the competition. As it matures, it might not have the same ability to attract the very best and the brightest.

But if Google has job risks, Apple has Jobs risk -- which is much bigger and probably just as imminent. No one at Google is even as important to the company as Jonathan Ive is to Apple, let alone Steve Jobs. If I'm holding a stock as a long-term investment (which is the only sensible way to hold a stock) then I don't want to run the risk that the company will founder the minute the CEO exits.

And talking of the long term, the option value of all those crazy Google projects which never make any money is huge. There's a good chance that, eventually, one of them will take off in a big way, and if it's energy-related, it could make Google's present business look positively puny.

Google stock is volatile, just as the founders said it would be in their prospectus.

But if I was going to sleep today to wake up in ten years' time, I'd be much happier with Google stock under my mattress than Apple.

http://www.dailytech.com/

While running XP on existing systems is logical, he argues that on new home computers it is ridiculous not to run Windows Vista.  He states, "It's another thing to say that on a new home computer, Vista is so unacceptable for mainstream use that you'd be better off with its predecessor."

Finishing on a controversial note, Pegoraro adds, "If you're unhappy about Vista, don't get sucked in by the misguided nostalgia for XP. Root for the success of non-Windows computers. Or buy one yourself. Nothing attracts a company's attention like taking your business elsewhere."

http://www.insidetech.com/

MIT Students Develop Solar Dish Hot Enough to Melt Steel

‘New solar dish from MIT concentrates sunlight intensely enough to melt steel.’ -

The solar industry is booming. With waves of investment and grants, the solar power industry is for the first time becoming a serious business. New power plants will soon be pumping power out to consumers, while other firms market to sell panels directly to the consumer, providing them with a more direct means of experiencing solar energy.

There are many forms of solar power technology. Today the most dominant is photo-voltaics , which comprise the traditional solar panels that come to mind when one thinks of solar power. However, there are other promising ways of capturing the sun’s energy that are merely less developed.

Among these is a parabolic collector. A parabolic collector consists of an array of mirrors focused on a singular point, which they heat to a high temperature. By placing water or another liquid at the collector, energy can be stored in the form of a phase transformation, and later harvested through a turbine generator.

However, parabolic collectors are still a relatively new field of research. Their true potential remains relatively unknown. A glimpse of it was provided by a research team at MIT, which developed a new parabolic collector design, which will blow away current solar power designs in terms of efficiency.

The MIT team believes that their lightweight, inexpensive device holds the promise of revolutionizing the power industry and providing solar power to even remote regions.

The key piece is the 12-foot dish, which the team assembled in several weeks. The design is exceedingly simple and inexpensive. The frame is composed of aluminum tubing and mirrors are attached to it.

The results are staggering – the completed mirror focuses enough solar energy at its focal point to melt solid steel. The energy of typical sunlight is concentrated by a factor of 1,000. This was showcased during a demonstration, in which a team member held up a board, which instantly and violently combusted, when brought within range of the focal point.

By directing the dish at a more practical target – water piped through black tubing – steam can be flash created, offering instant means of producing energy or providing heating.

Spencer Ahrens, who just received his master’s in mechanical engineering from MIT, was among the designers of the dish. He and his fellow team members are serious about marketing it, and leveraging its cheap cost and easy production. They have founded a company named RawSolar. They say their design is easily mass producible and that they hope to be pumping out 1,000 of dishes in years to come.

The new dishes would return their costs in a mere couple years, unlike standard photo-voltaic installations which can take 10 years or more to return their costs. This improvement is critical to providing practical economic justification for adoption.

The dish is based partly on components invented and patented by inventor Doug Wood. He was so pleased with the team’s work that he signed over rights to the components to the team. He elates, “This is actually the most efficient solar collector in existence, and it was just completed. They really have simplified this and made it user-friendly, so anybody can build it.”

Wood says one of the keys to the success of the project is the smaller size. Dishes are affected by the same weight dynamics that effect living organisms. Much as large living organisms would need an inordinate amount of weight support and thus are not favored, larger dish designs fall short in that they require an exponentially greater amount of infrastructure. For example, a dish the size of the RawSolar team’s design costs only a third of what a larger dish would cost.

MIT Sloan School of Management lecturer David Pelly gave a guiding hand to the students and thinks the economic upsides of the technology are impressive. He states, “I’ve looked for years at a variety of solar approaches, and this is the cheapest I’ve seen. And the key thing in scaling it globally is that all of the materials are inexpensive and accessible anywhere in the world. I’ve looked all over for solar technology that could scale without subsidies. Almost nothing I’ve looked at has that potential. This does.”

The ability to build unsubsidized, profitable, and easy to manufacture solar power will truly be something amazing. This should be an exciting technology to follow as it is marketed and further developed.

Besides Ahrens, the other students primarily working on the project were Micah Sze (Sloan MBA ‘08), UC Berkeley graduate and Broad Institute engineer Eva Markiewicz, Olin College student Matt Ritter and MIT materials science student Anna Bershteyn.

http://www.insidetech.com/

‘Turns out some of Vista’s strongest critics may not even know what they’re criticizing.’

Microsoft, the reigning OS king, has received more than its share of criticism for Windows Vista. The OS, which suffered both from poor initial hardware compatibility and from relatively large resource demands has been shunned by many of the largest players in the business community. Some have come out in vocal support of Vista, arguing against those who feel Vista is broken an XP downgrade might be in order.

Inspired by an employee email from Microsoft’s David Webster, the Vista team gathered over 120 XP users in San Francisco who were critical of Windows Vista. After being questioned on video about their Vista impressions, Microsoft told them it was giving them a stunning opportunity—the chance to view their secret operating system they had been cooking up, codenamed “Mojave”. The excited users showed great enthusiasm for the new operating system, with over 90 percent giving positive feedback of the 10 minute demo of the system.

The comic twist is that there is no “Mojave” and it wasn’t a pre-release version of Windows 7. “Mojave” was simply a fictitious title applied to a standard Windows Vista install. Interestingly, the XP users seemed utterly unable to recognize Vista or its features, despite criticizing it. Remarked one user on the new features, “Oh wow!”

While it has been pointed out that the experience neglects to consider installation and networking setup, the “Mojave” experiment provides a strong case for the upsides of Vista analogous to the classic blind taste test advertising gimmick. While Microsoft is still deliberating on how to incorporate the footage into its advertising campaigns, suffice it to say, it is coming soon.

8/15/2008 11:49 AM

http://blog.wired.com/

Remember books? You know, before the internet was big and people read stuff on paper? Well, if you want to be a true gadget geek you have to go beyond reading blogs, says Inside Tech's Eric Dahl. And he's compiled a list of 50 "must read" books every geek should read.

Rather than barrage you with all 50 titles, I thought I'd pluck out a few that I think Gadget Lab readers would especially enjoy:

The Evolution of Useful Things, Henry Petroski
A fascinating read that explains the origins of everyday objects and why they're designed the way they are: Think zippers, forks and paper clips. Zippers are pretty freaking amazing when you think about it.

The Perfect Thing: How the iPod Shuffles Commerce, Culture, and Coolness, Steven Levy
The story behind how perhaps the trendiest gadget of all time came to be.

The Future of Ideas, Lawrence Lessig
I love this book. Lessig illustrates the dangers of losing "free space" in the internet world. Just imagine your blog getting sued because there's a picture of you holding an iPod. This is a definite a must read for any internet/tech enthusiast.

Hard Drive: Bill Gates and the Making of the Microsoft Empire, Jim Erickson
Just how did the Microsoft mastermind do it? This is the entire story.

Revolution in The Valley: The Insanely Great Story of How the Mac Was Made, Andy HertzfeldRevolutioninthevalley_max200w
Similar to the book above -- but this isn't the biography of Steve Jobs. It's about the engineers who actually built the first Mac. You can't call yourself a Mac fan boy unless you've read this one.

Ever find out one of your friends hasn’t read “Neuromancer” or doesn’t know what a Babelfish is or why it’s important to keep a towel handy at all times? Did you have that brief moment where you thought, “Man, it’s like I don’t even know you?”

If you’re gonna work in tech, write code, or just spend way too much time on Engadget, Lifehacker, and BoingBoing, there’s a certain amount of reading that goes with the territory. And I’m not just talking about O’Reilly books here. Discovering “Snow Crash” or geeking out on crypto history teaches us part of the language we all share in tech. (Plus, it’s just really fun.)

From classic sci-fi to programming bibles and productivity hacks, we’ve collected the best of the best. See how many of the 50 Books Every Geek Should Read you’ve polished off, or pick your favorite category and start working your way through the rest. And be sure to let us know if we’ve missed any.

“Snow Crash,” Neal Stephenson
Here’s all you really need to know about Snow Crash: First, it’s awesome. You can’t argue with a sci-fi world where the Mafia runs the world’s greatest pizza delivery operation, and delivery men drive heavily armored vehicles to ensure that they make good on Uncle Enzo’s guarantee to the customer. You just can’t. No. Stop. Seriously. Don’t even try.

Second, it invented the term “metaverse.” SecondLife, the Metaverse Roadmap Conference… really pretty much everything about the 3D web wouldn’t be the same without Snow Crash.

“Neuromancer,” William Gibson
What Snow Crash was to 3D worlds, Neuromancer was to Cyberspace. In fact, the terms cyberpunk, cyberspace, jacking in, etc. are all straight out of Neuromancer.

“I, Robot,” Isaac Asimov
1. A robot may not harm a human or through inaction allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey all orders given to it by humans, except where this would conflict with the first law.
3. A robot must preserve itself, except where this would conflict with the first or second law.

Asimov invented both the three laws and the word “robotics,” and “I, Robot” was one of the first stories to make serious use of both of them. Sadly, the fourth law: “A robot must not allow Will Smith to appear in a movie about it (and screw the first three laws if they get in the way)” was cut by Asimov’s editor.

“Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,” Douglas Adams
A few geek culture infractions can be tolerated… Forget the name of that big waddling robot in Star Wars (it’s Gonk), and we’ll let that slide. Tell us you haven’t gotten to Snow Crash yet, and we may just confiscate your geek card for a while. But we’ve got to draw the line somewhere, so here it is: If you’ve never heard a line of Vogon poetry, heard tell of a substance that tastes “not quite entirely unlike tea,” or learned what number is the answer to life, the universe, and everything, I’m afraid we’ll have to destroy your geek card entirely.

Anyway, if you haven’t read Douglas Adams’ classic comic sci-fi series, don’t panic. Just do us these couple favors: First, don’t let anyone know that this happened. And second, grab yourself a copy of Hitchhiker’s immediately and start reading. If you can get through the first three chapters without laughing out loud at least twice, we’ll give you your money back.

“Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?” Philip K. Dick
‘Cause it’s Blade Runner. And ‘cause Philip K. Dick does trippy dystopic fiction better than anybody.

“Ender’s Game,” Orson Scott Card
Every geek starts out as just a smart little kid. And Ender’s the smartest of them all. Faced with attack by an alien race, the nations of the earth draft the best and brightest children of a generation and send them to Battle School – an orbiting station where they fight zero-g laser tag battles and learn space combat and command while other kids are going to kindergarten.

Ender’s journey isn’t just about saving the world and learning military and leadership strategies. It’s also about growing up as a smart kid.

“The Time Machine,” H.G. Wells
Because you don’t get any more classic than the novel that coined the phrase “time machine.”

“Microserfs,” Doug Coupland
“Generation X” is the book that made Coupland, but it’s “Microserfs” was where the author truly got inside the heads of a generation of coders. ‘Serfs follows Daniel Liu and a group of his friends at Microsoft as they leave the Redmond giant and head to Silicon Valley to form a startup of their own. It captures the spirit of the time (the dawn of the multimedia era) perfectly, and if you’ve ever worked in IT or software development, you’ll feel like you’ve known all of these characters – hell, you might even be one of them.

“Flatland,” Edwin A. Abbott
“Flatland” might just be the coolest thought experiment ever. Imagine a two-dimensional world, populated with living geometric figures. How would they interact? What would happen if they met a three-dimensional being? That’s “Flatland.” Sure there’s some Victorian society social critique in there, but that kind of thing happens when you’re reading sci-fi from 1886.

“1984,” George Orwell
Honestly, pretty much everyone should read this one, but the omission’s even more glaring if you’re in tech. If we have to tell you what 1984’s about, you’re going to Room 101.

“Brave New World,” Aldous Huxley
The antidote to every shiny, optimistic, how-cool-is-the-future sci-fi novel, “Brave New World” warns of what we might lose while gaining so much from technology.

“iCon,” Jeffrey S. Young and William L. Simon
Steve Jobs actually banned all copies of books from iCon publisher Wiley and Sons from the Apple store after this unauthorized account of Jobs’s return to Apple came out. So you know it’s gotta be good.

Iwoz_max200w“iWoz,” Steve Wozniak and Gina Smith
Steve Wozniack’s autobiography drives home just how amazing some of the hacks that made the original Apple computers work were. Woz is an interesting dude, but the vanity-project, mostly-unedited writing style of iWoz makes it a tougher read than you’d like. Thankfully nothing about that weird relationship with Kathy Griffin made it in.

“Hard Drive: Bill Gates and the Making of the Microsoft Empire,” Jim Erickson
Is Microsoft’s legendary founder a genius coder or a business genius who understands code? Many believe the latter, and you’ll find out why in “Hard Drive,” which follows Gates from a little company called Traf-O-Data that he started in high school, through dropping out of Harvard, writing Altair Basic, buying CP/M, and turning Microsoft into the giant it is today.

“The Visual Display of Quantitative Information,” Edward Tufte
OK, maybe “read” isn’t quite the right word for this one, but Tufte’s packed more amazing info-design rules and examples than you could imagine into this book. You’ll never look at a crappy Powerpoint presentation the same way again. (Actually, you won’t even want to look at them after this.)

“Don’t Make Me Think: A Common Sense Approach to Web Usability,” Steve Krug
Packed with diagrams, screen shots, and case studies, “Don’t Make Me Think” shows you how to do exactly that – to avoid slowing visitors down with design that simply doesn’t work.

“The Non-Designer’s Design Book,” Robin Williams
Another book with a perfect title, Williams’s primer walks those of us without design degrees through the principles of great design.

“Tog on Interface,” Bruce Tognazzini
Say what you will about Mac OS, but it introduced UI design concepts that hold true even today, and Bruce Tognazzini was one of the people behind them. Tog drives home the importance of concepts like Fitts’s Law and explores the challenges inherent in different types of UI.

“User Interface Design for Programmers,” Joel Spolsky
Programmers are not designers. But programmers who understand design are much better equipped to write apps that are fun to use. Spolsky’s helped a generation of coders learn what it takes to build an efficient UI.

“Revolution in The Valley: The Insanely Great Story of How the Mac Was Made,” Andy Hertzfeld
The story behind the development of the Mac, told by the engineers that actually built it. The first-person accounts in Revolution in the Valley are mostly Hertzfeld’s, and they evolved in super link-heavy form on folklore.org where they’re still available today. Drop by and brush up on your old-school Mac trivia, or just have fun killing a few minutes paging through this bit of tech history.

“The Soul of a New Machine,” Tracy Kidder
Both a chronicle of tech history – Data General’s race to design a competitor to DEC’s VAX – and an examination of tech workplace culture, “The Soul of a new Machine” will feel very familiar to anyone who’s worked late nights and weekends to get a product done on time.

“Where Wizards Stay Up Late,” Hafner and Lyon
Essential history of how the Internet grew out of the Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency network (ARAPANET). You won’t find much about Al Gore in here, but you will get to dig into lots of neat little details like how the @ symbol was chosen for e-mail addresses.

“Dealers of Lightning: Xerox PARC and the Dawn of the Computer Age,” Michael A. Hiltzik
Bill Gates once famously told Steve Jobs that “we both had this rich neighbor named Xerox, and I broke into his house to steal the TV set and found out that you had already stolen it.” “Dealers of Lightning” tells the story of Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center that developed the mouse, the laser printer, hypertext, Ethernet, and WYSIWYG word processing, before spectacularly letting other companies steal most of them away.

“The Cuckoo’s Egg,” Cliff Stoll
Stoll’s story begins with a $.75 accounting error and ends with the capture of a German hacker trying to penetrate U.S. military networks. Stoll’s hunt eventually involved the FBI, CIA, NSA, and lots of military computers still using default passwords.

“The Perfect Thing: How the iPod Shuffles Commerce, Culture, and Coolness,” Steven Levy
Almost more than you ever wanted to know about the design of the most successful digital music player on the planet.

“Longitude: The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time,” Dava Sobel
Geeks will be geeks, even in the 1700s. John Harrison’s obsession with the problem of longitude led to great advances in time keeping and navigation. And it’s a fascinating story.

“The Code Book,” Simon Singh
Comprehensive, engaging, and full of amazing stories and sample decryptions, “The Code Book” is everything you could ask for as an intro to cryptography and code breaking. Plus, if you read it on a commute, there’s a good chance you’ll get to spend a suspenseful work day wondering how exactly Kasiski cracked the Vigenere cipher for really long keyphrases. Good times.

“Cryptonomicon,” Neal Stephenson
Sure, this one probably belongs in sci-fi, but Stephenson’s novel about a team of hackers working to build an island-based data haven draws its inspiration from real-life events: The cryptographers at England’s Bletchley Park, Haven Co’s operation on Sealand, etc.

“Crypto,” Steven Levy
Cryptography’s a tough business. And before Ron Rivest, Whitfield Diffie, Martin Hellman, and Ralph Merkle came along, it was a damn near impossible business for anyone outside of government agencies. Levy recounts how pioneers like Diffie and Hellman brought cryptography out into the public, and developed the systems that make secure Internet transactions possible.

“The Pragmatic Programmer: From Journeyman to Master,” Andrew Hunt, David Thomas
“Code Complete: A Practical Handbook of Software Construction,” Steve McConnell
“Design Patterns: Elements of Reusable Object-Oriented Software,” Erich Gamma, Richard Helm, Ralph Johnson, John M. Vlissides
These three books belong on the shelf of any programmer. “Code Complete” and “Pragmatic Programmer” are both chock full of advice that will help you clean up your software, write better code, and waste less time doing it. “Design Patterns…” digs even deeper into object-oriented design, cataloging successful approaches you can apply to your own projects.

“Dreaming in Code,” Scott Rosenberg
How many of the classic software development mistakes can one team make? I don’t know, but at times it’s looked as if the engineers behind Mitch Kapor’s “Chandler” were trying to find out. Scott Rosenberg chronicles the first 3 years of the project as they attempt to build an open-source successor to Kapor’s legendary Lotus Agenda PIM (Personal Information Manager). (Chandler finally released a 1.0 version on August 8th.)

“The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering,” Frederick P. Brooks
Everyone working on software should read this book. Brooks explains why most software projects continue to fall behind, why adding bodies to a team doesn’t always make things go faster, and how to handle specifications, documentation, and code freezes.

“Beautiful Code: Leading Programmers Explain How They Think,” Andy Oram
The title pretty much says it all for this one: Some of today’s top developers explaining how they think about problems. If you’ve ever written code, you’re sure to find bits of yourself (and more than a little inspiration) here.

“Cathedral and the Bazaar,” Eric S. Raymond
Raymond coined Linus’s Law: “Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow” in this essay on open-source development approaches. It’s one of the most persuasive arguments for the public open-source coding style used by the Linux kernel project, and one of the reasons many collaborative development efforts use a similar, bazaar-type approach.

“The Long Tail,” Chris Anderson
Wired editor Chris Anderson looked at Amazon sales and Neftflix rentals and saw the future of media: Big hits remain important, but there’s more money than ever to be made from niche titles – books, music, movies, etc. discovered and purchased by a select few.

“The Future of Ideas,” Lawrence Lessig
How should copyright change, or should it disappear entirely if we’re to get the maximum benefit out of our net-connected lives? Law professor Lawrence Lessig (not quite the Bob Loblaw of our times) looks at the history of copyright and argues that much more intellectual property should end up in the commons.

“On Intelligence,” Jeff Hawkins
Palm founder Jeff Hawkins explores thought, AI, and why the way we develop computers today won’t lead us to AI that works.

“In the Beginning was the Command Line,” Neal Stephenson
Stephenson brings his unique style to the evolution of operating systems and interfaces, looking at everything from why Windows is so popular to why some of us still prefer to work from the command line.

“Code: Version 2.0,” Lawrence Lessig
Who controls what in cyberspace? And more to the point, who should control what? Lessig tackled this topic in 1999 with “Code” and later updated it to the wiki-edited, Creative-Commons-licensed, “Code: Version 2.0.”

“The Wisdom of Crowds,” James Surowiecki
Surowiecki argues that large populations often make better decisions and predictions than experts, a seductive idea in an increasingly networked world. That alone wouldn’t be news, but in Wisdom of Crowds, Surowiecki explores which types of decisions crowds are good at making, and what elements you need to create a wise crowd.

“The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,” Ray Kurzweil
In Kurzweil’s vision of post-humanity genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics combine to help humans create super-intelligent and durable versions of ourselves. From anyone else, this would belong in the sci-fi section, but Kurzweil makes a compeling case that we’re headed toward a point (the singularity) where the future of humanity becomes unrecognizable.

“Gödel, Escher, Bach,” Douglas Hofstadter
Melding math, music, and art, Hofstadter’s “Godel, Escher, Bach” is a singular exploration of the work of the title figures and, through them, of thought itself.

“Gut Feelings,” Gerd Gigerenzer
This is one of my sentimental picks, but it’s part of a larger point: If you’re ready to geek out on a subject, you outta be willing to find a source that’s deeper and more technical than mainstream fare.

And that’s just one reason that “Blink” is for sissys… Ever wonder where Gladwell got the idea for his rapid-cognition pop-nonfiction masterpiece about experts unconsciously leaping to better conclusions than they can work out in their heads? Well, it mostly came from the research behind Gigerenzer’s “Gut Feelings.” Gigerenzer shows you why the stuff in “Blink” works by getting at the evolved capacities that make rapid cognition possible.

Normally I’m happy for a writer of Gladwell’s talent to translate some dry academic writing into something normal people can read, but as it turns out, Girerenzer’s an engaging writer, too. Do yourself a favor and go straight to the source.

“A Brief History of Time,” Stephen Hawking
GraphJam is probably right about the stats on how many people have actually read this one, but those who do find a remarkably comprehensive and digestible summary of physics from one of the smartest human beings on the planet. At least buy a yourself copy so that you can claim you’re planning to read it.

“Hackers and Painters: Big Ideas from the Computer Age,” Paul Graham

Graham explains the hacking mentality like no other, relating it to everything from painting to playwriting and wondering what a new generation of hackers will make out of this medium.

“The Evolution of Useful Things,” Henry Petroski
Petroski crafts an appealing enigineering history looking at how and why everyday objects from the paperclip to the fork came to be designed the way they are.

“Getting Things Done,” David Allen
The book that spawned a productivity movement, “GTD” and the 43 Folders-type followers it’s created have helped a generation of procrastination professionals to, well, get things done. Thousands of life hackers agree: David Allen has helped make efficiency cool again.

“Upgrade Your Life: The Lifehacker Guide to Working Smarter, Faster, Better,” Gina Trapani

There’s something recursively screwed up about this, but even after hacking your life to within an inch of its, um, life, you probably won’t have time to catch all the cool tips on Lifehacker. The second edition of Lifehacker’s tips book collects more than 100 tips you won’t want to miss.

Online Reading

Whether through Creative Commons Licensing, an online writing process, or the simple passage of time, many of the books on this list are available online. Here’s where to find them:

“Flatland” – Available lots of places, since it’s now public domain. Here’s one of the better locations.
“Revolution in The Valley” – Began its life on folklore.org, where it continues to live on.
“In the Beginning Was the Command Line” – Stephenson’s essay’s widely available online, and continues to live at the site for one of his books.
“Code: Version 2.0” – Was written and edited in wiki format and is available under a Creative Commons license at codev2.cc.
“The Future of Ideas” – The other Lessig book on our list is similarly available under a Creative Commons license.
“The Cathedral and the Bazarr” – Raymond’s essay on open source and hacker culture can be found on catb.org.

http://www.nj.com/

Records may show that Julia Child cooked up some covert operations

As hard as it is to picture the 6-foot, 2-inch, distinctively-voiced Julia Child going incognito, records released by the National Archives this week show that the famous chef was part of an international spy ring during World War II.

Child, along with Supreme Court Justice Arthur Goldberg, Chicago White Sox catcher Moe Berg, actor Sterling Hayden, and the sons of Theodore Roosevelt and Ernest Hemingway, all were part of the Office of Strategic Services, a precursor to the CIA, according to the Associated Press.

The National Archives is releasing the previously classified files on nearly 24,000 military and civilian spies in the fledgling U.S. intelligence network. These men and women, the AP reports, studied military plans, created propaganda, infiltrated enemy ranks and stirred resistance among foreign troops.

Some of these spies were previously identified, while some, like Child, were new to historians. The records released this week will detail their recruitment and possibly their missions.

http://news.yahoo.com/

Highway crashes kill more than 41,000 in 2007

WASHINGTON - Traffic deaths in the United States declined last year, reaching the lowest level in more than a decade.

Some 41,059 people were killed in highway crashes, down by more than 1,000 from 2006.

The fatality rate of 1.37 deaths for every 100 million miles traveled in 2007 was the lowest on record, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in its report Thursday.

California had the largest decline, 266 fewer fatalities than the previous year. The largest percentage decreases were in South Dakota and Vermont.

North Carolina's death toll increased the most in the nation, up 121 over the previous year. The District of Columbia and Alaska had the highest percentage increases.

Motorcycle deaths increased for the 10th straight year. There were 5,154 motorcycle deaths last year, compared with 4,837 in 2006.

8/14/2008 10:09 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

Future wars 'to be fought with mind drugs'

Future wars could see opponents attacking each other's minds, according to a report for the US military.

Landmines releasing brain-altering chemicals, scanners reading soldiers' minds and devices boosting eyesight and hearing could all one figure in arsenals, suggests the study.

Sophisticated drugs, designed for dementia patients but also allowing troops to stay awake and alert for several days are expected to be developed, according to the report. It is thought that some US soldiers are already taking drugs prescribed for narcolepsy in an attempt to combat fatigue.

As well as those physically and mentally boosting one's own troops, substances could also be developed to deplete an opponents' forces, it says.

"How can we disrupt the enemy's motivation to fight?" It asks. "Is there a way to make the enemy obey our commands?" Research shows that "drugs can be utilized to achieve abnormal, diseased, or disordered psychology" among one's enemy, it concludes.

Research is particularly encouraging in the area of functional neuroimaging, or understanding the relationships between brain activity and actions, the report says, raising hopes that scanners able to read the intentions or memories of soldiers could soon be developed.

Some military chiefs and law enforcement officials hope that a new generation of polygraphs, or lie detectors, which spot lie-telling by observing changes in brain activity, can be built.

"Pharmacological landmines," which release drugs to incapacitate soldiers upon their contact with them, could also be developed, according to the report's authors.

The report, which was commissioned by the Defense Intelligence Agency, contained the work of scientists asked to examine how better understanding of how the human mind works was likely to affect the development of technology.

It finds that "great progress has been made" in neuroscience over the last decade, and that continuing advances offered the prospect of a dramatic impact on military equipment and the way in which wars are fought.

It also explains that the concept of torture could be transformed in the future. "It is possible that some day there could be a technique developed to extract information from a prisoner that does not have any lasting side effects," it states. One technique being developed involves the delivery of electrical pulses into a suspect's brain and delay their ability to lie by interfering with its neurons.

Research into "distributed human-machine systems", including robots and military hardware controlled by an operator's mind, is another particular area for optimism among researchers, according to the report. It says significant progress has already been made and that prospects for use of the field are "limited only by the creative imagination."

Jonathan Moreno, a bioethicist and the author of 'Mind Wars: Brain Research and National Defense', said "It's too early to know which, if any, of these technologies is going to be practical. But it's important for us to get ahead of the curve. Soldiers are always on the cutting edge of new technologies."

8/13/2008 12:54 PM

http://online.wsj.com/

U.S. Driving Continues to Decrease

By ANDREW EDWARDS
August 13, 2008 12:38 p.m.

U.S. driving slid for the eighth straight month in June, making the decline more pronounced that the drop that occurred during the 1970s oil shock.

The U.S. Department of Transportation said Americans drove 12.2 billion miles less in June than a year earlier. With that, the decline since November is now 53.2 billion miles, topping the 49.3 billion decline three decades ago. Rural travel has fallen 4% since late last year, while urban driving is off just 1.2%. (See the Federal highway Administration data.)

Transportation Secretary Mary Peters used the latest data to again call for a rethinking of how the nation's transportation network is funded. Federal gas taxes have declined as Americans curb their driving habit amid record gas prices.

Oil prices have slid over the past month, and gasoline prices are off their peak, but Ms. Peters sees trouble ahead in long-term transportation trends.

"We can't afford to continue pinning our transportation network's future to the gas tax," Ms. Peters said Wednesday. "Advances in higher fuel-efficiency vehicles and alternative fuels are making the gas tax an even less sustainable support for funding roads, bridges and transit systems."

Lock picking is one of those rare skills that give you serious cool cred and come in really, really useful at the right moments. With a little study, you can grab a piece of that respect and come to the rescue of friends, neighbors, and your own forgetful self. Here's a guide to the basics, and a guide to making your own vibrating pick to ease the learning curve. Forgotten the combination to your locker? Here's how to crack the Master Lock code. If you're feeling a serious secret agent kick (and it's a pretty sad lock you're facing), you can always open a door with a credit card.

http://kk.org/

Instead, the most–e-mailed lists, despite a smattering of parochial concerns, were a rich stew of global affairs, provocative insight, hot-button issues, pop culture, compelling narrative, and enlightened localism. In short, they were interesting. What they were not, generally, was important, at least not in the grand tectonic geopolitical sense. 

The boring news -- most of it "important" -- is now a commodity, easily found and replicated. Hirschorn continues:

The real value now lies in non-commodificable virtues like deep reporting, strong narrative, distinct point of view, and sharp analysis, which even in the blogger era (or especially in the blogger era) is available only piecemeal.

http://kk.org/

Big love is a renewable building material, says Clay Shirky. Like the Ise Shrine in Japan which is rebuilt -- out of love -- every 20 years. Turns out the longest lasting things don't have an enduring edifice, but an enduring process.

Clay says the best predictor of longevity for a system is not to inspect the business model but to answer this question: Do the people who like the place/building/system/product take care of each other? Not just take care of the object of veneration but take mutual care of the fans?

In other words, do they run on love?

About five years ago I wrote an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal declaring that the "internet runs on love, not greed." You can read it here.  Clay has expanded, deepened, and brilliantly enhanced the argument. He ends a recent talk with these memorable lines.

We have always loved one another. We’re human, its something we’re good at. But up until recently, the radius and half-life of that affection has always been quite limited. With love alone, you can get together a birthday party. Add coordinating tools, and you can write an operating system. In the past, we would do little things for love, but big things, big things required money. Now we can do big things for love.   

http://kk.org/

The Anti-Portfolio of Investments Not Made

The other day I listed some of the things I got wrong. I'm not the only one to have made some bad calls. A friend who works for  the VC investment firm Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP) pointed me to their very honest and amusing disclosure of opportunities they missed. The site says directly:

Bessemer Venture Partners is perhaps the nation's oldest venture capital firm, carrying on an unbroken practice of venture capital investing that stretches back to 1911. This long and storied history has afforded our firm an unparalleled number of opportunities to completely screw up.

A few examples:

Cowan’s [one of the partners] college friend rented her garage to Sergey and Larry for their first year. In 1999 and 2000 she tried to introduce Cowan to “these two really smart Stanford students writing a search engine”. Students? A new search engine? In the most important moment ever for Bessemer’s anti-portfolio, Cowan asked her, “How can I get out of this house without going anywhere near your garage?”

"Stamps? Coins? Comic books? You've GOT to be kidding," thought Cowan. "No-brainer pass."

BVP had the opportunity to invest in pre-IPO secondary stock in Apple at a $60M valuation. BVP's Neill Brownstein called it "outrageously expensive."

Incredibly, BVP passed on Federal Express seven times.

David Cowan passed on the Series A round. Rookie team, regulatory nightmare. 4 years later, a $1.5 billion acquisition by eBay.

If you think about it, most VC firms must have equally long and entertaining lists, even if they don't publish them. Turning down startups is what VCs do -- most of the time.

http://kk.org/

In the 1950's Marshall McLuhan proposed a reality television show in which corporations would present their major problems to a mass audience. "For every expert idea that arises inside an organization," McLuhan advised executives, "the public has a thousand better ideas than you ever heard of." 

Shirky writes:

Because of transaction costs, organizations cannot afford to hire employees who only make one important contribution -- they need to hire people who have good ideas [for them] day after day. Yet as we know, most people are not so prolific, and in any given field many people have only one or a few good ideas, just as most contributors [on Flickr] documenting the Mermaid Parade or Hurricane Katrina contribute only one photo each. .. As a result, many good ideas (or good photos or good music) are simply inaccessible in an institutional framework...As Bill Joy, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems, once put it, "No matter who you are, most of the smart people work for someone else." What the open source model does is to allow those people to work together.

http://kk.org/

Bribe Your New Employees To Quit

This is one of the coolest counterintuitive ideas I've heard in a long time. It's gotten some play in the blogomedia, but it's still worth pointing out. The advice for companies goes like this:

Pinpoint the least committed of your new employees by offering them $1,000 to quit. The ones who take this early buyout after only a few weeks on the job will be the ones you don't want in the long term.

Details here, courtesy of Bill Taylor, former Fast Company editor, who writes in Harvard Business Review about the hiring practices of Zappos, the legendary online shoe company. He says:

[Zappos] is a company that’s bursting with personality, to the point where a huge number of its 1,600 employees are power users of Twitter so that their friends, colleagues, and customers know what they’re up to at any moment in time. But here’s what’s really interesting. It’s a hard job, answering phones and talking to customers for hours at a time. So when Zappos hires new employees, it provides a four-week training period that immerses them in the company’s strategy, culture, and obsession with customers. People get paid their full salary during this period.

After a week or so in this immersive experience, though, it’s time for what Zappos calls “The Offer.” The fast-growing company, which works hard to recruit people to join, says to its newest employees: “If you quit today, we will pay you for the amount of time you’ve worked, plus we will offer you a $1,000 bonus.” Zappos actually bribes its new employees to quit!

Why? Because if you’re willing to take the company up on the offer, you obviously don’t have the sense of commitment they are looking for. It’s hard to describe the level of energy in the Zappos culture—which means, by definition, it’s not for everybody. Zappos wants to learn if there’s a bad fit between what makes the organization tick and what makes individual employees tick—and it’s willing to pay to learn sooner rather than later. (About ten percent of new call-center employees take the money and run.)

Indeed, CEO Tony Hsieh and his colleagues keep raising the size of the quit-now bonus. It started at $100, went to $500, and may well go higher than $1,000 as the company gets bigger (and it becomes even more difficult to maintain the all-important culture and obsession with customers.)

Anne Thompson writing in Variety

Both Amazon and Netflix have the ability to "recommend" similar movies to their customers, even if the titles are utterly unknown, on the basis of having rated such genres as sports docs, Bollywood musicals or Jane Austen romances. "We can get a film to perform as if it did $1 million at the box office," says Netflix chief content officer [Ted] Sarandos, "without spending the marketing dollars to get that. Instead of a distributor recouping its dollars, that money will flow back to the filmmaker."

In other words, the recommendation technology at Netflix -- the softwares that says: based on your past ratings of movies you should like this new one -- will spur rentals as if it were a film earning at least $1 million at the box office. Let's say that increase in DVD usage amounts to 10% of total sales. That's a lift of $100,000 per film on average. Netflix currently offers 70,000 films. That means that Netflix's recommendation engine is worth about $7 billion to the film industry.

Rule the Web
Mark Frauenfelder
2007, 416 pages
$11
Available from Amazon

Rule the Web website

Sample excerpt:

How Can I Find Someone's Phone Number Even If It's Unlisted?

Use Zabasearch to find almost anyone. As a freelance journalist, I need to hunt around a lot for phone numbers. All of the big search engines offer some kind of peoplefinder service, but they are little more than online phone books. If a person has an unlisted number, you are out of luck. But not if you use Zabasearch (zabasearch.com). The search engine, which gets its information from public databases that aren't directly linked to the Web, has got the goods on almost everyone. Even though many of the addresses and phone numbers in it are outdated, I've used it successfully more than once to track down someone I needed to get in touch with for a story I was writing. One such person, a well known author, asked me how I got his phone number. When I told him about Zabasearch, he checked out the site himself and emailed me back, thanking me for introducing him to this useful
service.

Home Carbonation System

DIY beverage bubbles

I drink a lot of seltzer. So much that my fiancee says I couldn't survive without bubbles in my water. After trying a SodaClub home soda maker (picture above right) and realizing it would cost $70 to buy a special part for it, I found a really detailed resource for building my own, simple home carbonation system for under a $100 using a CO2 tank, regulator, hose and a carbonator cap (details below). It took ten minutes to build. I love having very good homemade soda on the cheap and not having to lug around seltzer bottles or worry about it going flat. With a scuba-like tank in the kitchen, guests always ask "What is that?!" and I really love demonstrating. When one friend of mine said he didn't like soda, I whipped him up a mango soda from this special puree of mango I had. He absolutely loved it! And a by-product of the cost of producing low cost seltzer water is that I can experiment with different flavored sodas. I mean some really wacky stuff, like lychee-tangerine or coconut-lucima. If I don't like it, or it tastes weird, I don't feel guilty about draining the entire liter or two-liter bottle.

My 20lb system makes over 1133 liters of carbonated water. In practice, efficiency is not perfect, with unavoidable losses in the hose and headspace. But at current prices of $20 per 20lb tank-fill, the cost to convert tap water to seltzer is under $0.02 cents per liter. A single fill of a 20lb tank charges over 500 bottles, which will keep you supplied for 1.5 years if you consume an average of one bottle daily. In terms of break even, assuming that you can find liter bottles of seltzer water for $0.99 per bottle, then it'll take roughly 100 bottles for the system to break even. I definitely drink a liter a day, so it only took about 3 months for me to break even -- not to mention all of the labor and space that it saves to lug in and store 8.3 dozen liter bottles of seltzer water.

I found a CO2 tank on eBay for about $30 bucks, including shipping. I use a dual gauge CO2 regulator; a single gauge one for CO2 output would work also, but I prefer the dual as it also tells you the amount of gas in the CO2 canister ($20 on eBay). You also need a hose (or "gas fitting tube"). To avoid the site's detailed instructions on how to fit the CO2 hose onto a 2 liter bottle of soda, I bought a special carbonator cap that lets you easily insert the hose ($11 from Northern Brewer). You can't refill a CO2 tank in NYC, as it violates several ordinances. However, you can exchange your empty tank for a full one for $20 at a local welding supply place (other spots include keg brewers and anywhere that refills fire extinguishers).

The operating instructions are fairly straightforward. On a dual gauge tank there are two gauges and two valves, one for the main tank and one for the output. The valve between the CO2 tank and the regulator, I'll call the CO2 valve and the valve between the regulator and the carbonator cap, I'll call the output valve:

1) Fill up a one- or two-liter bottle.
2) Screw on the carbonator cap fairly tight (it's a ball release
cap, so you simply push the entire cap to release it from the hose afterwards)
3) Make sure the Output valve is completely shut off
4) Turn on the CO2 valve and watch the CO2 tank gauge shoot up (this will be
the remaining pressure in your tank)
5) Slowly turn the Output valve open until the pressure reaches about 50 PSI
(I've been experimenting with various PSI's -- 50 PSI works best for me)
6) As you feel the bottle get full (don't worry, I read recently
that two-liter soda bottles are rated to handle 200 PSI), pick it up and start
shaking vigorously as you would a bar drink (this helps carbonate the water).
7) Turn off the CO2 valve and then the Output valve
8) Remove the carbonator cap

Incidentally, it was a SodaClub home soda maker I bought on eBay that inspired me ultimately to build my own home carbonation unit. The SodaClub unit has a proprietary design whereby it is nearly impossible to refill without a special adapter and the adapters I found online cost $70 bucks (more than I paid for the SodaClub). So rather than spend $70 to fix an inherent problem with the SodaClub (and I would still need a 20lb canister sitting somewhere in my house), I did some research and found this site. For about $95 bucks -- less than the cost of a new SodaClub (they retail new for about $100) -- I have more than 10 times the soda making capacity (SodaClub claims you can get 110 liters of soda). I should add that I've seen plans on eBay for $5 or $10 bucks for how to construct your own soda fountain gun that spurts out bubbly water on demand. With mine, the end result is the same, but the carbonator unit I built is so much simpler and cheaper and it doesn't require a heat sink or a refrigeration unit.

-- Alastair Ong

Home Carbonation System
Info available from Richard J. Kinch

Soda Supplies & Parts
$5+ (extracts)
$11 (carbonator cap)
Available from Northern Brewer

Rules of Thumb

The best way to make money in residential real estate is to buy the worst home on the best street.

The moon covers half a degree of sky.

When digging a grave by hand, haul away 17 wheelbarrow loads of dirt and pile the rest by the hole. You will have just the right amount to backfill.

For marketing purposes, elderly consumers think they are 15 years younger than they actually are.

The price of a telescope increases proportionately to the cube of the lens diameter.

Recovering an unused physical skill takes one month for each year of layoff.

If you walk into a bar where a lot of people wear baseball caps, it's a good place to sell lottery tickets.

Eclipses often come in pairs. A lunar eclipse is followed frequently by a solar eclipse two weeks later, and vice versa.

If the cats aren't sleeping on the radiators, turn down the heat.

One chemical toilet serves 15 employees per week.

It takes two minutes for the sun to drop out of sight once it touches the horizon.

If a woman can walk around during contractions, she is not fully dilated.

When you are working in the vicinity of high voltage, keep 1 foot of distance between you and the power source for each 1,000 volts. For instance, stay 13 feet away from a 13,000 volt power source.

http://www.usnews.com/

Is it smart to buy stocks during a recession? Absolutely, says Morningstar analyst Bill Bergman. He crunched some historical data from the nine recessions we've had since 1950 (each of which was deemed so by the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee). Interestingly, Bergman's examples show that recession investing beats continuous investing, in either nominal or real terms, he says. Consider the following illustrations:

1. Let's say you had put $1 into the S&P 500 stock index every month since 1950, Bergman says. That $703 would be worth about $9,300 today. But had you been "lucky, smart, and disciplined enough," he says, to invest only in the nine months that the NBER deemed the onset of each of the nine recessions—in other words, investing equal chunks of the $703 ($78.11) in each of those nine months—you'd have $11,600 today. That's 24 percent more than if you had just bought into the S&P 500 every month.

2. Had you broken the $703 into 93 equal amounts—for each of the 93 months that NBER deemed to be in recession—you'd have ended up with a higher return than if you had invested only at the onset of recessions, Bergman says.

3. If you had bought into the S&P 500 only in the nine months in which the nine recessions ended, you'd have less money today than if you had bought at the onsets or in the midst of those recessions, Bergman says.

OK, so it would require superhuman foresight to accurately predict recessions and recession onsets down to the month. But Bergman's data are encouraging for anyone who's contemplating putting money into the market right now.

Here's another great takeaway from Bergman's story: The S&P 500 is included in the index of leading economic indicators because it tends to go down before recessions start and rise before recessions are over.

8/8/2008 12:05 PM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

As for the Russians and the Iranians, the pundits have remembered that even the most externally truculent or internally turbulent of energy-exporting nations can feed its people at home only by selling its natural resources abroad, so must ultimately stay on good terms with its customers.

And meanwhile, five years of rising oil prices have provoked a wave of investment in new drilling and refinery capacity - including the opening up of inaccessible oil sources that no one wanted to tackle when prices were low. Whether it is deep under the Arctic ice-cap or soaked into the tar-sands of northern Alberta, there turns out to be quite a lot more oil waiting to be exploited before we really approach the peak-oil apocalypse. More than that, high oil prices have encouraged rapid development of such alternative energy sources as wind and solar power, and more efficient engine and heating technologies.

On the demand side, a shuddering deceleration in economic activity across the industrialised world is starting to take pressure away. Many economists think the downturn will be deep and painful, and Opec (whose predictions are naturally at the low end of the range) thinks demand for its output could be lower in the early part of the next decade than it was in 2006.

8/7/2008 6:38 AM

http://www.theinquirer.net/

DNS flaw is much worse than first thought

Most everything on the Net's at risk

IN A TALK at the Black Hat conference in Las Vega on Wednesday, security researcher Dan Kaminsky said that the systemic Internet Domain Name System (DNS) vulnerability he discovered some months ago is much more dangerous than most have appreciated.

"Every network is at risk," Kaminsky told the overflow crowd gathered for his presentation. "That's what this flaw has shown." He said that what little he'd initially revealed about the DNS vulnerability, and the later leak of more details about it, was only the tip of an iceberg that he called the worst Internet security risk to surface since 1997.

The initial worry has been the danger that hackers could exploit the DNS cache poisoning vulnerability that Kaminsky found to hijack web browsers and route unsuspecting wibblers to malicious websites harboring phishing or malware attacks.

However, because the problem exists in the distributed map that forms the very underlying structure of the Internet, that was only the most obvious of many possible attacks.

Besides hijacking web browsers, hackers might attack many other applications, protocols and services, including email services and spam filters, the File Transfer Protocol (FTP) and other data transmission protocols such as Rsync and BitTorrent, Telnet and Secure Shell (SSH) remote login services, as well as Secure Socket Layer (SSL) services that supposedly secure online banking, retail sales, auctions -- indeed nearly all online financial transactions.

Automatic software upgrade services such as are used by Microsoft and Apple could also be compromised, potentially letting hackers gull unwitting users into installing malicious software masquerading as authentic updates.

"There are a ton of different paths that lead to doom," Kaminsky said, telling attendees he knows at least fifteen ways to maliciously exploit the DNS flaw.

He predicted that, as more researchers study the flaw, more potential avenues of attack are likely to tip up. Kaminsky said that ultimately it's not a question of which systems can be attacked by exploiting the flaw, but rather which ones cannot.

In a press conference following his presentation, Kaminsky indicated that the possibility of hacking DSN services leads to a domino effect. "I maybe had time [to look at] four or five dominos," he said. "It just gets worse."

He went into more details during his Black Hat session, which lasted more than an hour, but we're confident you get the idea. Kaminksy has posted slides from his presentation at his website, DoxPara. µ

8/4/2008 7:33 AM

http://wcbstv.com/

The 10 percent of households with the highest incomes account for nearly a quarter of all spending, according to data compiled by research firm Moody's Economy.com from a 2006 federal survey.

"That does suggest those folks are important for the spending outlook, and the overall economic outlook," said Scott Hoyt, Moody's director of consumer economics.

Other government data show households in the top one-fifth of the U.S. population ranked by income earn about half of all total personal income before taxes—an imbalance that gives the wealthy immense economic clout, said Sara Johnson, an economist at the research firm Global Insight.

"Consumer spending makes up 70 percent of gross domestic product, and when one group accounts for a very substantial share of consumer spending, they also account for a large share of the economic activity that creates jobs," Johnson said.

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate had jumped to the highest in four years. The housing slump, tighter credit, high fuel prices and a lack of confidence is causing employers to cut expansion plans, or even let employees go.

http://www.breitbart.tv/

AFP: Doctors in eastern France said Thursday they had carried out the world's first "no-scar" surgery, using hi-tech instruments to remove the gallbladder of a 30-year-old patient via her vagina. The operation breaks new ground in minimally invasive surgery, a technique designed to boost post-operative recovery and avoid the emotional impact of scars.

http://www.mercurynews.com/

State employees face wage fallout in tough economy

Employees reacted to an executive order Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Thursday, laying off more than 10,000 temporary, part-time and contract employees and temporarily paying as many as 200,000 state employees the federal minimum wage of $6.55 an hour until an agreement on the overdue state budget is reached. Unions challenged his authority to do that in filings filed Friday.

———

Celeste Knox, 39, made $15.98 an hour in her position as a temporary office assistant with the Department of Consumer Affairs.

The single mother of two completed the purchase of a $167,500 three-bedroom home Wednesday morning, then learned just hours later that she would be laid off.

"Now I can't pay my mortgage. I can't pay anything—lights, gas, food. So I guess I'm going on a diet," Knox said. "I haven't slept, I haven't ate. I've just been crying and trying to find a way to make it work. So far I haven't found one."

She blamed state lawmakers, rather than Schwarzenegger, for failing to pass a budget on time.

"I expected our Legislature to do what we elected our Legislature to do," she said. "I feel like I was left out in the cold. It's a horrible mess."

———

Dhia Woodruff, 21, had been earning $12.78 an hour working 40 hours a week in the mailroom of the Office of State Publishing before she was laid off Thursday.

"They just said don't come to work tomorrow," Woodruff said.

She was not optimistic about her chances of getting another job soon, and worried about making her car payments and paying rent to her mother, a state employee now facing the prospect of earning $6.55 an hour.

"I'm counting on a little bit of unemployment and trying to find a part-time job. Since there's so many people out trying to find jobs, I don't know..."

———

Mark Swabey, 53, a full-time CalTrans worker who would be subjected to the wage rollback, said he was most worried about the employees who were laid off.

"That's despicable. It's outrageous. He had no reason to lay off, as a group, some of our lowest paid workers. They're not making much anyway, and now they're making nothing," Swabey said.

He said Schwarzenegger's order to pay hundreds of thousands of state employees $6.55 an hour could affect the entire state economy.

"It's foreclosure wages. We have a housing crisis here in California and it just got worse."

———

Mimi Febres, 40, choked back tears during a union protest as she related moving from Vallejo to Sacramento six weeks ago to take a job at the Department of Motor Vehicles headquarters.

"I came to the state for security and benefits. Look where we are. It is personal. I was told yesterday I have no job," Febres said. "We just put a deposit on an apartment. Now we have to move out."

She joined several hundred other state workers outside the Capitol carrying signs and shouting, "We're not pawns" and "We can't survive on $6.55."

———

Pedro Leon, 52, of Sacramento, has worked 31 years as a printing press operator at the Department of Justice. He expects to take an 80 percent pay cut if he begins receiving only the federal minimum wage.

"I'll be lucky if I have enough money to eat, let alone pay my bills," said Leon, flanked by his wife, Susannah. "This would just harm the whole state of California and bring the economy to its knees."

The couple's two adult children live at home, and the family has little savings.

"Nobody knew it was coming," said Susannah Leon, who is not employed outside the home. "If he doesn't get a paycheck, I don't have a roof over my head."
 

http://www.breitbart.com/

Australian doctors have raised concerns about clinics offering vaginal cosmetic surgery, warning the trend towards so-called "designer vaginas" may be exploiting vulnerable women.

The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists said procedures being offered included "vaginal rejuvenation, revirgination, designer vaginoplasty and G-spot amplification".

"What is involved in these procedures is often unclear since recognised clinical nomenclature is not being used," it said in a position paper released this week.

The college labelled the procedures dangerous, expensive and unwarranted, and said it strongly discouraged surgery that was not backed by scientific evidence or clinical trials.

"The real risks of potential complications such as scarring, permanent disfigurement, infection, dyspareunia and altered sexual sensations should be discussed in detail with women seeking such treatments," it said.

The college said women should understand that there were a large number of variations in the appearance of normal female genitalia.

"The college is particularly concerned that such surgery may exploit vulnerable women," it said.

Ted Weaver, chairman of the college's women's health committee, said most of the operations cost at least 10,000 dollars (9,500 US), which he described as an "extraordinary amount of money".

"We feel these operations might prey on people with insecurities and fears who actually need psychological help," he told Australian Associated Press.

"They are also not very anatomically-based and have the potential to cause serious harm."

Doctors in the United States and Britain have raised similar concerns about the surgery.

http://apnews.myway.com/

WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 5.7 percent in July as employers cut 51,000 jobs, dashing the hopes of an influx of young people looking for summer work.

Payroll cuts weren't as deep as the 72,000 predicted by economists, however. And, job losses for both May and June were smaller than previously reported.

July's reductions marked the seventh straight month where employers eliminated jobs. The economy has lost a total of 463,000 jobs so far this year.

8/1/2008 2:08 PM

http://tech.slashdot.org/

Test Selling "Last Mile" Fiber to Homeowners Under Way in Canada

Ars Technica is covering an interesting pilot program taking place in Ottawa, CA. 400 homes are being outfitted with fiber optic cables, however, the "last mile" of fiber is going to be sold outright to the homeowners rather than providing internet at a monthly fee. "In the future, it could become commonplace for homes to come with 'tails'. These customer-owned, fiber-optic connections would link them to a network peering point. Without the expense of rolling out last mile infrastructure to every home, many more ISPs could afford to serve a given neighborhood by running wiring to the peering point, leading to more competition and lower prices. Perhaps best of all, the growth of customer-owned fiber could make debates over "open access" and network neutrality moot, as robust telecom competition should prevent the worst of the monopolistic behavior exhibited by telco and cable incumbents. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Jobless claims rise

Some economists believe that the US is already in a recession and the latest unemployment figures have compounded that belief.

Figures from the Department of Labor showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefit last week hit a five-year high.

Jobless claims reached 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week.

"I think the most troubling thing out of all the numbers this morning is the (jobless) claims number. If that doesn't convince people we're in a recession, then nothing will," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston.

The most common definition of a recession is two consecutive three-month periods of negative growth.

Officially in the US, a recession has not taken place until the National Bureau of Economic Research says this is the case, but this decision may not come for two years.

"We're in a recession," said Mr Macintosh. "I don't know how they get the 1.9% [growth figure] in the second quarter."

7/31/2008 10:55 AM

http://www.fox11az.com/

Doctors may have found a way to destroy HIV

HOUSTON -- There is real hope that what’s happening in a Houston lab might lead to a cure for HIV.

“We have found an innovative way to kill the virus by finding this small region of HIV that is unchangeable,” Dr. Sudhir Paul of the University of Texas Medical School at Houston said.

Dr. Paul and Dr. Miguel Escobar aren’t talking about just suppressing HIV – they’re talking about destroying it permanently by arming the immune system with a new weapon lab tests have shown to be effective.

Ford Stuart has been HIV positive for 15 years. He’s on a powerful drug cocktail that keeps the disease in check.

“I’m on four different medications. Three of them are brand new, and it’s the first time that I’ve ever been non-detectible,” Stuart said. “I’m down to about – just for the HIV – about nine pills per day, five in the morning and four at night.”

But Stuart knows HIV mutates, and eventually it will learn how to outsmart his medications.

“The virus is truly complex and has many tricks up its sleeve,” Paul said.

But Dr. Paul thinks he’s cracked a code.

“We’ve discovered the weak spot of HIV,” he said.

Paul and his team have zeroed in on a section of a key protein in HIV’s structure that does not mutate.

“The virus needs at least one constant region, and that is the essence of calling it the Achilles heel,” Paul said.

That Achilles heel is the doctors’ way in.  They take advantage of it with something called an abzyme.

It’s naturally produced by people, like lupus patients. When they applied that abzyme to the HIV virus, it permanently disarmed it.

“What we already have in our hand are the abzymes that we could be infusing into the human subjects with HIV infection, essentially to move the virus,” Paul said.

Basically, their idea could be used to control the disease for people who already have it and prevent infection for those at risk.

The theory has held up in lab and animal testing.  The next step is human trials.

Meanwhile, every day in Houston, three people are diagnosed with HIV.

The doctors still need funding to launch human trials.  In the world of HIV research, that’s often where things fall apart.

“Clinical trials are very expensive,” Paul said.

“That is the worry of the researcher. This is what nightmares are made of – that after 30 years of work, you find it doesn’t work,” Paul said.

But so far, it is working.

“This is the holy grail of HIV research, to develop a preventative vaccine,” Paul said.

“If we can get the viral loads down to a manageable level, that will preclude the need for these conventional drugs,” Escobar said.

Still, even if everything goes well, it’s at least five years before the research could help people with HIV.

The doctors know people like Ford Stuart are waiting.

“There are so many people struggling with the disease because it affects not only your body, but also your psyche, how you perceive yourself,” he said.

If nothing else, the research is promising for the tens of millions waiting for a cure.

7/29/2008 1:27 PM

http://www.pcworld.com/

The Best TV on the Web

Today, the Net has almost as many television viewing options as your cable company. But how do you find stuff that's worth watching? Here are our choices for must-stream TV.

The Aggregators

The Portals

The Networks

7/24/2008 10:32 AM

http://www.cnn.com/

Ladies: 5 ways to get your sex life going

·  Story Highlights

·  Getting help for women's sexual problems can be complicated process

·  Some erectile dysfunction drugs used "off label" have helped some women

·  Herbs including ashwagandha, astragalus, panax ginseng, are sometimes helpful

·  Experimental drugs being tested in clinical trials may be an option

ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- Sexually dysfunctional women in the United States are, well, mostly out of luck.

Unlike men, there are no approved drugs to take. If you go strictly by the rules, the best medical science has to offer is counseling, or a device that applies suction to your clitoris, or physical therapy for your vagina. While not to diminish these choices, where's that convenient, little blue pill for women?

That's what Joanne wanted to know. This isn't her real name, but she's a 26-year-old nurse at the Cleveland Clinic who felt no sex drive -- nothing, nada, zilch -- for eight years. She wasn't happy, and neither was her boyfriend.

When Joanne asked her gynecologist for help, she told her to talk to her psychiatrist. Her psychiatrist said her antidepressants were to blame -- they're known to decrease libido in about a third to a half of women, experts say.

"My psychiatrist just kind of shrugged her shoulders," Joann says. "It was just like, well, that's a side effect of the drug. That's just the way it is."

Finally, fate intervened on behalf of Joann's sex life. Last year, the anti-depressants she was taking stopped working, and her psychiatrist had to switch her to a new one. "All of a sudden, my sex drive went through the roof. It was awesome. It was wonderful," she says.

But it wasn't perfect, or even close to it. Probably because of her long-dormant sex drive, Joanne could get sexually excited, but couldn't reach orgasm. Again, after being shuffled around to various doctors, Joanne ended up with a urogynecologist at the Cleveland Clinic.

That doctor prescribed the anti-impotence drug, Cialis. At first Joanne thought it strange to take a drug meant for a man. But she tried it, and she says it's helped somewhat. "I'm still not able to achieve orgasm, but I'm getting closer each time," Joanne says. "We're working with changing the dosage."

Don't Miss

Getting help for women's sexual problems is often a long and complicated road. "This is an area that's highly neglected," says Dr. Sharon Parish, an internist at the Albert Einstein School of Medicine who treats sexually dysfunctional women. "Many primary care doctors have no idea what to do."

So if you want help for your sexual problems, you may have to make suggestions to your doctor. "I feel like if I hadn't aggressively pursued it, I'd still be stuck in the same spot," Joanne says.

Here are some treatments for sexual dysfunction you can discuss with your doctor.

1. Impotence drugs such as Viagra, Levitra and Cialis

Some studies, like one out this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association, show they work for some women with sexual problems; others have shown they don't work.

A woman's biggest hurdle could be finding a doctor who'll prescribe them, since they're approved by the FDA only for men.

The solution: Be frank with your doctor. Ask if he or she is willing to consider prescribing these drugs "off label." Be clear that you recognize these medicines have not been approved for women, and that you want to know about the risks and benefits.

2. Testosterone

Experts we talked to said taking testosterone has helped many of their female patients. "It not only helps with sex drive, it will also help with arousal," says Dr. Cynthia Brewer, a clinical associate at the Center for Specialized Women's Health at the Cleveland Clinic.

Testosterone, produced naturally by both men and women, boosts libido. Synthetic testosterone, however, has been approved only for use with men. In 2004, the FDA declined to approve a testosterone patch for women, saying it hadn't been thoroughly tested.

As with Viagra and its cousins, if you're interested in possibly trying testosterone, tell your doctor you know it's off label, and you'd like to discuss the benefits and risks for women -- knowing that not all the risks are fully understood.

There's one big hitch: Testosterone is available only in men's doses, which are way too high for women. You'll need a doctor who's familiar with how to fit the dose to a woman. There's no one central place to find doctors who specialize in female sexual dysfunction, but you can start at the American Urological Association, or at the International Pelvic Pain Society.

3. Arginine

Some doctors suggest using a cream with arginine, an amino acid that's supposed to increase blood flow.

"It's supposed to act like Viagra," says Brewer. "I saw one patient try it, and it had benefits. For another it didn't. Women can try it and decide for themselves."

4. Anti-stress herbs

You don't have to be Dr. Ruth to know that when you're under stress, you're not in the mood for love. "Stress levels will affect a woman's libido. We're more sensitive to stress than our male counterparts," says Dr. Esther Konigsberg, medical director of the Family Practice Center of Integrative Health and Healing in Burlington, Ontario.

Konigsberg often suggests these anti-stress herbs to her patients with sexual problems: ashwagandha, astragalus, panax ginseng. Licorice can also be used for stress, but she says your physician must monitor your potassium levels.

5. Experimental medicines

"There are a few investigational drugs in the pipeline for both pre- and post-menopausal women," says Sheryl Kingsberg, a clinical psychologist and chief of the division of behavioral medicine at Case Western Reserve Medical School.

Health Library

While you can't get these on the open market, women can try to join a clinical trial. Two experimental drugs, called flibanserin and bremelanotide, work on the brain to increase arousal. A third, Libigel, is a gel that boosts testosterone.

The National Institutes of Health has a list of clinical trials for female sexual dysfunction.

And the most important rule: Don't wait for your doctor to ask you about sexual problems. "Women should feel empowered to bring up the topic first, because lots of physicians aren't comfortable bringing it up themselves," Kingsberg says.

Also, be aware that drugs won't help every woman with a sex problem. Kingsberg says drugs have helped about half of her post-menopausal patients, and about 20 percent of her pre-menopausal patients. The rest, she said, benefited from counseling.

7/23/2008 11:27 AM

http://biz.yahoo.com/

It was a striking split for Bush and congressional Republicans, many of whom are angrily opposed to the housing legislation, which they call a handout for irresponsible homeowners and unscrupulous lenders.

At a closed-door meeting Wednesday morning, House Republicans denounced the plan, although it's clear they don't have enough votes to prevent it from becoming law.

Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, the minority leader, said he was "deeply disappointed" at Bush's decision to sign the bill.

"We must take responsible steps to ensure our financial and housing markets are sound, but the Democrats' bill represents a multibillion dollar bailout for scam artists and speculative lenders at the expense of American taxpayers," he said in a statement.

And it increases the statutory limit on the national debt by $800 billion, to $10.6 trillion.

http://www.iht.com/

The struggling automaker, reacting to what it sees as a rapid and permanent shift in consumer tastes brought on by high gas prices, plans to unveil its new direction on Thursday, when it will report quarterly earnings.

Among the changes, Ford is expected to announce that it will convert three of its North American assembly plants from trucks to cars, according to people familiar with the plans.

United States vehicle sales have slumped 10 percent so far this year, with Ford down 14 percent, and the industry is headed for its worst annual sales in more than a decade.

Moreover, gasoline at $4 a gallon, or $1.06 a liter, in the United States and a weak economy have battered the market for big SUV's and pickups, and sent automakers scrambling to revamp their product lineups.

7/22/2008 7:54 AM

http://www.bloomberg.com/

``By almost any measure, the U.S. economy and business environment are much weaker than the assumptions'' the company had in January, Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Chenault said today in a conference call. ``Unemployment rates took the largest jump in over twenty years. Home prices declined at the fastest rate in decades and consumer confidence is at one of its all-time low points.''

``We are seeing very affluent people who have had historically very, very strong spending history with us cutting back,'' Chenault said.

Stressed consumers are tapping plastic as access to home- equity loans falls off, New York-based Moody's said in a February report.

Consumer prices surged 1.1 percent in June on higher food and fuel prices, more than analysts had expected, the Labor Department said this month. The cost of living rose 5 percent in the year leading to June, the biggest increase since 1991.

http://www.physorg.com/

22 percent of the U.S. electricity consumption is lighting.

7/17/2008 6:58 PM

http://www.investopedia.com/

Surviving Bear Country

A bear market refers to a decline in stock prices of at least 15-20%, coupled with pessimistic sentiment underlying the market. Clearly no stock investor looks forward to these periods. Don't despair, there is hope! In this article we will walk you through some of the most important investment strategies and mindsets that one can use to limit losses - or even make gains - while the stock market is performing in such a manner.

 

Be Realistic!
First off, having a realistic mindset is one the most important things to do during an economic slowdown. Remember that it's normal for the stock market to have negative years - it's all part of the business cycle.

After a raging bull market, it's easy to forget the bad times. Take, for example, the late 1990s; it was a time of spectacular growth in the equity markets, punctuated by gains in the S&P 500 of 33.4%, 28.6% and 21.0% in 1997, 1998 and 1999 respectively. Historically, the market has grown around 8-10% per year (depending on whose numbers you use). To expect the market to grow at a 20%+ rate forever goes against everything we can learn from history. Occasional slowdowns are inevitable.

If you are a long-term investor (meaning a time horizon of 10+ years), one option is to just ignore the market and go on with business as usual. By this we mean investing in a regular, mechanical fashion known as dollar-cost averaging. By purchasing shares regardless of price, you end up buying shares at a cheap price when the market is down. Over the long run your cost will "average down" and you'll be better of in the end - at least that's the theory.

Where to Invest in Bear Country
There are a number of things you can do to protect yourself from bears - and maybe even eke out some gains. Let's take a look:

  1. Play Dead - Stay on the Sidelines
    During a bear market, the bears rule and bulls don't stand a chance. There's an old saying that the best thing to do during a bear market is to play dead - it's the same protocol as if you meet a real grizzly in the woods. Fighting back would be very dangerous. By staying calm and not making any sudden moves, you'll save yourself from becoming a bear's lunch.

    Playing dead in financial terms means putting a larger portion of your portfolio on the sidelines in the form of money market securities. In a bull market, it is detrimental to have uninvested cash around because it isn't working to get the best potential return. This isn't true in a bear market because cash will hold its value (and earn at least some interest) when stocks head south. When the right buying opportunity comes along, you'll have the flexibility to go for it. Of course, this means you have to be timing the market to some extent, a task that is tough, if not impossible, to do precisely. However, the point is that during a bear market, even if you take some cash out of the market later rather than sooner, this may still prove to be a good decision if the bears rule for a sustained period.
  2. Value Stocks
    Bear markets can provide great opportunities for investors. The trick is to know what you are looking for. Beaten up, battered, underpriced: these are all descriptions of stocks during a bear market. Value investors often view a bear market as a buying opportunity because the valuations of good companies get hammered down along with the poor companies and sit at very attractive valuations. However, value investing is an art; not every stock in a bear market is a bargain, but this is a time when some real bargains can definitely arise. Take Warren Buffett, for example. He often builds up his position in some of his  favorite stocks during less than cheery times in the market because he knows that the market's manic-depressive nature can punish even good companies more than warranted. (To learn more about the art of value investing check out our Guide To Stock Picking Strategies.)
  3. Short Selling
    Another approach to a bear market is to adopt a more aggressive strategy. A short position allows an investor to profit as the stock heads downward. Keep in mind that the ability to profit on the other side of a stock is accompanied by substantial risks, mainly the fact that, in theory, you could lose a lot more that 100% of your initial investment by taking a short position in a company. (To learn more about short selling check out our Short Selling Tutorial.)
  4. Bonds and Asset Allocation
    Asset allocation proves itself during times of stock market underperformance. During economic boom times, investors are kicking themselves for not being all in equities. The exact opposite is true during times of economic hardship and stock market downturns. Having a percentage of your portfolio spread among stocks, bonds, cash and alternative assets is the core of diversification. How you slice up your portfolio depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon, goals, etc. Every investor's situation is different. (For more on this subject see the following article: Portfolio Protection In Diversification And Discipline.)
  5. Defensive Industries
    There are equity securities that generally perform better than the overall market during bad times. These industries have become known as defensive industries, or non-cyclical industries, because they refer to the defense they provide your portfolio in times when the stock market plummets. Here we are talking about the companies that reside within the industries that provide goods and services that consumers, governments and the economy as a whole will need come rain or shine.

    A simple example would be household non-durables (things that get used up quickly) like toothpaste, shampoo, shaving cream, etc. Regardless of whether the economy is booming, people will still need to brush their teeth, wash their hair and shave. Despite this, there is still an element of stock selection within historically defensive industries. (For more on this topic check out Cyclical Vs. Non-Cyclical Stocks.)


Conclusion
As all these tips suggest, caution is the name of the game. By having your money on the sidelines or invested in bond funds, value stocks, defensive industries and, under certain circumstances, on the short side of a stock you'll be well-positioned to endure a bear market much more gracefully. Adopting strategies like dollar-cost averaging, staying realistic and avoiding panic will also help you keep your assets out of harm's way.

 

7/13/2008 1:39 PM

http://commfaculty.fullerton.edu/

Digital Hegemony: The Clash Between Words and Pictures

It's been said that a picture's worth 1,000 words. many have said that the Chinese philosopher, Confucius said it in 500 BC. But what kind of picture was Confucius talking about? Probably a simple line drawing. And as it turns out, in most word processing programs, 1,000 words is about 11K---equivalent to a simple line drawing. But when Hollywood digitizes a frame for a special effect, a single frame is about a 40 Meg file. So, a picture today is worth about 25 million words!

Frederick Barnard in 1927 is actually to have made up the quote so companies would buy streetcar advertising cards that were loaded with pictures from his company. [See 1000 Words]. To his credit, he used actual Chinese letters for his phony quotation. But when translated, the words are not:

A picture's worth a thousand words, but

A picture's meaning can express 10,000 words.

The first version sets up a clash between words and pictures, while the second, an equivalency.

A picture is not literally the same as any number of words, but its meaning can inspire thousands of words. So the quotation, regardless of its origination, suggests that a picture is filled with words---every picture tells a story---while every word forms a picture.

7/8/2008 11:18 AM

http://pajamasmedia.com/

It is not an exaggeration to claim that the radicals belonging to the secretive society called “Hojjatieh,” who are devoted to the 12th Imam, have taken control of all vital positions in Iran. Ayatollah Janati, the head of the Guardian Council in charge of interpreting the constitution, supervising elections, and approving of candidates running for public office, has been very vocal about his opposition to the West: “We are anti-American and we are America’s enemy,” and “Non-Muslims are animals roaming the planet.” They believe that the 12th Imam supports their agenda of obtaining nuclear weapons and destroying Israel in order to start the chaos necessary for the final destruction of what they see as American imperialism and Israeli Zionism.

Former CIA Agent in Iran Comes In from the Heat

The men who ordered the destruction of the Pan Am flight over Lockerbie and the bombings of the Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon, the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, and the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia are pursuing the nuclear program in Iran and with one goal in mind: to obtain The Bomb.

And they want to destroy you.

After the Iranian Revolution, I was an officer in the Revolutionary Guards. I was also a spy working for the CIA, code name Wally. My position in the Guards gave me access to the Khomeini regime’s deep secrets and a firsthand look at the unfolding horror: torture, rapes, executions, assassinations, suicide bombers, training of terrorists, and the transfer of arms and explosives to other countries to support terrorist attacks. I risked my life and my family’s trying to expose this regime because I believed it should be stopped. Once again I incur such risks to bring awareness that lack of action endangers the world.

In the mid-80s, I reported to the CIA that the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence unit had information that Saddam Hussein had made a strategic decision to acquire nuclear arms. I heard this from several sources within the Guards and also in a conversation with a member of the intelligence unit, who told me that the Guards were informed through arms dealers in the black market that Saddam was desperately looking for an atomic bomb. It was then that the Guards’ commanders and Iranian leadership decided to go nuclear and actively shop for components in the black market because they made a determination that the Iran-Iraq war could not have been won without a nuclear bomb. Mohsen Rezaei, then-commander of the Revolutionary Guards, requested permission from Ayatollah Khomeini to make Iran a nuclear power. Khomeini agreed.

Some years later, while I was stationed in Europe working for the CIA, I met with three Iranian agents who were shopping for nuclear parts. The agents confirmed what I had heard through the Guards: that Hashemi Rafsanjani had promised retaliation for the downing of an Iranian civilian jet by a U.S. warship over the Persian Gulf on July 3, 1988, toward the end of the Iran-Iraq war. According to the U.S government, an inexperienced crew mistakenly identified the Iranian Airbus as an attacking F-14 fighter; 290 people were killed. The agents said it was Rafsanjani who ordered the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland on Dec. 21, 1988, which killed 270 people. They also talked about involvement of a Palestinian man and the radio transmitter that carried the bomb, information that I passed on to the CIA. I made an assessment at that time that Iran had ordered, through surrogates, the bombing of the Pan Am flight.

There was not much of a follow-up on Iran’s involvement in that incident because Rafsanjani had become the president of Iran, and my CIA contact told me to consider Rafsanjani the new king of Iran. It was apparent to me that President George H.W. Bush was going to support and trust Rafsanjani as the new ruler of Iran. He was promised cooperation and good relations by the mullahs, and the U.S. administration and the CIA in turn were convinced that the mullahs were open to a new chapter in Iran-U.S relations.

I believed then, as I do now, that the mullahs would never abandon their ambitions, and that after 29 years of negotiations by Europe and world powers, the world has yet to understand that the mullahs will not change direction or behavior. In the early ’90s, the senior Bush administration and the CIA finally realized they were being duped — the mullahs’ promises never materialized. The CIA asked me to look for an Iranian who could testify that Iran was in the process of making a nuclear bomb. That request was later withdrawn.

Iran remains the main sponsor of terrorism around the world. Iranian consulates, embassies, airlines, and shipping line offices are the main hub for terrorist activities. Money, arms, and explosives are transferred through these centers to fund terrorist groups and jihadists. Quds Force units of the Revolutionary Guards use the Iranian consulates as their command and control centers to plan and carry out assassinations, kidnappings, and terrorist activities. The mullahs even transferred money and arms in state visits using their high-ranking officials, knowing full well that because of diplomatic immunity they would not be subject to search during such visits. As I reported to the CIA, these activities were closely coordinated through Iran’s foreign ministry, the ministry of intelligence, and the Revolutionary Guards.

And then there is the Syrian connection, which facilitates the Revolutionary Guards in training and arming Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, and Hamas, based in the Palestinian Territory. Syrian facilities and political channels are at the Revolutionary Guards’ disposal, expanding their terror network. The mullahs not only support Syria with massive financial aid in hundreds of millions of dollars but also share missile-delivery technology and other military armaments. The Quds Force leadership is in close contact with Syrian military leaders, coordinating terrorist activities throughout the Middle East.

As Iran pursued its nuclear ambitions over the past few years, it needed to keep U.S. forces on the defensive in Iraq so Washington would not think of invading Iran. Tehran’s strategy was to use the mullahs’ connection to the Shiite clergies and population in Iraq that had been built up years before the U.S invasion. The Guards had established Badr brigades that had been expanded into a division with Iraqi recruits during the Iran-Iraq war and had helped Ayatollah Hakim in establishing the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, currently one of Iraq’s most powerful political parties. Its goal is to put as much pressure on U.S. forces through terror attacks as it can so the U.S. administration won’t think of expanding the Iraq war, giving Iran time to accelerate its nuclear research and development. Tehran knows full well it is in a race, and if it is able to perfect the technology, the West will have no choice but to live with a nuclear Iran. It also believes that after the current President Bush, the next U.S. administration (if led by a Democrat) will most likely reduce forces and slowly move out, leaving it for the Iraqis to sort things out, which ultimately will result in Iran’s domination of the region, with catastrophic consequences for the Free World. This has already happened with Hezbollah. Iran armed and trained Hezbollah into a political force in Lebanon which controls events on the ground, limiting the power of the Lebanese government and even confronting Israel as we saw in the 2006 Lebanon war.

Iran’s current defense minister, Mostafa Najjar, was in charge of the Revolutionary Guards forces in Lebanon that facilitated the attack on the Marine Corps barracks in Beirut on Oct. 23, 1983, killing 241 U.S. servicemen with the largest non-nuclear bomb in history. The current deputy defense minister, Ahmad Vahidi, was the commander of the Quds Forces and the chief intelligence officer of the Guards, in charge of the terrorist activities outside of Iran. He had received authorization for taking the fight to the U.S forces and Israel’s interests around the world directly from Imam Khomeini, the supreme leader at the time. The operations in Lebanon were coordinated by these two men.

Four years after that bombing, Iran’s then-minister of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rafiqdoost, boasted that, “Both the TNT and the ideology, which in one blast sent 400 U.S. officers to hell, were provided by Iran.” Vahidi is currently on Interpol’s Most Wanted List for the attack on the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires on July 18, 1994. That attack killed 87 and injured more than 100.

There is also strong evidence of the Quds Forces’ involvement in the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. servicemen and wounded 372 more on June 25, 1996. The attack was carried out by the Iranian-backed Saudi Hezbollah, but led back to the leadership in Tehran. In 2001, U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft said the attack was inspired, supported, and supervised by elements in the Iranian government.

The most radical Islamists control the government in Iran. The Revolutionary Guards’ reach is all-encompassing: they control the vital industries in Iran, serve as ministers in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s cabinet, are members of the Parliament, control events in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territory through their Quds Force, and expand their terror network throughout the world, all the while making inroads in nuclear enrichment and missile-delivery technology.

It is not an exaggeration to claim that the radicals belonging to the secretive society called “Hojjatieh,” who are devoted to the 12th Imam, have taken control of all vital positions in Iran. Ayatollah Janati, the head of the Guardian Council in charge of interpreting the constitution, supervising elections, and approving of candidates running for public office, has been very vocal about his opposition to the West: “We are anti-American and we are America’s enemy,” and “Non-Muslims are animals roaming the planet.” They believe that the 12th Imam supports their agenda of obtaining nuclear weapons and destroying Israel in order to start the chaos necessary for the final destruction of what they see as American imperialism and Israeli Zionism.

The Revolutionary Guards, with the help of North Korea, are making advancements in their ballistic missile program by expanding the reach of its Shahab missiles and the successful launch of its long range Kavoshgar 1 missile on February 4, 2008. These missiles are capable of reaching Europe. At the same time, they are moving full speed ahead with their nuclear enrichment activity by installing the new IR-2 centrifuges which can enrich uranium at a faster speed than the P1 model. Iran has installed 3,000 P1 centrifuges with the goal of expanding that number to 50,000 within five years. It is estimated that it will take 1,200 of the new centrifuges to produce enough material for one nuclear weapon in one year as opposed to 3000 units of the P1 model that does the same job. The Guards always believed in a dual process in their operations for their military projects, so if one failed or was sabotaged, the other would carry on. They are doing just that. There is word that in the mountainous region of Mazandaran province, in the north of Iran, the Guards are pursuing nuclear arms underground.

Mostafa Najjar, the current defense minister, is overseeing the enrichment process and the missile-delivery advancements, and his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi, is overseeing the proliferation of arms and missiles to terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas in coordination with Syria.

Today, trying to fool the world, the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has publicly declared that pursuit and acquisition of atomic bombs are against Islam. But it was Khamenei himself, along with Hashemi Rafsanjani, Rezaei, and others in the leadership, who ordered the start of research and development of nuclear technology in the mid-80s.

Khamenei put out a statement to the world in 2008 that God would punish Iranians if they did not support the country’s disputed nuclear program, and any stop in the continuation of the nuclear work would be against God’s will. Ahmadinejad, in a recent 2008 speech, told the audience that the “enemy” (referring to the U.S. and Israel) and their superficial power are on a path to destruction, and that the countdown to their total destruction has begun.

The rulers in Iran believe it is their duty to prepare the circumstances for the reappearance of the 12th Imam. “Our Revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, Imam Mahdi,” Ahmadinejad said during a speech in 2005 to leaders from across the country. Shiites believe the reappearance of the 12th Imam will bring justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world. They believe he will reappear when the world has fallen into chaos. It is believed the chaos will start in Afghanistan and then move into Iraq, where there will be blood and destruction everywhere (already in the works) and from there to the world with burning dark clouds (nuclear war). The 12th Imam will then come to destroy the “Dajjal,” the False Messiah, free the world from oppression and aggression, and then bring justice where it will be heaven on earth for many years to come. It is said Jesus will reappear at the same time and fight alongside Mahdi.

Members of the Iranian leadership say they have a “signed contract” with the 12th Imam and are doggedly pursuing nuclear weapons to bring on that catastrophe. Iran’s president, Ahmadinejad, has said that Israel must be destroyed (2005 “World without Zionism” speech, “Israel must be wiped off the map”). This is no idle threat.

If the mullahs’ true intention is to provide electricity through nuclear energy for the Iranians (which they claim) — the same Iranians whose women, students, teachers, writers and union workers are being flogged, beaten, tortured and stoned to death, the same Iranians who are denied a free election or freedom of speech — then why wouldn’t they accept the comprehensive incentive package offered by the world leaders in full, scrap the enrichment process, and bring peace and prosperity to their nation?

The reason is that their belief in Islam’s conquest of the world through the coming of the 12th Imam mandates their actions, and — just as a suicide bomber — they are not even interested in their own survival and cannot be diverted from their chosen path. The question is: Can the world afford to sit idly by and wait for Armageddon?

--

emeka:

rob: are you kidding, Isral and the USA??

Ok so i have been hearing about how evil the war monging neo-cons are.

But heres what i really think.

As long as we continue to Import Oil from the mid-east, WE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE AND BOMB NATIONS for oil. I don’t care who’s in office. Unless you work for code pink or you are Dennis kuscinich.

The US imports 1/3 of its oil from the mid east. Other places like china import as much 50% or more from the mullahs. In case you have had your head in the ground, you would understand that China IS the US economy. From t-bills to trade deficits to importing poison in place of toys to food…in other words they have us by the balls.

Iran’s exports to China grew 16 percent in 2003, making it the latter’s No. 2 oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, according to Chinese government figures.

China’s economy expanded 9.3 percent last year and is growing at a 9 percent rate this year, according to President Hu Jintao. The country’s oil needs could almost double again, to 11 million barrels a day, by 2010, according to a report by Merrill Lynch & Co.

WE HAVE NATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE AREA.

Why should we stop stop stop Iran??
um.. well, If you have been listening to Iranian president Achmadinajad*, you would understand that this guy is a lunatic.

Apart from wanting to wipe the Israelis out, they want to bring back the 12th Imam.

the question is when is the Imam supposed to return?
Twelver Shi’as cite various references from the Qur’an and reports, or Hadith, from Mahdi and the twelve Shi’a Imams with regard to the reappearance of al-Mahdi who would, in accordance with God’s command, bring justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world.
“During the last times, my people will be afflicted with terrible and unprecedented calamities and misfortunes from their rulers, so much so that this vast earth will appear small to them. Persecution and injustice will engulf the earth. The believers will find no shelter to seek refuge from these tortures and injustices. At such a time, God will raise from my progeny a man who will establish peace and justice on this earth in the same way as it had been filled with injustice and distress.”

If Iran gets the nukes, they will put the whole middle east in check. the mullahs intend to plunge the world int chaos. when that happens the west will fall to its knees.

How will they bring the west to its knees?
China ownes out T-bills(over $1 Trillion)
China almosts feeds the US
Apert from Russia, wstrn europe also gets oil from the mullahs. If there is a problem, IT WILL AFFECT CANADA real bad. now what does canada have to do with this?… the UK is one of the big players of the EU. the UK also shares a very special relationship both politically(the queen) and economically(trade). In 2007, Canada and the US traded over $500 Billion of stuff with each other. Imaging if there is a sudden halt to the current remedy.. the Stock market will drop by like 5k in one day, we would be looking at like $300 per barrel. at home here, we would be looking at like $8per gallon or more.

I know some of you would say AIPAC, the bankers and the Military complex are lobbying the US into Iran, but try looking at the bigger picture.

I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH MORE I CAN SAY THIS, BUT WE CAN’T LET THEM HAVE NUKES.

Well some of you non-interventionists could say umm well Israel has nukes.. Israel is yet to promise to wipe out any of its neighbors.

OR

you could say eh.. the founding fathers were non-interventionists, then i will have to remind you that back then, the Founding Fathers didn’t have interests in other nations. In other words, they were quite self-reliant. There was no need to import oil, they didnt depend on china for toys, and weren’t in debt at the rate at which the US is no right now.

7/2/2008 11:49 AM

http://slashdot.org/

RIP LCD Displays. Invented: 1971 - Extinct: 2017

[ #206171 ]

Tuesday July 01, @09:32AM

Flat-panel LCDs, high-output solar cells, nuclear reactor control rods (extinct: 2017 due to the world's indium supply - currently at 6,000 tons, gone) - even galvanized steel (extinct: 2037 - world's zinc supply exhausted) - all gone. Rare-earth lasers? Ditto. Doped semi-conductors? Buh-bye. Automotive and cell-phone electronics, and pcs? Don't throw out that old P1 with the crt just yet ... 15 years from now, it may just be state-of-the-art, as newer boxes succumb to tin whiskers, lack of replacement parts, etc.

Even the Wall Street Journal is starting to "get it".

A Metal Scare to Rival the Oil Scare

Indium, gallium and hafnium are some of the least-known elements on the periodic table, but New Scientist warns that reserves of these low-profile minerals and others like them might soon be exhausted thanks to the demand for flat screens and other high-tech goods. Scientists who have tried to estimate how long the worlds mineral supply can meet global demand have made some gloomy predictions.

Armin Reller, a materials chemist at the University of Augsburg in Germany, estimates that in 10 years the world will run out of indium, used for making liquid-crystal displays for flat-screen televisions and computer monitors. He also predicts that the world will run out of zinc by 2037, and hafnium, an increasingly important part of computer chips, by 2017.

Researchers worry that a supply crunch in some metals and minerals could kill off promising new technologies. René Kleijn, a chemist at Leiden University in the Netherlands, says that a new design for solar panels that would make them twice as efficient as most current panels might not get built for lack of gallium and indium. Estimates of reserves vary widely, and scientists say it is difficult in some cases to accurately forecast demand, says New Scientists David Cohen. Whats more, it is possible that demand for some metals will plateau. Tom Graedel, a professor of industrial ecology at Yale University, found that per capita consumption of iron leveled off around 1980, suggesting that at some point people in technologically advanced societies might only need so much of any one metal. But Prof. Graedel notes that this hasnt been the case with copper, a crucial component of wiring and computer chips. He predicts that by 2100, global demand for copper might outstrip mineable supplies.

If the most dire predictions are true, recycling of rare metals will be the only way to manufacture some gadgets and machines as demand grows in the developing world. Mr. Kleijn says that a lot of copper could be freed up by replacing cities copper pipes with plastic ones. Hazel Prichard, a geologist at the University of Cardiff in the United Kingdom, also is developing ways to extract platinum, a vital component in catalytic converters and fuel cells, from the dust and grime of city streets. Apparently, urban grit contains 1.5 parts per million of platinum.

We run out of gallium and other rare earths.

The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany's University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet's stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.

...

Gallium's atomic number is 31. It's a blue-white metal first discovered in 1831, and has certain unusual properties, like a very low melting point and an unwillingness to oxidize, that make it useful as a coating for optical mirrors, a liquid seal in strongly heated apparatus, and a substitute for mercury in ultraviolet lamps. It's also quite important in making the liquid-crystal displays used in flat-screen television sets and computer monitors.

As it happens, we are building a lot of flat-screen TV sets and computer monitors these days. Gallium is thought to make up 0.0015 percent of the Earth's crust and there are no concentrated supplies of it. We get it by extracting it from zinc or aluminum ore or by smelting the dust of furnace flues. Dr. Reller says that by 2017 or so there'll be none left to use. Indium, another endangered element - number 49 in the periodic table - is similar to gallium in many ways, has many of the same uses (plus some others: it's a gasoline additive, for example, and a component of the control rods used in nuclear reactors) and is being consumed much faster than we are finding it. Dr. Reller gives it about another decade. Hafnium, element 72, is in only slightly better shape. There aren't any hafnium mines around; it lurks hidden in minute quantities in minerals that contain zirconium, from which it is extracted by a complicated process that would take me three or four pages to explain. We use a lot of it in computer chips and, like indium, in the control rods of nuclear reactors, but the problem is that we don't have a lot of it. Dr. Reller thinks it'll be gone somewhere around 2017. Even zinc, commonplace old zinc that is alloyed with copper to make brass, and which the United States used for ordinary one-cent coins when copper was in short supply in World War II, has a Reller extinction date of 2037. (How does a novel called The Death of Brass grab you?)

Zinc was never rare. We mine millions of tons a year of it. But the supply is finite and the demand is infinite, and that's bad news. Even copper, as I noted above, is deemed to be at risk. We humans move to and fro upon the earth, gobbling up everything in sight, and some things aren't replaceable.

http://www.science.org.au/ No more platinum for fuel cells.
http://blog.techfun.org/

Fuel cells?

t has been estimated that if all the 500 million vehicles in use today were re-equipped with fuel cells, operating losses would mean that all the worlds sources of platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unlike with oil or diamonds, there is no synthetic alternative: platinum is a chemical element, and once we have used it all there is no way on earth of getting any more.

The price of indium has already gone up over 1500% in 3 years ... it's needed for that new generation of high-output solar cells, as well as lcd displays. Extinct by 2017.

Armin Reller, a materials chemist at the University of Augsburg in Germany, and his colleagues are among the few groups who have been investigating the problem. He estimates that we have, at best, 10 years before we run out of indium. Its impending scarcity could already be reflected in its price: in January 2003 the metal sold for around $60 per kilogram; by August 2006 the price had shot up to over $1000 per kilogram.

http://www.takeonit.com/

So, got horse and buggy?

NOTE: Also submitted the following summary as a story, since this is both "news for nerds" AND "stuff that matters":

While we bemoan the current oil crisis, this editorial led me to research about a more immediate threat. Ramped-up production of flat-panel displays means the material to make them, as well as other electronics, will be "extinct" by 2017.

The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany's University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet's stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.

More links here.

7/2/2008 9:24 AM

http://news.slashdot.org/

"While we bemoan the current oil crisis, I ran across an editorial that led me to research a more immediate threat. Ramped-up production of flat-panel displays means the material to make them will be 'extinct' by 2017. This goes for other electronics as well. Quoting: 'The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany's University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet's stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.' More links at the journal entry."

http://www.nytimes.com/

Your Brain Lies to You

FALSE beliefs are everywhere. Eighteen percent of Americans think the sun revolves around the earth, one poll has found. Thus it seems slightly less egregious that, according to another poll, 10 percent of us think that Senator Barack Obama, a Christian, is instead a Muslim. The Obama campaign has created a Web site to dispel misinformation. But this effort may be more difficult than it seems, thanks to the quirky way in which our brains store memories — and mislead us along the way.

The brain does not simply gather and stockpile information as a computer’s hard drive does. Facts are stored first in the hippocampus, a structure deep in the brain about the size and shape of a fat man’s curled pinkie finger. But the information does not rest there. Every time we recall it, our brain writes it down again, and during this re-storage, it is also reprocessed. In time, the fact is gradually transferred to the cerebral cortex and is separated from the context in which it was originally learned. For example, you know that the capital of California is Sacramento, but you probably don’t remember how you learned it.

This phenomenon, known as source amnesia, can also lead people to forget whether a statement is true. Even when a lie is presented with a disclaimer, people often later remember it as true.

With time, this misremembering only gets worse. A false statement from a noncredible source that is at first not believed can gain credibility during the months it takes to reprocess memories from short-term hippocampal storage to longer-term cortical storage. As the source is forgotten, the message and its implications gain strength. This could explain why, during the 2004 presidential campaign, it took some weeks for the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign against Senator John Kerry to have an effect on his standing in the polls.

Even if they do not understand the neuroscience behind source amnesia, campaign strategists can exploit it to spread misinformation. They know that if their message is initially memorable, its impression will persist long after it is debunked. In repeating a falsehood, someone may back it up with an opening line like “I think I read somewhere” or even with a reference to a specific source.

In one study, a group of Stanford students was exposed repeatedly to an unsubstantiated claim taken from a Web site that Coca-Cola is an effective paint thinner. Students who read the statement five times were nearly one-third more likely than those who read it only twice to attribute it to Consumer Reports (rather than The National Enquirer, their other choice), giving it a gloss of credibility.

Adding to this innate tendency to mold information we recall is the way our brains fit facts into established mental frameworks. We tend to remember news that accords with our worldview, and discount statements that contradict it.

In another Stanford study, 48 students, half of whom said they favored capital punishment and half of whom said they opposed it, were presented with two pieces of evidence, one supporting and one contradicting the claim that capital punishment deters crime. Both groups were more convinced by the evidence that supported their initial position.

Psychologists have suggested that legends propagate by striking an emotional chord. In the same way, ideas can spread by emotional selection, rather than by their factual merits, encouraging the persistence of falsehoods about Coke — or about a presidential candidate.

Journalists and campaign workers may think they are acting to counter misinformation by pointing out that it is not true. But by repeating a false rumor, they may inadvertently make it stronger. In its concerted effort to “stop the smears,” the Obama campaign may want to keep this in mind. Rather than emphasize that Mr. Obama is not a Muslim, for instance, it may be more effective to stress that he embraced Christianity as a young man.

Consumers of news, for their part, are prone to selectively accept and remember statements that reinforce beliefs they already hold. In a replication of the study of students’ impressions of evidence about the death penalty, researchers found that even when subjects were given a specific instruction to be objective, they were still inclined to reject evidence that disagreed with their beliefs.

In the same study, however, when subjects were asked to imagine their reaction if the evidence had pointed to the opposite conclusion, they were more open-minded to information that contradicted their beliefs. Apparently, it pays for consumers of controversial news to take a moment and consider that the opposite interpretation may be true.

In 1919, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes of the Supreme Court wrote that “the best test of truth is the power of the thought to get itself accepted in the competition of the market.” Holmes erroneously assumed that ideas are more likely to spread if they are honest. Our brains do not naturally obey this admirable dictum, but by better understanding the mechanisms of memory perhaps we can move closer to Holmes’s ideal.

6/29/2008 3:26 AM

http://www.nytimes.com/

Since President Bush came to office, our national savings have gone from 6 percent of gross domestic product to 1 percent, and consumer debt has climbed from $8 trillion to $14 trillion.

I continue to be appalled at the gap between what is clearly going to be the next great global industry — renewable energy and clean power — and the inability of Congress and the administration to put in place the bold policies we need to ensure that America leads that industry.

“America and its political leaders, after two decades of failing to come together to solve big problems, seem to have lost faith in their ability to do so,” Wall Street Journal columnist Gerald Seib noted last week. “A political system that expects failure doesn’t try very hard to produce anything else.”

If the old saying — that “as General Motors goes, so goes America” — is true, then folks, we’re in a lot of trouble. General Motors’s stock-market value now stands at just $6.47 billion, compared with Toyota’s $162.6 billion. On top of it, G.M. shares sank to a 34-year low last week.

That’s us. We’re at a 34-year low. And digging out of this hole is what the next election has to be about and is going to be about — even if it is interrupted by a terrorist attack or an outbreak of war or peace in Iraq. We need nation-building at home, and we cannot wait another year to get started. Vote for the candidate who you think will do that best. Nothing else matters.

6/9/2008 11:00 PM

http://www.nydailynews.com/

Hillary Clinton paid a heavy price for presidential run

Eighteen million votes: $212 million. Some 1,926 delegates: $109,823 a pop. Blowing the biggest head start in presidential history: priceless.

From anointed to also-ran, Hillary Clinton spent more money to lose a primary election than any candidate in Democratic Party history.

"The Clinton campaign found itself without adequate money at the beginning of 2008," chief strategist Mark Penn wrote in a published Op-Ed yesterday - but it was enough of a cash stash to fund the causes she championed.

The money raised could have been better spent.

Instead of throwing it at a failed political bid, Clinton could have achieved a lot of her goals.

The former First Lady, an outspoken proponent of family values, might have delivered a much-needed vacation to working families: sending more than 76,000 families of four from New York to California to visit Mickey, Donald and Goofy.

And don't forget the economy.

Instead of throwing cash away, she might have better invested the $11 million she gave her campaign by buying everyone in New York City a Mega Millions ticket.

And she could have bought 9,838 people a new hybrid Toyota Prius, or given out 70.7 million energy-efficient light bulbs.

Remember that gas tax holiday plan? Nearly 53 million gallons of free gas could have been bought with that sum.

And think of Clinton's deep interest in health care: $212 million could've covered 705 artificial heart surgeries. Or, presuming an average price of $20, she could have bought flu vaccines for 10.6 million people - not quite universal, but a darn good start.

If the former First Lady really wanted to push women to the forefront, she could have equipped all 2,300 students at her alma mater, Wellesley College, with a Porsche 911 Carrera. (Should they find themselves late for class, it boasts a top track speed of 174 mph.)

And to show her allegiance to her adopted state of New York, Clinton could have given every one of the 1.24 million students, teachers and staffers in the New York City school system one of the priciest Yankees mementos on MLB.com: the "Mounted Memories New York Yankees Cut-Stone Baseball With Polished Zinc Display."

To thank New York for its support, Clinton could have used the $212 million to treat every Empire Stater to a movie ticket.

Recommended viewing: "The Fall."

6/9/2008 4:57 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Equally we are opposed to gadgets because we are dewy-eyed about the past that they have supposedly destroyed. Last week I spent five hours in the car with my family in heavy half-term traffic. My husband was at the wheel and was listening to sport on the radio. I spent the tedious hours on my BlackBerry and on my laptop. In the back one child was texting friends. Another was watching South Park on the impossibly tiny screen on an iPod. Another was playing Grand Theft Auto on his PSP.

This is family life in 2008, and you could say it was a terrifying study in alienation - a world in which no one communicates any more.

Maybe though, our car journey strikes me as a massive improvement on car journeys of my youth. We used to sit in the back of a Ford Cortina feeling sick. Once "I Spy" had palled we resorted to counting garages on either side of the road. And when we had exhausted that, we bickered over boiled sweets and asked: "Are we nearly there yet?" Do we really want to go back to that?

Here is a quote from a famous writer.

"Everything is now 'ultra'. No one knows himself any more, no one grasps the element in which he lives and works - young people are swept along in the whirlpool of time."

It sounds bang up to date, but that was Goethe in 1825. It was hogwash then and it's hogwash now.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

High times for medicinal marijuana

In California, marijuana is supposed to be prescribed only to people suffering from life-threatening conditions but David Willis finds the reality is quite different.

A Google search revealed plenty of options.

I had typed in medicinal marijuana + Los Angeles and within seconds there was practically smoke coming out of the back of my computer.

Among the seemingly endless stream of entries was the 420 Evaluation Center (420 is a local nickname for marijuana).

It's a "medicinal clinic" where "qualified patients" could obtain a doctor's recommendation allowing them the legal use of marijuana. They offered a $25 discount for new patients. I called and made an appointment for the next day.

The 420 Evaluation Center was in a stucco-fronted brick building opposite a roast beef sandwich shop in a sweaty suburb of Los Angeles known as the San Fernando Valley.

Panic attacks

One of the walls was taken up with a Salvador Dali poster showing swans merged with elephants: perfect for those who needed a hallucinogenic fix before they got their prescription.

A man behind the counter took my money ($100 for a consultation) and handed me a questionnaire. One section dealt with my medical condition.

According to the rules you have to be virtually at death's door, suffering from cancer, Aids or multiple sclerosis or in chronic pain in order to qualify. The best I could come up with was anxiety. I am the anxious type after all.

Soon, the doctor appeared - a softly-spoken Vietnamese man who introduced himself as Dr Do.


He wore a white lab coat and scrubs and led me into a spartan room where he proceeded to take my pulse and blood pressure before asking precisely how long I had been anxious.


"Several years," I told him.


"Do you suffer panic attacks?" "Not really."

Dr Do wrote panic attacks in his notebook. We spent a few minutes shooting the breeze about Asian cuisine and he signed a prescription for medicinal marijuana, valid for a year.

And that was it. Done and dusted in less than 10 minutes.

Aladdin's Cave

My friend Will was waiting for me when I got outside.

A concert oboist who once performed with Pavarotti, he had developed a deep affection for the herb during his time on the road, yet managed to conceal it from his fellow musicians even after once losing concentration in the middle of the Messiah and playing all the notes in the wrong order.

There was another episode - during a performance of Stravinsky - in which he became convinced he was Petrushka but that incident he blames on rogue hash brownies.

"You see, I told you," Will beamed. "This place is like Amsterdam."

Will was keen to show me where he goes to buy his cannabis. It was a short drive from Dr Do's and recently voted dispensary of the year by one of the pot smokers' magazines (the most famous of which is, incidentally, called High Times).

It was a nondescript building next to a Thai restaurant which contained cosy couches and a big picture of the Mona Lisa on the wall with that inscrutable grin and a fat joint in her right hand. Who said pot smokers do not have a sense of humour?

Will and I were buzzed through a metal gate by an attendant, who himself looked slightly buzzed, and ushered into a small room which could pass as an Aladdin's Cave of narcotics.

Beneath a glass-topped counter were dozens of different varieties of weed laid out in plastic pots, and alongside them an arsenal of drug-taking paraphernalia including pipes and infusion implements, all in iridescent colours.

The different varieties of dope were listed on a white board. They bore exotic names such as Maui Mist, Blue Dream and my personal favourite, Super Train Wreck.

Vending machines

My prescription did not place a limit on the amount of marijuana I could buy a day and I asked the man with the trippy smile behind the counter what he recommended for anxiety. He pointed me in the direction of one called Purple Kush.

"How much should I take?" The naivety of the question seemed to catch my moon-faced pot sommelier off guard. "I guess start with two or three puffs and see how you go..."

The benefits of medicinal marijuana to the seriously ill have been widely chronicled. People with conditions such as cancer, arthritis and Aids say the drug helps make their symptoms bearable.

With more than 200 dispensaries now operating legitimately, the street dealers are all but obsolete and the state is happy because it collects the taxes.

Yet with some dispensaries installing vending machines in order to deal with out-of-hours customers you have to wonder if the situation is in danger of becoming a farce.

Getting on for 250,000 Californians are said to carry prescriptions for medicinal marijuana, and who knows how many of them - like me - suffer from little more than the occasional bout of self-doubt.

I did not buy any weed and I am thinking that one day I will frame my prescription and put it on the wall. In the meantime - to paraphrase Bill Clinton - if I smoke, I certainly won't inhale.

6/8/2008 6:19 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

A poll by the UK's Daily Telegraph website in late May showed that in Britain, France, Germany and Russia, more people regarded the United States as a force for evil than for good. Only in Italy did the US fare better.

And Senator Barack Obama was the clear preference (52%) across the five countries to be the next US president.

This indicates that the mood in Europe is one for change, though it remains true that countries of the former Soviet bloc have much more positive views of the Bush administration than those in Western Europe.

Future of EU and Nato

The European Union itself, like a lumbering behemoth, does not seem to know where it is going.

The fact is that EU governments retain the right to formulate their own foreign policies. The corollary of that is that, diplomatically, Europe as a whole punches below its economic weight. This gives the US a much freer hand as Europe is often divided.

At the end of the day, the US and Europe are still tied together by global interests, among them economics and international terrorism. Nato seems to be enduring, perhaps under the new uncertainties about Russia, though in an ideal Europe, there would be no need for it.

6/6/2008 11:00 AM

http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/

Bob Dylan: He's got everything he needs, he's an artist, he don't look back

The legendary singer/songwriter has an art exhibition opening in London next week and loves to talk about it. But you risk his 1,000-yard stare if you touch on his personal life

Odense, Denmark, and the not-quite-grand hotel that for the next two nights will be a home away from home for Bob Dylan. He arrived here from Reykjavik, four days after his 67th birthday and in the first stages of a lengthy itinerary that will take him through Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Austria, Italy, France, Andorra, Spain and Portugal between now and mid-July. To his irritation, others long ago gave this ongoing schedule the title of The Never-Ending Tour (habitually, he plays upwards of 100 concerts each year, often considerably more). As he prefers to see it: “I'm just making my living by plying a trade.”

Achieving my promised audience with the legendary singer-songwriter and now exhibited painter proves to be a two-step process. First, his road manager takes me from the lobby to a darkened, sparsely furnished meeting room in which an orange-haired woman is sitting straight-backed and reading a novel. “If you could just wait here,” he begins, then disappears, his mobile clamped to his ear. Left alone, I introduce myself to the woman but she merely smiles enigmatically and continues with her book. Who is or was she? I still have no idea.

Minutes later I am collected, taken up a flight of stairs and ushered towards a door that is ajar. As I approach it is opened by Dylan, who welcomes me inside with a soft handshake and a volley of courtesies: “How have you been?” [I have interviewed him twice before, in 1997 and 2001], “What's been going on in your life?” and “Are you OK with the dark [here in what appears to be his bedroom, all the curtains have been drawn]?”

My eyes adjusting to this premature twilight, I take in the fact that he is wearing boots, jeans and a loose sweatshirt, its sleeves pushed up above the elbows. That famous face is heavily lined and pale, but always warm and quick to smile. As we take seats at right angles to each other, he presses his fingertips into his grey-flecked curls and vigorously rubs his scalp, as if to do so will focus his mind.

I place on the low table between us the book that I have brought with me. “Heh, heh, heh!” Dylan chuckles, reaching out for it. “This is pretty handsome stuff.” He is looking at a straight-from-the-presses copy of The Drawn Blank Series, produced by the Halcyon Gallery to coincide with the exhibition of that name in Bruton Street, Mayfair. Will he visit the show itself? “I don't know,” he says, seemingly transfixed by the book's cover, his voice the familiar rasp that has inspired a million amateur impressionists. “I have all these dates to play. It might not be possible. I'd like to. We'll have to see.”

The haphazard process leading to the London show began nearly 20 years ago when he was approached by an editor at the American publishing company Random House. “They'd seen some of my sketches somewhere and asked if I'd like to do a whole book. Why not, you know? There was no predetermined brief. ‘Just deal with the material to hand, whatever that is. And do it however you want. You can be fussy, you can be slam-bang, it doesn't matter.' Then they gave me a drawing book, I took it away with me and turned it back in again, full three years later.”

Published in 1994 under the abbreviated title Drawn Blank, the resultant images had been executed both on the hoof while he was touring and in a more structured way in studios, using models (“Just anyone who'd be open to doing it”) and lights. What was going on in his life during that three-year period to inform or provide a back story to the work? “Just the usual,” Dylan shrugs, fixed in the hunkered-forward, hands-clasped position he will maintain for most of our time together. “I try to live as simply as is possible and was just drawing whatever I felt like drawing, whenever I felt like doing it. The idea was always to do it without affectation or self-reference, to provide some kind of panoramic view of the world as I was seeing it.”

Built up of work that is often contemplative, sometimes exuberant but consistently technically accomplished and engaging, that view is of train halts, diners and dockyards, barflies, dandies and uniformed drivers glimpsed in New Orleans or New York, Stockholm or South Dakota. And of women. We're left in no doubt that Dylan likes women. “They weren't actually there at the same time,” he notes quickly, pointing, when his page-turning reveals the painting Two Sisters, its subjects lounging, one clothed, the other naked but for her bra. “They posed separately and I put them together afterwards.”

There was little precedent within his own family for this talented eye, it seems. “Instead of playing cards, my maternal grandmother would do these little still lives, but I can't really say that had any influence on what I've done.” Art formed no part of his formal education and he recalls there being no public galleries in the Minnesotan communities (first Duluth, then Hibbing) of his youth. “I was in my teens before I started to see books of paintings in the school library - frescoes or the work of Michelangelo, that kind of thing. And I didn't really see the stuff that properly had an impact on me - Matisse, Derain, Monet, Gauguin - 'til later on, when I was in my twenties.”

By then, Dylan the university dropout and fledgeling folk performer had gravitated to New York, where he quickly discovered the Metropolitan Museum of Art. “It was overwhelming for me at the time, the immensity and sheer variety of stuff on display. The first exhibition I saw there was of Gauguin paintings and I found I could stand in front of any one of them for as long as I'd sit at the movies, yet not get tired on my feet. I'd lose all sense of time. It was an intriguing thing.” It was as his music career gathered pace that he found himself first trying his own hand at drawing. “Mostly when I was on a train or in a café, just to make sense of what was in my immediate world. I found it relaxed me. Some of the stuff I kept, some I didn't.”

It was sketches completed in this manner and spirit that, years later, came to the attention of Random House and led to that commission. However, little accord was given to the book on its eventual publication. “The critics didn't want to review it. The publisher told me they couldn't get past the idea of another singer who dabbled. You know, like, ‘David Bowie, Joni Mitchell, Paul McCartney...Everyone's doing it these days.' No one from the singing profession was going to be taken seriously by the art world, I was told, but that was OK. I wasn't expecting anything phenomenal to happen. It's not like the drawings were revolutionary. They weren't going to change anyone's way of thinking.”

But years later there came an approach from the Chemnitz City Art Gallery in Germany. Ingrid Mossinger, its director and a fan of the 1965 album Bringing it all Back Home, had felt it likely that someone as adept as Dylan in the use of metaphoric and abstract language might also draw or paint. Her research led her to the book Drawn Blank, in the preface of which Dylan wrote of hoping to “eventually complete” its collection of sketches. She encouraged him to do just that.

The method used to turn them into the paintings about to go on exhibition in London involved making digital scans of the original drawings and enlarging and then transferring them on to heavy paper ready for reworking. Dylan then experimented with treating individual images with a variety of colours. “And doing so subverted the light. Every picture spoke a different language to me as the various colours were applied.”

Attempts have been made to pin down and name his influences. When I mention this, Dylan wrongly takes it as a suggestion that the work is pastiche or somehow derivative. “I haven't trained in any academy where you learn how to do something in the style of Degas or Van Gogh, or how to copy Da Vinci,” he retorts. “I don't have that facility to copy note for note. Influenced by? If I had the ability to paint like any of those guys I might see the similarity, but I don't. If there is anything it's just by accident and instinctive.” Which is all that any critic was suggesting, after all. But, it seems, he is as uncomfortable at having his paintings deconstructed as he is his songs.

Of the latter process, he said on our last meeting: “These so-called connoisseurs of Bob Dylan music? I don't feel they know a thing or have an inkling of who I am and what I'm about. That such people have spent so much time thinking about who? Me? Get a life, please.”

Today he expresses similar impatience with the critics who have read into his art a variety of underlying feelings - anonymity, transience, rootlessness, even loneliness. Reaching again for the Halcyon book. “Let's have a look, shall we [the pages fall open at Woman in Red Lion Pub, her dress executed in a vivid yellow]? Do you see loneliness in that? Or that [Six Women]? I don't. And this one's just a pastoral scene [Sunday Afternoon]. What's rootless, transient and lonely about that? It's a mystery why anybody would say or think such a thing.”

And the idea that, in framing various images with windows and doors, he is revealing himself as a perennial outsider, forced by his name and status to observe the world rather than connect directly with it? Dylan rolls his eyes. “I just find it to be less satisfying to have the ends [by which he means the edges of the image] being endless, so I'll put a window there or block it in some way. It just looks better to me that way.” So he would prefer a purely emotional, instinctive response to the work rather than any searching for themes and insights? “If it pleases the eye of the beholder...There's no more to it than that, to my mind. Or even if it repels the eye. Either one is fine.”

On both our previous meetings, Dylan voiced his disdain for those completists who wish to see every scrap of paper he has written on or hear every studio out-take that he has rejected. With that in mind, I ask if it was a big deal for him to sign his name on each of the Drawn Blank paintings. “Yes!” he exclaims, laughing. “I finally grew into it, but yes, it was.” And did he perhaps practise his signature in advance? “I did, because it's tricky getting it just right. Finally you think, ‘Oh, to hell...' and just go for it, like you're writing a cheque or something.” He has, he says, no particular favourite among the images. “It's the same as with the early songs...In the Sixties, by the time they came out we were way past the recorded versions and were saying, ‘No, don't release that. We are playing it this way now.' So it is with the art. I find myself thinking, ‘I could have done this or that to make it better'. In the end, though, you've just got to let the work go and hope you'll know to do better next time.”

When I ask if he finds the art establishment preferable to the one he is more used to, Dylan grins and pulls a face of mock disgust. “The music world's a made-up bunch of hypocritical rubbish. I know from publishing a memoir [2004's Chronicles Volume One] that the book people are a whole lot saner. And the art world? From the small steps I've taken in it, I'd say, yeah, the people are honest, upfront and deliver what they say. Basically, they are who they say they are. They don't pretend. And having been in the music world most of my life [he laughs again], I can tell you it's not that way. Let's just say it's less...dignified.”

He tells me that he continued to draw for his pleasure after the Random House commission was fulfilled. “Not as intensely but yes, I have sketchbooks from the years since then. Of course, what I release to the public and what I keep for myself are two different things.”

He has had proposals for two future series of paintings, the first of which would involve having celebrities sit for him. “I could pick the names but don't want to. I'd rather be given a list and have someone else contact the people to find out if they're up for it. So I'm waiting to see who they might be thinking of. I assume it's movers and shakers. You know, inventors, mathematicians, scientists, business people, actors...We'll see.

“But what interests me more is the idea of a collection based on historically romantic figures. Napoleon and Josephine, Dante and Beatrice, Captain John Smith and Pocahontas, Brad and Angelina [here he laughs]... I could use my own imagination for that. It wouldn't have to be the actual people, obviously.” But the latter two might be delighted to sit for him, no? Dylan chuckles at the possibility. “Maybe. Who knows? All I'll say is that I'm intrigued by the basic idea. Whether or not it comes to fruition, time will tell. This [The Drawn Blank Series] was easy to do because it didn't clash with any other commitments. If something does, then I simply cannot do it.”

By commitments, one presumes Dylan means not just his touring schedule but also his personal and familial relationships. Only the bald facts are known in this regard. He has four grown-up children (Jesse, Anna Lea, Samuel and rock singer Jakob) from a ten-year marriage to former model Sara Lowndes that ended in divorce in 1977. And in 2001 it was revealed by a biographer that he was married from 1986 to 1992 to one of his former backing singers, Carol Dennis, and has another daughter, Desiree, also now an adult, from the union.

But inquiries about his non-work life causes him to shut down. Not even a fact as basic as that of where he lives (his main home is believed to be a mansion on the coast beyond Los Angeles) receives ready validation, and when I ask if he has a studio in which he worked on the paintings, he will offer only, “Well, there are spaces in some of the properties where I can do just about any old thing”, before looking off into the middle distance, awaiting the next question.

Such reticence has earned him a reputation as rock's grumpy old man, a curmudgeon who refuses to appear grateful that he is revered and adored. But whether or not he intends it to do so, such determined self-protection merely enhances the myth and mystery. Today and after spending much of the 1980s through to the mid-1990s out in the critical cold, Dylan's star is higher than at any time since the 1960s, the decade with which he is most closely associated (erroneously in his view). Honours, awards and citations all but rain down upon him these days: it is as if we have all awoken to the fact that we will not see his like again. Not that anyone doubts that he has a long life still to live. “Well, thank you for that!” he notes with a laugh.

For any further insights into his private world we must wait to see if any crumbs are thrown in the next instalment of the intended three-book Chronicles (“I could do more. It wouldn't be a problem in terms of material”), at which he is already at work. Yes, he allows, he was gratified by the critical and commercial success of Volume One. “Especially given the effort that went into it. Writing any kind of book is a lonely thing. You cut yourself off from friends and family to find that necessarily quiet place in your mind. You have to disassociate and detach yourself from just about everything and everybody. I didn't like that part of it at all.

“It took me maybe two years in total. I was touring so much in the beginning, on days off or on a bus, I'd write my thoughts out in longhand or on a typewriter. It was the transcribing of the stuff, the rereading and retelling of it, that was time-consuming and I came to figure that there had to be a better way. I know what that is now. You need a full-time secretary so that you can get the ideas down immediately, then deal with them later.”

Meanwhile, there is the continuing delight that is his own radio show (he smiles at the mention of it), Theme Time Radio Hour with your Host Bob Dylan, the brainchild of America's XM Satellite Radio and now broadcast weekly here on Radio 2. And later this year he will release a further volume within the ongoing Bob Dylan Bootleg Series, featuring previously unreleased or rare material alongside alternative versions of existing tracks recorded between 1989 and 2006.

Coming on top of the recent award to him of a special Pulitzer prize recognising “his profound impact on popular music and American culture, marked by lyrical compositions of extraordinary poetic power” (“I hope they don't ask for it back!”), all of this would suggest that he has arrived at a very creative but also contented period within his life.

“I've always felt that,” he says. “It's just sometimes I've got more going on than at other times.” But life is good? “To me, it's never been otherwise.”

My time with Dylan is up and we stand in preparation for my leaving the room. As a last aside, I ask for his take on the US political situation in the run-up to November's presidential election.

“Well, you know right now America is in a state of upheaval,” he says. “Poverty is demoralising. You can't expect people to have the virtue of purity when they are poor. But we've got this guy out there now who is redefining the nature of politics from the ground up...Barack Obama. He's redefining what a politician is, so we'll have to see how things play out. Am I hopeful? Yes, I'm hopeful that things might change. Some things are going to have to.” He offers a parting handshake. “You should always take the best from the past, leave the worst back there and go forward into the future,” he notes as the door closes between us.

For more, see www.halcyongallery.com and www.bobdylanart.com

What do video artists make of YouTube? Every minute, 10 hours of video are uploaded to the video-sharing site, which now shows hundreds of millions of videos each day. The place is a mess. Maybe artists should avoid it altogether.

The shrewdest contributor to the show is the video artist Sue de Beer. De Beer’s first choice of clip is inspired: the final scene from “The American Soldier,” Rainer Werner Fassbinder’s 1970 film. Two slight men appear, backing nervously away from the camera, each with a gun pointed at the viewer. What an ingenious start. A woman in the frame cries out. The two men startle and turn, just as the camera does an about-face to show another armed man, on his knees, who fires two shots. Down fall both original men, as the film turns to slo-mo. The film is black and white, and the shapes are just simple enough — lockers, as at a bus station; short staircase; pay phone — to be readable at YouTube’s dirtiest resolution.

5/30/2008 2:01 AM

http://themedium.blogs.nytimes.com/

Five Techniques of Surviving a Police Interrogation (Without Confessing)

Taken from freeBEAGLES’ recommendations for animal rights activists (and others) on how to make it through a police interrogation without incriminating themselves or their peers:

Remain silent.
Remain silent.
Imagine the words “I invoke my right to remain silent” painted on the wall, and stare at them throughout the interrogation.
Momentarily break your silence to ask for counsel.
Cultivate hatred for your interrogator so you don’t fall into his traps and start talking.

Wow.

Bad Move

In the United States, as many as 80 percent of suspects waive their rights to silence and counsel, allowing police to conduct a full-scale interrogation.

http://online.wsj.com/

How to Think About the World's Problems

By BJORN LOMBORG
May 22, 2008; Page A15

The pain caused by the global food crisis has led many people to belatedly realize that we have prioritized growing crops to feed cars instead of people. That is only a small part of the real problem.

This crisis demonstrates what happens when we focus doggedly on one specific – and inefficient – solution to one particular global challenge. A reduction in carbon emissions has become an end in itself. The fortune spent on this exercise could achieve an astounding amount of good in areas that we hear a lot less about.

Research for the Copenhagen Consensus, in which Nobel laureate economists analyze new research about the costs and benefits of different solutions to world problems, shows that just $60 million spent on providing Vitamin A capsules and therapeutic Zinc supplements for under-2-year-olds would reach 80% of the infants in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with annual economic benefits (from lower mortality and improved health) of more than $1 billion. That means doing $17 worth of good for each dollar spent. Spending $1 billion on tuberculosis would avert an astonishing one million deaths, with annual benefits adding up to $30 billion. This gives $30 back on the dollar.

Heart disease represents more than a quarter of the death toll in poor countries. Developed nations treat acute heart attacks with inexpensive drugs. Spending $200 million getting these cheap drugs to poor countries would avert 300,000 deaths in a year.

A dollar spent on heart disease in a developing nation will achieve $25 worth of good. Contrast that to Operation Enduring Freedom, which Copenhagen Consensus research found in the two years after 2001 returned 9 cents for each dollar spent. Or with the 90 cents Copenhagen Consensus research shows is returned for every $1 spent on carbon mitigation policies.

Focusing first on costs and benefits means that we can reconsider the merits of policies that have gone out of fashion.

The unpopular war in Iraq has undermined rich nations' belief in the success of military intervention as a way of reducing conflict. But Copenhagen Consensus research reveals that a peacekeeping force is even more effective than aid in reducing the likelihood that a conflict-prone nation will relapse into violence.

Four new civil wars are expected to break out in the next decade in low-income nations. Compared with no deployment, spending $850 million on a peacekeeping initiative reduces the 10-year risk of conflict re-emerging to 7% from around 38%, according to Copenhagen Consensus research by Oxford University's Paul Collier.

Because of war's horrendous and lasting costs, each percentage point of risk reduction is worth around $2.5 billion to the world. Thus, spending $850 million each year to reduce the risk of conflict by a massive 30 percentage points means a 10-year gain of $75 billion compared to the overall cost of $8.5 billion, or $9 back on the dollar.

In other areas, too, sound economic analysis suggests solutions that we may at first find unpalatable.

Poor water or sanitation affects more than two billion people and will claim millions of lives this year. One targeted solution would be to build large, multipurpose dams in Africa.

Building new dams may not be politically correct, but there are massive differences between the U.S. and Europe – where there are sound environmental arguments to halt the construction of large dams and even to decommission some – and countries like Ethiopia which have no water storage facilities, great variability in rainfall, and where dams could be built with relatively few environmental side effects. A single reservoir located in the scarcely inhabited Blue Nile gorge in Ethiopia would cost a breathtaking $3.3 billion. But it would produce large amounts of desperately needed power for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, combat the regional water shortage in times of drought, and expand irrigation. All these benefits would be at least two-and-a-half times as high as the costs.

In each of these areas – and in the areas of air pollution, education and trade barriers – the world's scarce resources could be used to achieve massive amounts of benefits.

Next week, some of the world's top economists, including five Nobel laureates, will consider new research outlining the costs and benefits of nearly 50 solutions to world problems – from building dams in Africa to providing micronutrient supplements to combating climate change. On May 30, the Copenhagen Consensus panel will produce a prioritized list showing the best and worst investments the world could make to tackle major challenges.

The research and the list will encourage greater transparency and a more informed debate.

Acknowledging that some investments shouldn't be our top priority isn't the same as saying that the challenges don't exist. It simply means working out how to do the most good with our limited resources. It will send a signal, too, to research communities about areas that need more study.

The global food crisis has sadly underlined the danger of continuing on our current path of fixating on poor solutions to high-profile problems instead of focusing on the best investments we could make to help the planet.

Mr. Lomborg, organizer of Copenhagen Consensus, is the author of "Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming" (Knopf, 2007).

http://www.smvgroup.com/

New Study Shows that Heavy Clickers Distort Reality of Display Advertising Click-Through Metrics

The study illustrates that heavy clickers represent just 6% of the online population yet account for 50% of all display ad clicks. While many online media companies use click-through rate as an ad negotiation currency, the study shows that heavy clickers are not representative of the general public. In fact, heavy clickers skew towards Internet users between the ages of 25-44 and households with an income under $40,000. Heavy clickers behave very differently online than the typical Internet user, and while they spend four times more time online than non-clickers, their spending does not proportionately reflect this very heavy Internet usage. Heavy clickers are also relatively more likely to visit auctions, gambling, and career services sites – a markedly different surfing pattern than non-clickers.

http://news.cnet.com/

The secret to Google's recruiting success

Posted by Matt Asay

Much has been written about Google's intensive hiring process (including its mind-vaporizing interview questions), and how it manages to land the cream of the engineering crop. But yesterday some friends of mine got to see it firsthand.

I was in downtown San Jose for a company event and was waiting for some colleagues over at the Marriott. They were a bit late and apologized, indicating that they would have been on time but had run into a swarm of beautiful young girls pouring out of the Fairmont Hotel. My CEO asked what they were doing and were told,

We work for Google.

Intrigued by the uniformity of their good looks and what role at Google would require such Darwinian selection of the most Vogue-like kind, he asked what, exactly, they did for Google:

We're recruiters! Do you know Python?

No, I'm not making this up.

When sheer brand power fails Google, a hot-looking 18-year old may well do the trick. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that even Google at times resorts to primal urges to sell its wares. Eliot Spitzer would be proud.

http://www.websiteoptimization.com/

Average Web Page Size Triples Since 2003

5/23/2008 5:22 AM

http://news.cnet.com/

Lastly, some are asking why Google is neglecting Blogger/Blogspot, its blogging service. Um, take a look at all Google products beyond its advertising business. Google is much like a traditional open-source project: Loves to get started but doesn't always put on the final polish. Google's engineering culture works on what is interesting to it, which is why so many of its products start strong and then fade...with the attention of its developers. At some point, Google is going to run into a determined competitor and will pay for its ADD.

In WPP-owned research company Millward Brown's annual study of the world's top-100 brands, Google came out on top for the second straight year, registering a 30 percent increase in the value of its brand to maintain the ranking. Google's market capitalization is $169 billion as a I write this, but the value of its brand?

$86 billion.

I think that means I can't even afford one pixel of its logo. That's one heck of a brand.

Which are the other top-10 brands? General Electric, Microsoft (but going down according to other research), Coca-Cola, China Mobile, IBM, Apple, McDonald's, Nokia, and Marlboro. It's fascinating to see how technology brands dominate. Maybe we really do rule the world?

I've had a few conversations with IT executives from Fortune 500 companies in the past several weeks, and I've been surprised by how often a new enterprise-software company kept getting mentioned. The company?

Google.

Google has the problem of putting finish on a lot of its products, leaving things in eternal beta, but the price point for Google Apps is forcing even the biggest of companies to seriously consider Google instead of a Microsoft Office 2007 upgrade. (Google Apps: It's not just small customers anymore.)

We may be getting to the point where Google's "cloud" allows them to provision users so much cheaper than any given enterprise can that it will become the provider of choice.

In the case of one large company, it suggested that it costs them $200/user/year to provision their users with the kind of functionality that Google can provide for $50/user/year. They just can't "compete" with that.

So they're considering Google Apps. Tie goes to the company with the most scale? And isn't it odd that Microsoft is no longer necessarily the vendor providing that scale?

5/18/2008 12:30 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Inside a Palestinian refugee camp

(Why there will never be peace in the Middle East)

Martin Asser spent a week in Shatila refugee camp in Beirut, meeting some of the prominent personalities among the population of Palestinian refugees.

ARTIST IN RESIDENCE

Hamza Bishtawi is a writer and journalist who doubles as the Shatila camp co-ordinator with the Lebanese local council responsible for the area. He is also the honourable secretary of the Palestinian Writers Union in Lebanon.


The camp is a place of creative energy, we have poets, story-tellers, painters, but they are not given enough exposure, for political reasons. Only the bad side is shown, the overcrowding, the people, the pollution. You don't hear about the exchange visits we arrange with people outside the camp, Lebanese and internationals.


We see ourselves as upholders of an almost holy cause, for justice for the Palestinians. In the diaspora, we can learn from our compatriots in the West Bank and Gaza, and we can carry on the cause ourselves. It is like a marathon run as a relay race. I was born in 1965 in Lebanon. I was outside Palestine but insist on life, and our sacrifice is for life and not for death.
 

My home is Acre, in Palestine. But I will never go to visit it as a tourist. I will go to claim my land. It is close, it won't be long. I'm sure that our return will be in less than the 60 years we have been absent. The countdown has started.

VETERAN TEACHER

Ahmed Halimeh is a science teacher in a UN-run school for Palestinian refugees. Out of school he does social work for a non-governmental organisation he co-founded.

I have taught generations of children in Shatila camp. We have hardly enough time and resources to give them the education they need. The schools work double shifts, with two schools of about 300 pupils sharing one building - they take it in turns to have lessons in early morning or the evening. If children drop out of school, I see it as my duty to go and visit the family and try to persuade them to return. Education is the best weapon the Palestinian refugees have, their only weapon.

I have lived through the worst times in this camp. When we were under siege in the War of the Camps, I went from house to house to make sure people had food and water. Conditions were absolutely inhuman. Now times are better and the Shia militiamen who used to shoot at us are now our neighbours. I still see the sniper who used to fire at me in the market. We say hello to each other - I will never point him out to my son, in case he wants to take revenge!

DEDICATED MEDIC

Hala Abdul Rahman is a doctor at the Palestinian Red Crescent clinic in Shatila camp. Palestinian refugees are not permitted to work in Lebanese hospitals or medical centres.

My family is from Kabri, northern Galilee. It was the scene of a big battle in which 100 British soldiers were killed in the 1930s. Afterwards everything was destroyed by Israel except the cemetery where my grandfather is buried. My brother and sister were both martyred in battles in the 1980s. The Israelis took my cousin to Ansar prison in 1982 and we never saw him again. But I consider myself and my family lucky. In some cases there were 'houses which were closed' (that is families where everyone died).

Palestinian doctors working for the UN make about $200 a month, which is not much for someone with medical training. Many qualified people leave to work in Europe or the Gulf, where they can make much higher salaries. But I am going to stay here, because the people in the camp need our help.

PARTY OFFICIAL

Suleiman Abul Hadi is the chair of Shatila's popular committee which is in charge of the day-to-day administration of the camp. He belongs to a pro-Syrian splinter group called Fatah Intifada which has strong support in the camp.

We don't have rights here. Lebanon wants to follow the US plan to either naturalise us or send us back to a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. The Palestinian Authority also wants to remove us from the equation. But we insist that we must go back to our soil, our homes, our towns. The worst option would be surrender to Israel and return to a miniature Palestinian state. That would just start a new round of conflict.

I don't want to throw the Jews into the sea, I want us to live together, if they want to. I have 11 children, but I am ready to have 20 children. We bring up our children so that even before they tell you their name they will say 'I am a Palestinian'. It is a treasure that our children accept their situation with such good grace.

We have a very good society, a cohesive society with solidarity and a collective spirit, pride and self-respect. That does not mean we accept, frankly, the shit that we live amongst, the intermittent electricity, the undrinkable water.

The crucial thing is to raise the level of services, especially education, with 40 children per class and overworked teachers, and medical services, some of which aren't covered by the UN at Haifa hospital (in Burj al-Barajneh camp).


People are dying unnecessarily; our hospital doesn't do echo cardiograms, for example; if someone has a medical emergency sometimes it takes too long for the ambulances to arrive from Burj to save them.
 

PALESTINE PILGRIM

Abu Nisa runs a thriving laundry and ironing business just outside Shatila camp, but he has spent most of his life living on the east side of the camp. His family lived in the town of Majdal Kurum in Galilee, famed for the quality of its grape vines. Refugees from the town operate a committee to keep traditional activities and the folklore of their town alive in the diaspora.

I have visited Palestine twice. I went on a kind of pilgrimage to our holy places, so I went to pray at the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem and the next time I went to the Ibrahimi mosque in Hebron and prayed there.

I am certain we shall return to Palestine, if not us then our children or our grandchildren will return.

It is true that many sons of Shatila camp take European passports if they are given the opportunity. But what do they do when they get Danish nationality or Swedish nationality? The first thing they do is use it to travel to Palestine.

CAMP SECURITY

Abu Wisam (not pictured) is the elected head of the Shatila popular security committee. His group is supported by all the political factions in the camp and is responsible for law and order and keeping the peace.

If we have a problem between two people in the camp which results in violence or a fight, I like to be the first person to visit them, unarmed, by myself, to see if I can solve it peacefully, within the camp.

If someone is injured I would rather the one who caused it paid compensation than for him to be handed to the Lebanese police. Sometime we punish criminals by locking them up in a cell we have, or by cutting their hair off. Only if it is a serious crime like rape or murder would we get the police involved.

The police do not have the capability to come into the camp without our co-operation.

In 2006, Fatah al-Islam (an armed group which battled government forces for months in Nahr al-Bared camp, causing hundreds of deaths and widespread destruction) came to Shatila and because we were alert to the danger we were able to expel them before they caused any trouble. We probably averted disaster for Shatila camp like this.

http://beatlesnumber9.com/

THE BEATLES ARE BIGGER THAN JESUS
~ John Lennon

4/17/2008 11:39 AM

http://www.koco.com/

Police: Okla. Sheriff Ran Sex-Slave Operation From Jail

Burgess Faces Up To 467 Years In Prison If Convicted

ARAPAHO, Okla. -- An Oklahoma sheriff resigned after an investigation reveals he was running a sex-slave operation from his jail, police said.

Michael Burgess surrendered to Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation agents and posted bond Wednesday night, hours after he resigned as Custer County sheriff amid 35 felony charges, including accusations of forcible oral sodomy, kidnapping, rape and perjury. Investigators said at one point Burgess oversaw wet T-shirt contests at the Custer County Jail.

The 35 charges against Burgess include bribery of a public official, indecent exposure, 14 counts of rape in the second degree and rape by instrumentation.

The Texas County district attorney started looking into Burgess in May 2007 when a participant in the Washita-Custer County drug court program told investigators that Burgess made her have sex with him on a threat of sending her to prison. Because of a conflict of interest, Custer County prosecutors handed the case to Texas County authorities.

According to an affidavit signed by District Attorney James Boring, Burgess compelled a Weatherford woman to travel to Oklahoma City and meet him at the Biltmore Hotel for sex in April 2006. The same woman had sex with Burgess under duress at a Clinton truck stop parking lot and at her home.

Once the investigation of Burgess got going, the former sheriff is accused of having another woman go to the alleged victim's home in Weatherford to remove incriminating evidence against him in exchange for securing her brother's release from prison.

Other accusations outlined in the affidavit include testimony from a former sheriff's deputy, who said Burgess groped her between Oct. 1 and Nov. 30, 2005. Burgess also allegedly forced a drug-court probation violator to perform oral sex on him in his county vehicle.

Perjury charges stem from an incident in which Burgess allegedly helped a Custer County woman falsify and secure a protective order against another man. The affidavit states that Burgess directed and coached the woman "as to facts she was to present and which she in fact testified to under oath" with regard to the protective order.

Burgess had been sheriff in Custer County since 1994, and these accusations have the entire region talking. Residents said that if the accusations turn out to be true, it sends a bad message.

"That you can't really trust anybody no matter if they're in power because people in power abuse their power," said Kim Whiteshirt.

If convicted on all counts, Burgess could face a sentence of up to 467 years in prison. Authorities told Eyewitness News 5 that Burgess is also involved in a lawsuit over accusations of inappropriate actions.

A source in Custer County also told Eyewitness News 5 that while it's likely the county's undersheriff would take over as sheriff, details of succession would probably be ironed out on Thursday.

Eyewitness News 5 has left a message with Burgess' attorney but has not yet received a return call.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/

Udi Manber has been working on Web search. Previously a computer science professor at the University of Arizona, then a senior vice president at Amazon and Yahoo's chief scientist, Manber is now vice president in charge of search quality for Google, where he makes sure results are engineered to the utmost (near) perfection.  In one of the only public interviews he's ever sat down for, Manber gives PM a glimpse into how Google's dominant engine helps you find what you want.

I’ve noticed, anecdotally, when watching people search, that they will rephrase their query over and over again until they get a proper answer. To what extent can that be fixed on the search engine side?
Many ways. First, we take that into account. The results we show you are based not only on what we know of the Web, but also what other people have searched for. Second, we are developing more tools to allow you to refine your queries—at the bottom of many pages, you’ll see query refinements. These are suggestions from us about what your next query should be. And we put it at the bottom because that’s where you run into problems—you tried to read the page, you didn’t find what you want, you may need other suggestions. Plus, we’re working on many other ways to help you with this process. [Search] is clearly a process.

How does search change when the content provider is in a more crowded space? Say, for instance, there are 50 Chinese restaurants all in the same area ...
It goes two ways: The content provider should think about how users will look for their content, and the user should think about what words people use to write about their content. Very often people make the mistake of using a search engine as if they are talking to another person. They use all sorts of words that a person will understand, but are not going to be in the content they are searching for. You should think about what you expect to see in the actual page and search for that. Having said that, we’re doing this, too. We will take your query and try to “understand” it and match is as best we can to the content we find on the Web.

There have been a lot of fads in search of late, such as Human Assisted Search and contextual search. Do those get folded into search as a whole? What are real trends in search and what are fluff?
So let me first tell you about Google. At Google we do not manually change results. For example, if we find for a particular query that result No. 4 should be result No. 1, we do not have the capability to manually change it. We made that decision not to put that capability in the algorithm—we have to go and actually change the algorithm. That is, we have to find what weakness in the algorithm caused that result and find a general solution to that, evaluate whether a general solution really works and if it’s better, and then launch a general solution. That makes the process slower, but it puts a lot more discipline on us and makes it more unbiased.

 Putting privacy aside, to what extent does finding a profile of somebody help search?
Currently, if you allow us to keep your Web history, we will improve your search. By the way, if you do this, you can always go back and remove what you want to remove or remove the whole thing or revoke that permission. But it improves search in two ways. One is, we will tune the result for you slightly. We’re not going to change the whole page—we might change position 5 to position 3 here and there, but we’ll use whatever we can from your previous searches to adapt the current search to you. The second is, we allow you to search within your Web history, which can also be very useful. You may remember something you did three months ago and you don’t remember exactly how you did it.

While we’re talking on the subject of personalization, a colleague of mine said that search as you know it is falling to the wayside and changing dramatically as social networking comes into play—trending toward this MySpace-Facebook model where people look to their friends or their community as the take-off point. Do you see that as a bona fide trend? And, if so, does search become less important?
Search has always been about people. It’s not an abstract thing. It’s not a formula. It’s about getting people what they need. The art of ranking is one of taking lots of signals and putting them together. Signals from your friends are better signals, stronger signals. On the other hand, many searches are long-tail kinds of searches. If you’re looking for what movies to see tonight, your friend can probably give you the best information. If you’re looking for the address of the business, the Web as a whole can give you better information. If you’re looking for something obscure about anything, again the web can give you much better information. It depends on the type of search you do—and how to take all those signals and put them together.

What do you think are the next coming challenges beyond what we’ve talked about?
I think one of them is a better understanding of queries and content, which is what we do all the time. If I were to point to one interesting feature that we launched recently—and unfortunately I can’t talk about coming features [since] we don’t pre-announce things—one feature we launched recently is something called CLIR. It stands for Cross Language Information Retrieval. Basically, what we do is take your query, translate it into another language, do the search in another language, translate the results back to your language so that gives you access to content in, I think, 12 different languages. So if you’re a user in Egypt, for example, and you only speak Arabic, you can write the query in Arabic, ask to translate it into English. When you then click on the results, it will translate the Web pages to Arabic for you—all of it done by Google translation. That opens the whole world to everybody. I see this as incredibly high potential.

You have nothing to do with the advertising side, but is there a sort of “church and state” separation between the advertising side and what you do?
Yes, I told you we launched our 450 improvements. When we decide to launch something, we have a weekly meeting where all those things come together and we look at all the evaluations and we make decisions—revenues and any effects on ads do not come into those meetings. We don’t even know what the effects are. We make the decisions solely based on how good it is for search, how good it is for users. The ads are on a different part of the page, and the ad people, I assume, do the same kind of thing and try to improve the ads.

4/16/2008 2:55 PM

http://www.popularmechanics.com/

Search is dead. Or at least that’s the opinion of one tuned-in venture capitalist I’ve been getting to know this year. We were recently discussing the drawn-out Microsoft-Yahoo-Google showdown and its larger implications when my fellow futurist issued his bold statement as a sort of summary dismissal of the whole multi-billion-dollar battle. In his opinion, Silicon Valley’s Big Three are fighting over the scraps of the last decade of innovation while there’s a sea change taking place in the way people use the Internet—one that may leave the Web’s biggest players holding all the cards to a game nobody wants to buy in to anymore.

Such a prediction probably seems ridiculous when Google has a market capitalization five times that of Ford and General Motors combined. After all, Google has developed a superfast, highly efficient method of making sense of the most overwhelming mass of data mankind has ever created. What’s more, the company has set an extraordinarily ambitious goal for itself to increase the overall load of data by digitizing every book ever made. All this, while reinventing the business of advertising as we know it.

What he means is that, with the rise of social networking sites such as Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, Second Life, LinkedIn and even Google’s own Orkut, the next generation of Web users may find what they want by using their social network rather than a search algorithm. After all, the people in your online social network should know you better than a mathematical equation, right?

http://www.pcworld.com/

Super-Useful Web Services

Get names and addresses from the Web, research practically anything, and learn about a new input device.

Steve Bass

If you dig around the Web long enough, you're bound to find things somebody might not want you to know. (Maybe, like me, you hang your laundry out in the backyard.) This week I have a bunch of sites to help you dig up the dirt and do some serious research.

Find the Dirt on Your Neighbor

With two free Web services, I found the address of a neighbor, his first and last name, his phone number, and how much his home is worth. If Zillow would only update its images, I could even tell you if he hangs his laundry out in the backyard.

I met a neighbor while walking the dogs, and we chatted a while. When I got home, I decided to pop something in the mail. (It was some census tract stuff if you must know.) He lives about two blocks down the road, but for the life of me, I couldn't remember the guy's name or his street address. Okay, sure, I could've just dropped by his house. But what would I have to write about today, eh?

I popped open Zillow and searched on my neighborhood until I found the image of his house, then clicked on it. Zillow told me lots of stuff about the value of his home. What I needed--and got--was his street address.

Now that I had his street address, I went to the Reverse Lookup tab at 411Locate, entered info in the Reverse Address Lookup section, and got lucky. In a second, I had Jess's name. You might not be so fortunate--411Locate doesn't always come up with the right name.

Dig This: Tempted to buy a set of those newfangled color-pencil input devices? Be sure to read the review first--it details advanced features, usability, and, no surprise, bugs.

Trulia's Hindsight: Watch Cities Grow

If you enjoyed Zillow, you might also like Trulia. But there's more to this real-estate site than you might expect. I was poking around the other day and discovered Trulia Hindsight, which shows annual population growth in most parts of the U.S.

Once you're on Trulia Hindsight, click on Plano, Texas. You'll see a city map paint on the screen and a timeline at the bottom of the page will begin to advance. The map begins to populate, showing how the area developed over time.

Use the contrast slider on the bottom right to adjust how much of the background you want to see and the slider on the bottom left to zoom in or out of the map.

Once you get your bearings, grab the timeline slider, move it to the left, then slowly move it to the right. Type a city and state into the search field at the top to find your home town. Unfortunately, the site doesn't have data for every area. If your town isn't on Trulia's radar, try downtown Los Angeles.

Dig This: You've gotta watch The Front Fell Off. My editor started kvetching that while hilarious, it also looks quite plausible. And she complained that the actors aren't getting credit even though there are lots of clips floating around the Internet. Okay, so here goes: The guys are Australian comedy team Bruce and Dawe.

Top 5 Little-Known Research Web Sites

  1. AskNow lets you ask a librarian a question. If they ask you where you live, say California.
  2. OWL, the Online Writing Lab, lets you look up the whys and wherefores of grammar.
  3. The Phrase Finder is a handy thesaurus for phrases.
  4. Need a fact checker? Refdesk.com has all the facts--or links to them--you'll ever need.
  5. Visiting the LibrarySpot is like walking in to the local library and walking into the reference room. The site's part of the StartSpot Network, which includes HomeworkSpot and MuseumSpot.

Dig This: Whenever I go to CES in Las Vegas, my first stop's the craps table for some fast action--and maybe a chance to make a couple of bucks. Yet after watching these videos of Texas Hold'em--the game that "takes five minutes to learn and a lifetime to master"--I may have to find a low-stakes game.

Dig This, Too: Need a change of pace? Try Reel Fishing. You'll need patience and a steady hand.

4/16/2008 1:24 AM

http://www.pcworld.com/

Why You Should Jott Yourself

Free voice-to-text service is an excellent productivity tool for busy mobile professionals.

The Big Idea

Jott's concept is beautifully simple and extremely useful.

After registering online for the service, you can easily create reminders or dictate memos for yourself--or others--using the cell phone that's attached to your hip.

Let's say you've had a "Eureka!" moment while in the car. Dial Jott's toll-free number (866/568-8123) or, even better, push the speed-dial button you've assigned to it.

Almost immediately, a female voice responds: "Who do you want to Jott?" If the message is for yourself, just say, "Myself." After the beep, start talking. Messages can be up to 30 seconds long. When you're finished, simply stop talking. A few seconds later, the voice will say, "Got it." Then hang up or continue with additional memos.

Within a few minutes, the message you dictated is transcribed and delivered via e-mail, text message, or both.

4/14/2008 7:35 AM

http://www.usnews.com/

The First Draft of History Looks a Bit Rough on Bush

President Bush often argues that history will vindicate him. So he can't be pleased with an informal survey of 109 professional historians conducted by the History News Network. It found that 98 percent of them believe that Bush's presidency has been a failure, while only about 2 percent see it as a success. Not only that, more than 61 percent of the historians say the current presidency is the worst in American history. In 2004, only 11.6 percent of the historians rated Bush's presidency in last place. Among the reasons given for his low ratings: invading Iraq, "tax breaks for the rich," and alienating many nations around the world. Bush supporters counter that professional historians today tend to be liberal and that it's too early to assess how his policies will turn out.

4/11/2008 6:38 PM

http://learnthis.ca/tag/passion/

Passion Keeps You Highly Focused

People always spend their time on things they love when given a choice, so knowing and living your passions increases your productivity by keeping you highly focused. Its easy to concentrate on something you love to do since distractions are less important. It still takes additional effort to learn to avoid distractions, I just know that being in an activity that I’m highly passionate about is a lot easier to avoid distractions than if its an activity I don’t enjoy as much. Takes chores or housework as an example. I am definitely NOT passionately about keeping a prestinely clean house so when I’m tidying up or doing dishes nearly ANYTHING can distract me from that. On the other hand, if I’m reading a good book, something I’m much MORE passionate about, hours can go by where I completely ignore other normal distractions (even phone calls and people at the door).

Creativity and Innovation REQUIRE Passion

Productivity to me and in my job definitely links directly to creativity and innovation. I have experienced that those who are more passionate about their work and truly love it, always are more creative and innovation. This leads them to produce new ideas, be willing to change and take new risks to improve things and it also helps steer and lead others where they may otherwise fall into a path of complacency. All of this happens more naturally when there is a passion driving individuals to do this steps. It is VERY rare to find innovators and lots of creative ideas where there are no passionate people working in that area. It can be found but it generally doesn’t last or at the very least, it doesn’t produce the same level of innovation that a passion based group would deliver. This demonstrates that continuous and high levels of innovation REQUIRE passion, and since those are important factors to me that bring about enhanced productivity, I believe that passion really is required to achieve this.

4/10/2008 9:53 PM

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/

World's most expensive coffee at Ł50 a cup comes to British stores...and it's made from cats' droppings

The secret behind the special blend about to go on sale at an upmarket department store is that it is made from cats' droppings.

While such an ingredient might leave many spluttering into their cups, Peter Jones thinks it is on to a winner.

For the rest of April, it is serving espressos, Americanos and lattes made from the droppings in its in-store coffee shop in Sloane Square, central London.

And for those who want the ultimate talking point over the after-dinner mints, the coffee beans are also on sale at Ł50 for 100 grams.

The bean is rare, with less than 450lb harvested each year.

The beans are extracted from the droppings of the palm civet, a cross between a cat and a monkey which lives in Indonesia.

The civets eat the soft coffee cherries, digest the fruit pulp and excrete the beans on the forest floor, because they cannot digest the beans.

Plantation workers then collect the beans, which are sold as Luwak coffee.

The civets are said to pick the best and ripest coffee berries.

It is also thought that their gastric juices may add to the flavour.

4/9/2008 11:01 AM

http://www.salon.com/

You have succinctly expressed one of the most unsettling aspects of Hillary Clinton's character and modus operandi. There is a strangely static and claustrophobic quality to the fiercely loyal cult she has gathered around her since her first lady years. Postmortem analysts of this presidential campaign will have a field day ferreting out all the cringe-making blunders made by her clique of tired, aging courtiers who couldn't adjust to changing political realities. Hillary's forces have acted like the heavy, pompous galleons of the imperial Spanish Armada, outmaneuvered by the quick, bold, entrepreneurial ships of the English fleet.

I agree that the male staff who Hillary attracts are slick, geeky weasels or rancid, asexual cream puffs. (One of the latter, the insufferable Mark Penn, just got the heave-ho after he played Hillary for a patsy with the Colombian government.) If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say Hillary is reconstituting the toxic hierarchy of her childhood household, with her on top instead of her drill-sergeant father. All those seething beta males (as you so aptly describe them) are versions of her sad-sack brothers, who got the short end of the Rodham DNA stick.

Obama has actually served longer in public office than Hillary has. It's very true that he lacks executive experience, but so does she. Her bungling of healthcare reform, along with her inability to control the financial expenditures and internal wrangling of her campaign, does not bode well for a prospective chief executive. Beyond that, I'm not sure that your analogy to professionals like doctors, accountants and teachers entirely applies to presidents. There is no fixed system of credentialing for our highest office. On the contrary, the Founders envisioned the president as a person of unpretentious common sense and good character. Hillary may spout a populist line, but with her arrogant sense of dynastic entitlement, she's a royalist who, like Napoleon, wants to crown herself.

I too wish that Obama had more practical experience in government. But Washington is at a stalemate and needs fresh eyes and a new start. Furthermore, at this point in American history, with an ill-conceived, wasteful war dragging on in Iraq and with the nation's world reputation in tatters, I believe that, because of his international heritage and upbringing, Obama is the right person at the right time. We need a thoughtful leader who can combine realism with conciliation in domestic as well as foreign affairs.

Full disclosure: I have contributed small sums to Obama's campaign twice this year. I was lucky enough to see him up close as he spoke at a recent rally in the Philadelphia suburbs, where he answered policy questions in great detail. I was very impressed by his easy, relaxed authority and quick humor as well as his classy elegance. I'd love to have a woman president -- but slippery Hillary, stolidly pumping and pumping her narcissistic bellows like a steam engine, just isn't it.

What an interesting point you make about "biological programming" and human survival. Nevertheless, John McCain did endure terrible suffering and permanent disability in the service of his country. Though we should show due respect for that sacrifice, I certainly do not believe that McCain's traumatic experiences as a prisoner have any bearing whatsoever on his suitability to be president.

On the contrary, from what little I know of him via television, McCain strikes me as a glib, irascible hot dog temperamentally unfitted for the Oval Office. The camera is McCain's enemy: The closer it comes, the more ghoulish he looks. There's way too much subtext boiling there. And McCain's weirdly retro Stepford wife is no asset. I'll take the stylish, feisty, bare-knuckles Michelle Obama for first lady any day.

Thank you very much for your question. Yes, alas, I do simply want to pack up and leave Iraq tomorrow -- though logistically the withdrawal of troops and equipment would take a year or more. In my case, there is no "hindsight": I repeatedly and publicly denounced the Iraq incursion before it occurred, and I believe that events have proved me right.

We have not defeated the "Islamo-fascists" in Iraq; we have simply created more of them around the world by radicalizing an entire generation of young Muslims. There is no finite number of terrorists whom we can neutralize through conventional warfare or a humiliating occupation. Neither do I believe that a genuinely stable democracy is in the near future for Iraq. The murderous ethnic and religious rivalries will seethe on and on, as they have in that region for 5,000 years. Let's get our troops out of the way and back home where they belong.

Our military should not be misused for neighborhood policing -- particularly in a treacherous arena where so few of our soldiers speak the native language. If we pull out our ground forces, we can and should reserve the option of aerial bombardment. Satellite surveillance can read the label on a tin can, for heaven's sake. The Iraq debacle is not worth another American life. And the billions of dollars going down that rathole should be invested instead in American infrastructure, education and healthcare.

I do not minimize the larger danger to Western culture and liberty: I believe that our conflicts with radical jihadists will drag on intermittently for a century or more. But like mercury, which splatters into tiny particles when you hit it, today's terrorism is too elusive for the cumbersome and outdated military tactics employed by the shortsighted Bush administration in Iraq.

http://sexornot.blogspot.com/

Students with IQs above 100 and below 70 were significantly less likely to have had intercourse than those in between.
• Each additional point of IQ increased the odds of virginity by 2.7% for males and 1.7% for females.
• It’s not just home runs they’re talking about, either: a higher IQ decreased the likelihood of romantic contact in any sense, from holding hands to kissing, across the board.
• For males with IQs between 70-90 only 50.2% were virgin, whereas those with IQs above 110 were 70.3% virgins.

http://jmyrpt.sexusblog.com/

10 Reasons for having sex

1. Scientific tests find that when women make love, they produce double amounts of the hormone estrogen, which make hair shiny and skin smooth.

2. Gentle, relaxed lovemaking reduces your chances of suffering dermatitis, skin rashes and blemishes. The sweat produced cleanses the pores and makes your skin glow.

3. Lovemaking can burn up those calories you piled on during that romantic dinner.

4. Sex is one of the safest sports you can take up. It stretches and tones up just about every muscles in the body. It’s more enjoyable than swimming 20 laps and you don’t need special sneakers!

5. Sex is an instant cure for mild depression. It releases the body endorphin into the bloodstream, producing a sense of euphoria and leaving you with a feeling of well-being.

6. The more sex you have, the more you will be offered. The sexually active body gives off greater quantities of chemicals called pheromones. These subtle sex perfumes drive the opposite sex crazy!

7. Sex is the safest tranquillizer in the world. It is 10 times more effective than Valium.

8. Kissing each day will keep the dentist away. Kissing encourages saliva to wash food from the teeth and lowers the level of the acid that causes decay, preventing plaque build-up.

9. Sex actually relieves headaches. A lovemaking session can release the tension that restricts blood vessels in the brain.

10. A lot of lovemaking can unblock a stuffy nose. Sex is a natural antihistamine. It can help combat asthma and hay fever.

http://jmrpt.sensualwriter.com/

Kegal exercises on wet Monday afternoon

I was stood in the bathroom peering myopically into the middle distance. Blind without my spectacles I was fumbling around trying to find them. The cat had come into the bathroom while I was showering and had knocked all the items off the washstand. There is no point in calling for help as MP can’t hear, so I was stuck. Maybe I should get a fluorescent spectacle case to put them in, instead of balancing them precariously on the side of the wash basin.

“What are you doing?” MP asked. Brilliant, help at last.
“I lost my specs.”
MP handed me the missing items, the world snapped back into focus.
“I need a pee.”
She sat and peed while I towelled myself. The cat watched us both, looking back and forward.
“Your cat is a monster!”
“True.”
I went to leave but MP held me firmly. She steered me into the bedroom and then cuffed my hands behind my back.

“Unfinished business from yesterday.” Was her mysterious explanation.
She picked up the wash bag where we keep some of our sex toys, vibrators and the like, and then she led me into the lounge. She sat in the reclining chair, and beckoned me over. I lay over her lap.
“Did you enjoy sex last night?” She asked.
“Yes, lovely.”
“It was a special treat for you, I don’t let you do bottom sex very often do I?”
“No it was lovely, thank you.”
“Is it nice because my bum hole is tight around your big cock?”
“I think that helps, but mostly because it’s naughty.”
“Do you know what it’s like, to be buggered?”
“Not really…”
Her fingers were probing my bottom, I heard the washbag unsnap. A pause. Wet slippery fingers pushed into me.
“It’s probably a bit like this…”
She reached for our big penis shaped dildo, the head touched my anus, then she pushed and penetrated me.
“Oh, ooh, yow!”
“Did that hurt?” She worked the phallus in and out of my bottom.
“It hurt at first but it’s OK now.”
“How about this?” She worked it harder, deeper.
“That hurts a bit.”
“You push this hard when you get excited…”
“Oh, ooh. Mmmm.”
“And like this when you come!” She pushed the phallus deep and hard into my rectum.
“Youch!”
She pulled the phallus out of my bottom.
“It’s made you all stiff, so it did not hurt that much?”
“No, it was nice, different sort of nice.”
“Yes, that’s what I think.”
“Kneel on the floor please.”
I rolled off her lap and knelt down.
“I will be right back, Willy needs a wash before we continue.” She headed for the bathroom. She was back a few moments later with the clean phallus.
“I need to do my Kegal exercises, you can watch.”
She sliped the phallus into her minge, then she lay back and closed her eyes. I could hear her counting under her breath. After a while she opened her eyes. She looked down at me.
“Still stiff?”
“Very!”
“I am up to fifty, but I think I need a real penis to squeeze against, come here.”
I struggled to my feet, it was not easy with my hands cuffed behind my back, no way to push up. I went over to her. She pulled the lever on the chair and it rolled back into it’s reclining position. She draped her legs over each arm. She lay open and exposed.
She held my penis in her hand and guided me into her. Warm and wet. Tight. She wrapped her legs around my hips holding me tight, preventing me from moving.
“You count when I squeeze.”
SQUEEZE.
“One!”
“Fifty one, silly boy, start again.”
SQUEEZE
“Fifty one.”
SQUEEZE
“Fifty two.”
SQUEEZE
“Fifty three.”
We got up to sixty five.”
“If I give you some slack you could thrust as I squeeze.” She released her grip around my hips.
Thrust
SQUEEZE
“Sixty six.”
“Do you think we will get to one hundred without you coming?”
“NO!”
“Neither do I, never mind.”
Thrust.
SQUEEZE
“Sixty seven.”
Somewhere in the high seventies I lost control and thrust hard into her, as my orgasm took control. She wrapped her legs around me and held me tight against her, she carried on squeezing her minge on my cock. With each squeeze a jolt of bitter sweet pain made me cry out as my cock had become super sensitive.

Ignoring my cries she continued to squeeze, counting all the way up to one hundred. Then she ground her clit against me and thrust up to me, taking her own pleasure. Her minge went into spasm and I felt the muscles fluttering in rapid spasm as she reached her orgasm. She gasped and moaned as the pleasure rushed over her, her face and neck flushed red.

Her legs went limp, as did my cock, and I slid away from her collapsing on the floor. After a few moments she reached down and released my hands.
“Was that nice?”
“Yes, wonderful.”
“And next time we have ‘bottom’ sex you’re going to be gentle?”
“Yes, I will be gentle.”
“Would you like to do more Kegal exercises another time, I think having you inside really helps.”
“Yes please, I liked helping.”

She got up. “I think you need another shower, I definitely need one, come on.”
She headed for the bathroom.
“Bring Willy, he’s waterproof, I might find a use for him in the shower.”
I picked up the phallus and followed her into the bathroom.
What could she possibly mean…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Muslim jokes 'scare' BBC – Elton

Comedian and writer Ben Elton has said the BBC is too "scared" to broadcast jokes about Muslims for fear of provoking radical Islamists.

"I wanted to use the phrase 'Muhammad came to the mountain' and everybody said, 'Oh, don't! Just don't! Don't go there!'

"It was nothing to do with Islam, I was merely referring to the old proverb, 'If the mountain won't come to Muhammad, Muhammad must go to the mountain.' And people said, 'Let's just not!'"

4/2/2008 10:38 AM

SOCIAL NETWORKING SURVEY
49% of children 8-17 have an online profile
22% of 16+ have an online profile
On average adults have profiles on 1.6 sites
63% of 8 to 17-year-olds with a profile use Bebo
37% of 8 to 17-year-olds with profile use MySpace
18% of 8 to 17-year-olds with a profile use Facebook
59% of 8 to 17-year-olds use social networks to make new friends
16% of parents do not know if their child's profile is visible to all
33% of parents say they set no rules for their children's use of social networks
43% of children say their parents set no rules for use of social networks
Source: Ofcom
 

3/29/2008 11:01 AM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

'George Bush is like crusty potato'

James Wannerton, president of the UK Synaesthesia Association, explains how the condition which "mixes the senses" affects his life.

He is speaking at a conference in Edinburgh where scientists and others with the condition are discussing the phenomenon.

For as long as I can remember, words, word sounds, musical instruments and certain ambient noises have produced involuntary bursts of taste on my tongue.

Texture and temperature also feature in this experience which is with me 24 hours a day. My dreams also contain tastes, and I am unable to turn it off.

Although predominant during my formative years, I never considered these invasive sensations to be abnormal. Tasting words seemed as natural as breathing.

As I got older and more involved in the wider world, I found my word/taste associations having an increasing effect in my everyday life, subtly dictating the nature and course of my friendships, personal relationships, my education, my career, where I live, what I wear, what I read, the make and colour of car that I drive. The list is endless.

As a teenager, my developing interest in girls was heavily influenced by the tastes of their names, something which has led me up some disastrous paths over the years.

A girl's name was just as important as her looks and in some extreme cases, even her personality.

How shallow is that? I've constantly asked myself why girls with the sweetest tasting names quite often come with the sourest of temperaments.

http://space.newscientist.com/

Space elevators face wobble problem

If an elevator stretching from Earth into space could ever be built, it could slash the cost of space travel. But a controversial new study suggests that building and maintaining one would be an even bigger challenge than previously thought, because it would need to include built-in thrusters to stabilise itself against dangerous vibrations.

The idea behind a space elevator is simple. Deploy a cable stretching from the ground near Earth's equator far enough into space, and centrifugal forces due to Earth's spin will keep the cable taut.

Vehicles could then climb up the cable, also called a tether or ribbon, to get into space, powered by lasers on the ground or other Earth-based power sources. The idea could dispense with expensive rocket launches, making access to space much cheaper.

But the concept has been stuck on the ground floor for decades, not least because constructing a tether strong enough for the job is beyond current technology. Nanotubes might be up to the task, but they would have to be made longer and with fewer defects than any that can be fabricated today.

A new study makes the prospects appear even gloomier. Even if a space elevator could be built, it will need thrusters attached to it to prevent potentially dangerous amounts of wobbling, says Lubos Perek of the Czech Academy of Sciences' Astronomical Institute in Prague. The addition would increase the difficulty and cost of building and maintaining the elevator.

Previous studies have noted that gravitational tugs from the Moon and Sun, as well as pressure from gusts of solar wind, would shake the tether. That could potentially make it veer into space traffic, including satellites and bits of space debris. A collision could cut the tether and wreck the space elevator.

3/28/2008 4:26 PM

http://science.slashdot.org/

Space Elevators Face Wobble Problem

NewScientist is reporting that while the strength of the tether has long been considered the main problem in building a space elevator, a new study suggests that a dangerous wobbling problem may also be a serious obstacle. "Previous studies have noted that gravitational tugs from the Moon and Sun, as well as pressure from gusts of solar wind, would shake the tether. That could potentially make it veer into space traffic, including satellites and bits of space debris. A collision could cut the tether and wreck the space elevator."

http://www.reuters.com/

Money buys happiness -- if you spend on someone else

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Money can buy happiness, but only if you spend it on someone else, researchers reported on Thursday.

Spending as little as $5 a day on someone else could significantly boost happiness, the team at the University of British Columbia and Harvard Business School found.

Their experiments on more than 630 Americans showed they were measurably happier when they spent money on others -- even if they thought spending the money on themselves would make them happier.

"We wanted to test our theory that how people spend their money is at least as important as how much money they earn," said Elizabeth Dunn, a psychologist at the University of British Columbia.

They asked their 600 volunteers first to rate their general happiness, report their annual income and detail their monthly spending including bills, gifts for themselves, gifts for others and donations to charity.

"Regardless of how much income each person made, those who spent money on others reported greater happiness, while those who spent more on themselves did not," Dunn said in a statement.

Dunn's team also surveyed 16 employees at a company in Boston before and after they received an annual profit-sharing bonus of between $3,000 and $8,000.

"Employees who devoted more of their bonus to pro-social spending experienced greater happiness after receiving the bonus, and the manner in which they spent that bonus was a more important predictor of their happiness than the size of the bonus itself," they wrote in their report, published in the journal Science.

"Finally, participants who were randomly assigned to spend money on others experienced greater happiness than those assigned to spend money on themselves," they said.

They gave their volunteers $5 or $20 and half got clear instructions on how to spend it. Those who spent the money on someone or something else reported feeling happier about it.

"These findings suggest that very minor alterations in spending allocations -- as little as $5 -- may be enough to produce real gains in happiness on a given day," Dunn said.

This could also explain why people are no happier even though U.S. society is richer.

"Indeed, although real incomes have surged dramatically in recent decades, happiness levels have remained largely flat within developed countries across time," they wrote.

(Reporting by Maggie Fox, editing by Will Dunham and Todd Eastham)

http://www.nypost.com/

 (BIG LOVE?)

THE MCGREEVEYS' SECRET

FORMER DRIVER: I HAD THREESOME WITH JIM & DINA

By JEANE MacINTOSH

 

March 16, 2008 -- A former driver and aide for former N.J. Gov. Jim McGreevey says Dina Matos McGreevey must have always known her husband was gay - because he was the other man in bed with them.

In an explosive interview with The Post, the McGreeveys' longtime man-in-the-middle, Teddy Pedersen, recounted explicit details of alleged, titillating, three-way sex romps he had with the now-divorcing duo, starting during their courtship and continuing into the marriage.

Pedersen - who said he has already spilled the beans on the steamy ménage a trios arrangement under oath in a deposition for the couple's divorce battle - hinted that he thinks his presence was required to get Jim's motor running for Dina.

Matos McGreevey's basic claim in her divorce war with the former Garden State gov is her argument that he covered up his homosexuality and tricked her into a loveless marriage.

THE HOUSING PRICE CRASH

The wave of repossessions is having a dramatic effect on house prices, reversing the housing boom of the last few years and causing the first national decline in house prices since the 1930s.

There is a glut of four million unsold homes that is depressing prices, as builders have also been forced to lower prices to get rid of unsold properties.

And house prices, which are currently declining at an annual rate of 4.5%, are expected to fall by at least 10% by next year - and more in areas like California and Florida which had the biggest boom.

3/17/2008 2:54 AM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

The creator of the web has said consumers need to be protected against systems which can track their activity on the internet.

Sir Tim Berners-Lee told BBC News he would change his internet provider if it introduced such a system.

Plans by leading internet providers to use Phorm, a company which tracks web activity to create personalised adverts, have sparked controversy.

Sir Tim said he did not want his ISP to track which websites he visited.

"I want to know if I look up a whole lot of books about some form of cancer that that's not going to get to my insurance company and I'm going to find my insurance premium is going to go up by 5% because they've figured I'm looking at those books," he said.

Sir Tim said his data and web history belonged to him.

He said: "It's mine - you can't have it. If you want to use it for something, then you have to negotiate with me. I have to agree, I have to understand what I'm getting in return."


3/14/2008 12:30 PM

 

http://blogoscoped.com/

 

Rejected Google Holiday Logos, Parts 1 to 10

 

2/29/2008 11:03 AM

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

 

Matt Drudge: world's most powerful journalist

Ten years ago, he was a reclusive, pasty-faced 31-year-old who, bashing away on his laptop in his grungy Hollywood apartment, shot to prominence when he threatened to bring down Bill Clinton's presidency by breaking news of the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

 

Now, Matt Drudge owns a luxurious Mediterranean-style stucco house on Rivo Alto Island in Florida's Biscayne Bay, a condominium at the Four Seasons in Miami and is said to drive a black Mustang. He remains an elusive, mysterious figure but the internet pioneer is arguably the single most powerful journalist – though his detractors even deny that is his occupation - in the world.

 

Drudge is still an outsider, contemptuous of the cosy relationships and closed-door deals that keep the ordinary person from being privy to the secrets of the Establishment. He is the reason why people across the globe are now reading about Prince Harry serving in Afghanistan after he shattered a blackout agreed between Fleet Street and Buckingham Palace.


This week, he posted a photograph of Barack Obama dressed in the tribal garb of a Somali elder during a 2006 trip to Africa, claiming it had been emailed by a member of Hillary Clinton's campaign. It appeared to be a brazen attempt to fuel rumours that her rival was a dangerous Muslim.
 

Within minutes, the photograph was the talk of Washington news rooms and New York television studios. BlackBerry messages flew back and forth between reporters and political operatives. The story spread across the worldwide web as bloggers weighed in on a juicy item that was suddenly topping the news agenda.

Welcome to the world of the Drudge Report. A world in which the successor to Walter Cronkite and Bob Woodward is a loner with no university education or journalistic background. He is now surreptitiously courted by the media and political elites that once derided him but now fear he has the power to change the course of an American election.

The Lewinsky scandal and the 2008 presidential campaign are the bookends to what could be described as the Drudge decade. At the start, he was the antagonist who came from nowhere – Bill Clinton initially fumbled the site's name, calling it the Sludge Report. By the end, he had become Hillary Clinton's weapon of choice against Mr Obama.

Just as he revealed details of Bill Clinton's tawdry affair with Miss Lewinsky while "Newsweek" editors agonised over whether to publish the story, Drudge posted the news of Prince Harry's front-line service against the Taliban on-line without regard to any niceties. Within an hour, Buckingham Palace had lifted the embargo and Prince Harry was the lead item on CNN.

It all seems a long way from Matthew Nathan Drudge's days as a gifted but directionless schoolboy growing up in the Washington DC suburb of Takoma Park, Maryland.

The son of divorced parents who lived with his mother, he would, he said later, wander past ABC News headquarters and "daydream" of being on the inside, "stare up at the Washington Post newsroom over on 15th Street, look up longingly, knowing I'd never get in".

After stints at a 7-Eleven store and at McDonald's, odd jobs as a telemarketer and New York grocery store assistant, he gravitated to Los Angeles in 1989, attracted by the intersection between media and celebrity that was to become the rich seam he mined to achieve his success.

He worked as a runner on the game show "The Price is Right" before landing a job at the gift shop at CBS Studios – a window into Hollywood – and rising to become its manager.

By 1994, his father Bob, a former therapist and social worker, was worried that the self-described "aimless teen" was becoming a directionless adult. He gave him a Packard-Bell computer in the hope that it might spur him on to achieve more.

The following year, Drudge the elder founded refdesk.com, a site that describes itself as indexing "quality, credible and timely resources that are free and family-friendly" and which Colin Powell, the former US Secretary of State, uses as his home page.

Drudge the younger chose a different path. He threw his energies into producing an email newsletter filled with snippets of gossip and rambling steam-of-consciousness opinion. By 1996, he was focusing more on politics, charging an annual $10 fee to his subscribers – which grew from 1,000 to 85,000 between 1995 and 1997.

Today, the Drudge Report attracts more than 600 million visits a month. With an old-fashioned typeface, Drudge primarily links to stories, though he still breaks news using his trademark flashing siren over a banner headline.

 

So much internet traffic can be directed to an item linked to by Drudge that unprepared websites have been known to collapse under the strain.

 

For politicians, the effect is akin to a needle injecting information into the media bloodstream. A positive story can give a shot of adrenaline to a flagging campaign. More commonly, negative information can be like a dose of poison being administered.

It has been Republicans who have most assiduously courted Drudge, a conservative populist who passionately opposes abortion and despises taxes. Research directors of the Republican National Committee have made pilgrimages to Miami to pay homage to Drudge.

A 2005 dinner at the fashionable Miami steakhouse Forge in which Tim Griffin, the outgoing RNC research director, introduced his successor Matt Rhoades to Drudge is already the stuff of political lore. Rhoades went on to become communications supremo to Mitt Romney, whose opponents in the 2008 presidential race noted frequently that negative stories about them appeared regularly on Drudge.

American reporters from the mainstream outlets that often dismiss Drudge as a salacious rumour-monger often tip him off about their exclusives or even the stories their editors will not run.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2008 campaign has been the connection between the Drudge Report and the Clinton campaign, who has reportedly used the former Democratic party official Tracy Sefl as an emissary.


But the attempt to woo the man who came close to being her husband's nemesis appears to have backfired. "The Clinton campaign has clearly had an ability to move negative stuff about Edwards and Obama in a way that we did not have," said Joe Trippi, chief strategists to John Edwards, who recently dropped out of the 2008 race.


"They tried to take some of the tactics that had worked against them and use them for their own gain just when people were getting sick of the kind of politics that's about what's the next bucket of blood that's going to be dumped on Drudge."


Drudge revels in his notoriety, the opaqueness of his methods and his ability to cause trouble. The story about the Obama photograph led to widespread condemnation of the Clinton campaign – prompting some to wonder whether it had been deliberately placed to discredit her.


Alongside his Prince Harry story, Drudge had proudly highlighted the verdict from the veteran Left-winger Jon Snow of Channel 4 News: "I never thought I'd find myself saying thank God for Drudge."


--
 

http://food.yahoo.com/

 

10 Ways to Outwit Your Appetite

You don't have to be smarter than a quiz show fifth-grader to learn how to control the urge to eat. Just follow these ingenious tips:

1. Feed it protein for breakfast. You'll be less hungry later on and end up eating 267 fewer calories during the day. At least that's what happened on days when St. Louis University researchers gave overweight women two scrambled eggs and two slices of jelly-topped toast for breakfast rather than about half that protein.

2. Make it climb a flight of stairs. At home, store the foods that tempt you most way out of reach. For instance, Cornell University food psychologist Brian Wansink, PhD, keeps his favorite soda in a basement fridge. "Half the time I'm too lazy to run down there to get it, so I drink the water in the kitchen."

3. Sleep on it. People who don't get their eight hours of zzz's experience hormonal fluctuations that increase appetite, report researchers.

4. Give it something else to think about. When scientists scanned the brains of people eating different foods, they found that the brain reacts to fat in the mouth in much the same way that the nose responds to a pleasant aroma. So if you feel a craving coming on, apply your favorite scent.

5. Never let it see a heaping plate. The more food that's in front of you, the more you'll eat. So at a restaurant, ask your waiter to pack up half of your meal before serving it to you, then eat the extras for lunch the next day.

6. Put it under the lights. You consume fewer calories at a well-lit restaurant table than you do dining in a dark corner. "In the light, you're more self-conscious and worry that other patrons are watching what you eat," explains Wansink.

7. Talk it down. Entertaining friends with a great story doesn't give you much time to eat up, so you'll probably still have food on your plate when they're done. Once they're finished, call it quits too.

8. Offer it a seat. If you sit down to snack -- and use utensils and a plate -- you'll eat fewer calories at subsequent meals.

9. Satisfy it with soup. Start lunch with about 130 calories worth of vegetable soup and you'll eat 20 percent fewer calories during lunch overall, say Penn State experts.

10. Give it little choice. Packages that contain assorted varieties of cookies, candy, dips, cheese, etc., make you want to try all the flavors. The effect is so powerful, says Wansink, that when people are given 10 colors of M&Ms to munch on, not seven, they eat 30 percent more!

Oh, and one more thing: Feeding your appetite a diverse diet that is low in calories and high in nutrients can make your RealAge as much as four years younger. Sweet.

--

 

2/19/2008 12:15 PM

 

http://www.breitbart.com/

 

Get ready for the eclipse that saved Columbus

The defeat of the Persian king Darius III by Alexander the Great in the Battle of Gaugamela in 331 BC was foretold by soothsayers when the Moon turned blood-red a few days earlier.

And an eclipse is credited with saving the life of Christopher Columbus and his crew in 1504.

Stranded on the coast of Jamaica, the explorers were running out of food and faced with increasingly hostile local inhabitants who were refusing to provide them with any more supplies.

Columbus, looking at an astronomical almanac compiled by a German mathematician, realised that a total eclipse of the Moon would occur on February 29, 1504.

He called the native leaders and warned them if they did not cooperate, he would make the Moon disappear from the sky the following night.

The warning, of course, came true, prompting the terrified people to beg Columbus to restore the Moon -- which he did, in return for as much food as his men needed. He and the crew were rescued on June 29, 1504.

 

Highest Rated Shows

Rank    Show      Year Start/End     Overall Score

1.      Heroes    2006 -    9.4

2.      House     2004 -    9.4

3.      Avatar: The Last Airbender   2005 -    9.3

4.      Firefly   2002 - 2002   9.3

5.      Prison Break 2005 -    9.3

6.      Scrubs    2001 -    9.3

7.      Stargate SG-1 1997 -    9.2

8.      Supernatural 2005 -    9.3

Supernatural stars Jensen Ackles and Jared Padalecki as Dean and Sam Winchester, two brothers who travel the country looking for their missing father and battling evil spirits along the way. Sam Winchester is a college student bound for law school, determined to escape his family's past - unlike his older brother, Dean. Ever since they were little their father has been consumed with an...

9.      Friends   1994 - 2004   9.2

10.     Dexter    2006 -    9.3

11.     24   2001 -    9.2

12.     Battlestar Galactica (2003) 2003 -    9.2

13.     Burn Notice   2007 -    9.2

While on assignment Michael Westen, a spy, receives a "burn notice" for an unspecified reason. Effectively Michael is fired. Penniless, Michael returns to his hometown in Miami and tries to get his life in order. Michael freelances his skills to earn money, hoping to find out who burned him and why. He is assisted by his friends Fiona, an ex-IRA operative, and Sam, a semi-retired spy. Burn...

14.     Arrested Development    2003 - 2006   9.2

15.     Pocket Monsters    1997 -    9.2

16.     Star Wars: The Clone Wars    2008 -    9.2

17.     Life      2007 -    9.2

Damien Lewis stars as a former police officer who, after years of false imprisonment, returns to the force with a decidedly different philosophy. Deadwood's Robin Weigert has been added to the cast of the series. She'll play the boss of Lewis' character, Lt. Davis. Brooke Langton will play the lawyer who got him out of prison that despite the fact that she is married, has a spark with Lewis.

18.     Top Gear 2002 -    9.2

19.     The Simpsons 1989 -    9.2

20.     Futurama 1999 - 2003   9.2

21.     Greek     2007 -    9.2

This show is about a super social sister and her anti-social brother who are both dealing with living the Greek life in college. The series focuses on a group of college students in and out of the fraternity and sorority system at a campus. Set at the fictitious Cyprus-Rhodes University, which focuses on the social minefield that is the Greek system. We will see the characters through this...

22.     Band of Brothers   2001 - 2001   9.2

23.     FullMetal Alchemist     2004 - 2006   9.2

24.     Pushing Daisies    2007 -    9.2

This romantic comedy shows us the strange world of a man, Ned, who can bring dead people back to life through the power of his touch. The people he touches, however, can only stay alive for one minute, and if they don't die again, someone else nearby will die. Ned decides to use his ability to solve crime. He and a local investigator, Emerson, bring murder victims back to life and find out who...

25.     Lost      2004 -    9.2

26.     Rome      2005 -    9.2

27.     CSI 2000 -    9.2

28.     Bleach    2004 -    9.2

29.     Veronica Mars 2004 - 2007   9.2

30.     The Office    2005 -    9.2

31.     Whose Line Is It Anyway?     1998 -    9.2

32.     South Park    1997 -    9.2

33.     MythBusters   2003 -    9.2

34.     Buffy the Vampire Slayer     1997 - 2003   9.2

35.     Transformers Animated   2007 -    9.2

36.     Doctor Who (2005) 2005 -    9.2

37.     Stargate Atlantis 2004 -    9.2

38.     Batman: The Animated Series 1992 - 1995   9.2

39.     Family Guy    1999 -    9.2

40.     Farscape 1999 - 2004   9.2

41.     Seinfeld 1989 - 1998   9.2

42.     Tom and Jerry 1940 - 1980   9.2

43.     Traveler 2007 - 2007   9.2

Jay, Tyler and Will have spent the last two years in grad school living together. They are about to spend their summer holiday travelling. But when Will gives Jay and Tyler a simple dare - to rollerblade through one of New York's most famous museums - it makes them prime suspects in a terrorist bombing, that seconds later, destroys the museum. They hope that Will can prove their innocence, but...

44.     The X-Files   1993 - 2002   9.2

45.     NCIS      2003 -    9.2

46.     Naruto    2002 -    9.2

47.     Grey's Anatomy     2005 -    9.1

48.     Gossip Girl   2007 -    9.1

Based on the popular book series of the same name, this drama gives viewers a peek into the world of privileged teenagers on an elite private school in New York City. The story is written by The O.C.'s Josh Schwartz and Stephanie Savage, and directed by Mark Piznarski who has worked on series like Everwood and Veronica Mars . Surface's Leighton Meester and Accepted 's Blake Lively have...

49.     The Looney Tunes Show   1988 - 2006   9.2

50.     The West Wing 1999 - 2006   9.2

51.     Babylon 5     1993 - 1999   9.2

52.     Star Trek: The Next Generation    1987 - 1994   9.2

53.     Six Feet Under     2001 - 2005   9.1

54.     Invader ZIM   2001 - 2006   9.1

55.     How I Met Your Mother   2005 -    9.1

56.     Psych     2006 -    9.1

57.     Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip     2006 - 2007   9.1

58.     Rurouni Kenshin    2003 - 2003   9.1

59.     Skins     2007 -    9.1

60.     It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia     2005 -    9.1

61.     The Daily Show     1996 -    9.1

62.     Cowboy Bebop 2001 - 2005   9.1

63.     Entourage     2004 -    9.1

64.     X-Men     1992 - 1997   9.1

65.     Justice League Unlimited     2001 - 2006   9.1

66.     Gilmore Girls 2000 - 2007   9.1

67.     One Tree Hill 2003 -    9.1

68.     The Wire 2002 -    9.1

69.     SportsCenter 1979 -    9.1

70.     The Spectacular Spider-Man   2008 -    9.1

71.     Dragon Ball Z (Uncut)   2005 - 2005   9.1

72.     Law & Order: Special Victims Unit     1999 -    9.1

73.     Boy Meets World    1993 - 2000   9.1

74.     Dragonball Z 1996 - 2003   9.1

75.     The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air 1990 - 1996   9.1

76.     Blood+    2007 -    9.1

77.     Inuyasha 2002 -    9.1

78.     Monty Python's Flying Circus      1969 - 1974   9.1

79.     Angel     1999 - 2004   9.1

"If you need help, then look no further. Angel Investigations is the best. Our rats are low... (What? It says "rats." Sorry.) Ahem... our rates are low, but our standards are high. When the chips are down, and you're at the end of your rope you need someone that you can count on. And that's what you'll find here -- someone that will go all the way, no matter what. So don't lose hope. Come on...

80.     The Money Maze     1974 - 1975   9.1

81.     I Love Lucy   1951 - 1957   9.1

82.     Yu Yu Hakusho 2002 - 2006   9.1

83.     Hustle    2004 -    9.1

84.     The Colbert Report 2005 -    9.1

85.     Fruits Basket 2001 - 2001   9.1

86.     Kenan & Kel   1996 - 2000   9.1

87.     Ouran High School Host Club 2006 - 2006   9.1

88.     Sailor Moon   1995 - 2000   9.1

89.     The Shield    2002 -    9.1

90.     Instant Star 2004 -    9.1

91.     Shrek The Halls    2007 -    9.1

92.     The Sopranos 1999 - 2007   9.1

93.     Twin Peaks    1990 - 1991   9.1

94.     Coupling 2000 - 2004   9.1

95.     Dead Like Me 2003 - 2004   9.1

96.     Rescue Me     2004 -    9.1

97.     Chappelle's Show   2003 - 2006   9.1

98.     The Lost Room 2006 -    9.1

99.     Samurai Champloo   2005 - 2007   9.1

100.    Life on Mars (UK) 2006 - 2007   9.1

 

--

 

http://science.slashdot.org/

 

New Material Can Selectively Capture CO2

Posted by Soulskill on Sunday February 17, @11:27AM
from the who-needs-plants-anyway dept.

Socguy brings us a story from CBC News about a recently developed crystal that can soak up carbon dioxide gas "like a sponge." Chemists from UCLA believe that the crystals will become a cheap, stable method to absorb emissions at power plants. We discussed a prototype for another CO2 extraction device last year. Quoting: "'The technical challenge of selectively removing carbon dioxide has been overcome,' said UCLA chemistry professor Omar Yaghi in a statement. The porous structures can be heated to high temperatures without decomposing and can be boiled in water or solvents for a week and remain stable, making them suitable for use in hot, energy-producing environments like power plants. The highly porous crystals also had what the researchers called 'extraordinary capacity for storing CO2': one litre of the crystals could store about 83 litres of CO2."

 

--

 

2/17/2008 10:32 AM

 

http://www.pcworld.com/

 

Flash Drives: The Newest Option for Digital Music

Several artists are experimenting with offering new releases on USB devices packed with extras like videos and ringtones.

NEW YORK (Billboard) - When the Mars Volta put out its latest album, "The Bedlam in Goliath," in January, the act gave its hardcore fans an option that is becoming increasingly popular -- and creative.

Instead of a CD or digital version of the Universal album, fans could buy a $30 USB drive designed like a Ouija board planchette. The device comes with a digital-rights-management-free version of the album and the promise of more bonus materials in coming months. Users simply plug it into their computer's USB drive and then listen to the album or download it into their music library.

The Mars Volta joins a growing number of recording artists who have experimented with USB releases in recent months, among them Jennifer Lopez, Ringo Starr and Matchbox Twenty.

More are expected in coming months. Austin-based All Access, the company behind USB releases from Matchbox Twenty and Starr, has signed deals with EMI, Warner Music Group and Universal Music Group to make USB bracelets for other artists.

"The selling point to the labels is a really good one -- it's a marriage between merchandise and music so that people will at least buy it instead of stealing it because they want the merchandise," All Access CEO Chris Guggenheim said. "It's the only for-sure non-stolen product."

Higher Manufacturing Costs

At this point, the releases are offered more as collectibles to build fan loyalty than as sources of revenue.

The cost of putting an album out on a USB drive is pricier than releasing it on a CD, partly because bands aren't placing bulk orders and partly because flash drives cost more than discs. Guggenheim said that bracelets generally cost $5 to $7 per unit. But costs can rise to $17 per unit or more for flash drives with more memory and other additions.

Universal doesn't expect to make money on the 2,000 USB units it put out for the Mars Volta release or on the 2,000 USB units it will put out for Erykah Badu's February 26 release, "Nu AmErykah," Universal senior vice president of digital business development Cameo Carlson said.

But it does expect to keep fans connected to both acts. Those who buy the Mars Volta USB stick get a new extra on the 29th of each month, ranging from bonus tracks to wallpaper. Badu will create new bonus features throughout the year for those who buy "Nu AmErykah" on USB.

"It's not for everybody," Carlson said. "It's for the hardcore fan that wants tons of pictures, who really wants something more and the opportunity to get new stuff every month."

For bands, USB drives offer a cooler way to get their music to fans in a souvenir package that fans can wear or carry with them, giving the band free promotion.

Starr wore a wristband containing his latest album, "Liverpool 8," to the Grammy Awards, getting attention for the release that a CD jewel case certainly wouldn't. Guggenheim said that about one wristband is sold for every three CDs of Starr's album.

In October, Matchbox Twenty released its latest album, "Exile on Mainstream," on USB bracelets, putting out an initial 25,000 units. Manager Michael Lippman said that "tens of thousands" have been sold.

Room For Extras

"USB is going to be the future," Lippman said. "You don't have to download it on a computer, you put it in and it comes up, (and) there's plenty of room to add additional material."

Some indie bands have turned to USB drives for releases because they can order fewer units and spend less money than they would for an order of 1,000 CDs, said Ed Donnelly, president of Los Angeles-based Aderra, which makes drives for Barenaked Ladies, Jars of Clay and indie bands like Los Angeles' Killola. Acts can place orders for as few as 100 USB drives preloaded with their album and other goodies.

Along with the songs from the album, Matchbox Twenty included its first video, behind-the-scenes footage, pictures and an Internet link to the band's site.

Based on the success of its album sales on USB, the band is selling bracelets of its live show at concerts during its current tour. All Access replicates the bracelets after a concert in minutes. The bracelets are quickly sent to the merchandising booths, where fans can buy a recording of the show they just saw as they leave. Each bracelet costs the same as one of the band's concert T-shirts.

Barenaked Ladies, considered the pioneers of USB releases, put out "Barenaked on a Stick" in 2005, a 128 MB flash drive loaded with 29 previously released songs plus videos and other content. The band followed it up with souvenir flash drives at its 2006 concerts in support of "Barenaked Ladies Are Me." The concert USB keys came loaded with the new album, live tracks, ringtones and videos for $25.

Willie Nelson, Jars of Clay and the Black Crowes also have sold USB bracelets at concerts.

Bands typically sell the drives to 5 percent of their audience at a show, depending on how tech-savvy the crowd is.

Reuters/Billboard

--

 

http://googlingyourself.com/

 

"Why you should Google yourself--and often"

Go hack yourself: To see what the Internet knows about you, start by going to the Google site or by using the Google toolbar. Next, either type your name in quotations or, for a more refined search, type intext: (intext with a colon) immediately followed by your name in quotes. Now type your address or phone number, and Google may turn up a church or a social group directory listing. If this doesn't surprise or outrage you, type into Google your social security number or credit card numbers.[7]

"You're only as good as Google says you are"

But if you Google "Scott Burkett," eight of the top 10 results, and most of the next 20, point to the 38-year-old chief executive of PlayMotion, a small video-game company. That's no coincidence. Over the past decade, video-game Scott has carefully nurtured his digital dossier. Why bother? "Everyone is going to see this stuff," says Burkett. "It's not just customers and investors who look you up. It's everyone." Purchase your first and last name as a Web address. Even if you don't plan to set up a Web site now, it's a good idea to park it - GoDaddy.com will let you reserve a dotcom name for $9.99 a year. Don't let someone beat you to it. Buying on the secondary market can be expensive.[8]

 

--

 

2/16/2008 4:10 PM

 

http://blog.wired.com/

 

A Tool for Turning News into Intelligence

The star of this morning’s seminar  on open-source intelligence was a slick, automated newsgathering tool. The Europe Media Monitor News Brief reads and summarizes the 24/7 output of basically every newspaper in Europe, in 23 languages, every ten minutes, and then outputs that information as straight-ahead headlines or “clusters” graphed in time and space. At right you’ll see an output option from EMM’s News Explorer, a relationship graph, autonomously generated, showing the overlapping orbits of George Lucas and Steven Spielberg. As you’d guess, one of the red guys in the middle is Harrison Ford. (What can I say? I watched the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull trailer and got all teary-eyed as soon as the theme music started playing. So Indy is on my mind.) “We’ve been tracking 200,000 individuals. For each person, we keep a record of what news articles they were mentioned in and who they were involved with,” says Clive Best, the physicist who lead the effort to build the thing for the European Joint Research Center’s Institute for Protection and Security of the Citizen.

But these sites aren’t just for news addicts or Raiders nerds.

Best says that they can also be used for disaster and health monitoring. They add to their files every ten minutes, which means you can track breaking news all over the world. Like, the software can output in a format that would be ideal for display on a giant situation-room screen. According to the EMM web site, they’re working on developing similar software to pick up blog output, and Best says they’re trying to figure out how to capture video feeds as well. It’s all public information, all put freely on the web, and its valuable enough that they have 50,000 regular users and push 500 text-message updates every day. (Can’t imagine anyone gets all of them. That could get…annoying.)

But you can imagine how useful this would be as an intelligence analysis tool. The computer sucks everything in and the analyst just plays with the data—the system talks to Google Earth, too, for mapping of events. I’ve bookmarked both sites and plan to check back often.

--

 

2/16/2008 12:58 PM

 

http://www.worldtribune.com/

 

Is the party over in China? Massive unemployment looms

China watchers are predicting a drop in the GNP growth rate this year and for the foreseeable future. Most are attributing the expected fall off this year — from last year’s official 11.4 percent, the fifth year in a row of double digit expansion — to the expected downturn in the U.S. and the world economy in general.

 

 

 

 

 

Even the 2007 growth rate wasn’t that high when compared with the peaks of the 1980s and 1990s, when GDP growth in some years surpassed 15 percent, coming out of the stagnation and even losses at the end of the Maoist era.
The downturn is going to be welcomed in some Chinese leadership quarters because of the fear of runaway inflation from an overheated economy — now fed by food shortages and the impact of the worst winter in 50 years.
 

But a look over that horizon isn’t good news either: massive unemployment is China’s continuing biggest long-term problem.

The macro-statistics look good: China's official GDP reached $3.43 trillion in 2007, the National Bureau of Statistics reported, making it the third-largest economy in the world after the United States and Japan. China is also the third-largest exporting country after the U.S. and Germany. China's foreign currency reserves are the largest in the world, driving up more than $1.4 trillion. And China appears to have shifted from a primarily agricultural country to an industrial one.

The official urban unemployment rate has typically remained around 4 percent, but that isn’t the real story. Chinese unemployment statistics do not include the laid off — and workers can be laid off for up to three years before they officially count as unemployed.

It’s now believed that urban unemployment increased by about 8 percent annually in the mid 1990s, but in the next decade the number of laid-off workers increased by around 40 percent annually with the attempt to collapse the old Soviet-style bankrupt state owned enterprises (SOEs). Nor did the officially “unemployed” include men past the age of 50 and women over 45 or those who have migrated to the cities and are thus not registered as formally urban dwellers.

The official long-term policy is for as many as 800 million people to migrate to the cities from the virtually stagnant rural areas where subsistence agriculture does not support them and is an impediment through land dispersion to a reform of agriculture.

Some foreign academics working with Chinese officials came up with a guesstimate of 15 percent of the urban population as currently unemployed. The Rand Corporation factored included those in the countryside who effectively have nothing to do and came up with a figure of 23 percent of the workforce being without a job.

So, faced with something like 300 million people without jobs, it is easy to see why, despite all the talk about inflation (and pollution), Beijing leadership will always go for growth and providing new jobs. That is true even when threatened by inflation.

What China needs to do, according to many observers, is use the downturn in growth to shift the emphasis from heavy industry and exports to domestic consumption.

“If China is able to rebalance the economy, making it less intensive in resources and capital, cleaner and more widely shared, growth of 9-10 percent a year for long periods would be the [outcome] developing countries across the world are looking for,” said Louis Kuijs of the World Bank in Beijing.

But if the downturn this year is sharp — that is, for example, if an American recession sets in and the multinationals that produce probably 60 percent of China’s exports, mostly for the U.S. and EU markets, have to cut back — painful structural reforms are probably not going to be on Beijing’s shopping list.

A whole set of new leadership takes office in March as a result of last fall’s 17th National Chinese Communist Party Congress. Incoming officials have usually spent heavily at the beginning of their terms to entrench their positions. And there is growing evidence that despite a tidal wave of new regulations and laws, the Chinese central authority has less and less control over the regional and local officials who must find their own devices to cope with problems, not the least of which is apparently growing unemployment.

--

 

2/16/2008 10:15 AM

 

http://www.pcworld.com/

 

The Web is Dangerous, Google Warns

The search site's bots find that 1 in 1000 Web pages is infected with malicious drive-by download software.

The Web is scarier than most people realize, according to research published recently by Google.

The search engine giant trained its Web crawling software on billions of Web addresses over the past year looking for malicious pages that tried to attack their visitors. They found more than 3 million of them, meaning that about one in 1,000 Web pages is malicious, according to Neils Provos, a senior staff software engineer with Google.

These Web-based attacks, called "drive-by downloads" by security experts, have become much more common in recent years as firewalls and better security practices by Microsoft have made it harder for worms and viruses to directly attack computers.

It turns out the Web's nice neighborhoods aren't necessarily safer than its red-light districts.

"We looked into this and indeed we found that if you ended up going to adult-oriented pages, your risk of being exposed [to malicious software] was slightly higher," he said. But "there really wasn't a huge difference."

"Staying away from the disreputable part of the Internet really isn't good enough," he noted.

Another interesting finding: China was far and away the greatest source of malicious Web sites. According to Google's research, 67 percent of all malware distribution sites are hosted in China. The second-worst offender? The U.S., at 15 percent, followed by Russia, (4 percent) Malaysia (2.2 percent) and Korea (2 percent).

 

2/13/2008 1:24 PM

 

http://www.salon.com/

 

Blood-and-guts politics

Old-guard feminists caterwaul for Hillary, while the "weird old coot" rattles right-wing radio. Plus: Balancing the climate debate, real "Teeth," and Suzanne Pleshette, RIP.

By Camille Paglia

Feb. 13, 2008 | Disemboweling is evidently the theme du jour. As the political wars rage in this amazingly acrimonious primary season, the skin has been ripped off the establishment in both parties, and their guts have been exposed. We're seeing the pulsing inner workings of partisan ideology as never before.

On the Republican side, conservatives marshaled by leading radio hosts have hotly rebelled against the onrushing nomination of Sen. John McCain, who has been vilified for years for his slippery positions and his schmoozing with liberals. On the Democratic side, rank-and-file party members have been shocked to discover that there is a ruling elite of 800 superdelegates, who have the power to crown the presidential nominee and who can be easily swayed or corrupted by lobbying.

The old-guard feminist establishment has also rushed out of cold storage to embrace Hillary Clinton via tremulous manifestoes of gal power that have startlingly exposed the sentimental slackness of thought that made Gloria Steinem and company wear out their welcome in the first place. Hillary's gonads must be sending out sci-fi rays that paralyze the paleo-feminist mind -- because her career, attached to her husband's flapping coattails, has sure been heavy on striking pious attitudes but ultra-light on concrete achievements.

The angst and fury boiling on talk radio, from both hosts and callers, have been truly operatic in drama and intensity. It's been a riveting spectator sport. But this eruption would come as no surprise to longtime listeners. What the mainstream press has failed to realize is that nationally syndicated hosts, such as Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham, have always drawn a very firm distinction between their views and those of the party establishment in Washington. They have consistently maintained, and supported it in detail, that they are conservatives first and Republicans second. They have fiercely denounced the party when it has strayed from conservative principles. McCain, who has co-sponsored liberal legislation and courted and flattered Beltway journalists, has been a longtime target.

This disarray among Republicans, which may depress voter turnout or even spawn a protest splinter party, offers a fantastic opening to Democrats, if the party can only seize it. The galvanizing energy aroused by Barack Obama's thrilling coast-to-coast victories gives Democrats a clear shot at regaining the White House. However, the three-faced Hillary, that queen of triangulation, would be a nice big gift to Republicans, who are itching to romp all over the Clintons' 20-volume encyclopedia of tawdry scandals.

John McCain's courage under torture during the Vietnam War deserves everyone's gratitude and respect. But as a national candidate, the stumpy, uptight McCain is a lemon. Oy, that weaselly voice and those dated locutions and stilted intonations. Who needs a weird old coot with a short fuse in the White House? This isn't a smart game plan for the war on terror.

Meanwhile, when will someone turn a punishing spotlight on the rampant abuse of absentee ballots in this and prior elections? The press was reporting before the California primary last week that there were up to 2 million absentee ballots. They presumably added to Hillary's margin in that state, because they were completed and mailed before Obama's late surge. But there needs to be far more stringent control of this questionable practice, which can be manipulated by aggressive party operatives trolling through working-class or immigrant neighborhoods.

On the climate-change front, Denis Dutton, founder of the superb Arts & Letters Daily Web site, has created a new site, Climate Debate Daily, as a forum for both sides in the ferocious controversy over global warming. The site's lucid dual format is exactly what has been needed to shed scholarly light on this heavily politicized battle, which has been very difficult to follow for everyone but fanatical true believers. Climate change, whether man-made or (as I think) natural, will remain a vital issue for decades simply because it is shaping or coercing government policy worldwide.

I was shocked to read of the recent death of Suzanne Pleshette, one of the most intelligent and underutilized actresses in Hollywood. Like the equally fierce and articulate Jessica Walters, Pleshette never quite found her niche in an industry geared to conventional female personae.

Because Pleshette died over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, the first bulletins on major online news sites, clearly being manned by 25-year-old greenhorns in the absence of senior staff, made reference only to the death of an unnamed actress who had played a "TV wife." I didn't even bother looking at first. A day later, however, as the impact hit (and vacationing cognoscenti clearly squawked), Pleshette's name was blazoned in every headline.

Pleshette loomed large in my book for the British Film Institute on Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds," where she plays a darkly lovelorn schoolteacher, Annie Hayworth, who gets cut down by a flock of crows in chaotic Bodega Bay, Calif. Pleshette's deft parry and thrust, punctuated by cigarettes, with the coolly composed Tippi Hedren, is a model of virtuoso screen acting. For the book, I used a full-page on-set candid photo of Pleshette with the caption, "Annie Hayworth may be dead, but Suzanne Pleshette lives!" She'll certainly live forever for me. Here's a fan Web site ("More than Emily Hartley") devoted to wonderfully elegant Pleshette pix, including European magazine covers.

I was very interested to read David Rieff's scathing remarks, quoted in a recent New York Times review of his new book, about Annie Leibovitz's final photographs of his mother, Susan Sontag: "carnival images of celebrity death" that "humiliated" Sontag posthumously. When the massive coffee-table book containing those photos was released in 2006, Leibovitz was given saturation star treatment by the media, including PBS, which should have known better. Although I was a longtime Sontag critic, I was appalled by the lack of protest against Leibovitz's blatant exploitation, which included Newsweek's splashing of Sontag's tarted-up corpse photo on its Web site.

Where were all the voices from the elite literati who had rushed to produce smarmy Sontag obituaries advertising their great intimacy with her (which too often consisted of seeing her preside at parties)? When I returned to Salon, after a five-year hiatus to write a book, I weighed in, but I continue to feel that this deplorable episode is symptomatic of a strange cultural vacuum in the U.S.

Speaking of Sontag, I recently viewed (via Netflix) Luis Buńuel's film "The Phantom of Liberty," which I hadn't seen since 1975, a year after it was made. To my great surprise, one amusingly surreal sequence features the seductively mysterious Italian actress Adriana Asti, playing a double role. I first saw Asti in Sontag's directorial debut, "Duet for Cannibals" (1969), which was filmed in Sweden. In 1973, when Sontag came to speak at Bennington College, where I was teaching, I privately praised Asti to her and was gratified by her warm and even libidinous response. (The general debacle of that visit is chronicled in my essay "Sontag, Bloody Sontag" in "Vamps & Tramps.")

I had no idea at the time that Sontag and Asti were an item (or that Asti was married to director Bernardo Bertolucci). According to Carl Rollyson and Lisa Paddock's biography, "Susan Sontag: The Making of an Icon" (2000), Sontag called Asti "the love of her life" and directed her in a 1979 Italian stage production of Luigi Pirandello's "As You Desire Me," into which lesbian overtones were injected.

Buńuel put Asti on glorious full display in "The Phantom of Liberty." There's a phenomenal scene where, except for black net stockings, Asti is seated nude at a piano as she vigorously plays Brahms' "Rhapsody." What wit and aplomb! And one can admire that sleek, sensuous form from every angle. Sontag sure got the goods.

Another classic film I recently ordered from Netflix was "The Sorrow and the Pity" (1972), Marcel Ophuls' four-hour documentary about the Nazi occupation of France. It's an extraordinary compilation of wartime newsreels and interviews with surviving members of that generation. With its long, sober takes in grainy black-and-white, the film accumulates power as it goes, showing the compromises and accommodations made by a majority of French citizens to the Nazi presence. Veterans of the Resistance testify too, but the overall effect is unsettling and unsavory. "Paris was a fun and crazy place," recalls an ex-Nazi of those bygone days under the swastika flag. Meanwhile, as a witness relates, France had the only government in Europe that collaborated with the Nazis and passed laws even more racist than Germany's.

A quite different film that I've recently enjoyed re-seeing and studying is "Revenge of the Sith" (2005) from George Lucas' "Star Wars" saga. The climactic light-saber duel between Anakin Skywalker and Obi-Wan Kenobi on the volcano planet of Mustafar (with footage of actual explosions and lava flows at Mount Etna in Sicily) is nearly mystically sublime in the High Romantic sense. The convulsive, manly passion between the two tortured Jedi is hyper-sustained by John Williams' powerful music. Then there's Anakin's shocking mutilation and Wagnerian immolation, leading to the grisly Frankenstein surgery that turns him into Darth Vader and that is cross-cut with a parallel hospital sequence, as Anakin's wife, Padme, dies while giving birth to the twins Luke and Leia.

It's amazing how much primal emotion Lucas is able to generate from such scenes. The finale of "Sith," with an adoptive couple tenderly cradling the infant Luke (separated from his sister) as they stand before a brilliant sunset, is reminiscent of "Gone With the Wind," produced at a time when Hollywood could speak in universal emotions (rather than cheap irony) to a mass audience. I began wondering whether only epics, with their action and drama, can now get away with deep emotion -- as "Titanic" (1997) also did, thanks to Kate Winslet's brilliant performance, for which (I cannot miss any opportunity to bang this gong) she so richly deserved -- but did not win -- the Academy Award for best actress. My eternal motto: Helen Hunt, give back Kate Winslet's Oscar!

Mitchell Lichtenstein's film "Teeth," which he wrote and directed, premiered in late January after making a sensation at last year's Sundance Film Festival, where it won an award. It's a satirical feminist horror flick. The screenplay was inspired by remarks I made in class about the ancient myth of the vagina dentata ("toothed vagina") when Mitchell was my student at Bennington in the 1970s. I loved the film, which I found extremely amusing as well as impressively produced, from photography to sound (such as the eerie atmospherics of tribal drums). I wrote some special lines for the scene in which Dawn (superbly played by Jess Weixler) surfs the Web for information on her exotic anatomy. Audiences are routinely screaming and cheering at the film's colorful castrations.

Query: I am seeking help from Salon readers in identifying a pizza parlor in New York's Greenwich Village that I visited as a small child in the early to mid-1950s. It was presumably within a few blocks of 10th Street at Bleecker, where relatives by marriage ran a grocery store. The restaurant entrance might have been a few steps below street level. One thing is certain: a narrow entrance hallway lined with harlequin-patterned wallpaper -- Commedia dell'arte figures framed in diamond shapes, as on playing cards.

 

2/8/2008 10:22 AM

http://ibdeditorial.com/

 

The Sun Also Sets

By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Thursday, February 07, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.

Related Topics: Global Warming

Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.

To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.

And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope that he calls a "stethoscope for the sun." But he and his colleagues need better equipment.

In Canada, where radio-telescopic monitoring of the sun has been conducted since the end of World War II, a new instrument, the next-generation solar flux monitor, could measure the sun's emissions more rapidly and accurately.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."

In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.

A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.

"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.

The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."

The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."

But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.

--

 

http://www.nytimes.com/

It was a notable year for the housing industry, and not in a good way.

In 2007, the median price of an American single-family home fell for the first time in at least four decades, according to the National Association of Realtors, a trade group.

The median price declined 1.8 percent to $217,800, the first annual decline since reliable records began in 1968. “It’s the first price decline in many, many years and possibly going back to the Great Depression,” said the group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

Over all, sales of previously owned single-family homes fell 13 percent in 2007, the biggest drop in a quarter-century. Last month alone, home sales dipped 2.2 percent from November, to a 4.89 million annual rate. (The group’s survey excludes newly constructed homes.)

Inventories of single-family homes and condominiums remain elevated, as the housing industry struggles to climb out of its worst downturn since the early 1990s. Though the backlog of unsold homes ticked down slightly in December, at least one economist attributed the drop to discouraged homeowners “pulling their homes off the market in the face of continued weak demand and falling prices.”

“We still have a long way to go before prices sink to levels necessary to balance supply and demand in the housing market,” the economist, Joshua Shapiro of MFR, a research firm, wrote.

Potential home buyers have stayed on the sidelines as they expect prices to drop further in 2008. Economists predict the housing market will not bottom out until the summer, and even then will remain sluggish.

--

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/

I'm the chimpion! Ape trounces the best of the human world in memory competition

When scientists found out that chimps had better memories than students, there were unkind comments about the calibre of the human competition they faced.

But now an ape has gone one better, trouncing British memory champion Ben Pridmore.

Ayumu, a seven-year-old male brought up in captivity in Japan, did three times as well as Mr Pridmore at a computer game which involved remembering the position of numbers on a screen.

And that's no mean feat - the 30-year-old accountant from Derby is capable of memorising the order of a shuffled pack of cards in under 30 seconds.

Both chimp and man watched a computer screen on which five numbers flashed up at various positions before being obscured by white squares.

They then had to touch the squares in order of the numbers they concealed, from lowest to highest. When the numbers were shown for just a fifth of a second - the blink of an eye - Ayumu got it right almost 90 per cent of the time.
 

His human opponent scored a rather less impressive 33 per cent, Channel Five programme Extraordinary Animals will reveal.

Mr Pridmore, who spends his evenings memorising 400-digit numbers, ruefully acknowledged that he had met his match.

"I'd rather not be seen on TV doing worse than a chimpanzee in a memory-test," he said. "I'll never live it down!"

The TV tests follow scientific experiments which pitted Ayumu, along with several other young chimps, against a group of university students.

Ayumu was the clear champion, doing twice as well as the humans.

It is thought that young chimps are blessed with photographic memories, allowing them to remember patterns and sequences with amazing accuracy.

Professor Tetsuro Matsuzawa, the Kyoto University researcher behind both sets of experiments, said: "People still believe that humans are superior to chimpanzees in any domain of intelligence.

"That is the prejudice of the people.

"Chimpanzees can be clever in a specific task in comparison to humans."

 

1/26/2008 10:24 AM

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/

Kinky Sex, Shocking Death

Pennsylvania man charged with electrocuting wife during nip zip

JANUARY 25--A kinky sex escapade ended this week with the electrocution death of a Pennsylvania woman and the arrest of her husband for manslaughter. According to cops, Toby Taylor, 37, first claimed that his wife Kirsten was shocked by her hair dryer. But he then admitted that the couple was "into weird sexual behaviors," according to a probable cause affidavit. Taylor then explained that he hooks clips to his wife's nipples and "plugs the cord into a electric strip" and shocks her. On Wednesday evening, Taylor said, Kirsten removed her clothes, attached the clips, and shocked herself. He then picked up the electric strip and shocked her several more times, adding that he had placed a piece of electric tape over her mouth during the jolts. After the last shock, Kirsten, 29, "fell over on to her face." Taylor initially thought his wife was joking, but quickly realized she was unconscious. He then dressed her in preparation for driving to the hospital, but instead called 911 when she stopped breathing. Taylor, pictured in the below mug shot, told investigators that the couple had "been engaging in electric shock sex and other types of extreme bondage for about 2 years." He was charged yesterday with involuntary manslaughter and reckless endangerment and was jailed in the York Count lockup (where he remains in custody on $100,000 bail). (3 pages)

--

 

1/24/2008 10:47 AM

 

http://www.ft.com/

 

The worst market crisis in 60 years

By George Soros

Published: January 22 2008 19:57 | Last updated: January 22 2008 19:57

The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years.

However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.

Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit and always involve a bias or misconception. This is usually a failure to recognise a reflexive, circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral. Ease of credit generates demand that pushes up the value of property, which in turn increases the amount of credit available. A bubble starts when people buy houses in the expectation that they can refinance their mortgages at a profit. The recent US housing boom is a case in point. The 60-year super-boom is a more complicated case.

Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism. Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from breaking down, not the markets themselves. Nevertheless, market fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current account deficit.

Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared.

The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility.

Everything that could go wrong did. What started with subprime mortgages spread to all collateralised debt obligations, endangered municipal and mortgage insurance and reinsurance companies and threatened to unravel the multi-trillion-dollar credit default swap market. Investment banks’ commitments to leveraged buyouts became liabilities. Market-neutral hedge funds turned out not to be market-neutral and had to be unwound. The asset-backed commercial paper market came to a standstill and the special investment vehicles set up by banks to get mortgages off their balance sheets could no longer get outside financing. The final blow came when interbank lending, which is at the heart of the financial system, was disrupted because banks had to husband their resources and could not trust their counterparties. The central banks had to inject an unprecedented amount of money and extend credit on an unprecedented range of securities to a broader range of institutions than ever before. That made the crisis more severe than any since the second world war.

Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to realize that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster, the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.

Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management

--

 

http://news.cnet.com/

Carbon nanotube carpet darkest thing ever made

A loosely packed "carpet" of carbon nanotubes is the darkest material ever made, according to researchers from Rice University and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

This resulted in a material that reflects only 0.045 percent of the light that strikes it. (Put another way, 99.955 percent of the light that hits it gets absorbed.)

The nanocarpet is in the middle. Former record holder to the left.

 

1/22/2008 8:58 AM

 

http://www.reuters.com/

"Help Wanted" highlights skills drain in U.S

By Joanne Morrison

TRAFFORD, Pennsylvania (Reuters) - Only half the machines are running at precision parts maker Hamill Manufacturing, nestled in the Allegheny Mountains just east of Pittsburgh, once the booming center of the U.S. steel industry.

But the factory's overcapacity is the result not of a shortage of business -- it has more orders than it can fill, despite a slowing U.S. economy -- but because of a shortage of skilled workers.

"I'd hire 10 machinists right now if I could," said John Dalrymple, president of the company, which makes high-end parts for military helicopters and nuclear submarines. "That's eight to 10 percent of our workforce."

While millions of jobs making everything from textiles to steel have moved to new powerhouses like China in recent years, precision manufacturing remains a crucial niche in the United States, one that is overworked and chronically understaffed.

And, in a bad sign for the United States and its declining economic might, that shortage of skilled workers is likely to get worse as Baby Boomers retire -- with no younger generation of manufacturing workers to take the baton.

"Our workforce is an aging workforce," said Chief Executive Jeff Kelly, whose father founded Hamill nearly 60 years ago. "There isn't a queue of people lining up to come into the industry."

Some 20 percent of small to medium-sized manufacturers -- those with up to 2,000 workers -- cited retaining or training employees as their No. 1 concern, according to a survey by the National Association of Manufacturers. The survey was carried out in 2007 but has not been published yet.

A separate study in 2005, the latest available, said 90 percent of manufacturers are suffering a moderate to severe shortage of qualified workers.

--

 

1/15/2008 10:12 AM

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/

Subprime Nation

Since it began to give credit ratings to nations in 1917, Moody's has rated the United States triple-A. U.S. Treasury bonds have been seen as the most secure investment on earth. When crises erupt, nervous money seeks out the world's great safe harbor, the United States. That reputation is now in peril.

Last week, Moody's warned that if the United States fails to rein in the soaring cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the nation's credit rating will be down-graded within a decade.

Our political parties seem oblivious. Republicans, save Ron Paul, are all promising to expand the U.S. military and maintain all of our worldwide commitments to defend and subsidize scores of nations.

Democrats, with entitlement costs drowning the federal budget in red ink, are proposing a new entitlement – universal health coverage for the near 50 million who do not have it – another magnet for illegal aliens. Moody's is telling America it needs a time of austerity, while the U.S. government is behaving like the governments we used to bail out.

(Column continues below)

California has already hit the wall. With an economy as large as a G-8 nation, the Golden State is looking at a $14 billion deficit in 2009 and a $3 billion shortfall in 2008. Gov. Schwarzenegger has called for slashing prison staff by 6,000, including 2,000 guards, early release of 22,000 inmates, closing four dozen state parks and a 10 percent across-the-board cut in all state agencies. The Democratic legislature is demanding tax hikes, which would drive more taxpayers back over the mountains whence their fathers came.

Meanwhile, Washington drifts mindlessly toward the maelstrom. With the dollar sinking, oil surging to $100 a barrel, the Dow having its worst January in memory, foreclosures mounting, credit card debt going rotten, and consumers and businesses unable or unwilling to borrow, we appear headed into recession.

If so, tax revenue will fall and spending on unemployment will surge. The price of the stimulus packages both parties are preparing will further add to the deficit and further imperil the U.S. credit rating. This all comes in the year that the first of the baby boomers, born in 1946, reach early retirement and eligibility for Social Security.

To stave off recession, the Fed appears anxious to slash interest rates another half-point, if not more. That will further weaken the dollar and raise the costs of the imports to which we have become addicted. While all this is bad news for the Republicans, it is worse news for the republic. As we save nothing, we must borrow both to pay for the imported oil and foreign manufactures upon which we have become dependent.

We are thus in the position of having to borrow from Europe to defend Europe, of having to borrow from China and Japan to defend Chinese and Japanese access to Gulf oil, and of having to borrow from Arab emirs, sultans and monarchs to make Iraq safe for democracy.

We borrow from the nations we defend so that we may continue to defend them. To question this is an unpardonable heresy called "isolationism."

And the chickens of globalism are coming home to roost.

We let Europe to get away with imposing value-added taxes averaging 15 percent on our exports to them, while they rebate that value-added tax on their exports to us. Thus, the euro has almost doubled in value against the dollar in the Bush years, as NATO Europe begins to bail out on Iraq and Afghanistan.

We sat still as Japan protected her markets and dumped high quality goods into ours and China undervalued its currency to suck jobs, technology and factories out of the United States. Now, China and Japan have $2 trillion in cash reserves. The Arabs have an equal amount of petrodollars. Both are headed here to spend their depreciating dollars snapping up U.S. assets – banks, ports, highways, defense contractors.

America, to pay her bills, has begun to sell herself to the world.

Its balance sheet gutted by the subprime mortgage crisis, Citicorp got a $7.5 billion injection from Abu Dhabi and is now fishing for $1 billion from Kuwait and $9 billion from China. Beijing has put $5 billion into Morgan Stanley and bought heavily into Barclays Bank.

Merrill-Lynch, ravaged by subprime mortgage losses, sold part of itself to Singapore for $7.5 billion and is seeking another $3 billion to $4 billion from the Arabs. Swiss-based UBS, taking a near $15 billion write-down in subprime mortgages, has gotten an infusion of $10 billion from Singapore.

Bain Capital is partnering with China's Huawei Technologies in a buyout of 3Com, the U.S. company that provides the technology that protects Pentagon computers from Chinese hackers.

This self-indulgent generation has borrowed itself into unpayable debt. Now the folks from whom we borrowed to buy all that oil and all those cars, electronics and clothes are coming to buy the country we inherited. We are prodigal sons, and the day of reckoning approaches.

--

 

1/14/2008 8:27 AM

http://www.computersight.com/

10 Strange Keyboards

--

 

1/4/2008 10:48 AM

 

http://science.slashdot.org/

Did Insects Kill the Dinosaurs?

Ponca City, We Love You writes "Asteroid impacts, massive volcanic flows, and now biting, disease-carrying insects have been put forward as an important contributor to the demise of the dinosaurs. In the Late Cretaceous the world was covered with warm-temperate to tropical areas that swarmed with blood-sucking insects. A theory explored by researchers at Oregon State suggests these bugs carried leishmania, malaria, intestinal parasites, arboviruses and other pathogens. Repeated epidemics may have slowly-but-surely worn down dinosaur populations while ticks, mites, lice and biting flies tormented and weakened them. 'After many millions of years of evolution, mammals, birds and reptiles have evolved some resistance to these diseases,' says Researcher George Poinar. 'But back in the Cretaceous, these diseases were new and invasive, and vertebrates had little or no natural or acquired immunity to them.' The confluence of new insect-spread diseases, loss of traditional food sources, and competition for plants by insect pests could all have provided a lingering, debilitating condition that dinosaurs were ultimately unable to overcome."

--

 

http://www.wired.com/

 

David Byrne's Survival Strategies for Emerging Artists — and Megastars

--

 

http://www.wired.com/

Big Bang or Big Goof? Astronomer Challenges 'Seeds' Proof

--

 

1/3/2008 11:24 AM

 

http://en.rian.ru/

 

A cold spell soon to replace global warming

MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) – Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.

Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.

The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.

This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.

It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizations—in particular, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Signed by 150 countries, it exemplifies the impact of scientific delusion on big politics and economics. The authors and enthusiasts of the Kyoto Protocol based their assumptions on an erroneous idea. As a result, developed countries waste huge amounts of money to fight industrial pollution of the atmosphere. What if it is a Don Quixote’s duel with the windmill?

Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming. At any rate, there is no scientific evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is too simple to be true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes are on in the atmosphere, especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is not so much radiated in space as carried by air currents—an entirely different mechanism, which cannot cause global warming.

The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions—a point proved theoretically and empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice shield, taken with bore specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research station Vostok, show that there are close links between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we cannot be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect.

Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide concentration changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the greatest carbon dioxide depository, with concentrations 60-90 times larger than in the atmosphere. When the ocean’s surface warms up, it produces the “champagne effect.” Compare a foamy spurt out of a warm bottle with wine pouring smoothly when served properly cold.

Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which evaporates to add to industrial pollution—a factor we cannot deny. However, man-caused pollution is negligible here. If industrial pollution with carbon dioxide keeps at its present-day 5-7 billion metric tons a year, it will not change global temperatures up to the year 2100. The change will be too small for humans to feel even if the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions doubles.

Carbon dioxide cannot be bad for the climate. On the contrary, it is food for plants, and so is beneficial to life on Earth. Bearing out this point was the Green Revolution—the phenomenal global increase in farm yields in the mid-20th century. Numerous experiments also prove a direct proportion between harvest and carbon dioxide concentration in the air.

Carbon dioxide has quite a different pernicious influence—not on the climate but on synoptic activity. It absorbs infrared radiation. When tropospheric air is warm enough for complete absorption, radiation energy passes into gas fluctuations. Gas expands and dissolves to send warm air up to the stratosphere, where it clashes with cold currents coming down. With no noticeable temperature changes, synoptic activity skyrockets to whip up cyclones and anticyclones. Hence we get hurricanes, storms, tornados and other natural disasters, whose intensity largely depends on carbon dioxide concentration. In this sense, reducing its concentration in the air will have a positive effect.

Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Man’s influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.
 

Earth is unlikely to ever face a temperature disaster. Of all the planets in the solar system, only Earth has an atmosphere beneficial to life. There are many factors that account for development of life on Earth: Sun is a calm star, Earth is located an optimum distance from it, it has the Moon as a massive satellite, and many others. Earth owes its friendly climate also to dynamic feedback between biotic and atmospheric evolution.

The principal among those diverse links is Earth’s reflective power, which regulates its temperature. A warm period, as the present, increases oceanic evaporation to produce a great amount of clouds, which filter solar radiation and so bring heat down. Things take the contrary turn in a cold period.

What can’t be cured must be endured. It is wise to accept the natural course of things. We have no reason to panic about allegations that ice in the Arctic Ocean is thawing rapidly and will soon vanish altogether. As it really is, scientists say the Arctic and Antarctic ice shields are growing. Physical and mathematical calculations predict a new Ice Age. It will come in 100,000 years, at the earliest, and will be much worse than the previous. Europe will be ice-bound, with glaciers reaching south of Moscow.

Meanwhile, Europeans can rest assured. The Gulf Stream will change its course only if some evil magic robs it of power to reach the north—but Mother Nature is unlikely to do that.

Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

--

 

http://www.edge.org/

Don't be afraid of dangerous ideas;
Every era has its taboos. Let's champion free inquiry and debate
Margaret Wente

Who's the most odious man in the world today? Some people might name Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who denies the Holocaust ever happened and seems quite happy at the thought of unleashing nukes against the Jews. These unsavoury views didn't deter Columbia University from issuing him an invitation to speak on campus. The university's president, Lee Bollinger, described the event as part of "Columbia's long-standing tradition of serving as a major forum for robust debate."

Or perhaps it's Larry Summers, the man who created such a storm with his remarks about women and science that he had to step down as president of Harvard. This week, he was disinvited from a regents' dinner at the University of California, where he was going to speak, after a bunch of faculty members protested that his views were too repellent. "I was appalled and stunned that someone like Summers would even be invited to speak to the regents," said biology professor Maureen Stanton, who helped put together a petition drive. "I think many of us who were involved in the protest believed that it wouldn't reflect well on the university that he even received the invitation."

So much for the notion that our universities are supposed to champion fearless free inquiry and debate. Obviously some ideas - such as the idea that innate differences between men and women might affect their aptitudes and career preferences - are too dangerous to even have.

The renowned psychologist Steven Pinker (whose new book is reviewed in today's Books section) recently got to thinking about some of the other ideas that are too dangerous to discuss. In an essay first posted at Edge (www.Edge.org), he wrote: "By 'dangerous ideas' I don't have in mind harmful technologies, like those behind weapons of mass destruction, or evil ideologies, like those of racist, fascist or other fanatical cults. I have in mind statements of fact or policy that are defended with evidence and argument by serious scientists and thinkers but which are felt to challenge the collective decency of an age."

 

1/1/2008 2:32 PM

 

http://www.edge.org/

 

Good Old Stuff Sucks

In the 90's I was praising the remarkable grassroots success of the building preservation movement. Keep the fabric and continuity of the old buildings and neighborhoods alive! Revive those sash windows.

As a landlocked youth in Illinois I mooned over the yacht sales pictures in the back of sailboat books. I knew what I wanted — a gaff-rigged ketch! Wood, of course.

The Christmas mail order catalog people know what my age group wants (I'm 69). We want to give a child wooden blocks, Monopoly or Clue, a Lionel train. We want to give ourselves a bomber jacket, a fancy leather belt, a fine cotton shirt. We study the Restoration Hardware catalog. My own Whole Earth Catalog, back when, pushed no end of retro stuff in a back-to-basics agenda.

Well, I bought a sequence of wooden sailboats. Their gaff rigs couldn't sail to windward. Their leaky wood hulls and decks were a maintenance nightmare. I learned that the fiberglass hulls we'd all sneered at were superior in every way to wood.

Remodeling an old farmhouse two years ago and replacing its sash windows, I discovered the current state of window technology. A standard Andersen window, factory-made exactly to the dimensions you want, has superb insulation qualities; superb hinges, crank, and lock; a flick-in, flick-out screen; and it looks great. The same goes for the new kinds of doors, kitchen cabinetry, and even furniture feet that are available — all drastically improved.

The message finally got through. Good old stuff sucks. Sticking with the fine old whatevers is like wearing 100% cotton in the mountains; it's just stupid.

Give me 100% not-cotton clothing, genetically modified food (from a farmers' market, preferably), this-year's laptop, cutting-edge dentistry and drugs.

The Precautionary Principle tells me I should worry about everything new because it might have hidden dangers. The handwringers should worry more about the old stuff. It's mostly crap.

(New stuff is mostly crap too, of course. But the best new stuff is invariably better than the best old stuff.)

--

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.a47.info/